Cancer mortality in former East and West Germany: a story of unification?

Forecasting the mortality burden of coronary heart disease and stroke in Germany: National trends and regional inequalities

BACKGROUND

The decline of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has slowed in many countries, including Germany. We examined the implications of this trend for future coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in Germany considering persistent mortality inequalities between former East and West Germany.

METHODS

We retrieved demographic and mortality data from 1991 to 2019 from the German Federal Statistical Office. Using a Bayesian age-period-cohort framework, we projected CHD and stroke mortality from 2019 to 2035, stratified by sex and German region. We decomposed annual changes in deaths into three components (mortality rates, population age structure and population size) and assessed regional inequalities with age-sex-standardized mortality ratios.

RESULTS

We confirmed that declines of CVD mortality rates in Germany will likely stagnate. From 2019 to 2035, we projected fewer annual CHD deaths (114,600 to 103,500 [95%-credible interval: 81,700; 134,000]) and an increase in stroke deaths (51,300 to 53,700 [41,400; 72,000]). Decomposing past and projected mortality, we showed that population ageing was and is offset by declining mortality rates. This likely reverses after 2030 leading to increased CVD deaths thereafter. Inequalities between East and West declined substantially since 1991 and are projected to stabilize for CHD but narrow for stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD deaths in Germany likely keep declining until 2030, but may increase thereafter due to population ageing if the reduction in mortality rates slows further. East-West mortality inequalities for CHD remain stable but may converge for stroke. Underlying risk factor trends need to be monitored and addressed by public health policy.

Cancer Patients' Survival According to Socioeconomic Environment in a High-Income Country with Universal Health Coverage

Simple Summary

The main aim of our paper was to quantify the potential impact of socioeconomic environment on cancer patients’ survival in Slovenia in the 21st century. Despite of universal health coverage and after accounting for basic demographic variables (age and gender), differences in stage at diagnosis, as well as the impact of the cancer treatment improvements over time, we show that cancer patients in Slovenia who have a lower socioeconomic status experience worse survival and increased mortality. The results of this analysis could help decision-makers to better understand inequalities in cancer burden and inform the development of policies to improve or resolve them.

Abstract

Despite having an established systematic approach to population survival estimation in Slovenia, the influence of socioeconomic environment on cancer patients’ survival has not yet been evaluated. Thus, the main aim of our study was to quantify the potential impact of socioeconomic environment on cancer patients’ survival in our population in the 21st century. The net survival was calculated and stratified into quintiles of Slovenian version of the European Deprivation Index for all adult cancer patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2018 using the national cancer registry data. After accounting for basic demographic variables (age and gender), differences in stage at diagnosis, as well as the impact of the cancer treatment improvements over time, we found that cancer patients in Slovenia with lower socioeconomic status experience worse survival and have higher mortality. In particular, the odds of dying from oral, stomach, colorectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, breast, ovarian, corpus uteri, prostate, and bladder cancers, as well as for melanoma, leukemia, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, are significantly higher in the socioeconomically most deprived group of patients compared to the most affluent group. The inequalities in cancer burden we found could help decision-makers to better understand the magnitude of this problem.

Predictors of the regional variation of prostatectomy or radiotherapy: evidence from German cancer registries

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of public health parameters with the regional variation in the initial treatment for prostate cancer.

METHODS

We used data from German epidemiologic cancer registries for the years 2009-2013. Presence of a certified cancer center, a radiotherapy and/or urology institution, the district-specific GDP, and population density were used as predictors. Patients with indication for adjuvant treatment were excluded (T3b). Only districts with defined quality criteria were eligible. We used general linear mixed models (equivalent to logistic regression) with a covariance matrix weighted by the Euclidean distances between districts. Models were adjusted for age, grading, and TNM stage. We performed sensitivity analyses by imputing missing data with multiple imputation and considering extreme case scenarios. We applied inverse probability weighting to account for missing values.

RESULTS

When radiotherapy/surgery is compared to neither treatment, the probability for the latter was higher in East than in West Germany (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.43-2.02). The same was true for districts with both, a radiotherapy and urologic treatment facility (OR 1.43, 1.19-1.72). Analyzing radiotherapy vs. surgery, the probability for prostatectomy was inversely associated with the presence of a radiotherapy unit when compared to districts with neither treatment facility (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.38-0.73). Patients treated in East Germany were more likely to receive a surgical treatment (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08-1.66). Sensitivity analyses revealed no relevant change of effect estimates.

CONCLUSION

Treatment differs between East and West Germany and is associated with the presence of a radiotherapy or urology clinic.

The Burden, Future Trends, And Economic Impact Of Lung Cancer In Saudi Arabia

Background

Incidence of cancer in Saudi Arabia has increased for the last two decades, ratcheting up to global levels. Yet, there is a dearth of research on the burden of lung cancer. This study examined the association between new cases of lung cancer and factors such as gender, age, and year of diagnosis; and forecast new cases and extrapolated future economic burden to 2030.

Methods

This a national-level cohort study that utilized the Saudi Cancer Registry data from 1999 to 2013. Multivariate regression was used; new lung cancer cases forecast and economic burden extrapolated to 20130. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of a range of epidemiologic and economic factors on the economic burden.

Results

Of the 166,497 new cancer cases (1999–2013), 3.8% was lung cancer. Males and Saudis had over threefold higher cases compared with females and non-Saudis, respectively. While the age group ≥65 years had 1.14 times or 14% increase in new cases, under-30 years had 97.2% fewer cases compared with age group 45–59. Compared with 1999, the period 2011–2013 had a 106% average increase. The years 2002–2010 registered an average 50% rise in new cases compared to 1999. New cases would rise to 1058 in 2030, an upsurge of 87% from 2013. The future economic burden was estimated at $2.49 billion in 2015 value, of which $520 million was attributable to care management and $1.97 billion in lost productivity. The economic burden for the period 2015–2030 will be $50.16 billion. The present value of this burden in 2015 values will be $34.60 billion, of which 21% will be attributable to care management. Estimates were robust to uncertainty, but the aged-standardized rate and 5-year survival rate would account for much of the variability compared with the economic factors.

Conclusion

Findings reveal an upsurge of lung cancer burden in incidence and potential economic burden, which may inform cancer control measures.

Avoidable Cancer Mortality in Germany Since Reunification: Regional Variation and Sex Differences

Background: Regional comparisons of cancer-related mortality in Germany are traditionally focused on disparities between East and West Germany. Recent improvements in all-cause and cancer-related mortality show a diverse regional pattern beyond the known East-West mortality divide. A generalized approach of the avoidable/amenable cancer mortality definition is applied for suitable regional comparisons of long-term trends. Methods: Standardized death rates of preventable and amenable cancer mortality for men and women were computed for the period 1990-2014 to observe sex-specific excess mortality due to specific cancers after the German reunification. For regional comparison, three German super regions were defined in Eastern, Northwestern, and Southwestern Germany to account for similarities in long-term regional premature and cancer-related mortality patterns, socioeconomic characteristics, and age structure. Results: Since preventable and amenable cancer mortality rates typically have driven the recent trends in premature mortality, our findings underline the current regional pattern of preventable cancer mortality for males with disadvantages for Eastern Germany, and advantages for Southwestern Germany. Among women, the preventable cancer mortality has increased in Northwestern and Southwestern Germany after the German reunification but has decreased in Eastern Germany and converged to the pattern of Southwestern Germany. Similar patterns can be observed for females in amenable cancer mortality. Conclusions: Although the "traditional" East-West gap in preventable cancer mortality was still evident in males, our study provides some hints for more regional diversity in avoidable cancer mortality in women. An establishing north-south divide in avoidable cancer mortality could alter the future trends in regional cancer-related mortality in Germany.

Early motor function after local treatment of brain metastases in the motor cortex region with stereotactic radiotherapy/radiosurgery or microsurgical resection: a retrospective study of two consecutive cohorts

Background

We compared the functional outcome and influential factors of two standard treatment modalities for central cerebral metastases: electrophysiological-controlled microsurgical resection (MSR) and stereotactic radiotherapy/stereotactic radiosurgery (SRT/SRS).

Methods

We performed a database search for central metastasis treatments during the period from January 2008 to September 2012 in two clinical registers: 1) register for intraoperative neuromonitoring (Department of Neurosurgery), and 2) prospective database for SRT/SRS (Department of Radiotherapy). Neurological status before and after treatment, Karnofsky performance index (KPI), histology, tumor localization and volume, and oncological status were standardized and pooled together for analysis. Muscle strength was graded on a scale of 0–5.

Results

We identified 27 MSR and 41 SRT/SRS cases from 68 treatments. The MSR-treated patients had significant less muscle strength in the upper and lower extremities before and after the treatment as compared to the patients receiving SRT/SRS. Muscle strength of the extremities did not change for patients receiving SRT/SRS, while MSR patients had significant improvement in lower extremity muscle strength (p = 0.05) and a non-significant improvement in the upper extremities. MSR showed significant improvement in hemiparesis as compared to radiotherapy, but this was accompanied with a significant deterioration of extremity muscle strength after surgery, as compared to SRT/SRS (improvement p = 0.04, deterioration p = 0.10).

Conclusion

Electrophysiologically guided microsurgery of central metastases had a significantly better functional outcome regarding hemiparesis. However, there was also a trend for less secondary neurological deterioration after SRT/SRS.

Trial registration

ISRCTN81776764. Retrospectively Registered 27 July 2017.

Budget impact analysis of gene expression tests to aid therapy decisions for breast cancer patients in Germany

OBJECTIVES

Many women with early-stage, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer may not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Gene expression tests can reduce chemotherapy over- and undertreatment by providing prognostic information on the likelihood of recurrence and, with Oncotype DX, predictive information on chemotherapy benefit. These tests are currently not reimbursed by German healthcare payers. An analysis was conducted to evaluate the budget impact of gene expression tests in Germany.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Costs of gene expression tests and medical and non-medical costs associated with treatment were assessed from healthcare payer and societal perspectives. Costs were estimated from data collected at a university hospital and were combined with decision impact data for Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, Prosigna and EndoPredict (EPclin). Changes in chemotherapy use and budget impact were evaluated over 1 year for 20,000 women.

RESULTS

Chemotherapy was associated with substantial annual costs of EUR 19,003 and EUR 84,412 per therapy from the healthcare payer and societal perspective, respectively. Compared with standard care, only Oncotype DX was associated with cost savings to healthcare payers and society (EUR 5.9 million and EUR 253 million, respectively). Scenario analysis showed that both women at high clinical but low genomic risk and low clinical but high genomic risk were important contributors to costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Oncotype DX was the only gene expression test that was estimated to reduce costs versus standard care in Germany. The reimbursement of Oncotype DX testing in standard clinical practice in Germany should be considered.