AFP and eGFR are related to early and late recurrence of HCC following antiviral therapy

Diagnostic value of serum inflammatory markers in predicting early refractoriness of transarterial chemoembolization in patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage 0, A, and B hepatocellular carcinoma

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is an established therapeutic strategy for intermediate stage Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, patients who are early refractory to TACE may not benefit from repeated TACE treatment. Our primary objective was to assess the diagnostic value of inflammatory markers in identifying early TACE refractory for patients with early (BCLC 0 and A) or intermediate (BCLC B) stage HCC. We retrospectively reviewed the HCC patients who underwent TACE as the initial treatment in two hospitals. Patients with early TACE refractoriness had significantly poorer median overall survival (OS) (16 vs 40 months, P<0.001) and progression-free survival (PFS) (7 vs 23 months, P<0.001) compared to TACE non-refractory patients. In the multivariate regression analysis, tumor size (P<0.001), bilobular invasion (P=0.007), high aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) (P=0.007), and high alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level (P=0.035) were independent risk factors for early TACE refractoriness. The predictive model showcasing these factors exhibited high ability proficiency, with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.833 (95%CI=0.774-0.892) in the training cohort, 0.750 (95%CI: 0.640-0.861) in the internal-validation cohort, and 0.733 (95%CI: 0.594-0.872) in the external-validation cohort. Calibration curve analysis revealed good agreement between the actual and predicted probabilities of early TACE refractoriness. Our preliminary study estimated the potential value of inflammatory markers in predicting early TACE refractoriness and provides a predictive model to assist in identifying patients who may not benefit from repeat TACE treatment.

Unmet needs in the post-direct-acting antivirals era: The risk and molecular mechanisms of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus eradication

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the major etiologies of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with approximately 30% of HCC being due to HCV infection worldwide. HCV eradication by antivirals greatly reduces the risk of HCC; nevertheless, HCC remains to occur in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who have achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). The proportion of post-SVR HCC among newly diagnosed HCC patients is increasing in the direct-acting antiviral (DAA) era and might be due to preexisting inflammatory and fibrotic liver backgrounds, immune dysregulation between host and virus interactions, as well as host epigenetic scars, genetic predispositions and alternations. By means of applying surrogate markers and adopting risk stratification, HCC surveillance should be consistently performed in high-risk populations. In this review, we discuss the possible molecular mechanism, risk factors, and HCC surveillance strategy for HCC development after HCV eradication in CHC patients.

Analyzing risk factors and developing a stratification system for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after interferon-free direct-acting antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C patients

BACKGROUND

The introduction of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has revolutionized the therapeutic landscape of chronic hepatitis C (CHC), however real-world data on the risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following DAA treatment in CHC-HCC patients are limited in Taiwan. We aimed to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of DAAs in Taiwanese patients with prior hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced HCC and identify the posttreatment risk factors for HCC recurrence.

METHODS

Between January 2017 and August 2021, 208 CHC-HCC patients underwent DAA treatment at Taipei Veterans General Hospital. Among them, 94 patients met the inclusion criteria (Barcelona clinic liver cancer [BCLC] stage 0/A after treatment with complete radiological response) for analysis. Comprehensive demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected before and after DAA treatment. The primary outcome was HCC recurrence post-DAA treatment, and independent variables were assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

The mean age of the enrolled patients was 75.9 ± 8.9 years; 44.7% were male, and 94.7% were Child-Pugh class A. Before DAA treatment, 31.9% experienced HCC recurrence. The median follow-up after DAA treatment was 22.1 months (interquartile range, 8.6-35.9 months). After treatment, 95.7% of the patients achieved a sustained virological response (SVR 12 ), but HCC recurrence occurred in 54.3%. Cumulative HCC recurrence rates after treatment were 31.1% at 1 year, 57.3% at 3 years, and 68.5% at up to 5.69 years. Multivariate analysis revealed that prior HCC recurrence before DAA treatment (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.15, p = 0.001), no SVR 12 after treatment (HR = 6.829, p = 0.016), 12-week posttreatment alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level >10 ng/mL (HR = 2.34, p = 0.036), and BCLC A3 lesions (two or three nodules without any tumor exceeding 3 cm) (HR = 2.31, p = 0.039) were independent risk factors for HCC recurrence. We further developed a risk stratification system based on these significant independent factors.

CONCLUSION

This investigation underscores the critical influence of factors such as prior HCC recurrence, successful attainment of SVR 12 , posttreatment AFP level, and specific tumor characteristics in determining the risk of HCC recurrence after treatment with DAAs. Our proposed innovative risk stratification system may not only contribute to enhanced personalized care but also holds the potential to optimize treatment outcomes.

Locoregional treatment improves overall survival for liver cancer during second-line regorafenib or immune checkpoint inhibitor

For advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the best second-line treatment after first-line treatment with sorafenib is unclear. This study aimed to compared the efficacy of second-line regorafenib (a tyrosine kinase inhibitor) and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in patients with advanced HCC after sorafenib therapy. This retrospective study included 89 patients with HCC treated with sorafenib, and then regorafenib (n = 58) or an ICI (n = 31). Treatment response, overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of the 2 groups were compared, and factors associated with post-treatment mortality or disease progression were evaluated. During follow-up period, compared to regorafenib, treatment with an ICI results in a slight increase in a 20% decrease of AFP (35.7% vs. 31.8%), complete response rate (6.5% vs. 0%), objective response rate (16.1% vs. 6.9%), median overall survival (13.3 vs. 5 months), and median PFS (3.0 vs. 2.6 months). Combined locoregional treatment (LRT) (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.15-0.99) during second-line treatment was associated with a decreased risk of post-treatment mortality. After propensity scoring matching, combined LRT during second-line treatment had longer post-treatment OS than patients without combined LRT. A 20% decrease of AFP (HR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31-0.94) was associated with a decreased risk of post-treatment disease progression. In conclusions, second-line treatment with regorafenib or ICI prolongs OS in patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib. Combined LRT during second-line treatment is associated with decreased post-treatment mortality. A 20% decrease of AFP level may be predictive of a lower rate of disease progression.

Establishment and Validation of the LI-RADS Morphologic Type II Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Recurrence Risk Scoring System

BACKGROUND

Tumor morphology links to early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma. Controversy exists regarding the recurrence risk of Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System morphologic Type II hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aims to explore risk factors for early recurrence of Type II hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients who underwent curative resection and preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI from June 2016 to June 2020. Our patients formed the development set, and hepatocellular carcinoma patients from the TCIA database served as validation. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression identified independent risk factors for early recurrence. A risk scoring system was established for risk stratification, and an early recurrence prediction model was developed and validated.

RESULTS

95 Type II hepatocellular carcinoma patients were in the development set, and 29 cases were in the validation set. Early recurrence rates were 33.7% and 37.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed age, histological grade, AFP, and intratumoral hemorrhage as independent risk factors for early recurrence. The model's diagnostic performance for early recurrence was AUC = 0.817 in the development set. A scoring system classified patients into low-risk (scores ≤ 3) and high-risk (scores > 3) groups. The high-risk group had significantly lower recurrence-free survival (40.0% vs 73.2%, P = 0.001), consistent with the validation set (25.0% vs 73.3%, P = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk scoring system demonstrated excellent discrimination and predictive ability, aiding clinicians in assessing early recurrence risk and identifying high-risk individuals effectively.

Revolutionising hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: Harnessing contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serological indicators for postoperative early recurrence prediction

This study aimed to develop a noninvasive predictive model for identifying early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (within 2 years after surgery) based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serum biomarkers. Additionally, the model's validity was assessedthrough internal and external validation. Clinical data were collected from patients who underwent liver resection at the First Hospital of Quanzhou and Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital. The data included general information, contrast-enhanced ultrasound parameters, Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) classification, and serum biomarkers. The data from Mengchao Hospital were divided into 2 groups, with a ratio of 6:4, to form the modeling and internal validation sets, respectively. On the other hand, the data from the First Hospital of Quanzhou served as the external validation group. The developed model was named the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Recurrence (HCC-ER) prediction model. The predictive efficiency of the HCC-ER model was compared with other established models. The baseline characteristics were found to be well-balanced across the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. Among the independent risk factors identified for early recurrence, LI-RADS classification, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor maximum diameter exhibited hazard ratios of 1.352, 1.337, and 1.135 respectively. Regarding predictive accuracy, the HCC-ER, Tumour-Node-Metastasis, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, and China Liver Cancer models demonstrated prediction errors of 0.196, 0.204, 0.201, and 0.200 in the modeling group; 0.215, 0.215, 0.218, and 0.212 in the internal validation group; 0.210, 0.215, 0.216, and 0.221 in the external validation group. Using the HCC-ER model, risk scores were calculated for all patients, and a cutoff value of 50 was selected. This cutoff effectively distinguished the high-risk recurrence group from the low-risk recurrence group in the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. However, the calibration curve of the predictive model slightly overestimated the risk of recurrence. The HCC-ER model developed in this study demonstrated high accuracy in predicting early recurrence within 2 years after hepatectomy. It provides valuable information for developing precise treatment strategies in clinical practice and holds considerable promise for further clinical implementation.

PNI-Based Nomograms to Predict Tumor Progression and Survival for Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

The relationship between the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and the prognosis of malignancy has been increasingly mentioned in recent research. This study aimed to construct nomograms based on the PNI to predict tumor progression and survival in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The development set included 785 patients who underwent their first TACE between 2012 and 2016, and the validation set included 336 patients who underwent their first TACE between 2017 and 2018. The clinical outcomes included the time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). Cox regression was applied to screen for independent risk factors of TTP and OS in the development set, and PNI-based nomograms were constructed for TTP and OS. The predictive performance of nomograms was conducted through the C-index, calibration curves, and decision analysis curves in the development set and validation set.

RESULTS

After multivariate analysis, the prognostic predictors of both TTP and OS included portal vessel invasion, extrahepatic metastasis, tumor number, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, longest tumor diameter, and PNI. Furthermore, the Child-Pugh classification and platelets (PLTs) were independent risk factors for OS only. Nomograms for predicting TTP and OS were constructed using TTP and OS prognostic factors. In the development set and the validation set, the C-index of the TTP nomograms was 0.699 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.680-0.718) and 0.670 (95%CI: 0.638-0.702), and the C-index of the OS nomograms was 0.730 (95%CI: 0.712-0.748) and 0.700 (95%CI: 0.665-0.723), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Nomograms based on the PNI can effectively predict tumor progression and survival in patients with unresectable HCC undergoing TACE.

A Nomogram Model to Predict Early Recurrence of Patients With Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma for Adjuvant Chemotherapy Guidance: A Multi-Institutional Analysis

Background

The influence of different postoperative recurrence times on the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the independent risk factors and establish a nomogram prediction model of early recurrence (recurrence within 1 year) to screen patients with ICC for ACT.

Methods

Data from 310 ICC patients who underwent radical resection between 2010 and 2018 at eight Chinese tertiary hospitals were used to analyze the risk factors and establish a nomogram model to predict early recurrence. External validation was conducted on 134 patients at the other two Chinese tertiary hospitals. Overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) were estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify independent risk factors for prognosis. A logistic regression model was used to screen independent risk variables for early recurrence. A nomogram model was established based on the above independent risk variables to predict early recurrence.

Results

ACT was a prognostic factor and an independent affecting factor for OS and RFS of patients with ICC after radical resection (p < 0.01). The median OS of ICC patients with non-ACT and ACT was 14.0 and 15.0 months, and the median RFS was 6.0 and 8.0 months for the early recurrence group, respectively (p > 0.05). While the median OS of ICC patients with non-ACT and ACT was 41.0 and 84.0 months, the median RFS was 20.0 and 45.0 months for the late recurrence group, respectively (p < 0.01). CA19-9, tumor size, major vascular invasion, microvascular invasion, and N stage were the independent risk factors of early recurrence for ICC patients after radical resection. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.777 (95% CI: 0.713~0.841) and 0.716 (95%CI: 0.604~0.828) in the training and testing sets, respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram model established based on the independent risk variables of early recurrence for curatively resected ICC patients has a good prediction ability and can be used to screen patients who benefited from ACT.

Plasma thioredoxin reductase: a potential diagnostic biomarker for gastric cancer

To improve the early detection of gastric cancer (GC), there is a growing need for novel and efficient biomarkers. We aimed to evaluate diagnostic value of thioredoxin reductase 1 (TXNRD1), which was found to be overexpressed in various malignancies. We found that TXNRD1 has a higher expression level in GC tissues compared with adjacent normal tissues, and high TXNRD1 expression was significantly associated with poor outcomes of GC patients. Next, a total of 1446 cases were collected, with 896 cases in gastric cancer, 322 in benign gastric disease and 228 in healthy controls. We noticed plasma thioredoxin reductase (TrxR) level in GC [8.4 (7.1, 9.7) U/mL] was significantly higher than that in benign disease [6.1 (5.4, 7.2) U/mL] or healthy controls [3.7 (1.7, 5.6) U/mL]. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of TrxR activity for GC diagnosis was set at 5.75 U/mL with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.945. Moreover, a combined panel of TrxR and routine tumor markers could further elevate the diagnostic efficacy compared to a single biomarker. Finally, by measuring pre- and post-treatment TrxR activity and routine tumor markers, we found the change trend of them was broadly consistent, and plasma TrxR activity was significantly decreased in patients treated with platinum/fluorouracil-based therapy. Our findings recommend plasma TrxR activity combined with tumor markers as effective diagnostic tools for GC patients. As well, plasma TrxR has the potential to monitor therapeutic efficacy.

The Dynamic Changes of AFP From Baseline to Recurrence as an Excellent Prognostic Factor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Locoregional Therapy: A 5-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Although many studies have confirmed the prognostic value of preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the association between AFP at baseline (b-AFP), subsequent AFP at relapse (r-AFP), and AFP alteration and overall survival in HCC patients receiving locoregional therapy has rarely been systematically elucidated.

Patients and Methods

A total of 583 subjects with newly diagnosis of virus-related HCC who were admitted to Beijing You ‘an Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016 were prospectively enrolled. The influence of b-AFP, subsequent r-AFP, and AFP alteration on relapse and post-recurrence survival were analyzed.

Results

By the end of follow-up, a total of 431 (73.9%) patients relapsed and 200 (34.3%) died. Patients with positive b-AFP had a 24% increased risk of recurrence compared with those who were negative. Patients with positive r-AFP had a 68% increased risk of death after relapse compared with those who were negative. The cumulative recurrence-death survival (RDS) rates for 1, 3, 5 years in patients with negative r-AFP were 85.6% (184/215), 70.2%(151/215), and 67.4%(145/215), while the corresponding rates were 75.1% (154/205), 51.2% (105/205), and 48.8% (100/205) in those with positive AFP (P<0.001). 35 (21.6%) of the 162 patients with negative b-AFP turned positive at the time of recurrence, and of this subset, only 12 (34.3%) survived. Of the 255 patients with positive b-AFP, 86 (33.7%) turned negative at the time of relapse, and of this subset, only 30 (34.9%) died. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative RDS rates were also compared among groups stratified by AFP at baseline and relapse. The present study found that patients with positive AFP at baseline and relapse, as well as those who were negative turned positive, had the shortest RDS and OS.

Conclusions

Not only AFP at baseline but also subsequent AFP at relapse can be used to predict a post-recurrence survival, which can help evaluate mortality risk stratification of patients after relapse.

Predictive Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development after Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment of HCV

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is still one of the major risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most frequent type of primary liver cancer. Direct-acting antivirals have substantially improved the cure rate of the virus, but the risk of hepatitis C virus-related HCC remains high, mainly in patients with advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. HCC is often asymptomatic and, therefore, remains undetected until the late tumor stage, which is associated with poor survival rates. Therefore, to improve the surveillance programs following HCV eradication, there is a need to summarize predictive factors or potential biomarkers, to specifically identify patients likely to develop HCC after direct-acting antiviral treatment. This review outlines the most recent data about different predictive factors for HCC development after direct-acting antiviral treatment of hepatitis C virus-infected patients, to improve the clinical management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus.