Indirect-comparison meta-analysis of treatment options for patients with refractory Kawasaki disease

Prediction of coronary artery lesions in children with Kawasaki syndrome based on machine learning

OBJECTIVE

Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is an acute vasculitis that affects children < 5 years of age and leads to coronary artery lesions (CAL) in about 20-25% of untreated cases. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that integrates complex data sets on a large scale and uses huge data to predict future events. The purpose of the present study was to use ML to present the model for early risk assessment of CAL in children with KS by different algorithms.

METHODS

A total of 158 children were enrolled from Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, and divided into 70-30% as the training sets and the test sets for modeling and validation studies. There are several classifiers are constructed for models including the random forest (RF), the logistic regression (LR), and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Data preprocessing is analyzed before applying the classifiers to modeling. To avoid the problem of overfitting, the 5-fold cross validation method was used throughout all the data.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) of the RF model was 0.925 according to the validation of the test set. The average accuracy was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.905 to 0.956). The AUC of the LG model was 0.888 and the average accuracy was 0.893 (95% CI, 0,837 to 0.950). The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.879 and the average accuracy was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.891 to 0.980).

CONCLUSION

The RF algorithm was used in the present study to construct a prediction model for CAL effectively, with an accuracy of 0.930 and AUC of 0.925. The novel model established by ML may help guide clinicians in the initial decision to make a more aggressive initial anti-inflammatory therapy. Due to the limitations of external validation and regional population characteristics, additional research is required to initiate a further application in the clinic.

Treatment of immunoglobulin-resistant kawasaki disease: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of different regimens

Background

This study aimed to gather evidence from clinical trials on the efficacy and safety of the available treatments for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant Kawasaki disease (KD) in children.

Methods

This work adopted the Newcastle-Ottawa scale to analyse the quality of the enrolled articles. A network meta-analysis was performed using clinical trials that compared drugs used to treat IVIG-resistant KD. Aggregate Data Drug Information System software v.1.16.5 was employed to analyse whether infliximab, second IVIG infusions, and intravenous pulse methylprednisolone (IVMP) were safe and effective.

Results

Ten studies, involving 704 patients with IVIG-resistant KD, were identified and analysed. Overall, infliximab exhibited remarkable antipyretic activity compared with the second IVIG infusions (2.46, 1.00-6.94). According to the drug rank, infliximab was the best option against IVIG-resistant KD. Regarding adverse effects, the infliximab group was more prone to hepatomegaly. A second IVIG infusion was more likely to result in haemolytic anaemia. IVMP treatment was more susceptible to bradycardia, hyperglycaemia, hypertension, and hypothermia. In addition, infliximab, IVMP, and the second IVIG infusions showed no significant differences in the risk of developing a coronary artery aneurysm (CAA).

Conclusion

Infliximab was the best option against IVIG-resistant KD, and IVMP, infliximab, and second IVIG infusions have not significant differences of prevent CAA in patients with IVIG-resistant KD.

Systematic Review Registration

Identifier: https://osf.io/3894y.

Evaluation of Formosa score and diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a bivariate meta-analysis

Background

In 2016, Lin et al. developed a prediction score of non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) (Lin et al., 2016). Various studies have attempted to validate the Formosa score, but inconsistent results have given us new opportunities and challenges. The aim of this meta-analysis is to explore the role of the Formosa score as a risk score in detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients and then compare the pooled sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano risk scores.

Methods

A comprehensive search of Cochrane, Embase, and PubMed was conducted through 20 December 2021, using key terms relevant to the research question "What are the sensitivities and specificities of the four Asian predicting scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano, in Kawasaki disease patients with IVIG resistance?" The reference lists of the included studies were manually reviewed to identify pertinent references. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary of sensitivity and specificity of the tools.

Results

We found 41 relevant studies of the four Asian risk scores that were eligible to analyze for pooled accuracy. Eleven studies involving 5,169 KD patients reported the diagnostic performance of the Formosa score for the risk of IVIG resistance. The overall performance of the Formosa score was as follows: pooled sensitivity, 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.48-0.70]; pooled specificity, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.50-0.68); and area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62. The Formosa score exhibited the highest sensitivity 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) for detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients among the 21,389 children included in the 41 studies. In terms of specificity estimates, Formosa had the lowest specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41-0.51).

Conclusion

Patients at high risk for IVIG resistance may receive adjunctive treatment to reduce coronary lesions and thus also cardiovascular morbidity. Among all of the included studies, we found Formosa score to have the best sensitivity (0.76) but unsatisfactory specificity (0.46) for predicting IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. In the future, network meta-analysis should also incorporate the accuracy of the new scores after they have undergone a certain degree of validation around the world.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, PROSPERO CRD42022341410.

2021 American College of Rheumatology/Vasculitis Foundation Guideline for the Management of Kawasaki Disease

OBJECTIVE

To provide evidence-based recommendations and expert guidance for the management of Kawasaki disease (KD), focusing on clinical scenarios more commonly addressed by rheumatologists.

METHODS

Sixteen clinical questions regarding diagnostic testing, treatment, and management of KD were developed in the Patient/Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcomes (PICO) question format. Systematic literature reviews were conducted for each PICO question. We used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation method to assess the quality of evidence and formulate recommendations. Each recommendation required consensus from at least 70% of the Voting Panel.

RESULTS

We present 1 good practice statement, 11 recommendations, and 1 ungraded position statement to guide the management of KD and clinical scenarios of suspected KD. These recommendations for KD are focused on situations in which input from rheumatologists may be requested by other managing specialists, such as in cases of treatment-refractory, severe, or complicated KD. The good practice statement affirms that all patients with KD should receive initial treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). In addition, we developed 7 strong and 4 conditional recommendations for the management of KD or suspected KD. Strong recommendations include prompt treatment of incomplete KD, treatment with aspirin, and obtaining an echocardiogram in the setting of unexplained macrophage activation syndrome or shock. Conditional recommendations include use of IVIG with other adjuvant agents for patients with KD and high-risk features of IVIG resistance and/or coronary artery aneurysms. These recommendations endorse minimizing risk to the patient by using established therapy promptly at disease onset and identifying situations in which adjunctive therapy may be warranted.

CONCLUSION

These recommendations provide guidance regarding diagnostic strategies, use of pharmacologic agents, and use of echocardiography in patients with suspected or confirmed KD.

2021 American College of Rheumatology/Vasculitis Foundation Guideline for the Management of Kawasaki Disease

OBJECTIVE

To provide evidence-based recommendations and expert guidance for the management of Kawasaki disease (KD), focusing on clinical scenarios more commonly addressed by rheumatologists.

METHODS

Sixteen clinical questions regarding diagnostic testing, treatment, and management of KD were developed in the Patient/Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcomes (PICO) question format. Systematic literature reviews were conducted for each PICO question. We used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation method to assess the quality of evidence and formulate recommendations. Each recommendation required consensus from at least 70% of the Voting Panel.

RESULTS

We present 1 good practice statement, 11 recommendations, and 1 ungraded position statement to guide the management of KD and clinical scenarios of suspected KD. These recommendations for KD are focused on situations in which input from rheumatologists may be requested by other managing specialists, such as in cases of treatment-refractory, severe, or complicated KD. The good practice statement affirms that all patients with KD should receive initial treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). In addition, we developed 7 strong and 4 conditional recommendations for the management of KD or suspected KD. Strong recommendations include prompt treatment of incomplete KD, treatment with aspirin, and obtaining an echocardiogram in the setting of unexplained macrophage activation syndrome or shock. Conditional recommendations include use of IVIG with other adjuvant agents for patients with KD and high-risk features of IVIG resistance and/or coronary artery aneurysms. These recommendations endorse minimizing risk to the patient by using established therapy promptly at disease onset and identifying situations in which adjunctive therapy may be warranted.

CONCLUSION

These recommendations provide guidance regarding diagnostic strategies, use of pharmacologic agents, and use of echocardiography in patients with suspected or confirmed KD.

Prediction of repeated intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in children with Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Repeated intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance prediction is one of the pivotal topics in Kawasaki disease (KD). Those non-responders of repeated IVIG treatment might be improved by an early-intensified therapy to reduce coronary artery lesion and medical costs. This study investigated predictors of resistance to repeated IVIG treatment in KD.

METHODS

A total of 94 children with IVIG-resistant KD treated at our hospital between January 2016 and August 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the therapeutic effect of a second dose IVIG treatment, the children were divided into repeated IVIG-responsive group and repeated IVIG-resistant group, and the clinical and laboratory data were compared. Predictors of repeated IVIG resistance and the optimal cut-off value were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

The Pre-IVIG laboratory data showed the percentage of neutrophils (N%) and levels of serum procalcitonin (PCT), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were significantly higher in repeated IVIG-resistant group compared with repeated IVIG-responsive group, while levels of serum sodium and albumin (ALB) were significantly lower (P < 0.05). The post-IVIG laboratory values of N% and C-reactive protein (CRP) were significantly higher in the repeated IVIG-resistant group compared with repeated IVIG-responsive group, while hemoglobin and ALB were lower (P < 0.05). Pre-IVIG PCT and post-IVIG CRP exhibited AUC of 0.751 and 0.778 respectively in predicting repeated IVIG resistance in KD. Pre-IVIG PCT > 1.81ng/ml (OR 4.1, 95 % CI 1.4 ~ 12.0, P < 0.05) and post-IVIG CRP > 45 mg/L (OR 4.6, 95 % CI 1.3 ~ 16.2, P < 0.05) were independent predictors of repeated IVIG resistance in KD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study illustrates the serum PCT level before initial IVIG treatment and CRP after initial IVIG could be used to predict repeated IVIG resistance in KD.

Treatment of Kawasaki Disease: A Network Meta-Analysis of Four Dosage Regimens of Aspirin Combined With Recommended Intravenous Immunoglobulin

Aspirin was once believed to reduce the mortality of Kawasaki disease (KD) due to its effect on the thrombotic occlusion of coronary arteries. However, conflicting evidence has been found regarding aspirin treatment and its benefit in patients with acute KD. We compared the efficacy of different aspirin doses in acute KD. A literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases was conducted to identify studies comparing different doses of aspirin for acute KD. The primary outcome of interest was coronary artery lesions (CAL). We used random-effects network meta-analysis. Six retrospective studies, including 1944 patients receiving aspirin in doses of 0, 3-5, 30-50, or 80-100 mg/kg/day, were selected. The risks of CAL were not significantly different for the various doses of aspirin compared to the placebo: odds ratio (OR) was 1.10 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70-1.71] for patients with aspirin 3-5 mg/kg/day; OR = 1.23 (95% CI: 0.67-2.26) for aspirin 30-50 mg/kg/day, and OR = 1.59 (95% CI: 0.74, 3.421) for 80-100 mg/kg/day. The P-score ranged from 0.76 for placebo to 0.19 for aspirin 80-100 mg/kg/day. The different doses of aspirin exhibited no significant difference with regard to the efficacy of CAL or with the secondary outcomes of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance or hospital stays for acute KD. Therefore, we found that treatment without any aspirin is not inferior to other doses of aspirin and can also slightly reduce the risk of CAL.

Low-Dose Prednisone Treatment for IVIG-Resistant Kawasaki Disease with Severe Arthritis and Joint Effusion in Two 3-Year-Old Children

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a global disease in children. The etiology and pathogenesis are unknown. Complications vary among patients. Fever can persist in some after immune globulin (IVIG) administration, termed IVIG-resistant KD. Here, we report two cases of IVIG-resistant KD with severe arthritis. The diagnosis of arthritis was confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showing joint effusion. Remarkably, fever and joint pain had not receded after the second dose of IVIG. To further manage the symptoms, we prescribed low-dose oral prednisone with success. Both fever and joint pain were diminished. We ponder that the low-dose prednisone might be an option to treat IVIG-resistant KD with severe arthritis.

Is there an association between intravenous immunoglobulin resistance and coronary artery lesion in Kawasaki disease?-Current evidence based on a meta-analysis

Background

Coronary artery lesion (CAL) caused by Kawasaki disease (KD) is a leading cause of acquired heart disease in children. Initial treatment of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) can reduce the incidence of CAL. Although most of the current studies have shown a certain correlation between CAL and IVIG resistance, the conclusions are not completely consistent. Thus, we performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the association between IVIG resistance and CAL in KD.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure through April 21, 2020 were searched to detect relevant studies. Data analysis was performed with STATA 15.1.

Results

A total of 53 relevant studies were eligible to this analysis, including 30312 KD patients, of which 4750 were IVIG resistance and 25562 were responders. There was a significant difference found between IVIG resistance and IVIG response groups in the incidence of CAL (P < 0.001, odds ratio (OR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) (3.18, 4.75)). The heterogeneity test results showed that the I² value was 74.8%. The meta-regression analysis showed that the study regions might be the sources of heterogeneity. The subgroup analysis suggested that the incidence of CAL in the IVIG resistance group was still higher than that in the IVIG response group under different regions, IVIG resistance diagnostic criteria, CAL diagnostic criteria, and study types. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis did not find any significant impact from every single study.

Conclusions

This is the first meta-analysis to reveal the incidence of CAL was associated with IVIG resistance in KD patients. Further well-designed studies with uniform criteria are needed to evaluate the incidence of CAL in IVIG resistant patients.

Higher efficacy of infliximab than immunoglobulin on Kawasaki disease, a meta-analysis

This meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy and safety of infliximab as initial therapy for patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) and intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistant KD. Studies of infliximab in KD, published between January 2004 and December 2019, were curated from PubMed, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Library. Data were analyzed using STATA Version 12.0. Of the 8 studies considered, 4 evaluated the effect of infliximab combined with IVIG as primary therapy in KD, and the remaining investigated the effect of infliximab in IVIG resistant patients. Infliximab was more effective than the control group, with the total summary odds ratio (OR) of 0.34 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.19-0.62). The treatment resistance of the infliximab group was lower than the IVIG group (0.36 [95% CI: 0.14-0.92]) when infliximab was combined with IVIG as the initial treatment. However, infliximab treatment for IVIG resistant KD was more effective than the IVIG group (0.28 [95% CI: 0.12-0.66]). There was no significant increase in the incidence of coronary artery lesions. The total summary OR for the incidence of coronary artery lesions and infliximab treatment was 0.88 (95% CI: 0.48-1.62). There was no statistically significant difference in adverse events (AEs) when compared between the groups (0.71 [95% CI: 0.44-1.16]). Infliximab combined with IVIG reduced treatment resistance in KD patients vs. conventional IVIG therapy. Infliximab improved clinical course in IVIG resistant KD patients. Infliximab treatment did not reduce the incidence of coronary artery lesions and did not show any significant increase in the incidence of AEs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020218554.

A Cost Comparison of Infliximab Versus Intravenous Immunoglobulin for Refractory Kawasaki Disease Treatment

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In 10% to 20% of cases, Kawasaki disease is refractory to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg), an expensive medication under a national shortage. Data suggest that infliximab is a viable alternative to a second dose of IVIg, with similar efficacy and safety. We compared the cost of a second IVIg dose to that of infliximab in the treatment of refractory Kawasaki disease (rKD).

METHODS

A decision analysis model was used to compare rKD treatments: a second dose of IVIg at 2 g/kg versus infliximab at 10 mg/kg. Infliximab monitoring times were 24, 36, and 48 hours. Direct hospital costs beginning at rKD diagnosis were estimated by using 2016-2017 Truven MarketScan data. Redbook was used for drug costs. Calculations were applied to 3 hypothetical cohorts of 100 patients aged 2 (12.5 kg), 4 (16 kg), and 8 years (25.5 kg). Indirect costs included parental missed workdays.

RESULTS

The total direct cost for children receiving IVIg was $1 677 801, $1 791 652, and $2 100 675 for the 2-, 4-, and 8-year-old cohorts. The direct cost of infliximab with 24 hours of monitoring was $853 042, $899 096, and $1 024 101, respectively. A 20% bidirectional sensitivity analysis revealed stability of our model, with overall cost savings with use of infliximab. With monitoring 48 hours after infliximab treatment, 20% changes in length of stay (LOS) tipped the balance for the 2- and 4-year-old cohorts. Overall, IVIg and infliximab LOS had the most influence on our model.

CONCLUSIONS

Infliximab has potential to yield shorter LOS and significant cost savings in the treatment of rKD. Infliximab treatment, followed by 24 hours of monitoring, nearly halved hospital costs, regardless of age.

Nivolumab plus Ipilimumab versus Existing Immunotherapies in Patients with PD-L1-Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

No head-to-head trials have compared the efficacy and safety of nivolumab (Niv) plus ipilimumab (Ipi) combination therapy (Niv+Ipi) and existing regimens with immunotherapies approved as first-line treatment in patients with programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1)-positive previously untreated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We conducted a network meta-analysis of four relevant Phase Ⅲ trials to compare the efficacy and safety of Niv+Ipi, pembrolizumab (Pem) plus platinum-based chemotherapy (PBC) (Pem+PBC), Pem, Niv, or PBC using Bayesian analysis. The primary efficacy endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with advanced NSCLC with PD-L1 expression ≥1%. The primary safety endpoint was the incidence of Grade 3–5 drug-related adverse events (G3–5AEs). Efficacy and safety were ranked using surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). With regard to PFS, Niv+Ipi was inferior to Pem+PBC, and superior to Pem, Niv, or PBC alone. SUCRA ranking showed Pem+PBC had the highest efficacy for PFS, followed by Niv+Ipi, Niv, PBC, and Pem. The safety outcome analysis revealed Niv+Ipi was generally well tolerated compared to existing immunotherapy regimens. These results provide clinical information regarding the efficacy and safety of Niv+Ipi and indicate the possibility of the Niv+Ipi combination as a new therapeutic option in PD-L1-positive advanced NSCLC.

Antibodies and Immunity During Kawasaki Disease

The cause of Kawasaki disease (KD), the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children, is currently unknown. Epidemiology studies support that an infectious disease is involved in at least starting the inflammatory cascade set off during KD. Clues from epidemiology support that humoral immunity can have a protective effect. However, the role of the immune system, particularly of B cells and antibodies, in pathogenesis of KD is still unclear. Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and other therapies targeted at modulating inflammation can prevent development of coronary aneurysms. A number of autoantibody responses have been reported in children with KD and antibodies have been generated from aneurysmal plasma cell infiltrates. Recent reports show that children with KD have similar plasmablast responses as other children with infectious diseases, further supporting an infectious starting point. As ongoing studies are attempting to identify the etiology of KD through study of antibody responses, we sought to review the role of humoral immunity in KD pathogenesis, treatment, and recovery.

Comparison of second-line therapy in IVIg-refractory Kawasaki disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Evidence remains contradictory regarding second-line therapy in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) refractory to initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg). The objective of this study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of three treatments [i.e. a second IVIg infusion, methylprednisolone (IVMP), and infliximab (IFX)] in patients with refractory KD.

METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and ClinicalTrials.gov using predefined MeSH terms was performed from 1990 through 2017. Relevance screening was performed by two independent reviewers. Inclusion criteria included English-only, original clinical data. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Fever resolution, coronary lesions, and adverse event outcomes were extracted and pooled for analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 388 patients included from the 8 studies analyzed, a majority received a second IVIg dose (n = 263, 68%). Fever resolution was comparable between IVIg (72%) and IVMP (73%). IFX (88%) significantly increased fever resolution by approximately 20% compared to IVIg re-dose (RR 1.2; [95% CI: 1.1-1.4]; p = 0.03) and IVMP (RR 1.2; [95% CI: 1.0-1.5]; p = 0.04). Clinical significance of differences in coronary outcomes remains unclear.

CONCLUSIONS

This combined analysis was limited due to variability in design and data reporting methods between the studies and risk of bias. In the absence of a clinical trial, IFX monotherapy as second-line treatment should be considered in patients who fail to respond to initial IVIg. This conclusion is based on a systematic review of the literature with pooled outcome data analysis suggesting IFX is more effective in fever resolution compared to a second IVIg dose and IVMP.