Risk stratification system to predict recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after hepatic resection

Anatomical sectionectomy based on Takasaki's segmentation for solitary intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a propensity-matched analysis

BACKGROUND

Anatomical sectionectomy based on Takasaki's segmentation has shown advantages in hepatocellular carcinoma. However, whether this approach improves the survival of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains unknown.

METHODS

A series of 248 consecutive patients with solitary ICCs who underwent hepatectomy were studied retrospectively. The patients were classified into the groups of anatomical sectionectomy based on Takasaki's segmentation (TS group) and non-Takasaki's hepatectomy (NTH group). The bias between the two groups was minimized using propensity score matching (PSM). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated with Kaplan-Meier analysis. The Cox proportional hazards model was performed to determine the adverse risk factors associated with survival.

RESULTS

After PSM, 67 pairs of patients were compared. Both the RFS and OS rates in the TS group were significantly better than those in the NTH group (23.2 % vs. 16.5 %, and 40.4 % vs. 27.3 %, P = 0.035 and 0.032, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that NTH was independently associated with worse RFS and OS than TS. The stratified analysis demonstrated that the RFS and OS rates in the TS group with tumor stage I and tumor size ≥3 cm were significantly better than those in the NTH group, while the survival rates for ICC with stage I and tumor size <3 cm or stage II-III showed no significant difference.

CONCLUSION

TS was associated with improved RFS and OS in patients with solitary ICC even after PSM. TS may be preferred particularly in patients with tumor stage I and tumor size ≥3 cm.

MRI for Hepatitis B-Associated Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Multicenter Comparative Study

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is challenging in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients, due to the overlapping clinical manifestations and atypical imaging patterns compared to patients without HBV.

PURPOSE

To investigate the preoperative imaging characteristics of iCCA in patients with HBV in comparison to those without HBV.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

SUBJECTS

431 patients with histopathologically confirmed iCCA (143 HBV-positive and 288 HBV-negative patients) were retrospectively enrolled from three institutes, and patients were allocated to the training (n = 302) and validation (n = 129) cohorts from different institutes or time period; 100 matching HBV-positive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients were also enrolled.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

1.5-T and 3-T, including T1- and T2-weighted, diffusion-weighted and dynamic gadopentetate dimeglumine-enhanced imaging.

ASSESSMENT

Clinical and MRI features were analyzed and compared between HBV-positive and HBV-negative patients with iCCA, and between HBV-positive patients with iCCA and HCC.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses with odds ratio (OR) to identify independent features for discriminating HBV-associated iCCA. Diagnostic model generation by incorporating independent features, and the performance for discrimination was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics with the area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). AUCs were compared by the DeLong's method. A P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Compared to patients without HBV, washout or degressive enhancement pattern (OR = 51.837), well-defined tumor margin (OR = 8.758) and no peritumoral bile duct dilation (OR = 4.651) were independent significant features for discriminating HBV-associated iCCAs. All these features were also the predominant MRI manifestations for HBV-associated HCC. The combined index showed an AUC of 0.798 (95% CI 0.748-0.842) in the training cohort and an AUC of 0.789 (95% CI 0.708-0.856) in the validation cohort for discrimination. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were all >70%, which was superior to each single feature alone in both cohorts. [Correction added after first online publication on 29 June 2023. The Field Strength/Sequence has been updated from 5-T to 1.5-T.] DATA CONCLUSION: Preoperative MRI may help to discriminate HBV-associated iCCA.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 2.

Mechanism of postoperative recurrence and metastasis of intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma and clinical prevention and treatment strategy

Intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma is a primary adenocarcinoma originating from intrahepatic bile duct epithelial cells. The tumor has no capsule. At the early stage of the tumor, there are infiltration and metastasis along the lymphatic vessels, blood vessels, perineural space, and loose fibrous connective tissue, which are characterized by lymph node metastasis. Due to the absence of characteristic clinical manifestations and the lack of specific molecular markers for early diagnosis, the surgical resection rate is low and the postoperative tumor recurrence and metastasis rate is high. Low efficacy of chemoradiotherapy, molecular targeted drugs, and immunotherapy results in the poor prognosis. Further research of molecular pathology, gene function, and imaging technology can help elucidate the occurrence, recurrence, and metastasis mechanism of intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma to improve its early diagnosis rate and precise clinical staging. Individualized precision treatment and prevention for the risk factors to reduce the recurrence and metastasis rate postoperatively are key to improving the patient prognosis.

Call to Improve the Quality of Prediction Tools for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Resection: A Critical Appraisal, Systematic Review, and External Validation Study

Objective

To conduct a systematic review, critical appraisal, and external validation of survival prediction tools for patients undergoing intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) resection.

Summary background data

Despite the development of several survival prediction tools in recent years for patients undergoing iCCA resections, there is a lack of critical appraisal and external validation of these models.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and critical appraisal of survival and recurrence prediction models for patients undergoing curative-intent iCCA resections. Studies were evaluated based on their model design, risk of bias, reporting, performance, and validation results. We identified the best model and externally validated it using our institution's data.

Results

This review included a total of 31 studies, consisting of 26 studies with original prediction tools and 5 studies that only conducted external validations. Among the 26, 54% of the studies conducted internal validations, 46% conducted external validations, and only 1 study scored a low risk of bias. Harrell's C-statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.76 for internal validation and from 0.64 to 0.75 for external validation. Only 81% of the studies reported model calibration. Our external validation of the best model (Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma [ICC]-Metroticket) estimated Harrell's and Uno's C-statistics of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.56-0.77) and Uno's time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.53-0.88), with a Brier score of 0.20 (95% CI: 0.15-0.26) and good calibration plots.

Conclusions

Many prediction models have been published in recent years, but their quality remains poor, and minimal methodological quality improvement has been observed. The ICC-Metroticket was selected as the best model (Uno's time-dependent AUC of 0.71) for 5-year overall survival prediction in patients undergoing curative-intent iCCA resection.

Artificial intelligence CT radiomics to predict early recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a multicenter study

OBJECTIVES

In this multicenter study, we sought to develop and validate a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence (ER) risk after curative resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) through artificial intelligence (AI)-based CT radiomics approach.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 311 patients (Derivation: 160; Internal and two external validations: 36, 74 and 61) from 8 medical centers who underwent curative resection were collected retrospectively. In derivation cohort, radiomics and clinical-radiomics models for ER prediction were constructed by LightGBM (a machine learning algorithm). A clinical model was also developed for comparison. Model performance was validated in internal and two external cohorts by ROC. In addition, we investigated the interpretability of the LightGBM model.

RESULTS

The combined clinical-radiomics model that included 15 radiomic features and 3 clinical features (CA19-9 > 1000 U/ml, vascular invasion and tumor margin), resulting in the area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.974 (95% CI 0.946-1.000) in the derivation cohort, and 0.871-0.882 (95% CI 0.672-0.962) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, which are higher than the AJCC 8th TNM staging system (AUCs: 0.686-0.717, p all < 0.05). Especially, the sensitivity of this machine learning model could reach 94.6% on average for all the cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

This AI-driven combined radiomics model may provide as a useful tool to preoperatively predict ER and improve therapeutic management of ICC patients.

Machine learning radiomics to predict the early recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after curative resection: A multicentre cohort study

PURPOSE

Postoperative early recurrence (ER) leads to a poor prognosis for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) radiomics models to predict ER in ICC after curative resection.

METHODS

Patients with ICC undergoing curative surgery from three institutions were retrospectively recruited and assigned to training and external validation cohorts. Preoperative arterial and venous phase contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images were acquired and segmented. Radiomics features were extracted and ranked through their importance. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify clinical characteristics. Various ML algorithms were used to construct radiomics-based models, and the predictive performance was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

127 patients were included for analysis: 90 patients in the training set and 37 patients in the validation set. Ninety-two patients (72.4%) experienced recurrence, including 71 patients exhibiting ER. Male sex, microvascular invasion, TNM stage, and serum CA19-9 were identified as independent risk factors for ER, with the corresponding clinical model having a poor predictive performance (AUC of 0.685). Fifty-seven differential radiomics features were identified, and the 10 most important features were utilized for modelling. Seven ML radiomics models were developed with a mean AUC of 0.87 ± 0.02, higher than the clinical model. Furthermore, the clinical-radiomics models showed similar predictive performance to the radiomics models (AUC of 0.87 ± 0.03).

CONCLUSION

ML radiomics models based on CECT are valuable in predicting ER in ICC.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of durvalumab plus chemotherapy as first-line treatment for biliary tract cancer

Objective

The TOPAZ-1 trial reported a significant survival benefit of durvalumab in combination with chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of biliary tract cancer (BTC). However, no studies have evaluated the economics of this treatment option. The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of durvalumab plus chemotherapy compared to placebo plus chemotherapy from the perspective of US and Chinese payers.

Methods

Based on clinical data from the TOPAZ-1 trial, a Markov model was developed to simulate 10-year life expectancy and total healthcare costs for patients with BTC. The treatment group received durvalumab in combination with chemotherapy and the control group received placebo plus chemotherapy. The primary outcomes analyzed included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Uncertainty in the analysis results was assessed by sensitivity analysis.

Results

For US payers, the placebo plus chemotherapy group had a total cost of $56,157.05 and a utility of 1.10 QALYs, while the durvalumab plus chemotherapy group had a total cost of $217,069.25, a utility of 1.52 QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $381,864.39/QALY. For Chinese payers, the ICER of durvalumab plus chemotherapy group was $367,608.51/QALY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the analysis was most sensitive to the price of durvalumab. For US and Chinese payers, under the respective willing to pay thresholds, the likelihood of the durvalumab plus chemotherapy arm being cost-effective was 0%.

Conclusions

Both in China and in the US, durvalumab in combination with chemotherapy is not a cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of BTC compared with chemotherapy.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival with unresected cholangiocarcinoma undergoing external radiotherapy

Objective

To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) who were unresected and received radiotherapy to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of patient cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Methods

Suitable patient cases were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, prognostic factors were analyzed by Lasso, Cox regression, and nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors to predict 6 and 12 months CSS. The consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were tested for the predictive efficacy of the model, respectively.

Results

The primary site, tumor size, T-stage, M-stage, and chemotherapy (P < 0.05) were identified as independent risk factors after Cox and Lasso regression analysis. Patients in training cohort had a 6 months CSS rates was 68.6 ± 2.6%, a 12-month CSS rates was 49.0 ± 2.8%. The median CSS time of 12.00 months (95% CI: 10.17-13.83 months). The C-index was 0.664 ± 0.039 for the training cohort and 0.645 ± 0.042 for the validation cohort. The nomogram predicted CSS and demonstrated satisfactory and consistent predictive performance in 6 (73.4 vs. 64.9%) and 12 months (72.2 vs. 64.9%), respectively. The external validation calibration plot is shown AUC for 6- and 12-month compared with AJCC stage was (71.2 vs. 63.0%) and (65.9 vs. 59.8%). Meanwhile, the calibration plot of the nomogram for the probability of CSS at 6 and 12 months indicates that the actual and nomogram predict that the CSS remains largely consistent. DCA showed that using a nomogram to predict CSS results in better clinical decisions compared to the AJCC staging system.

Conclusion

A nomogram model based on clinical prognostic characteristics can be used to provide CSS prediction reference for patients with CCA who have not undergone surgery but have received radiotherapy.

A Nomogram Model to Predict Early Recurrence of Patients With Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma for Adjuvant Chemotherapy Guidance: A Multi-Institutional Analysis

Background

The influence of different postoperative recurrence times on the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the independent risk factors and establish a nomogram prediction model of early recurrence (recurrence within 1 year) to screen patients with ICC for ACT.

Methods

Data from 310 ICC patients who underwent radical resection between 2010 and 2018 at eight Chinese tertiary hospitals were used to analyze the risk factors and establish a nomogram model to predict early recurrence. External validation was conducted on 134 patients at the other two Chinese tertiary hospitals. Overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) were estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify independent risk factors for prognosis. A logistic regression model was used to screen independent risk variables for early recurrence. A nomogram model was established based on the above independent risk variables to predict early recurrence.

Results

ACT was a prognostic factor and an independent affecting factor for OS and RFS of patients with ICC after radical resection (p < 0.01). The median OS of ICC patients with non-ACT and ACT was 14.0 and 15.0 months, and the median RFS was 6.0 and 8.0 months for the early recurrence group, respectively (p > 0.05). While the median OS of ICC patients with non-ACT and ACT was 41.0 and 84.0 months, the median RFS was 20.0 and 45.0 months for the late recurrence group, respectively (p < 0.01). CA19-9, tumor size, major vascular invasion, microvascular invasion, and N stage were the independent risk factors of early recurrence for ICC patients after radical resection. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.777 (95% CI: 0.713~0.841) and 0.716 (95%CI: 0.604~0.828) in the training and testing sets, respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram model established based on the independent risk variables of early recurrence for curatively resected ICC patients has a good prediction ability and can be used to screen patients who benefited from ACT.

Progression Patterns and Post-Progression Survival in Recurred Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Patients: A Novel Prognostic Nomogram Based on Multicenter Cohorts

Background

The post-progression survival (PPS) of recurred intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) patients relates to the characteristics of tumor progression. Moreover, the prediction model of PPS in those patients has not been well established. This study aimed at developing a novel nomogram for predicting PPS in recurred iCCA patients.

Method

Clinical characteristics were retrospectively collected in 396 patients diagnosed with iCCA from cohorts of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) and the First Hospital of Dalian Medical University (FHDMU). The PPS in patients with different progression patterns was investigated. The nomogram of PPS was established with the Cox regression model in the primary cohort. Then the nomogram was verified in the external validation cohort.

Results

Liver progression was the commonest pattern (42.08%) in recurred iCCA patients, while patients with local LN progression had significantly better PPS than those with other patterns. The independent prognostic factors comprised elevated CEA levels, tumor differentiation, N stage 8th, adjuvant therapy, Local LN metastasis, Liver Metastasis only, and Multiple Metastasis. The nomogram constructed on these factors achieved satisfied C-indexes of 0.794 (95% CI 0.769–0.828) and 0.827 (0.779–0.876) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. These values were significantly higher than those of the 8th TNM stage system (all p &lt; 0.001). The recurred iCCA patients could be precisely classified into high- and low-risk groups according to the cutoff point of this nomogram (p &lt; 0.01).

Conclusion

The investigation of progression patterns and the development of this nomogram can offer new evidence to precisely postoperative and post-progression management of iCCA patients.

Development and validation of nomogram to predict very early recurrence of combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma after hepatic resection: a multi-institutional study

Background and objectives

Combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC) has a high incidence of early recurrence. The objective of this study is to construct a model predicting very early recurrence (VER) (i.e., recurrence within 6 months after surgery) of cHCC.

Methods

One hundred thirty-one consecutive patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital served as a development cohort to construct a nomogram predicting VER by using multi-variable logistic regression analysis. The model was internally and externally validated in a validation cohort of 90 patients from Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital using the C concordance statistic, calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The VER nomogram contains microvascular invasion (MiVI), macrovascular invasion (MaVI), and CA19-9 > 25 mAU/mL. The model shows good discrimination with C-indexes of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.85) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66–0.86) in the development cohort and validation cohort respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model is clinically useful and the calibration of our model was favorable. Our model stratified patients into two different risk groups, which exhibited significantly different VER.

Conclusions

Our model demonstrated favorable performance in predicting VER in cHCC patients.

Real-World Outcomes of Gemcitabine, Cisplatin, and Nab-Paclitaxel Chemotherapy Regimen for Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

Background/Aims

Advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) is associated with poor survival. A recent phase II study of triplet combination chemotherapy, including gemcitabine, cisplatin, and nanoparticle albumin-bound (nab)-paclitaxel, has shown promising results. This study aimed to compare the efficacy of triplet and standard doublet chemotherapy in a real-world setting.

Methods

Patients with advanced BTC treated with triplet and doublet chemotherapy regimens were recruited. The propensity-score nearest neighbor matching method with a ratio of one-to-one was used to create a matched cohort for comparison. Progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety profiles were examined in both groups.

Results

A total of 68 patients (n=34 per group) were included in the matched cohort, and their baseline characteristics were well balanced. Survival outcomes in the triplet chemotherapy group were not better than those in the doublet chemotherapy group, with a median PFS of 7.5 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 10.9) versus 7.2 months (95% CI, 5.6 to 8.9) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.93; 95% CI, 0.53 to 1.62; p=0.793) and a median OS of 13.7 months (95% CI, 8.8 to 18.7) versus 12.2 months (95% CI, 8.4 to 16.0) (HR 0.73; 95% CI, 0.38 to 1.41; p=0.354), respectively. In addition, the treatment-related severe adverse events, such as neutropenia, were more common in the triplet chemotherapy group.

Conclusions

Gemcitabine, cisplatin, and nab-paclitaxel did not improve the PFS or OS compared to that achieved by standard chemotherapy in patients with advanced BTC. The benefits of triplet chemotherapy in advanced BTC require examination in large randomized controlled trials.

Key Words Biliary tract cancer; Gemcitabine; Cisplatin; Albumin-bound paclitaxel

Three-Dimensional Cell Culture Models of Hepatocellular Carcinoma - a Review

INTRODUCTION

Three-dimensional (3D) cell culture studies are becoming extremely common because of their capability to mimic tumor architecture, such as cell-cell and cell-ECM interactions, more efficiently than 2D monolayer systems. These interactions have important roles in defining the tumor cell behaviors, such as proliferation, differentiation, and most importantly, tumor drug response.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to provide an overview of the methods for 3D tumor spheroid formation to model human tumors, specifically concentrated on studies using hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cells.

METHOD

We obtained information from previously published articles. In this review, there is discussion of the scaffold and non-scaffold-based approaches, including hanging drop, bioreactors and 3D bioprinting.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The mimicking of the tumor microenvironment (TME) as tumor spheroids could provide a valuable platform for studying tumor biology. Multicellular tumor spheroids are self-assembled cultures of mixed cells (tumor and stromal cells) organized in a 3D arrangement. These spheroids closely mimic the main features of human solid tumors, such as structural organization, central hypoxia, and overall oxygen and nutrient gradients. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common liver malignancy, and most difficult to overcome because of its drug resistance and tumor heterogeneity. In order to mimic this highly heterogeneous environment, 3D cell culture systems are needed.

Prognostic value and predication model of microvascular invasion in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a multicenter study from China

BACKGROUND

At present, hepatectomy is still the most common and effective treatment method for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients. However, the postoperative prognosis is poor. Therefore, the prognostic factors for these patients require further exploration. Whether microvascular invasion (MVI) plays a crucial role in the prognosis of ICC patients is still unclear. Moreover, few studies have focused on preoperative predictions of MVI in ICC patients.

METHODS

Clinicopathological data of 704 ICC patients after curative resection were retrospectively collected from 13 hospitals. Independent risk factors were identified by the Cox or logistic proportional hazards model. In addition, the survival curves of the MVI-positive and MVI-negative groups before and after matching were analyzed. Subsequently, 341 patients from a single center (Eastern Hepatobiliary Hospital) in the above multicenter retrospective cohort were used to construct a nomogram prediction model. Then, the model was evaluated by the index of concordance (C-Index) and the calibration curve.

RESULTS

After propensity score matching (PSM), Child-Pugh grade and MVI were independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) in ICC patients after curative resection. Major hepatectomy and MVI were independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). The survival curves of OS and RFS before and after PSM in the MVI-positive groups were significantly different compared with those in the MVI-negative groups. Multivariate logistic regression results demonstrated that age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and preoperative image tumor number were independent risk factors for the occurrence of MVI. Furthermore, the prediction model in the form of a nomogram was constructed, which showed good prediction ability for both the training (C-index = 0.7622) and validation (C-index = 0.7591) groups, and the calibration curve showed good consistency with reality.

CONCLUSION

MVI is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of ICC patients after curative resection. Age, GGT, and preoperative image tumor number were independent risk factors for the occurrence of MVI in ICC patients. The prediction model constructed further showed good predictive ability in both the training and validation groups with good consistency with reality.

Update on the association of hepatitis B with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Is there new evidence?

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a subgroup of cholangiocarcinoma that accounts for about 10%-20% of the total cases. Infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the most important predisposing factors leading to the formation of iCCA. It has been recently estimated based on abundant epidemiological data that the association between HBV infection and iCCA is strong with an odds ratio of about 4.5. The HBV-associated mechanisms that lead to iCCA are under intense investigation. The diagnosis of iCCA in the context of chronic liver disease is challenging and often requires histological confirmation to distinguish from hepatocellular carcinoma. It is currently unclear whether antiviral treatment for HBV can decrease the incidence of iCCA. In terms of management, surgical resection remains the mainstay of treatment. There is a need for effective treatment modalities beyond resection in both first- and second-line treatment. In this review, we summarize the epidemiological evidence that links the two entities, discuss the pathogenesis of HBV-associated iCCA, and present the available data on the diagnosis and management of this cancer.

Probabilistic ratiocination of hepatocellular carcinoma after resection: evaluation of expected to be promising approaches

Background

Precise prediction of survival after treatment is of great importance for patients with diseases with high mortality. RNA sequencing data and deep learning (DL) methods are expected to become promising approaches in the development of prediction models in the future. We aimed to evaluate the optimal covariates and methodology for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing surgical resection.

Methods

The Cox proportional hazards regression model and the DL approach were used to develop prediction models incorporating clinical, genetic, and combined clinical and genetic variables for survival prediction in patients with HCC after resection. A total of 1,114 patients and 184 patients were enrolled in the present study from 2,163 and 601 patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital and Renji Hospital, respectively. The models were internally validated through random sampling and externally validated in clinical cohorts. Between-model comparisons were carried out in terms of the integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification index.

Results

The Cox and DL clinical models were developed by adopting 7 independent prognostic factors (total bilirubin, prothrombin time, tumor size, tumor number, lymph node metastasis, and vascular invasion) and 22 clinical factors, respectively. Both the Cox clinical model and the DL clinical model showed excellent performances in the derivation [area under the curve (AUC): 0.75 vs. 0.77] and validation (AUC: 0.83 vs. 0.80) sets. The derived Cox genetic model with 6 significant prognostic genes was not as effective as the DL approach involving 686 genes. A combined clinical and genetic approach modified the performances of both the Cox and DL models. The integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification index of the DL clinical model were generally better than those of the Cox clinical model.

Conclusions

Our Cox clinical model sufficiently provided precise survival prediction in patients with HCC after resection. It may serve as an accurate and cost-effective tool for predicting survival in such patients.

Personalized Preoperative Nomograms Predicting Postoperative Risks after Resection of Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Curative treatment of perihilar tumors requires major hepatectomy responsible for high morbidity and mortality. Current nomograms are based on definitive pathological analysis, not usable for patient selection. Our aim was to propose preoperative predictors for severe morbidity (Dindo-Clavien ≥3) and mortality at sixth month after resection of perihilar tumors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed perioperative data of 186 patients operated with major hepatectomy for perihilar tumors between 2012 and 2018 in two high-volume centers. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to determine the preoperative predictors of morbidity and mortality. A stepwise regression in forward direction was developed to select variables for definitive models. Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Akaike information criteria and area under the ROC curves were calculated to validate both nomograms.

RESULTS

Resections were indicated for perihilar and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in 125 and 61 cases, respectively. Severe complications occurred in 76 patients (40.8%). Nineteen patients (10.2%) deceased before the sixth postoperative month. The predictors of severe morbidity were: male gender, portal vein embolization, planned biliary resection, low psoas muscle area/height² and low hemoglobinemia. The predictors of early mortality were: age, high bilirubinemia, hypoalbuminemia, biliary drainage and long drainage-to-surgery interval. For both models, the p values of Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were of 0.9 and 0.99, respectively, the Akaike information criteria were of 35.5 and 37.7, respectively, and area under the curves was of 0.73 and 0.86, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed two accurate and practical nomograms based on exclusively preoperative data to predict early outcomes following the resection of perihilar tumors. If validated in larger series, these tools could be integrated in the decision-making process for patient selection.

Effect of Tumor Size on Long-Term Survival After Resection for Solitary Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Background

The relationship between tumor size and survival in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is still controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of tumor size for solitary ICC after resection and explore optimal cut-off values in different subgroups.

Methods

Patients with solitary ICC who underwent liver resection from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and Shandong Provincial Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic ability of tumor size. The log-rank test was used to determine the optimal cut-off values, and a minimum P was regarded as the optimal one in different subgroups.

Results

Large tumor size groups had worse overall survival (OS) than small tumor size groups. Cox regression analysis suggested that tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for OS for solitary ICC after resection. Subgroup analysis showed tumor size was associated with OS for both solitary ICC with and without vascular invasion (VI). Furthermore, the optimal cut-off values for solitary ICC with and without VI were found to be 8 and 3 cm, respectively, which could divide the patients into two groups with significant differences in OS.

Conclusion

Tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for solitary ICC after resection. The existing American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system could be improved if the cut-off value of the T1 stage was changed to 8 cm and if the T2 stage incorporated a tumor size with a cut-off value of 3 cm. Further studies with more cases are needed to validate these findings.

Quality and performance of validated prognostic models for survival after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the performance of prognostic survival models for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) when validated in an external dataset. Furthermore, it sought to identify common prognostic factors across models, and assess methodological quality of the studies in which the models were developed.

METHODS

The PRISMA guidelines were followed. External validation studies of prognostic models for patients with iCCA were searched in 5 databases. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

Thirteen external validation studies were identified, validating 18 different prognostic models. The Wang model was the sole model with good performance (C-index above 0.70) for overall survival. This model incorporated tumor size and number, lymph node metastasis, direct invasion into surrounding tissue, vascular invasion, Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Methodological quality was poor in 11/12 statistical models. The Wang model had the highest score with 13 out of 17 points.

CONCLUSION

The Wang model for prognosis after resection of iCCA has good quality and good performance at external validation, while most prognostic models for iCCA have been developed with poor methodological quality and show poor performance at external validation.

A Novel Prognostic Nomogram for Patients With Recurrence of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Initial Surgery

Background: The prognosis of patients with post-operative recurrent intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is at great variance. We aimed to propose a novel efficient prognostic nomogram in facilitating the risk stratification for post-operative recurrent ICC patients. Methods: From 2000 to 2016, a total of 237 post-operative recurrent ICC patients were enrolled in this study, and randomly divided into training (n = 178) and validation cohorts (n = 59) at a ratio of 3:1. The performance of this nomogram was assessed by discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness, and the results were compared with four other currently used ICC staging systems. Results: On multivariate analysis of the training cohort, serum CA 19-9, albumin-bilirubin grade at recurrence, time from primary resection to recurrence, tumor number at recurrence, and treatment for recurrence were selected for the model. The concordance index (C-index) of our model was 0.791 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.736-0.846], which was statistically higher than the values of the following systems: American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition (0.610), Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan (0.613), Nathan (0.582), and Okabayashi (0.600; P < 0.001 for all). The nomogram performed well in terms of calibration when compared with actual observation. The findings were supported by the validation cohort. Conclusions: Compared with four currently used staging systems for ICC, our nomogram showed more promising clinical utility in improving individualized predictions of survival for post-operative recurrent ICC patients.

Survival of Patients with Cholangiocarcinoma Receiving Surgical Treatment in an O. viverrini Endemic Area in Thailand: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective:

To investigate risk factors associated with mortality in cholangiocarcinoma patients receiving surgical treatment in Thailand’s endemic area and their survival rate.

Materials and Methods:

Medical records of patients with histologically confirmed cholangiocarcinoma, who underwent surgical treatment at Sanpasitthiprasong Regional Hospital from October 1, 2013 to October, 31 2015, were retrospectively included. Patients’ vital status (death/alive) and date of death were obtained from the Interior Ministry’s death certificate. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to examine factors associated with mortality.

Results:

Out of 295 patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), 180(58%) were intrahepatic CCA, 86(28%) were perihilar CCA, and 29 (9%) were distal CCA. Three groups were homogenous in terms of age and gender. Most of our patients referred with abdominal pain (63%), especially those who were intrahepatic CCA (77%). However, almost 80% of the perihilar CCA and distal CCA patients came with jaundice. Tumor markers (CEA and CA19-9) were not different between groups p=0.74 and p=0.43 respectively. Median survival of patients with intrahepatic CCA, perihilar CCA, and distal CCA patients was 14.6, 14.2, and 14.0 months, respectively. Factors independently associated with mortality in intrahepatic CCA patients were number and size of tumors and presence of perineural invasion (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.09[1.03 - 1.15], 1.07[1.02 - 1.13], and 2.09 [1.28 - 3.39], respectively). In perihilar CCA patients, having positive lymph nodes and resection status were independently associated with mortality. Compared to R0 resection, R1, R2, and no resection of perihilar CCA were associated with a 2-, 8- and 4-fold increase in the risk of mortality (HR 2.17 (0.99 – 4.78), 7.97 (3.22 – 19.71), and 4.21 (0.51 – 34.82), respectively).

Conclusion:

CCA patients in this endemic area had fairly poor survival. Factors associated with mortality in intrahepatic CCA were number and size of tumors and perineural invasion. However, risk factors for perihilar CCA included positive lymph nodes and resection status.

Transarterial chemoembolization versus percutaneous microwave coagulation therapy for recurrent unresectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Development of a prognostic nomogram

BACKGROUND

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and percutaneous microwave coagulation therapy (PMCT) are commonly used to treat intrahepatic recurrent liver cancers. However, there is no information regarding their effectiveness in patients with recurrent intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after resection.

METHODS

A total of 275 patients with localized recurrent ICC who received either TACE (n = 183) or PMCT (n = 92) were studied. A propensity score matching analysis was performed to compare prognostic impact of TACE and PMCT. Prognostic factors for TACE and PMCT were identified respectively. Predictive nomograms for each TACE and PMCT were developed using the Cox independent prognostic factors and were validated in independent patient groups by receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curve values.

RESULTS

Both TACE and PMCT provided curativeness in partial patients (5-year overall survival: 21.4% and 6.1%, respectively), but TACE provided better survival benefit in both overall patients (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.97; P = 0.034) and propensity score matching analysis (HR = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.47-0.98; P = 0.041). Independent prognostic factors for TACE were tumor size >5 cm, poor differentiation, and major resection, whereas poor differentiation, hepatitis B virus infection, cholelithiasis, and lymph node metastasis were identified for PMCT. Both predictive nomograms for TACE and PMCT were validated to be effective with area under curve values of 0.77 and 0.70, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

TACE provided better survival benefits compared to PMCT. However, there was a disparity in prognostic factors, suggesting evaluation of the two nomograms may be supportive in modality selection. Further prospective validation studies are required for the results to be applied in clinical medicine.

A panel of protein kinase high expression is associated with postoperative recurrence in cholangiocarcinoma

Background

Cancer recurrence is one of the most concerning clinical problems of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) patients after treatment. However, an identification of predictive factor on Opisthorchis viverrini (OV)-associated CCA recurrence is not well elucidated. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the correlation of twelve targeted protein kinases with CCA recurrence.

Methods

Twelve protein kinases, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, 3, 4 (HER2, HER3, HER4), vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 3 (VEGFR3), vascular endothelial growth factor-C (VEGF-C), erythropoietin-producing hepatocellular carcinoma receptor type-A3 (EphA3), EphrinA1, phosphor-serine/threonine kinase 1 (p-Akt1), serine/threonine kinase 1 (Akt1), beta-catenin and protein Wnt5a (Wnt5a) were examined using immunohistochemistry. Pre-operative serum tumor markers, CA19–9 and CEA were also investigated.

Results

Among twelve protein kinases, EGFR, HER4, and EphA3 were associated with tumor recurrence status, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate cox regression demonstrated that EGFR, HER4, EphA3 or the panel of high expression of these proteins was an independent prognostic factor for tumor recurrence. The combination of high expression of these proteins with a high level of CA19–9 could improve the predictive ability on tumor recurrence. Moreover, the patients were stratified more accurately when analyzed using the combination of high expression of these proteins with primary tumor (T) or lymph node metastasis (N) status.

Conclusion

EGFR, HER4, EphA3 or the panel of high expression of these proteins is an independent prognostic factor for post-operative CCA recurrence.

Latent Risk Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Susceptible to Adjuvant Treatment After Resection: A Clinical Deep Learning Approach

Background: Artificial Intelligence (AI) frameworks have emerged as a novel approach in medicine. However, information regarding its applicability and effectiveness in a clinical prognostic factor setting remains unclear. Methods: The AI framework was derived from a pooled dataset of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients from three clinical centers (n = 1,421) by applying the TensorFlow deep learning algorithm to Cox-indicated pathologic (four), serologic (six), and etiologic (two) factors; this algorithm was validated using a dataset of ICC patients from an independent clinical center (n = 234). The model was compared to the commonly used staging system (American Joint Committee on Cancer; AJCC) and methodology (Cox regression) by evaluating the brier score (BS), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and area under curve (AUC) values. Results: The framework (BS, 0.17; AUC, 0.78) was found to be more accurate than the AJCC stage (BS, 0.48; AUC, 0.60; IDI, 0.29; NRI, 11.85; P < 0.001) and the Cox model (BS, 0.49; AUC, 0.70; IDI, 0.46; NRI, 46.11; P < 0.001). Furthermore, hazard ratios greater than three were identified in both overall survival (HR; 3.190; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.150-4.733; P < 0.001) and disease-free survival (HR, 3.559; 95% CI, 2.500-5.067; P < 0.001) between latent risk and stable groups in validation. In addition, the latent risk subgroup was found to be significantly benefited from adjuvant treatment (HR, 0.459; 95% CI, 0.360-0.586; P < 0.001). Conclusions: The AI framework seems promising in the prognostic estimation and stratification of susceptible individuals for adjuvant treatment in patients with ICC after resection. Future prospective validations are needed for the framework to be applied in clinical practice.

Clinical features of sarcomatoid change in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and prognosis after surgical liver resection: A Propensity Score Matching analysis

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma with sarcomatoid change (iCCA-SC) is a rare histological subtype of iCCA, the clinical features and outcomes after surgical resection on the prognosis is still unknown.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of patients with histologically proven iCCA who underwent curative liver resection at our hospital between January 2008 and December 2018. Propensity score matching analysis was used to match patients with and without sarcomatoid change at a ratio of 1:4. The nomogram integrating all significant independent factors for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was constructed to predict prognosis for iCCA. The predictive accuracy ability of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's index (C-index).

RESULTS

A total of 40 iCCA-SC and 160 ordinary iCCA patients were included in this study. RFS and OS in the iCCA-SC group were significantly lower than those in the ordinary iCCA group (P<.001 and P = .002, respectively). The calibration curve for the probability of survival showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

The histological sarcomatoid subtype is an independent predictor of tumor recurrence and shorter OS in iCCA patients. The nomogram we established could provide more accurate prognostic prediction for iCCA patients.

Prediction for early recurrence of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma: quantitative magnetic resonance imaging combined with prognostic immunohistochemical markers

BACKGROUND

Partial hepatectomy is the first option for intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) treatment, which would prolong survival. The main reason for the poor outcome after curative resection is the high incidence of early recurrence (ER). The aim of this study was to investigate the combined predictive performance of qualitative and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features and prognostic immunohistochemical markers for the ER of IMCC.

METHODS

Forty-seven patients with pathologically proven IMCC were enrolled in this retrospective study. Preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI and post-operative immunohistochemical staining of epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFR), vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR), P53 and Ki67 were performed. Univariate analysis identified clinic-radiologic and pathological risk factors of ER. Radiomics analysis was performed based on four MRI sequences including fat suppression T2-weighted imaging (T2WI/FS), arterial phase (AP), portal venous phase (PVP), and delayed phase (DP) contrast enhanced imaging. A clinicoradiologic-pathological (CRP) model, radiomics model, and combined model were developed. And ROC curves were used to explore their predictive performance for ER stratification.

RESULTS

Enhancement patterns and VEGFR showed significant differences between the ER group and non-ER group (P = 0.001 and 0.034, respectively). The radiomics model based on AP, PVP and DP images presented superior AUC (0.889, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.783-0.996) among seven radiomics models with a sensitivity of 0.938 and specificity of 0.839. The combined model, containing enhancement patterns, VEGFR and radiomics features, showed a preferable ER predictive performance compared to the radiomics model or CRP model alone, with AUC, sensitivity and specificity of 0.949, 0.875 and 0.774, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined model was the superior predictive model of ER. Combining qualitative and quantitative MRI features and VEGFR enables ER prediction, thus facilitating personalized treatment for patients with IMCC.

Essential updates to the surgical treatment of biliary tract cancer

Biliary tract cancer, which includes intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, extrahepatic bile duct cancer, gallbladder cancer, and ampullary cancer, is an intractable disease with a dismal prognosis. Prognosis is particularly poor in cases involving vessels or lymph nodes. Hepatobiliary pancreatic surgeons worldwide have consistently focused on improving surgical treatment, perioperative management, and chemotherapy to improve the outcomes of these diseases. There has been significant progress even in the last 2 years (2017 and 2018), such as promising findings reported by studies on the optimal extent of surgical treatment and multi-institutional randomized controlled trials on adjuvant chemotherapy. We overview the current trends and advancements made in surgical treatment in 2017 and 2018.

Albumin-Bilirubin Grade as a Novel Predictor of Survival in Advanced Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Aim

Child-Pugh (CP) grade has been used to assess liver function and postoperative outcomes in biliary tract neoplasms. The aim of this study was to preliminarily explore the prognostic significance of an alternative model of liver function, called albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (EHC).

Methods

A total of 109 advanced EHC patients, who received percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting combined with iodine-125 seed implantation from January 2012 to April 2017 in our department, were enrolled. Preoperative clinical data were collected to calculate the CP and ALBI grades. The performance of ALBI score in predicting postoperative death was compared with that of CP score by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression model were performed for overall survival (OS) analysis.

Results

The median survival time of our cohort was 12 months, and the 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 56.9% and 12.8%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of ALBI score for predicting death was significantly greater than the CP score (0.751, 95% CI: 0.641-0.861, P < 0.001 vs. 0.688, 95% CI: 0.567-0.809, P < 0.001). The univariate analysis revealed that the factors related to overall survival of EHC were carbohydrate antigen 19-9, total bilirubin, albumin, ALBI grade, and CP score. In multivariate analysis, ALBI grade (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.04-2.61, P = 0.032), but not CP score, was identified as an independent prognostic model.

Conclusion

We demonstrated that the ALBI grade could be used as a predictor of survival in unresectable EHC patients.

Prognostic value of inflammation-based indexes for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma following curative resection

It is widely acknowledged that inflammatory indices may serve as effective prognosis indicators for various malignancies. In the present study, the prognostic value of systemic inflammatory biomarkers for patients undergoing curative resection for intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma (ICC) was investigated. Clinical data of ICC patients who underwent curative resection between September 2008 and July 2017 were collected. Inflammatory indictors were analyzed using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve. Indictors that were significantly associated with the overall survival (OS) were used to establish a systemic inflammation-based score system and tested via nomogram using R software. The neutrophil To lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and lymphocyte to macrophages ratio (LMR) were significantly associated with the OS and disease-free survival of the patients. High NLR and low LMR were associated with worse clinicopathological and survival outcomes. The univariate and multivariate analyses indicated that tumor T stage, incisal margin, NLR and LMR were associated with the OS of the patients. The systemic inflammation-based scoring system based on LMR and NLR demonstrated a stronger discriminatory capacity and may serve as a useful prognostic parameter for patients undergoing curative resection for ICC. Low LMR and high NLR were observed to be associated with poor prognosis and worse clinical outcomes for patients with ICC undergoing curative surgery. A combined inflammation-based scoring system based on LMR and NLR may effectively predict the outcomes and serve as a novel prognostic predictor for these patients.

Surgical Management of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma in Patients with Cirrhosis: Impact of Lymphadenectomy on Peri-Operative Outcomes

BACKGROUND

The consequences of lymphadenectomy (LND) on cirrhotic patients undergoing hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have not been investigated. We sought to analyze the impact of LND on morbidity among patients undergoing resection for ICC.

METHODS

A total of 1005 patients who underwent hepatectomy for ICC at one of the 14 participating institutions between 1990 and 2015 were identified. A propensity score match analysis was performed to reduce confounding biases between cirrhosis and non-cirrhosis groups.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis was diagnosed in 118 (11.7%) patients. Among non-cirrhotic patients, 63% underwent major liver resection versus only 20% among patients with cirrhosis (p < 0.001). LND was also less common among cirrhotic versus non-cirrhotic patients (19 vs. 50%, p < 0.001). The incidence of complications was 41 and 30% among patients who did not and did have cirrhosis, respectively (p = 0.022). The propensity-matched cohort included 150 patients. The incidence of complications was 71% among patients who underwent lymphadenectomy versus 23% among patients who did not undergo lymphadenectomy (OR 8.39) (p < 0.001). In the propensity-matched analysis, the median HLN was comparable among patients independent of cirrhosis status (median HLN: non-cirrhosis, 2.5 vs. cirrhosis, 2) (p = 0.95). While lymphadenectomy was associated with a higher risk of infections (non-cirrhosis, 0% vs. cirrhosis, 21%, p < 0.001) among patients with cirrhosis, infections were not associated with lymphadenectomy among non-cirrhotic patients (p = 0.19).

CONCLUSION

Lymphadenectomy was associated with an increased risk of complications among patients with cirrhosis undergoing surgery for ICC. The benefit of lymphadenectomy in cirrhotic patients should be considered in light of the higher risk of postoperative complications compared with non-cirrhotic patients.

Novel Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Early Recurrence in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Introduction: The emerging field of "radiomics" has considerable potential in disease diagnosis, pathologic grading, prognosis evaluation, and prediction of treatment response. We aimed to develop a novel radiomics nomogram based on radiomics features and clinical characteristics that could preoperatively predict early recurrence (ER) of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after partial hepatectomy. Methods: A predictive model was developed from a training cohort comprising 139 ICC patients diagnosed between January 2010 and June 2014. Radiomics features were extracted from arterial-phase image of contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. Feature selection and construction of a "radiomics signature" were through Spearman's rank correlation and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression. Combined with clinical characteristics, a radiomics nomogram was developed with multivariable logistic regression. Performance of the nomogram was evaluated with regard to discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. An independent validation cohort involving 70 patients recruited from July 2014 to March 2016 was used to evaluate the utility of the nomogram developed. Results: The radiomics signature, consisting of nine features, differed significantly between ER patients and non-ER patients in training and validation cohorts. The area under the curve (AUC) of the radiomics signature in training and validation cohorts was 0.82 (confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.88) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.65-0.86), respectively. The AUC of the radiomics nomogram combining the radiomics signature and clinical stage in the two cohorts was 0.90 (95%CI, 0.83-0.94) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.76-0.93), respectively. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical usefulness of the radiomics nomogram. Conclusion: The non-invasive radiomics nomogram developed using the radiomics signature and clinical stage could be used to predict ER of ICC after partial hepatectomy.

Prognostic implications of hepatitis B virus infection in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma treated with first-line gemcitabine plus cisplatin

PURPOSE:

Hepatitis B virus infection is a well-known risk factor for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. However, its prognostic impact has rarely been investigated in advanced intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

METHODS:

Between April 2010 and May 2015, 296 patients with unresectable or metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma who received gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GemCis) were categorized into a hepatitis B virus group (n=62; 21%) and a non-hepatitis B virus group (n=234; 79%). Clinicopathological features and survival outcomes were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed.

RESULTS:

The median age of patients was 59 years (range, 27-78). The median overall survival with first-line GemCis was 9.4 months (95% CI 8.4, 10.4). Compared to the non-hepatitis B virus group, the hepatitis B virus group was younger (median age, 57 vs. 61 years, P = 0.001), mainly male (74% vs. 57%, P = 0.02), and had lower frequency of elevated cancer antigen (CA) 19-9 (34% vs. 59%, P = 0.001) and alkaline phosphatase (43% vs. 61%, P = 0.01). In a univariate analysis, the hepatitis B virus infection showed a marginal relationship with poor overall survival compared to the non-hepatitis B virus infection (median, 8.3 vs. 10.0 months; P=0.13). A multivariate analysis of potential prognostic factors revealed a significant association with poor overall survival in the hepatitis B virus group (hazard ratio (HR) =1.50, P = 0.02). Initial metastatic disease (vs. recurrent/unresectable disease; HR=1.50), metastatic sites ⩾ 2 (vs. 0-1; HR=1.51), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ⩾ 2 (vs. 0-1; HR=1.93), elevated total bilirubin (vs. normal; HR=1.83), and low albumin (vs. normal; HR=1.52) were significantly related to an unfavorable overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study suggests that the hepatitis B virus infection may be associated with distinctive clinicopathological characteristics and poor outcome in advanced intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma treated with GemCis.

The Limitations of Standard Clinicopathologic Features to Accurately Risk-Stratify Prognosis after Resection of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The ability to provide accurate prognostic data after hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains poor. We sought to develop and validate a nomogram to predict survival, as well as investigate the clinical implications of underestimating patients' risk of recurrence.

METHODS

Patients undergoing curative-intent resection of ICC between 1990 and 2015 at 14 major hepatobiliary centers were included. Variables significant on multivariable analysis were used to construct a nomogram to predict disease-free survival (DFS). The nomogram assigned a score to each variable included in the model and calculated the risk of recurrence.

RESULTS

Eight hundred ninety-seven patients are included in the analytic cohort. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, tumor size > 5 cm (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.44-2.13; p < 0.001), multifocal ICC (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.32-2.03; p < 0.001), lymph node metastasis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.25-2.11; p < 0.001), poorly differentiated tumor grade (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.21-1.89; p < 0.001), and periductal infiltrating type (PI) morphology (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09-1.83; p = 0.008) were independent adverse risk factors associated with decreased DFS. The Harrell's c-index for the nomogram was 0.633 (with n = 5000 bootstrapping resamples) and the plot comparing predicted and actuarial DFS demonstrated a good calibration of the model. A subset of patients (n = 282) had a DFS worse than predicted (ΔPredicted DFS - Actuarial DFS > 6 months). Moreover, underestimation of a recurrence risk was more common among patients with clinicopathologic features traditionally considered "favorable."

CONCLUSION

A nomogram based on standard clinicopathologic characteristics was suboptimal in its ability to predict accurately risk of recurrence among patients with ICC after curative-intent liver resection. Particularly, the risk of underestimating patient risk of recurrence was highest among patients with historically favorable characteristics. Over one third of patients recurred > 6 months earlier than the DFS predicted by the nomogram.

A novel chemotherapeutic sensitivity-testing system based on collagen gel droplet embedded 3D-culture methods for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Patients suffering from advanced stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often exhibit a poor prognosis or dismal clinical outcomes due to ineffective chemotherapy or a multi-drug resistance (MDR) process. Thus, it is urgent to develop a new chemotherapeutic sensitivity testing system for HCC treatment. The presence study investigated the potential application of a novel chemotherapeutic sensitivity-testing system based on a collagen gel droplet embedded 3D–culture system (CD-DST).

Methods

Primary cells were separating from surgical resection specimens and then tested by CD-DST. To identify whether HCC cell lines or cells separating from clinical specimens contain MDR features, the cells were treated with an IC₅₀ (half maximal inhibitory concentration) or IC_max (maximal inhibitory concentration) concentration of antitumor agents, e.g., 5-furuolouracil (5-FU), paclitaxel (PAC), cisplatin (CDDP), epirubicin (EPI), or oxaliplatin (L-OHP), and the inhibitory rates (IRs) were calculated.

Results

HepG2 cells were sensitive to 5-FU, PAC, CDDP, EPI, or L-OHP; the IC₅₀ value is 0.83 ± 0.45 μg/ml, 0.03 ± 0.02 μg/ml, 1.15 ± 0.75 μg/ml, 0.09 ± 0.03 μg/ml, or 1.76 ± 0.44 μg/ml, respectively. Only eight (8/26), nine (9/26), or five (5/26) patients were sensitive to the IC_max concentration of CDDP, EPI, or L-OHP; whereas only three (3/26), four (4/26), or two (2/26) patients were sensitive to the IC₅₀ concentration of CDDP, EPI, or L-OHP. No patients were sensitive to 5-FU or PAC.

Conclusions

The in vitro drug sensitivity exanimation revealed the MDR features of HCC and examined the sensitivity of HCC cells from clinical specimens to anti-tumor agents. CD-DST may be a useful method to predict the potential clinical benefits of anticancer agents for HCC patients.

Transarterial Chemoembolization: A Favorable Postoperative Management to Improve Prognosis of Hepatitis B Virus-associated Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma after Surgical Resection

Background: There is no information regarding transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) as a postoperative management after hepatic resection for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

Methods: Forty-two patients with pathological confirmation of HBV-associated ICC were enrolled. Prognostic impact of the clinicopathological factors as well as postoperative TACE were evaluated. Computed tomography findings of HBV-associated ICC were assessed.

Results: Tumor size of larger than 5 cm (hazard ratio [HR], 5.654; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.175 to 27.204; P = 0.031), postoperative TACE (HR, 0.123; 95% CI, 0.023 to 0.643; P = 0.013), and lymph node metastasis (HR, 3.284; 95% CI, 1.236 to 8.724; P = 0.017) revealed to be independently associated with survival outcomes of patients with HBV-associated ICC. Application of TACE, as a postoperative management to control early local recurrence on the basis of hepatic arterial phase enhancement, significantly prolonged survival outcomes (1-yr, 88.9%; 3-yr, 77.8%; 5-yr, 66.7%), compared to the patients who did not receive TACE (1-yr, 63.6%; 3-yr, 30.8%; 5-yr, 13.0%). When analyzed according to the status of hepatic arterial phase, arterial phase enhancement demonstrated a favorable trend on prognosis of patients with HBV-associated ICC without statistical significance (HR, 0.435; 95% CI, 0.140 to 1.359; P = 0.141), and TACE independently improved overall survival of patients with arterial phase enhancement (HR, 0.105; 95% CI, 0.014 to 0.774; P = 0.027).

Conclusions: Put together, our results indicate that postoperative TACE effectively improves prognosis of HBV-associated ICC with arterial phase enhancement in CT scans. Large-sized trials are required for our results to be applied in clinical medicine.