Designing an optimal HIV programme for South Africa: Does the optimal package change when diminishing returns are considered?

A Review and Economic Analysis of the Dapivirine Vaginal Ring as HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for Women, to Inform South African Public-Sector Guidelines

BACKGROUND

South Africa has a high HIV incidence and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is available as public-sector standard of care. Access to alternative prevention methods for women may further reduce HIV acquisition.

SETTING

South African public sector.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search for high-quality up-to-date guidelines recommending dapivirine rings as PrEP using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation -Adolopment process. We appraised the systematic review and randomized controlled trial (RCT) evidence underpinning the selected guideline's recommendations and conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation evidence-to-decision framework guided the adaptation of source guideline recommendations, according to our local context.

RESULTS

We identified the 2021 World Health Organization PrEP Guidelines, informed by 2 placebo-controlled RCTs, which were included in a contemporaneous systematic review. There were 23 fewer HIV acquisitions per 1000 clients with dapivirine ring vs placebo (95% confidence interval: 10 to 34), with no increase in adverse events (moderate certainty evidence). We found no RCTs comparing dapivirine to oral PrEP or among adolescent/pregnant/breastfeeding clients. Dapivirine is less cost-effective than oral PrEP at $14.59/ring, at the current price.

CONCLUSIONS

The source guideline recommendation was adapted for the local context. Dapivirine ring seems to be less efficacious than oral PrEP, although comparative studies are lacking. Data on adolescents and pregnancy are also lacking, currently limiting the use of dapivirine as an alternative for women unable to take oral PrEP. At the current price, dapivirine is not cost-effective and unaffordable for inclusion in the South African Essential Medicines List.

Transgender-Specific Differentiated HIV Service Delivery Models in the South African Public Primary Health Care System (Jabula Uzibone): Protocol for an Implementation Study

BACKGROUND

Almost 60% of transgender people in South Africa are living with HIV. Ending the HIV epidemic will require that transgender people successfully access HIV prevention and treatment. However, transgender people often avoid health services due to facility-based stigma and lack of availability of gender-affirming care. Transgender-specific differentiated service delivery (TG-DSD) may improve engagement and facilitate progress toward HIV elimination. Wits RHI, a renowned South African research institute, established 4 TG-DSD demonstration sites in 2019, with funding from the US Agency for International Development. These sites offer unique opportunities to evaluate the implementation of TG-DSD and test their effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE

The Jabula Uzibone study seeks to assess the implementation, effectiveness, and cost of TG-DSD for viral suppression and prevention-effective adherence.

METHODS

The Jabula Uzibone study collects baseline and 12-month observation checklists at 8 sites and 6 (12.5%) key informant interviews per site at 4 TG-DSD and 4 standard sites (n=48). We seek to enroll ≥600 transgender clients, 50% at TG-DSD and 50% at standard sites: 67% clients with HIV and 33% clients without HIV per site type. Participants complete interviewer-administered surveys quarterly, and blood is drawn at baseline and 12 months for HIV RNA levels among participants with HIV and tenofovir levels among participants on pre-exposure prophylaxis. A subset of 30 participants per site type will complete in-depth interviews at baseline and 12 months: 15 participants will be living with HIV and 15 participants will be HIV negative. Qualitative analyses will explore aspects of implementation; regression models will compare viral suppression and prevention-effective adherence by site type. Structural equation modeling will test for mediation by stigma and gender affirmation. Microcosting approaches will estimate the cost per service user served and per service user successfully treated at TG-DSD sites relative to standard sites, as well as the budget needed for a broader implementation of TG-DSD.

RESULTS

Funded by the US National Institutes of Mental Health in April 2022, the study was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee at University of Witwatersrand in June 2022 and the Duke University Health System Institutional Review Board in June 2023. Enrollment began in January 2024. As of July 31, 2024, a total of 593 transgender participants have been enrolled: 348 are living with HIV and 245 are HIV negative. We anticipate baseline enrollment will be complete by August 31, 2024, and the final study visit will take place no later than August 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

Jabula Uzibone will provide data to inform HIV policies and practices in South Africa and generate the first evidence for implementation of TG-DSD in sub-Saharan Africa. Study findings may inform the use of TG-DSD strategies to increase care engagement and advance global progress toward HIV elimination goals.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/64373.

Profile and outcome of multiple myeloma with and without HIV treated at a tertiary hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To profile the outcome of multiple myeloma (MM) patients treated at a South African tertiary hospital in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and to compare MM in HIV-negative patients and MM in people living with HIV (PLWH).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients with MM was conducted over 5 years (2015-2020). Patient demographics, presenting complaints, symptom duration, disease stage, molecular profile, treatment, and survival data were captured. Statistical analysis was conducted using R Statistical software of the R Core Team, 2020, version 3.6.3.

RESULTS

135 patients; 79% (n = 106) HIV-negative and 21% (n = 29) PLWH were investigated. 54% (n = 74) females and 57% (n = 76) 51-70-year-olds. The 40-50-year-old patient group had a significantly higher proportion of PLWH (p = 0.032). Pathological fractures were the commonest presenting complaint, 47% (n = 57 and 49% (n = 49) had International Staging System, stage III disease. Fluorescent in-situ hybridization (FISH) MM profiling was completed in 58% (n = 78). Positivity for del 11q22 was found in 23.7% (n = 14) with significantly more HIV-negative patients having the mutation (p = 0.027). Overall, 42.2% (n = 57) achieved 2-year overall survival (OS). There were no significant differences in treatment (p = 0.926) and 2-year survival outcome (p = 0.792) between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of HIV in newly diagnosed MM patients in KZN was increasing. KZN patient profile differed from other reports by showing female predominance but was similar in advanced-stage presentation and bone fracture predominance. Statistically significant differences between the HIV-negative patients and PLWH were observed in age distribution and mutational landscape. Further studies are required in this area.

Implementation and resource needs for long-acting PrEP in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are preparing to introduce long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis (LAP). Amid multiple pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) options and constrained funding, decision-makers could benefit from systematic implementation planning and aligned costs. We reviewed national costed implementation plans (CIPs) to describe relevant implementation inputs and activities (domains) for informing the costed rollout of LAP. We assessed how primary costing evidence aligned with those domains.

METHODS

We conducted a rapid review of CIPs for oral PrEP and family planning (FP) to develop a consensus of implementation domains, and a scoping review across nine electronic databases for publications on PrEP costing in LMICs between January 2010 and June 2022. We extracted cost data and assessed alignment with the implementation domains and the Global Health Costing Consortium principles.

RESULTS

We identified 15 implementation domains from four national PrEP plans and FP-CIP template; only six were in all sources. We included 66 full-text manuscripts, 10 reported LAP, 13 (20%) were primary cost studies-representing seven countries, and none of the 13 included LAP. The 13 primary cost studies included PrEP commodities (n = 12), human resources (n = 11), indirect costs (n = 11), other commodities (n = 10), demand creation (n = 9) and counselling (n = 9). Few studies costed integration into non-HIV services (n = 5), above site costs (n = 3), supply chains and logistics (n = 3) or policy and planning (n = 2), and none included the costs of target setting, health information system adaptations or implementation research. Cost units and outcomes were variable (e.g. average per person-year).

DISCUSSION

LAP planning will require updating HIV prevention policies, technical assistance for logistical and clinical support, expanding beyond HIV platforms, setting PrEP achievement targets overall and disaggregated by method, extensive supply chain and logistics planning and support, as well as updating health information systems to monitor multiple PrEP methods with different visit schedules. The 15 implementation domains were variable in reviewed studies. PrEP primary cost and budget data are necessary for new product introduction and should match implementation plans with financing.

CONCLUSIONS

As PrEP services expand to include LAP, decision-makers need a framework, tools and a process to support countries in planning the systematic rollout and costing for LAP.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomedical, Non-Surgical HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Considerable evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of biomedical, non-surgical interventions to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission has been generated over the last decade. This study aims to synthesize findings and identify remaining knowledge gaps to suggest future research priorities.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was carried out in August 2020 using the MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health and EconLit databases to retrieve economic evaluations and costing studies of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), injectable long-acting PrEP, vaginal microbicide rings and gels, HIV vaccines and broadly neutralizing antibodies. Studies reporting costs from the provider or societal perspective were included in the analysis. Those reporting on behavioural methods of prevention, condoms and surgical approaches (voluntary medical male circumcision) were excluded. The quality of reporting of the included studies was assessed using published checklists.

RESULTS

We identified 3007 citations, of which 87 studies were retained. Most were set in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; n = 53) and focused on the costs and/or cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP regimens (n = 70). Model-based economic evaluations were the most frequent study design; only two trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses and nine costing studies were found. Less than half of the studies provided practical details on how the intervention would be delivered by the health system, and only three of these, all in LMICs, explicitly focused on service integration and its implication for delivery costs. 'Real-world' programme delivery mechanisms and costs of intervention delivery were rarely considered. PrEP technologies were generally found to be cost-effective only when targeting high-risk subpopulations. Single-dose HIV vaccines are expected to be cost-effective for all groups despite substantial uncertainty around pricing.

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of primary, detailed and updated cost data, including above-service level costs, from a variety of settings makes it difficult to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of specific delivery modes at scale, or to evaluate strategies for services integration. Closing this evidence gap around real-world implementation is vital, not least because the strategies targeting high-risk groups that are recommended by PrEP models may incur substantially higher costs and be of limited practical feasibility in some settings.

Evaluation of Community-Based, Mobile HIV-Care, Peer-Delivered Linkage Case Management in Manzini Region, Eswatini

The success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) requires continuous engagement in care and optimal levels of adherence to achieve sustained HIV viral suppression. We evaluated HIV-care cascade costs and outcomes of a community-based, mobile HIV-care, peer-delivered linkage case-management program (CommLink) implemented in Manzini region, Eswatini. Abstraction teams visited referral facilities during July 2019-April 2020 to locate, match, and abstract the clinical data of CommLink clients diagnosed between March 2016 and March 2018. An ingredients-based costing approach was used to assess economic costs associated with CommLink. The estimated total CommLink costs were $2 million. Personnel costs were the dominant component, followed by travel, commodities and supplies, and training. Costs per client tested positive were $499. Costs per client initiated on ART within 7, 30, and 90 days of diagnosis were $2114, $1634, and $1480, respectively. Costs per client initiated and retained on ART 6, 12, and 18 months after diagnosis were $2343, $2378, and $2462, respectively. CommLink outcomes and costs can help inform community-based HIV testing, linkage, and retention programs in other settings to strengthen effectiveness and improve efficiency.

Relative cost-effectiveness of long-acting injectable cabotegravir versus oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in South Africa based on the HPTN 083 and HPTN 084 trials: a modelled economic evaluation and threshold analysis

BACKGROUND

Long-acting injectable cabotegravir, a drug taken every 2 months, has been shown to be more effective at preventing HIV infection than daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine, but its cost-effectiveness in a high-prevalence setting is not known. We aimed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of long-acting injectable cabotegravir compared with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine in South Africa, using methods standard to government planning, and to determine the threshold price at which long-acting injectable cabotegravir is as cost-effective as tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine.

METHODS

In this modelled economic evaluation and threshold analysis, we updated a deterministic model of the South African HIV epidemic with data from the HPTN 083 and HPTN 084 trials to evaluate the effect of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine and long-acting injectable cabotegravir provision to heterosexual adolescents and young women and men aged 15-24 years, female sex workers, and men who have sex with men. We estimated the average intervention cost, in 2021 US$, using ingredients-based costing, and modelled the cost-effectiveness of two coverage scenarios (medium or high, assuming higher uptake of long-acting injectable cabotegravir than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine throughout) and, for long-acting injectable cabotegravir, two duration subscenarios (minimum: same pre-exposure prophylaxis duration as for tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine; maximum: longer duration than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine) over 2022-41.

FINDINGS

Across long-acting injectable cabotegravir scenarios, 15-28% more new HIV infections were averted compared with the baseline scenario (current tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine roll-out). In scenarios with increased coverage with oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine, 4-8% more new HIV infections were averted compared with the baseline scenario. If long-acting injectable cabotegravir drug costs were equal to those of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine for the same 2-month period, the incremental cost of long-acting injectable cabotegravir to the HIV programme was higher than that of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (5-10% vs 2-4%) due to higher assumed uptake of long-acting injectable cabotegravir. The cost per infection averted was $6053-6610 (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine) and $4471-6785 (long-acting injectable cabotegravir). The cost per long-acting cabotegravir injection needed to be less than twice that of a 2-month supply of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine to remain as cost-effective, with threshold prices ranging between $9·03 per injection (high coverage; maximum duration) and $14·47 per injection (medium coverage; minimum duration).

INTERPRETATION

Long-acting injectable cabotegravir could potentially substantially change HIV prevention. However, for its implementation to be financially feasible across low-income and middle-income countries with high HIV incidence, long-acting injectable cabotegravir must be reasonably priced.

FUNDING

United States Agency for International Development, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of condom use on the HIV epidemic

Background: Condom promotion and supply was one the earliest interventions to be mobilized to address the HIV pandemic. Condoms are inexpensive and provide protection against transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) as well as against unintended pregnancy. As many as 16 billion condoms may be used annually in all low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). In recent years the focus of HIV programs as been on testing and treatment and new technologies such as PrEP. Rates of condom use have stopped increasing short of UNAIDS targets and funding from donors is declining. Methods: We applied a mathematical HIV transmission model to 77 high HIV burden countries to estimate the number of HIV infections that would have occurred from 1990 to 2019 if condom use had remained at 1990 levels. Results: The results suggest that current levels of HIV would be five times higher without condom use and that the scale-up in condoms use averted about 117 million HIV infections. Conclusions: HIV programs should ensure that affordable condoms are consistently available and that the benefits of condom use are widely understood.

Emotive Media as a Counterbalance to AIDS Messaging Fatigue in South Africa: Responses to an HIV/AIDS Awareness Music Video

South Africa recorded and estimated 230,000 new infections in 2020, and low levels of AIDS risk awareness remain prevalent among the nation's youth. While public health awareness initiatives continue to be necessary, the large quantity of AIDS-related content that has permeated the media landscape since the start of the epidemic has resulted in increasing indifference to health messaging. Drawing from the concept of referent emotional responses, this article analyzes the reception of "Sing," an HIV/AIDS awareness music video characterized by emotive visual representations of AIDS. The data highlight ongoing fatigue towards HIV/AIDS messaging and the potential of highly emotive media to engage target audiences in a climate of indifference to AIDS awareness. The article recommends that future awareness and prevention campaigns consider the role of emotive content in effective AIDS-related health promotion in South Africa.

Understanding the Evolving Role of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision as a Public Health Strategy in Eastern and Southern Africa: Opportunities and Challenges

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) has been a cornerstone of HIV prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and is credited in part for declines in HIV incidence seen in recent years. However, these HIV incidence declines change VMMC cost-effectiveness and how it varies across populations.

RECENT FINDINGS

Mathematical models project continued cost-effectiveness of VMMC in much of ESA despite HIV incidence declines. A key data gap is how demand generation cost differs across age groups and over time as VMMC coverage increases. Additionally, VMMC models usually neglect non-HIV effects of VMMC, such as prevention of other sexually transmitted infections and medical adverse events. While small compared to HIV effects in the short term, these could become important as HIV incidence declines. Evidence to date supports prioritizing VMMC in ESA despite falling HIV incidence. Updated modeling methodologies will become necessary if HIV incidence reaches low levels.

An economic evaluation of an intervention to increase demand for medical male circumcision among men aged 25-49 years in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Studies estimate that circumcising men between the ages of 20-30 years who have exhibited previous risky sexual behaviour could reduce overall HIV prevalence. Demand creation strategies for medical male circumcision (MMC) targeting men in this age group may significantly impact these prevalence rates.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of an implementation science, pre-post study designed to increase the uptake of male circumcision for ages 25-49 at a fixed MMC clinic located in Gauteng Province, South Africa.

METHODS

A health care provider perspective was utilised to collect all costs. Costs were compared between the standard care scenario of routine outreach strategies and a full intervention strategy. Cost-effectiveness was measured as cost per mature man enrolled and cost per mature man circumcised. A cost-benefit analysis was employed by using the Bernoulli model to estimate the cases of HIV averted due to medical male circumcision (MMC), and subsequently translated to averted medical costs.

RESULTS

In the 2015 intervention, the cost of the intervention was $9445 for 722 men. The total HIV treatment costs averted due to the intervention were $542,491 from a public care model and $378,073 from a private care model. The benefit-cost ratio was 57.44 for the public care model and 40.03 for the private care model. The net savings of the intervention were $533,046 or $368,628 - depending on treatment in a public or private setting.

CONCLUSIONS

The intervention was cost-effective compared to similar MMC demand interventions and led to statistically significant cost savings per individual enrolled.

The impact of condom use on the HIV epidemic

Background: Condom promotion and supply was one the earliest interventions to be mobilized to address the HIV pandemic. Condoms are inexpensive and provide protection against transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) as well as against unintended pregnancy. As many as 16 billion condoms may be used annually in all low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). In recent years the focus of HIV programs as been on testing and treatment and new technologies such as PrEP. Rates of condom use have stopped increasing short of UNAIDS targets and funding from donors is declining. Methods: We applied a mathematical HIV transmission model to 77 high HIV burden countries to estimate the number of HIV infections that would have occurred from 1990 to 2019 if condom use had remained at 1990 levels. Results: The results suggest that current levels of HIV would be five times higher without condom use and that the scale-up in condoms use averted about 117 million HIV infections. Conclusions: HIV programs should ensure that affordable condoms are consistently available and that the benefits of condom use are widely understood.

"Out there it's YOLO": Youth perspectives on a mass media HIV- and gender-based violence campaign in South Africa

Gender-based violence continues to be a leading determinant of South Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic. As such, gender socialisation and de-normalisation of gender inequality and violence remain principal objectives for public health organisations. This article discusses youth reception of a mass media HIV/AIDS prevention campaign targeting gender inequality. Applying social cognitive theory to the analysis of focus group data highlights three interrelated challenges to encouraging positive self-efficacy in gender-based violence and HIV prevention: (1) HIV/ AIDS-related media saturation; (2) AIDS messaging fatigue; and (3) challenges reconciling popular youth culture with gender equity messaging. The article recommends public health and social justice organisations consider a flexible approach to the ideological or behavioural congruence of potential celebrity ambassadors and/or media to maximise youth appeal and reduce messaging fatigue.

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance

INTRODUCTION

Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation.

METHODS

We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (1) PrEP availability for adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years and female sex workers, and (2) availability for everyone aged 15-64 years. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programs.

RESULTS

In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 years, there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24 years. PrEP was cost-effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective.

Mathematical Model Impact Analysis of a Real-Life Pre-exposure Prophylaxis and Treatment-As-Prevention Study Among Female Sex Workers in Cotonou, Benin

BACKGROUND

Daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment-as-prevention (TasP) reduce HIV acquisition and transmission risk, respectively. A demonstration study (2015-2017) assessed TasP and PrEP feasibility among female sex workers (FSW) in Cotonou, Benin.

SETTING

Cotonou, Benin.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model featuring PrEP and antiretroviral therapy (ART) among the high-risk (FSW and clients) and low-risk populations, calibrated to historical epidemiological and demonstration study data, reflecting observed lower PrEP uptake, adherence and retention compared with TasP. We estimated the population-level impact of the 2-year study and several 20-year intervention scenarios, varying coverage and adherence independently and together. We report the percentage [median, 2.5th-97.5th percentile uncertainty interval (95% UI)] of HIV infections prevented comparing the intervention and counterfactual (2017 coverages: 0% PrEP and 49% ART) scenarios.

RESULTS

The 2-year study (2017 coverages: 9% PrEP and 83% ART) prevented an estimated 8% (95% UI 6-12) and 6% (3-10) infections among FSW over 2 and 20 years, respectively, compared with 7% (3-11) and 5% (2-9) overall. The PrEP and TasP arms prevented 0.4% (0.2-0.8) and 4.6% (2.2-8.7) infections overall over 20 years, respectively. Twenty-year PrEP and TasP scale-ups (2035 coverages: 47% PrEP and 88% ART) prevented 21% (17-26) and 17% (10-27) infections among FSW, respectively, and 5% (3-10) and 17% (10-27) overall. Compared with TasP scale-up alone, PrEP and TasP combined scale-up prevented 1.9× and 1.2× more infections among FSW and overall, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The demonstration study impact was modest, and mostly from TasP. Increasing PrEP adherence and coverage improves impact substantially among FSW, but little overall. We recommend TasP in prevention packages.

Modelling impact and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in 13 low-resource countries

INTRODUCTION

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries.

METHODS

We projected the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout scenarios involving three priority populations-female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW)-both with and without geographic prioritization. We applied the model to 13 countries (Eswatini, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The base case assumed achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy targets, 90% male circumcision coverage by 2020 and 90% efficacy and adherence levels for oral PrEP.

RESULTS

In the scenarios we examined, oral PrEP averted 3% to 8% of HIV infections across the 13 countries between 2018 and 2030. For all but three countries, more than 50% of the HIV infections averted by oral PrEP in the scenarios we examined could be obtained by rollout to FSWs and SDCs alone. For several countries, expanding oral PrEP to include medium-risk AGYW in all regions greatly increased the impact. The efficiency and impact benefits of geographic prioritization of rollout to AGYW varied across countries. Variations in cost-effectiveness across countries reflected differences in HIV incidence and expected variations in unit cost. For most countries, rolling out oral PrEP to FSWs, SDCs and geographically prioritized AGYW was not projected to have a substantial impact on the supply chain for antiretroviral drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

These modelling results can inform prioritization, target-setting and other decisions related to oral PrEP scale-up within combination prevention programmes. We caution against extensive use given limitations in cost data and implementation approaches. This analysis highlights some of the immediate challenges facing countries-for example, trade-offs between overall impact and cost-effectiveness-and emphasizes the need to improve data availability and risk assessment tools to help countries make informed decisions.

Opportunities for improved HIV prevention and treatment through budget optimization in Eswatini

INTRODUCTION

Eswatini achieved a 44% decrease in new HIV infections from 2014 to 2019 through substantial scale-up of testing and treatment. However, it still has one of the highest rates of HIV incidence in the world, with 14 infections per 1,000 adults 15-49 years estimated for 2017. The Government of Eswatini has called for an 85% reduction in new infections by 2023 over 2017 levels. To make further progress towards this target and to achieve maximum health gains, this study aims to model optimized investments of available HIV resources.

METHODS

The Optima HIV model was applied to estimate the impact of efficiency strategies to accelerate prevention of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. We estimated the number of infections and deaths that could be prevented by optimizing HIV investments. We optimize across HIV programs, then across service delivery modalities for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral refill, as well as switching to a lower cost antiretroviral regimen.

FINDINGS

Under an optimized budget, prioritising HIV testing for the general population followed by key preventative interventions may result in approximately 1,000 more new infections (2% more) being averted by 2023. More infections could be averted with further optimization between service delivery modalities across the HIV cascade. Scaling-up index and self-testing could lead to 100,000 more people getting tested for HIV (25% more tests) with the same budget. By prioritizing Fast-Track, community-based, and facility-based antiretroviral refill options, an estimated 30,000 more people could receive treatment, 17% more than baseline or US$5.5 million could be saved, 4% of the total budget. Finally, switching non-pregnant HIV-positive adults to a Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy regimen and concentrating delivery of VMMC to existing fixed facilities over mobile clinics, US$4.5 million (7% of total budget) and US$6.6 million (10% of total budget) could be saved, respectively.

SIGNIFICANCE

With a relatively short five-year timeframe, even under a substantially increased and optimized budget, Eswatini is unlikely to reach their ambitious national prevention target by 2023. However, by optimizing investment of the same budget towards highly cost-effective VMMC, testing, and treatment modalities, further reductions in HIV incidence and cost savings could be realized.

The impact of self-selection based on HIV risk on the cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision to different populations in South Africa, with and without effective self-selection by individuals at highest risk of contracting HIV (through concurrent partnerships and/or commercial sex).

DESIGN AND METHODS

We used a previously developed HIV transmission model to analyse the epidemiological impact of PrEP provision to adolescents, young adults, pregnant women, female sex workers (FSWs) and (MSM), and data from South African PrEP programmes to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP (cost in 2019 USD per HIV infection averted over 20 years, 2019, 38). PrEP uptake followed data from early implementation sites, scaled-up linearly over 3 years, with target coverage set to 18% for adolescents, young adults and pregnant women, 30% for FSW and 54% for MSM.

RESULTS

The annual cost of PrEP provision ranges between $75 and $134 per person. PrEP provision adolescents and young adults, regardless of risk behaviour, will each avert 3.2--4.8% of HIV infections over 20 years; provision to high-risk individuals only has similar impact at lower total cost. The incremental cost per HIV infection averted is lower in high-risk vs. all-risk sub-populations within female adolescents ($507 vs. $4537), male adolescents ($2108 vs. $5637), young women ($1592 vs. $10 323) and young men ($2605 vs. $7715), becoming cost saving within 20 years for high-risk adolescents, young women, MSM and FSWs.

CONCLUSION

PrEP is an expensive prevention intervention but uptake by those at the highest risk of HIV infection will make it more cost-effective, and cost-saving after 14-18 years.

When Global ART Budgets Cannot Cover All Patients, Who Should Be Eligible?

BACKGROUND

Widely expected cuts to budgets for global HIV/AIDS response force hard prioritization choices.

SETTING

We examine policies for antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility through the lens of the most relevant ethical approaches.

METHODS

We compare earlier ART eligibility to later ART eligibility in terms of saving the most lives, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years, special consideration for the sickest, special consideration for those who stand to benefit the most, special consideration for recipients' own health needs, and special consideration to avoid denying ART permanently.

RESULTS

We argue that, in most low- and middle-income countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, ethically, ART for sicker patients should come before ART eligibility for healthier ones immediately on diagnosis (namely, before "universal test and treat"). In particular, reserving all ART for sicker patients would usually save more life-years, prioritize the sickest, and display other properties that some central ethical approaches find important, and that concern none-so ethically, it is "cross-theoretically dominant," as we put it.

CONCLUSIONS

In most circumstances of depressed financing in low- and middle-income countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, reserving all ART for sicker patients is more ethical than the current international standard.

Optimal allocation of HIV resources among geographical regions

BACKGROUND

Health resources are limited, which means spending should be focused on the people, places and programs that matter most. Choosing the mix of programs to maximize a health outcome is termed allocative efficiency. Here, we extend the methodology of allocative efficiency to answer the question of how resources should be distributed among different geographic regions.

METHODS

We describe a novel geographical optimization algorithm, which has been implemented as an extension to the Optima HIV model. This algorithm identifies an optimal funding of services and programs across regions, such as multiple countries or multiple districts within a country. The algorithm consists of three steps: (1) calibrating the model to each region, (2) determining the optimal allocation for each region across a range of different budget levels, and (3) finding the budget level in each region that minimizes the outcome (such as reducing new HIV infections and/or HIV-related deaths), subject to the constraint of fixed total budget across all regions. As a case study, we applied this method to determine an illustrative allocation of HIV program funding across three representative oblasts (regions) in Ukraine (Mykolayiv, Poltava, and Zhytomyr) to minimize the number of new HIV infections.

RESULTS

Geographical optimization was found to identify solutions with better outcomes than would be possible by considering region-specific allocations alone. In the case of Ukraine, prior to optimization (i.e. with status quo spending), a total of 244,000 HIV-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated to occur from 2016 to 2030 across the three oblasts. With optimization within (but not between) oblasts, this was estimated to be reduced to 181,000. With geographical optimization (i.e., allowing reallocation of funds between oblasts), this was estimated to be further reduced to 173,000.

CONCLUSIONS

With the increasing availability of region- and even facility-level data, geographical optimization is likely to play an increasingly important role in health economic decision making. Although the largest gains are typically due to reallocating resources to the most effective interventions, especially treatment, further gains can be achieved by optimally reallocating resources between regions. Finally, the methods described here are not restricted to geographical optimization, and can be applied to other problems where competing resources need to be allocated with constraints, such as between diseases.

The impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of modelling contributions and way forward

INTRODUCTION

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a new form of HIV prevention being considered for inclusion in national prevention portfolios. Many mathematical modelling studies have been undertaken that speak to the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP programmes. We assess the available evidence from mathematical modelling studies to inform programme planning and policy decision making for PrEP and further research directions.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of the published modelling literature. Articles published in English which modelled oral PrEP in sub-Saharan Africa, or non-specific settings with relevance to generalized HIV epidemic settings, were included. Data were extracted for the strategies of PrEP use modelled, and the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP for each strategy. We define an algorithm to assess the quality and relevance of studies included, summarize the available evidence and identify the current gaps in modelling. Recommendations are generated for future modelling applications and data collection.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We reviewed 1924 abstracts and included 44 studies spanning 2007 to 2017. Modelling has reported that PrEP can be a cost-effective addition to HIV prevention portfolios for some use cases, but also that it would not be cost-effective to fund PrEP before other prevention interventions are expanded. However, our assessment of the quality of the modelling indicates cost-effectiveness analyses failed to comply with standards of reporting for economic evaluations and the assessment of relevance highlighted that both key parameters and scenarios are now outdated. Current evidence gaps include modelling to inform service development using updated programmatic information and ex post modelling to evaluate and inform efficient deployment of resources in support of PrEP, especially among key populations, using direct evidence of cost, adherence and uptake patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated modelling which more appropriately captures PrEP programme delivery, uses current intervention scenarios, and is parameterized with data from demonstration and implementation projects is needed in support of more conclusive findings and actionable recommendations for programmes and policy. Future analyses should address these issues, aligning with countries to support the needs of programme planners and decision makers for models to more directly inform programme planning and policy.

Adding Lithium to Drinking Water for Suicide Prevention—The Ethics

Recent observations associate naturally occurring trace levels of Lithium in ground water with significantly lower suicide rates. It has been suggested that adding trace Lithium to drinking water could be a safe and effective way to reduce suicide. This article discusses the many ethical implications of such population-wide Lithium medication. It compares this policy to more targeted solutions that introduce trace amounts of Lithium to groups at higher risk of suicide or lower risk of adverse effects. The question of mass treatment with Lithium recalls other choices in public health between population-wide and more targeted interventions. The framework we propose could be relevant to some of these other dilemmas.

Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions

Background

Child stunting due to chronic malnutrition is a major problem in low- and middle-income countries due, in part, to inadequate nutrition-related practices and insufficient access to services. Limited budgets for nutritional interventions mean that available resources must be targeted in the most cost-effective manner to have the greatest impact. Quantitative tools can help guide budget allocation decisions.

Methods

The Optima approach is an established framework to conduct resource allocation optimization analyses. We applied this approach to develop a new tool, ‘Optima Nutrition’, for conducting allocative efficiency analyses that address childhood stunting. At the core of the Optima approach is an epidemiological model for assessing the burden of disease; we use an adapted version of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Six nutritional interventions have been included in the first release of the tool: antenatal micronutrient supplementation, balanced energy-protein supplementation, exclusive breastfeeding promotion, promotion of improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices, public provision of complementary foods, and vitamin A supplementation. To demonstrate the use of this tool, we applied it to evaluate the optimal allocation of resources in 7 districts in Bangladesh, using both publicly available data (such as through DHS) and data from a complementary costing study.

Results

Optima Nutrition can be used to estimate how to target resources to improve nutrition outcomes. Specifically, for the Bangladesh example, despite only limited nutrition-related funding available (an estimated $0.75 per person in need per year), even without any extra resources, better targeting of investments in nutrition programming could increase the cumulative number of children living without stunting by 1.3 million (an extra 5%) by 2030 compared to the current resource allocation. To minimize stunting, priority interventions should include promotion of improved IYCF practices as well as vitamin A supplementation. Once these programs are adequately funded, the public provision of complementary foods should be funded as the next priority. Programmatic efforts should give greatest emphasis to the regions of Dhaka and Chittagong, which have the greatest number of stunted children.

Conclusions

A resource optimization tool can provide important guidance for targeting nutrition investments to achieve greater impact.

Revealed willingness-to-pay versus standard cost-effectiveness thresholds: Evidence from the South African HIV Investment Case

BACKGROUND

The use of cost-effectiveness thresholds based on a country's income per capita has been criticized for not being relevant to decision making, in particular in middle-income countries such as South Africa. The recent South African HIV Investment Case produced an alternative cost-effectiveness threshold for HIV prevention and treatment interventions based on estimates of life years saved and the country's committed HIV budget.

METHODS

We analysed the optimal mix of HIV interventions over a baseline of the current HIV programme under the committed HIV budget for 2016-2018. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as cost per life-year saved (LYS) of 16 HIV prevention and treatment interventions over 20 years (2016-2035). We iteratively evaluated the most cost effective option (defined by an intervention and its coverage) over a rolling baseline to which the more cost effective options had already been added, thereby allowing for diminishing marginal returns to interventions. We constrained the list of interventions to those whose combined cost was affordable under the current HIV budget. Costs are presented from the government perspective, unadjusted for inflation and undiscounted, in 2016 USD.

RESULTS

The current HIV budget of about $1.6 billion per year was sufficient to pay for the expansion of condom availability, medical male circumcision, universal treatment, and infant testing at 6 weeks to maximum coverage levels, while also implementing a social and behavior change mass media campaign with a message geared at increasing testing uptake and reducing the number of sexual partners. The combined ICER of this package of services was $547/ LYS. The ICER of the next intervention that was above the affordability threshold was $872/LYS.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the South African HIV Investment Case point to an HIV cost-effectiveness threshold based on affordability under the current budget of $547-872 per life year saved, a small fraction of the country's GDP per capita of about $6,000.