Cost of illness for childhood diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review of evidence and modelled estimates

Spatiotemporal analysis of diarrhea-related hospitalizations of children in Brazil's Midwest region from 2011 to 2020

OBJECTIVE

To examine spatiotemporal variability and identify clustering patterns of hospitalization rates for diarrhea in children younger than five years in Mato Grosso, Brazil, from 2011 to 2020.

METHODS

An ecological study was conducted using hospitalization records associated with diarrhea from the Brazilian Hospital Information System/Unified Health System. The relative risk of hospitalization for diarrhea in each municipality was calculated using SaTScan software considering a statistical significance level of 5% and 999 Monte Carlo replications.

RESULTS

A total of 13,315 diarrhea-associated hospitalizations for 5-year-old children were recorded. From 2011 to 2020, the annual rates for hospitalizations related to diarrhea decreased from 8.50 to 3.45/1,000 live births among children younger than one year and from 4.99 to 1.57 for children aged 1-4 years. Clusters of municipalities with high relative risk for hospitalizations due to diarrhea, statistically significant, predominated in the North, Northeast, and Southwest health administrative macro-regions of Mato Grosso for both age groups until 2016. From 2016 to 2020, clusters of the lowest relative risk were identified in the North and Center South health administrative macro-regions for children younger than five years.

CONCLUSION

Results showed that hospitalization rates for diarrhea in children younger than five years reduced with the presence of low-risk clusters in Mato Grosso in the final years of the study. Public health surveillance should incorporate spatial analysis to investigate the diarrhea-related morbidity.

Evaluation of non-invasive diagnostic tools for diarrhea: a systematic review of point-of-care tests and biomarkers

Background

Diarrhea is a prevalent condition affecting millions worldwide. However, current standard diagnostic methods have many drawbacks. This review examines various non-invasive point-of-care (POC) tests and biomarkers aiding rapid diagnosis of diarrhea from different causes.

Methods

PubMed, PubMed Central, ScienceDirect, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar were searched from 2013 to present for relevant literature. Two reviewers independently assessed included studies' quality using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist.

Results

The search yielded 1453 studies, of which 39 were included after screening and applying eligibility criteria. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was the POC test in 25 studies, providing consistent sensitivity and specificity. For biomarkers, C-reactive protein (CRP), fecal calprotectin, and procalcitonin offered high sensitivity and specificity for conditions like acute pediatric diarrhea, microscopic colitis, and inflammatory diarrhea, respectively.

Conclusion

PCR proved the ideal POC test for rapid diarrhea diagnosis, while the procalcitonin biomarker helps differentiate inflammatory from non-inflammatory diarrhea. Other reviewed tools also demonstrated promising diagnostic performance, though improvements in sensitivity, specificity, and usability are still needed.

Food diversity: its relation to children's health and consequent economic burden

BACKGROUND

This study investigates the impact of low food diversity on the health status of children using the Dietary Diversity Score (DDS) and Dietary Serving Score (DSS) in a sub-district with the highest percentage of poor households. The economic burden of low food diversity was observed by analysing the cost of illness in the children with low food diversity.

METHODS

Data from 329 children were collected. We determined the impact of DDS and DSS and other factors on the health status of children aged 2-14 years, using a probit model. The cost of illness (e.g., typhus, stomach ulcers, coughs, flu, and fever) due to low food diversity was calculated from medical registration fees, medical action costs, transportation costs, and other costs.

RESULTS

The results shows that a 1% point increase in DDS or DSS potentially decreases children's health complaints by 10% and 8%, respectively. Given the current 26% prevalence of health complaints among children with low DDS, the annual economic burden reaches US$75.72 per child per household. In addition, the current 41% prevalence of children with low DDS resulted in an annual cost to the government of US$153.45 per child.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of inadequate dietary diversity on children's health is potentially high and contributes to the economic burden on households and the government.

Quantifying the Cost of Shigella Diarrhea in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella Surveillance Study

Background

Comparative costs of public health interventions provide valuable data for decision making. However, the availability of comprehensive and context-specific costs is often limited. The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study-a facility-based diarrhea surveillance study across 7 countries-aims to generate evidence on health system and household costs associated with medically attended Shigella diarrhea in children.

Methods

EFGH working groups comprising representatives from each country (Bangladesh, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Pakistan, Peru, and The Gambia) developed the study methods. Over a 24-month surveillance period, facility-based surveys will collect data on resource use for the medical treatment of an estimated 9800 children aged 6-35 months with diarrhea. Through these surveys, we will describe and quantify medical resources used in the treatment of diarrhea (eg, medication, supplies, and provider salaries), nonmedical resources (eg, travel costs to the facility), and the amount of caregiver time lost from work to care for their sick child. To assign costs to each identified resource, we will use a combination of caregiver interviews, national medical price lists, and databases from the World Health Organization and the International Labor Organization. Our primary outcome will be the estimated cost per inpatient and outpatient episode of medically attended Shigella diarrhea treatment across countries, levels of care, and illness severity. We will conduct sensitivity and scenario analysis to determine how unit costs vary across scenarios.

Conclusions

Results from this study will contribute to the existing body of literature on diarrhea costing and inform future policy decisions related to investments in preventive strategies for Shigella.

Anti-diarrheal effect of piperine possibly through the interaction with inflammation inducing enzymes: In vivo and in silico studies

Piperine is a natural alkaloid that possesses a variety of therapeutic properties, including anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antibacterial, and anticarcinogenic activities. The present study aims to assess the medicinal benefits of piperine as an anti-diarrheal agent in a chick model by utilizing in vivo and in silico techniques. For this, castor oil was administered orally to 2-day-old chicks to cause diarrhea. Bismuth subsalicylate (10 mg/kg), loperamide (3 mg/kg), and nifedipine (2.5 mg/kg) were used as positive controls, while the vehicle was utilized as a negative control. Two different doses (25 and 50 mg/kg b.w.) of the test sample (piperine) were administered orally, and the highest dose was tested with standards to investigate the synergistic activity of the test sample. In our findings, piperine prolonged the latent period while reducing the number of diarrheal feces in the experimental chicks during the monitoring period (4 h). At higher doses, piperine appears to reduce diarrheal secretion while increasing latency in chicks. Throughout the combined pharmacotherapy, piperine outperformed bismuth subsalicylate and nifedipine in terms of anti-diarrheal effects with loperamide. In molecular docking, piperine exhibited higher binding affinities towards different inflammatory enzymes such as cyclooxygenase 1 (-7.9 kcal/mol), cyclooxygenase 2 (-8.4 kcal/mol), nitric oxide synthases (-8.9 kcal/mol), and L-type calcium channel (-8.8 kcal/mol), indicating better interaction of PP with these proteins. In conclusion, piperine showed a potent anti-diarrheal effect in castor oil-induced diarrheal chicks by suppressing the inflammation and calcium ion influx induced by castor oil.

Population modifiable risk factors associated with under-5 acute respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea in 25 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2014-2021): an analysis of data from demographic and health surveys

Background

Identifying the critical modifiable risk factors for acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) and diarrhoea is crucial to reduce the burden of disease and mortality among children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and ultimately achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated the modifiable risk factors of ARI and diarrhoea among children under five using nationally representative surveys.

Methods

We used the most recent demographic and health survey (DHS) data (2014-2021) from 25 SSA countries, encompassing a total of 253,167 children. Countries were selected based on the availability of recent datasets (e.g., DHS-VII or DHS-VIII) that represent the current socioeconomic situations. Generalised linear latent mixed models were used to compute odds ratios (ORs). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using adjusted ORs and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors among ARI and diarrhoeal cases.

Findings

This study involved 253,167 children, with a mean age of 28.7 (±17.3) months, and 50.5% were male. The highest PAFs for ARI were attributed to unclean cooking fuel (PAF = 15.7%; 95% CI: 8.1, 23.1), poor maternal education (PAF = 13.4%; 95% CI: 8.7, 18.5), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (PAF = 12.4%; 95% CI: 9.0, 15.3), and poor toilets (PAF = 8.5%; 95% CI: 4.7, 11.9). These four modifiable risk factors contributed to 41.5% (95% CI: 27.2, 52.9) of ARI cases in SSA. The largest PAFs of diarrhoea were observed for unclean cooking fuel (PAF = 17.3%; 95% CI: 13.5, 22.3), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (PAF = 9.2%; 95% CI: 7.5, 10.5), household poverty (PAF = 7.0%; 95% CI: 5.0, 9.1) and poor maternal education (PAF = 5.6%; 95% CI: 2.9, 8.8). These four modifiable risk factors contributed to 34.0% (95% CI: 26.2, 42.3) of cases of diarrhoea in SSA.

Interpretation

This cross-sectional study identified four modifiable risk factors for ARI and diarrhoea that should be a priority for policymakers in SSA. Enhancing home-based care and leveraging female community health workers is crucial for accelerating the reduction in under-5 mortality linked to ARI and diarrhoea in SSA.

Funding

None.

Determinants, inequalities, and spatial patterns of diarrhea in the Peruvian under-five population: findings from nationally representative survey data

Objective

To determine the associated factors, decompose the socioeconomic inequalities, and analyze the spatial distribution of childhood diarrhea in Peru.

Methods

A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted using data from the National Demographic and Family Health Survey 2021. The dependent variable was the presence of diarrhea in the last two weeks. Three types of analysis were performed: (i) to evaluate the associated factors, generalized linear models of the Poisson family with logarithmic link were applied and prevalence ratios with their 95% confidence intervals were reported; (ii) for the analysis of inequalities, a decomposition of the Erreygers concentration index was performed using a generalized linear model; and (ii) a spatial autocorrelation analysis, hot spot analysis and cluster and outlier analysis were performed.

Results

A total of 18,871 children under 5 years of age were included. The prevalence of diarrhea in this population was 10.0%. Determinants such as being aged 0-23 months, being male, belonging to the poorest, poorer and rich wealth index, and residing in the Highlands and Jungle increased the probability of presenting diarrhea. In the decomposition analysis, diarrhea had a pro-poor orientation, with the greatest contributors were age 0-23 months, belonging to the poorest and poorer wealth indexes, and residing in the Highlands and Jungle. Spatial analysis showed that the highest concentrations and occurrence of this event were observed in departments of the Highlands and Jungle.

Conclusion

Government institutions seeking to reduce the numbers and burden of childhood diarrhea should focus their strategies on promoting hygiene measures and improving access to water and sanitation services, especially in poor populations living in the Peruvian Highlands and Jungle.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of Shigella vaccination in 102 low-income and middle-income countries in children aged 5 years or younger: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness models have mostly focused on acute burden. Shigella-attributable moderate-to-severe diarrhoea has been shown to be associated with childhood linear growth faltering. Evidence also links less severe diarrhoea to linear growth faltering. As Shigella vaccines are in late stages of clinical development, we aimed to estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against Shigella burden that includes stunting and the acute burden attributable to less severe diarrhoea and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used a simulation model to estimate Shigella burden and potential vaccination in children aged 5 years or younger from 102 low-income to middle-income countries from 2025 to 2044. Our model included stunting associated with Shigella-related moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and less severe diarrhoea and we explored vaccination impact on health and economic outcomes.

FINDINGS

We estimate 109 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39-204) Shigella-attributable stunting cases and 1·4 million (0·8-2·1) deaths in unvaccinated children over 20 years. We project that Shigella vaccination could avert 43 million (13-92) stunting cases and 590 000 (297 000-983 000) deaths over 20 years. The overall mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$849 (95% uncertainty interval 423-1575; median $790 [IQR 635-1005]) per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Vaccination was most cost-effective in the WHO African region and in low-income countries. Including the burden of Shigella-related less severe diarrhoea improved mean ICERs by 47-48% for these groups and substantially improved ICERs for other regions.

INTERPRETATION

Our model suggests that Shigella vaccination would be a cost-effective intervention, with a substantial impact in specific countries and regions. Other regions could potentially benefit upon the inclusion of the burden of Shigella-related stunting and less severe diarrhoea in the analysis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome Trust.

Prevalence, antimicrobial resistance pattern, and associated factors of Salmonella and Shigella among under five diarrheic children attending public health facilities in Debre Markos town, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Under five children are at risk of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality. Salmonella and Shigella are major causes of diarrhea in under-five children, especially in developing countries. This study aimed to assess the prevalence, antimicrobial resistance pattern, and associated factors of Salmonella and Shigella among under-five diarrheic children in Debre Markos town public health facilities.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted at public health facilities in Debre Markos town using a consecutive convenient sampling technique. Data on socio-demographic and associated factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. Salmonella serovars and Shigella species were identified using MacConkey, Xylose Lysine Deoxycholate, Salmonella Shigella agar, and biochemical tests. The antimicrobial resistance pattern was determined by using the modified Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion technique.

Results

The overall prevalence of Salmonella and Shigella was 11.7% (26/222; 95% CI = 7.2-17.5%). Isolated Salmonella serovars showed a higher rate of resistance (85.7%, 6/7) for both Ampicillin and Amoxicillin/Clavulanic acid while Shigella isolates showed a higher resistance rate to Amoxicillin/Clavulanic acid (78.9%, 15/19) and Ampicillin (73.7%, 14/19). The overall multidrug resistance (MDR) rate of Salmonella and Shigella isolates was 88.5% (23/26). Parent/guardian educational status ≤ elementary school (AOR = 3.783; 95% CI = 1.28-11.19; P = 0.016), presence of two or more under-five children in the family (AOR = 8.999; 95% CI = 2.93-27.69; P < 0.001), unimproved source of drinking water (AOR = 5.010; 95% CI = 1.56-16.10; P = 0.007), the habit of storing cooked foods for later use (AOR = 3.199; 95% CI = 1.07-9.54; P = 0.037), attendance of the child at social gatherings (AOR = 5.387; 95% CI = 1.78-16.35; P = 0.003), and infrequent child fingernail trimming (every ≥ 2 weeks; AOR = 4.693; 95% CI = 1.47-14.94; P = 0.009) showed statistically significant association with the prevalence of culture-confirmed Salmonella and Shigella isolates.

Conclusion

The prevalence of culture-confirmed Salmonella and Shigella isolates was significantly high in the study area. Salmonella and Shigella isolates exhibited a high rate of MDR pattern. Parent/guardian education level below the elementary school, the presence of two or more under-five children in the family, using unimproved water source, a habit of storing cooked food, and infrequent fingernail trimming were independent predictors of culture-confirmed Salmonella and Shigella. Therefore, besides public health measures, regular surveillance of the prevalence and antimicrobial resistance pattern of Salmonella and Shigella should be routinely practiced in the study setting.

Diarrheal disease, sanitation, and culture in India

The health burden of childhood diarrhea in India has been a major public health concern. This study examines the role of the individualism-collectivism dichotomy in the prevalence of diarrhea in children under the age of five in India. Using subnational data on rice suitability to measure collectivism, we provide evidence that collectivism is negatively associated with the prevalence of childhood diarrhea across 618 Indian districts. We find that the mechanism works through improvements in water and sanitation. Collectivism propagates values of interdependence, cooperation and collective action which increases safe water and sanitation practices, thereby reducing the prevalence of diarrhea in children.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of injectable next-generation rotavirus vaccines in 137 LMICs: a modelling study

While current live, oral rotavirus vaccines (LORVs) are reducing severe diarrhea everywhere, their effectiveness is lower in high burden settings. Alternative approaches are in advanced stages of clinical development, including injectable next-generation rotavirus vaccine (iNGRV) candidates, which have the potential to better protect children, be combined with existing routine immunizations and be more affordable than current LORVs. In an effort to better understand the real public health value of iNGRVs and to help inform decisions by international agencies, funders, and vaccine manufacturers, we conducted an impact and cost-effectiveness analysis examining 20 rotavirus vaccine use cases. We evaluated several currently licensed LORVs, one neonatal oral NGRV (oNGRV), one iNGRV, and one iNGRV-DTP (iNGRV comprising part of a DTP-containing combination) over a ten-year timeframe in 137 low- and middle-income countries. The most promising use case identified was a high efficacy iNGRV-DTP, predicted to have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$1.4 billion), the highest vaccine benefit (750,000 rotavirus deaths averted, 13 million rotavirus hospital admissions averted, US$ 2.7 billion health-care cost averted), and most favorable cost-effectiveness (cost-saving). iNGRV-DTP vaccine remained the most affordable, safe, and cost-effective option even when it was assumed to have equivalent efficacy to the current LORVs. This study shows that while the development of iNGRVs with superior efficacy to currently licensed LORVs would be ideal, iNGRVs with similar efficacy to LORVs would offer substantial public health value. It also highlights the economic value of accelerating the development of DTP-based combination vaccines that include iNGRV to provide rotavirus protection.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in China: Comparison between private market provision and national immunization programs

In China, progress to include the RV vaccine in the national immunization program (NIP) is slow. The only two vaccines, the Lanzhou lamb rotavirus vaccine (LLR) and Rotateq, are provided through the private market. This study aims to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of using three vaccines in the NIP, Rotateq, Rotarix, and LLR, compared to the status quo. A decision-tree Markov model was adopted to follow the 2019 birth cohort, and a societal perspective was used. Input parameters were based on the latest local data when possible. Outcomes included cases and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses to consider herd immunity and vaccine price reduction were performed. Including Rotateq in the NIP was projected to prevent 348 million RVGE cases (62.6% reduction) and 4251 deaths (72.6% reduction) compared to the status quo. Rotarix through the NIP would prevent 48.7% of cases and 63.2% of deaths, and LLR would avert 20.3% of cases and 22.4% of deaths. The ICERs per QALY gained were US$ 8833 for Rotateq through the NIP, US$ 9503 for Rotarix, and US$ 26,759 for LLR. In uncertainty analyses, the reduction of vaccine prices and the incorporation of herd immunity further improved the cost-effectiveness of the NIPs, especially Rotateq or Rotarix. In conclusion, introducing the RV vaccine in China's NIP is expected to be cost-effective compared to the GDP per capita. Reducing vaccine prices and adopting vaccines with better efficacy would be the future focus.

Medical cost of acute diarrhea in children in ambulatory care

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the direct medical cost per episode and the annual cost for acute diarrhea (AD) in children under five years of age in Ambulatory Care Centers of the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) of Ecuador.

METHODS

A cost of illness study with a provider perspective was carried out through a micro-costing of health resources and valuated in international dollars. Medical consultations and laboratory tests were valued using the tariff framework of services for the National Health System and for the prescribed medications, a reported cost registry of pharmacy purchases made in the year of study was used.

RESULTS

A total of 332 electronic health records of children under five years of age were included in the analysis. Laboratory tests were performed on 37.95% (126/332), medications were prescribed to 93.67% (311/332) of the children, and antimicrobials were prescribed to 37.35% (124/332) of the children, representing an antibiotic prescription rate of 26.51% (88/332) and an antiparasitic prescription rate of 10.84% (36/332). The mean cost of the MOPH per child per episode of AD was US$45.24 (2019 dollars) (95% CI:43.71 to 46.76).

CONCLUSION

The total estimated cost of AD in children under five years of age for the MOPH in 2019 was about US$6,645,167.88 million (2019 dollars) (95% CI: 6,420,430.77 to 6,868,436.12). A high proportion of the direct medical cost of AD in children under five years of age in outpatient settings is due to unnecessary laboratory tests.

Efficacy and safety of Bacillus clausii (O/C, N/R, SIN, T) probiotic combined with oral rehydration therapy (ORT) and zinc in acute diarrhea in children: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in India

Background

Childhood diarrhea remains a major disease burden, particularly in developing countries, and is a leading cause of death in children aged < 5 years, worldwide. Treatment of acute diarrhea now includes probiotics to potentially reduce the duration and severity of the illness. This phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study assessed the efficacy and safety of four strains (O/C, N/R, SIN, T) of Bacillus clausii probiotic (Enterogermina®) plus oral rehydration therapy (ORT) and zinc, versus placebo plus ORT and zinc, in infants and children in India with acute moderate diarrhea.

Methods

Patients aged 6 months to 5 years with acute moderate diarrhea (WHO 2005 definition) of < 48 h’ duration were randomly assigned to receive one mini bottle of either polyantibiotic-resistant B. clausii (oral suspension of 2 billion spores per 5 mL bottle) or matching placebo twice daily (morning and evening) for 5 days. Exclusion criteria included known hypersensitivity to B. clausii or excipients in the study treatment, or to other probiotics. Patients were admitted to hospital from Day 1 and discharged ≥6 h after diarrhea resolution, or a maximum of 5 days. The primary endpoint was duration of acute diarrhea from randomization to recovery. Secondary endpoints included frequency of stools, diapers with stools, or dehydration status.

Results

In total, 457 patients were randomized; 454 were treated. Similar proportions of patients showed recovery from diarrhea over the 120 h after randomization (97.0% in the B. clausii group [n = 227]; 98.0% on placebo [n = 227]). Median time to recovery was also similar: 42.83 (95% CI: 40.90–44.90) hours for B. clausii and 42.13 (95% CI: 39.80–43.87) hours for placebo. However, no statistically significant difference was observed between groups (hazard ratio = 0.93 [95% CI: 0.77–1.13]; p = 0.6968); nor were there statistically significant differences between groups for the secondary endpoints. Treatment with B. clausii was well tolerated with incidence of adverse events (9.7%) similar to that for placebo (12.3%).

Conclusions

No significant difference in efficacy between B. clausii and placebo was demonstrated. Sample size may have been inadequate to allow detection of a between-group difference in efficacy, given the mild/moderate severity (only ~ 20% of patients had nausea/vomiting or abdominal pains) and short duration of disease among subjects, the relatively late start of treatment (most were already on Day 2 of their disease episode when study treatment started) and the effectiveness of the standard of care with ORT and zinc in both treatment groups.

Trial registration

CTRI number CTRI/2018/10/016053. Registered on 17 October 2018. EudraCT number 2016-005165-31. Registered 14 May 2020 (retrospectively registered).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40794-022-00166-6.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Niger: a modelling study evaluating alternative rotavirus vaccines

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative rotavirus vaccines in Niger, using UNIVAC, a proportionate outcomes model.

SETTING

The study leverages global, regional and local data to inform cost-effectiveness modelling. Local data were collected as part of a clinical trial taking place in the Madarounfa district, Maradi region, Niger.

PARTICIPANTS

The study models impact of infants vaccination on rotavirus gastroenteritis in children under 5 years of age.

INTERVENTIONS

We compared the use of ROTARIX (GlaxoSmithKline, Belgium), ROTAVAC (Bharat Biotech, India) and ROTASIIL (Serum Institute, India) to no vaccination and to each other over a 10-year period starting in 2021.

RESULTS

We estimated that ROTARIX, ROTAVAC and ROTASIIL would each prevent 13 million cases and 20 000 deaths of children under 5 years over a 10-year period in Niger. Compared with no vaccination, the cost to avert a disability-adjusted life-year was US$146 with ROTARIX, US$107 with ROTASIIL and US$76 with ROTAVAC from the government perspective. ROTAVAC dominated ROTARIX and ROTASIIL (eg, provided similar or higher benefits at a lower cost) and had 90% chance to be cost-effective at a US$100 willingness-to-pay threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

This study can inform decision-making around rotavirus vaccination policy in Niger, demonstrating that ROTAVAC is likely the most cost-effective option. Alternative products (ROTASIIL and ROTARIX) may also be considered by decision-makers if they are priced more competitively, or if their cold chain requirements could bring additional economic benefits.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Mozambique

Introduction

Rotavirus is one of the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children, with the largest mortality burden in low- and middle-income countries. To prevent rotavirus gastroenteritis, Mozambique introduced ROTARIX® vaccine in 2015, however, its cost-effectiveness has never been established in the country. In 2018, additional vaccines became available globally. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of the recently introduced ROTARIX in Mozambique and compares the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® to inform future use.

Methods

We used a decision-support model to calculate the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination with ROTARIX compared to no vaccination over a five-year period (2016–2020) and to compare the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX, ROTAVAC, and ROTASIIL to no vaccination and to each other over a ten-year period (2021–2030). The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from a government perspective. We assessed uncertainty through sensitivity analyses.

Results

From 2016 to 2020, we estimate the vaccine program with ROTARIX cost US$12.3 million, prevented 4,628 deaths, and averted US$3.1 million in healthcare costs. The cost per DALY averted was US$70. From 2021 to 2030, we estimate all three vaccines could prevent 9,000 deaths and avert US$7.8 million in healthcare costs. With Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi) support, ROTARIX would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$31 million) and 98 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5x GDP per capita. Without Gavi support, ROTASIIL would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$75.8 million) and 30 % probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold.

Conclusion

ROTARIX vaccination had a substantial public health impact in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020. ROTARIX is currently estimated to be the most cost-effective product, but the choice of vaccine should be re-evaluated as more evidence emerges on the price, incremental delivery cost, wastage, and impact associated with each of the different rotavirus vaccines.

Machine learning predictive modelling for identification of predictors of acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea in Uganda's rural and urban settings

Despite the widely known preventive interventions, the dyad of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and diarrhoea remain among the top global causes of mortality in under- 5 years. Studies on child morbidity have enormously applied "traditional" statistical techniques that have limitations in handling high dimension data, which leads to the exclusion of some variables. Machine Learning (ML) models appear to perform better on high dimension data (dataset with the number of features p (usually correlated) larger than the number of observations N). Using Uganda's 2006-2016 DHS pooled data on children aged 6-59 months, I applied ML techniques to identify rural-urban differentials in the predictors of child's diarrhoea and ARI. I also used ML to identify other omitted variables in the current child morbidity frameworks. The predictors were grouped into four categories: child characteristics, maternal characteristics, household characteristics and immunisation. I used 90% of the datasets as a training sets (dataset used to fit (train) a prediction model), which were tested or validated (dataset (pseudo new) used for evaluating the performance of the model on a new dataset) on 10% and 30% datasets. The measure of prediction was based on a 10-fold cross-validation (resampling technique). The gradient-boosted machine (ML technique) was the best-selected model for the identification of the predictors of ARI (Accuracy: 100% -rural and 100%-urban) and diarrhoea (Accuracy: 70%-rural and 100%-urban). These factors relate to the household's structure and composition, which is characterised by poor hygiene and sanitation and poor household environments that make children more suspectable of developing these diseases; maternal socio-economic factors such as education, occupation, and fertility (birth order); individual risk factors such as child age, birth weight and nutritional status; and protective interventions (immunisation). The study findings confirm the notion that ARI and diarrhoea risk factors overlap. The results highlight the need for a holistic approach with multisectoral emphasis in addressing the occurrence of ARI and diarrhoea among children. In particular, the results provide an insight into the importance of implementing interventions that are responsive to the unique structure and composition of the household. Finally, alongside traditional models, machine learning could be applied in generating research hypotheses and providing insight into the selection of key variables that should be considered in the model.

Spatiotemporal patterns of diarrhea incidence in Ghana and the impact of meteorological and socio-demographic factors

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea remains a significant public health problem and poses a considerable financial burden on Ghana's health insurance scheme. In order to prioritize district-level hotspots of diarrhea incidence for effective targeted interventions, it is important to understand the potential drivers of spatiotemporal patterns of diarrhea. We aimed to identify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of diarrhea incidence in Ghana and explore how meteorological and socio-demographic factors influence the patterns.

METHODS

We used monthly district-level clinically diagnosed diarrhea data between 2012 and 2018 obtained from the Centre for Health Information and Management of the Ghana Health Services. We utilized a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between district-level monthly diarrhea incidence and meteorological variables (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, surface water presence) and socio-demographic factors (population density, Gini index, District League Table score) in Ghana. In addition, we investigated whether these associations were consistent across the four agro-ecological zones.

RESULTS

There was considerable spatial heterogeneity in diarrhea patterns across the districts, with clusters of high diarrhea risk areas mostly found in the transition and savannah zones. The average monthly temporal patterns of diarrhea revealed a weak biannual seasonality with major and minor peaks in June and October, respectively, coinciding with the major and minor rainy seasons. We found a significant association between both meteorological and socio-demographic factors and diarrhea risk, but the strength and direction of associations differed across the four agro-ecological zones. Surface water presence demonstrated consistently positive, while diurnal temperature range and population density demonstrated consistently negative associations with diarrhea both overall and across the agro-ecological zones.

CONCLUSIONS

Although overall diarrhea incidence is declining in Ghana, our results revealed high-risk districts that could benefit from district-specific tailored intervention strategies to improve control efforts. Ghana health sector policy-makers can use these results to assess the effectiveness of ongoing interventions at the district level and prioritize resource allocation for diarrhea control.

Direct and indirect costs of acute diarrhea in children under five years of age in Indonesia: Health facilities and community survey

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea remains a major cause of child morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Reliable data on the economic burden of diarrhea is required to support the selection of appropriate health intervention programs. This study aimed to estimate the costs of acute diarrhea in children under five years of age in Indonesia, a large middle-income country with a substantial diarrheal burden.

METHODS

Direct medical cost data were extracted retrospectively for 1050 children under five years of age with acute diarrhea receiving inpatient care across 45 health facilities in seven Indonesian provinces during 2017-2020. Direct medical costs for children treated in outpatient settings were estimated by collecting unit costs associated with standard diarrhea case management in children. A structured interview of 240 caregivers of inpatients was also conducted retrospectively to estimate direct non-medical costs as well as indirect costs from caregiver income loss.

RESULTS

The weighted average direct medical cost for treatment of acute diarrhea as an inpatient and outpatient across health facility types was US$99.8 (SD±$56.8)(35% room costs, 29% professional fees, 26% medication costs, 10% diagnostic costs) and US$7.6 (SD±$4.3) (34% diagnostic costs, 28% medication costs, 27% professional fees, 10% registration fees), respectively. The average direct non-medical household cost for an acute diarrheal admission was US$4.90 and the indirect cost was US$9.90.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant economic burden associated with acute diarrhea in children in Indonesia. This study, based on a wide variety of health care settings and geographical regions, provides data to inform the economic evaluation of rotavirus vaccines and other diarrheal prevention programs.

FUNDING

This work was supported by a research grant from the Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI) and PATH; and the Indonesian Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (ITAGI).

Sustainability Assessment for Wastewater Treatment Systems in Developing Countries

As the assessment of the economic, environmental, institutional, and social sustainability of wastewater treatment systems may have several conceivable goals and intended recipients, there are numerous different approaches. This paper surveys certain aspects of sustainability assessment that may be of interest to the planners of wastewater treatment systems. Here, the key criteria assess the system’s costs and financing, including its affordability for the users, the environmental impact, the benefits for health and hygiene, the cultural acceptance of the system and its recycled products, the technical functioning, and the administrative, political, and legal framework for its construction and operation. A multi-criteria approach may then be used to analyze possible trade-offs and identify the most suitable system for a certain location.

Is the Medium Still the Message? Culture-Independent Diagnosis of Gastrointestinal Infections

Infectious diarrhea is caused by a variety of pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, and parasitic organisms. Though the causative agent of diarrhea has historically been evaluated via stool cultures, recently, culture-independent diagnostic tests (CIDT) have been developed and utilized with increasing frequency. Current practice guidelines recommend their use as adjuncts to stool cultures for diagnosing acute and chronic diarrhea. The three principal CIDT are microscopy, enzyme-based immunoassays (EIAs), and molecular based polymerase chain reaction (PCR). This review explores the common causes of infectious diarrhea, the basics of stool culture, the diagnostic utility of these three culture-independent modalities, and the strengths and weaknesses of all currently available clinical techniques. It also outlines considerations for specific populations including returning travelers and those with inflammatory bowel disease.

Which Probiotic Is the Most Effective for Treating Acute Diarrhea in Children? A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Acute diarrhea is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children under five. Probiotics are beneficial for treating acute diarrhea in children, but unclear which specific probiotic is the most effective. We performed a Bayesian network meta-analysis to examine the comparative effectiveness of probiotics. By searching EMBASE, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library up to 31 March 2021, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on probiotics for treating acute diarrhea in children were included. Primary outcomes included the duration of diarrhea and diarrhea lasting ≥2 days, and secondary outcomes included the mean stool frequency on day 2 and duration of hospitalization, fever, and vomiting. We assessed the certainty of the evidence of outcomes according to Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) guideline. Eighty-four studies with twenty-one different interventions in 13,443 children were included. For the primary outcomes, moderate evidence indicated that, Lactobacillus reuteri [mean difference (MD) = -0.84 day; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.39, -0.29], Bifidobacterium lactis (MD = -0.98 day; 95%CI, -1.82, -0.14), Saccharomyces boulardii (MD = -1.25 day; 95%CI, -1.59, -0.91), Lactobacillus species (spp.) plus Bifidobacterium spp. plus Saccharomyces spp. (MD = -1.19 day; 95%CI, -1.81, -0.58), and Bacillus spp. plus Enterococcus spp. plus Clostridium spp. (MD = -1.1 day; 95%CI, -1.84, -0.35) significantly reduced the duration of diarrhea when compared with placebo. Saccharomyces boulardii [Odds ratio (OR) = 0.22; 95%CI, 0.11, 0.41] and Lactobacillus reuteri (OR = 0.23; 95%CI, 0.090, 0.60) significantly reduced the risk of diarrhea lasting ≥2 days when compared with placebo or no treatment, with moderate evidence. Among all probiotics, Saccharomyces boulardii may be the most effective in reducing both duration of diarrhea (compared with placebo) and risk of diarrhea lasting ≥2 days (compared with placebo or no treatment), with moderate evidence. To be conclusive, Saccharomyces boulardii may be the most effective probiotic for treating acute diarrhea in children, followed by several other single-strain and multi-strain probiotics.

Evaluating the potential economic and health impact of rotavirus vaccination in 63 middle-income countries not eligible for Gavi funding: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Middle-income countries (MICs) that are not eligible for funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, have been slow to adopt rotavirus vaccines. Few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness and benefit-risk of rotavirus vaccination in these settings. We aimed to assess the potential economic and health impact of rotavirus vaccination in 63 MICs not eligible for funding from Gavi.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and benefit-risk of rotavirus vaccination in 63 MICs not eligible to Gavi funding. We used an Excel-based proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate the number of rotavirus gastroenteritis cases, clinic visits, hospitalisations, and deaths averted by vaccination in children younger than 5 years over a 10-year period. We calculated cost-effectiveness ratios (costs per disability-adjusted life-years averted compared with no vaccination) and benefit-risk ratios (number of hospitalisations due to rotavirus gastroenteritis averted per excess hospitalisations due to intussusception). We evaluated three alternative vaccines available globally (Rotarix, Rotavac, and Rotasiil) and used information from vaccine manufacturers regarding anticipated vaccine prices. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses.

FINDINGS

Over the period 2020-29, rotavirus vaccines could avert 77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 51-103) cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 21 million (12-36) clinic visits, 3 million (1·4-5·6) hospitalisations, and 37 900 (25 900-55 900) deaths due to rotavirus gastroenteritis in 63 MICs not eligible for Gavi support. From a government perspective, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective in 48 (77%) of 62 MICs considered. The benefit-risk ratio for hospitalisations prevented versus those potentially caused by vaccination exceeded 250:1 in all countries.

INTERPRETATION

In most MICs not eligible for Gavi funding, rotavirus vaccination has high probability to be cost-effective with a favourable benefit-risk profile. Policy makers should consider this new evidence when making or revisiting decisions on the use of rotavirus vaccines in their respective countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Community Case Management of Childhood Diarrhea in Burundi

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of community case management (CCM) program of childhood diarrhea by providing oral rehydration salts and zinc through community health workers in Burundi.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis study using a Markov modeling approach was undertaken to assess the CCM program of diarrhea from both provider and societal perspectives. The CCM program was compared with the routine management of childhood diarrhea at health facilities. Primary data on the cost of childhood diarrhea management were collected. Both economic and health outcomes were assessed for a period of 5 years, and a discount rate of 3% was applied. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The CCM program was found to be both less costly and more effective resulting to a negative value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, indicating that the program was dominant producing cost savings. Compared with the routine treatment of diarrhea at health facilities, the CCM program would avert 2749 additional disability-adjusted life years over a period of 5 years. The economic burden was reduced of US$1 056 699 and US$2 328 531 from the provider and societal perspectives, respectively. The cost-effectiveness estimates were mostly sensitive to the discount rate and the cost of outpatient visits at health facilities. The intervention remained dominant with a 100% probability of cost savings within 10 000 simulations of the sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing inexpensive diarrheal treatment (oral rehydration salts and zinc) in communities is an attractive cost-effective intervention. Evidence from this study should be used to scale up the coverage of this life- and cost-saving intervention.

Paediatrics: how to manage viral gastroenteritis

Background

Viral gastroenteritis is the most common diarrhoeal disorder seen in general practice and emergency departments. This article aims to provide a narrative updated review on the evaluation and management of viral gastroenteritis in children.

Methods

A PubMed search was performed with Clinical Queries using the key term 'viral gastroenteritis'. The search strategy included clinical trials, meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, observational studies and reviews. The search was restricted to the English literature and the paediatric population.

Results

Acute viral gastroenteritis is usually self-limiting. However, it can lead to dehydration and electrolyte imbalance if not properly treated. Adequate fluids containing physiological concentrations of glucose and electrolytes should be provided to compensate for gastrointestinal losses and cover maintenance needs. Oral rehydration therapy is as effective as intravenous (IV) fluid therapy for rehydration for children with mild-to-moderate dehydration. Measurements of serum electrolytes, creatinine and glucose are usually not necessary and should only be considered in a subset of children with severe dehydration who require hospitalization and IV therapy. Judicious use of ondansetron can increase the success rate of oral rehydration therapy and minimize the need for IV therapy and hospitalization.

Conclusion

Acute viral gastroenteritis is associated with substantial morbidity in developed countries and significant mortality in developing countries. Physicians should educate caregivers on proper personal hygiene and handwashing to prevent faecal to oral transmission of the pathogen as well as the importance of rotavirus vaccine in the prevention of rotavirus gastroenteritis. Several norovirus vaccines are currently undergoing clinical trials with promising results. It is hoped that development of an effective norovirus vaccine will further reduce the incidence of viral gastroenteritis.

Diarrhea hospitalization costs among children <5 years old in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Following a recommendation by the World Health Organization, Madagascar introduced rotavirus vaccine in 2014. Though national rotavirus vaccine coverage has remained <80%, rotavirus hospitalizations declined by 78%. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has provided financial support for rotavirus vaccine, however the Malagasy government has increasing responsibility for the financial cost.

METHODS

In this evaluation, we describe the direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect cost of illness due to diarrhea among children <5 years old at a public pediatric referral hospital. A 3-part structured questionnaire was administered during and following the hospitalization and the child's hospital record was reviewed.

RESULTS

In total, 96 children were included in this analysis. The median total cost of the illness was $156.00 (IQR: 104.00, 210.86) and the median direct medical cost was $107.22. Service delivery costs represented a median of 44% of the inpatient costs; medications and diagnostic tests represented a median of 28% and 20% of the total costs of the hospitalization, respectively. The median percentage of the total illness costs paid by the household was 67%. Among households with income of <$61/month, the median costs of the illness paid by the household were $78.55, representing a median of 168% of the household's monthly expenses. Among households earning >$303/month, the median costs paid by the household were $147.30, representing a median of 53% of the household's monthly expenses. Among all household income levels, caregivers commonly paid these bills from savings, borrowed money, and donations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings will be useful in assessing the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccine by decisionmakers. These results may also help hospital administrators and healthcare providers better understand the financial constraints of families.