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Wei Y, Ma Y, Zhang T, Luo X, Yin F, Shui T. Spatiotemporal patterns and risk mapping of provincial hand, foot, and mouth disease in mainland China, 2014-2017. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1291361. [PMID: 38344231 PMCID: PMC10853440 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1291361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has remained a serious public health threat since its first outbreak in China. Analyzing the province-level spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD and mapping the relative risk in mainland China will help determine high-risk provinces and periods of infection outbreaks for use in formulating new priority areas for prevention and control of this disease. Furthermore, our study examined the effect of air pollution on HFMD nationwide, which few studies have done thus far. Methods Data were collected on the number of provincial monthly HFMD infections, air pollution, meteorological variables, and socioeconomic variables from 2014 to 2017 in mainland China. We used spatial autocorrelation to determine the aggregate distribution of HFMD incidence. Spatiotemporal patterns of HFMD were analyzed, risk maps were developed using the Bayesian spatiotemporal model, and the impact of potential influencing factors on HFMD was assessed. Results In our study, from 2014 to 2017, the HFMD annual incidence rate in all provinces of mainland China ranged from 138.80 to 203.15 per 100,000 people, with an average annual incidence rate of 165.86. The temporal risk of HFMD for 31 Chinese provinces exhibited cyclical and seasonal characteristics. The southern and eastern provinces had the highest spatial relative risk (RR > 3) from 2014 to 2017. The HFMD incidence risk in provinces (Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing) located in central China increased over time. Among the meteorological variables, except for the mean two-minute wind speed (RR 0.6878; 95% CI 0.5841, 0.8042), all other variables were risk factors for HFMD. High GDP per capita (RR 0.9922; 95% CI 0.9841, 0.9999) was a protective factor against HFMD. The higher the birth rate was (RR 1.0657; 95% CI 1.0185, 1.1150), the higher the risk of HFMD. Health workers per 1,000 people (RR 1.2010; 95% CI 1.0443, 1.3771) was positively correlated with HFMD. Conclusions From 2014 to 2017, the central provinces (Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing) gradually became high-risk regions for HFMD. The spatiotemporal pattern of HFMD risk may be partially attributed to meteorological and socioeconomic factors. The prevalence of HFMD in the central provinces requires attention, as prevention control efforts should be strengthened there.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxin Wei
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yue Ma
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Tao Zhang
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xuelian Luo
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Fei Yin
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Tiejun Shui
- Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
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Zhao C, Nie S, Sun Y, An C, Fan S, Luo B, Chang W, Liu K, Shao Z. Detrended seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors combined with spatiotemporal effect on the prevalence of human brucellosis. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:104043-104055. [PMID: 37698797 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-29699-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/13/2023]
Abstract
Human brucellosis (HB) is a seasonal and climate-affected infectious disease that is posing an increasing threat to public health and economy. However, most of the research on the seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB did not consider the secular trend and spatiotemporal effect related to the disease. We herein utilized long-term surveillance data on HB from 2008 to 2020 using sinusoidal models to explore detrended relationships between climatic factors and HB. In addition, we assessed the impact of such climatic factors on HB using a spatial panel data model combined with the spatiotemporal effect. HB peaked around mid-May. HB was significantly correlated with climatic factors with 1-5-month lag when the respective correlations reached the maximum across the different lag periods. Each 0.1 °C increase in temperature led to 0.5% decrease in the 5-month lag incidence of HB. We also observed a positive spatiotemporal effect on the disease. Our study provides a detailed and in-depth overview of seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB. In addition, it proposes a novel approach for exploring the seasonal relationships and quantifying the impacts of climatic factors on various infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenxi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China
- Department of Pediatrics, Xijing Hospital, the Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Shoumin Nie
- Department of Plague and Brucellosis, Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Yangxin Sun
- Department of Plague and Brucellosis, Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Cuihong An
- Department of Plague and Brucellosis, Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Suoping Fan
- Department of Plague and Brucellosis, Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Boyan Luo
- Department of Plague and Brucellosis, Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Wenhui Chang
- Department of Plague and Brucellosis, Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Kun Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China
| | - Zhongjun Shao
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China.
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Wen L, Yang D, Li Y, Lu D, Su H, Tang M, Song X. Spatial Effect of Ecological Environmental Factors on Mumps in China during 2014-2018. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:15429. [PMID: 36497504 PMCID: PMC9735526 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192315429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2022] [Revised: 11/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: although mumps vaccines have been introduced in most countries around the world in recent years, mumps outbreaks have occurred in countries with high vaccination rates. At present, China remains the focus of the global fight against mumps. This study aims to observe the epidemic characteristics and spatial clustering patterns of mumps and to investigate the potential factors affecting the disease incidence, which could provide novel ideas and avenues for future research as well as the prevention and control of mumps. (2) Methods: we used ArcGIS software to visualize the spatial distribution and variation of mumps. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to detect the spatial dependence and clustering patterns of the incidence. We applied the Spatial Durbin Panel Model (SDPM) to explore the spatial associations of ecological environmental factors with mumps. (3) Results: overall, the incidence rate showed a significant upward trend from 2014 to 2018, with the highest number of cases in the 10-15-year age group and from May to June. Geographically, the high incidence clusters were concentrated in southern regions, including Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Guangxi. This study also found that mumps has a positive spatial spillover effect in the study area. The average temperature and GDP of the local and adjacent areas have a significant impact on mumps. The increase in PM2.5 contributes to the rise in the incidence of mumps in this region. (4) Conclusions: these results can offer some novel ideas for policymakers and researchers. Local meteorological conditions and economic levels can extend to surrounding areas to affect the occurrence of mumps, so regional cooperation becomes particularly important. We recommend investment of public health funds in areas with a high incidence of mumps and developing economies to reduce and control the incidence of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Wen
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Danling Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Yanning Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Dongjia Lu
- Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Haixia Su
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Mengying Tang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Xiaokun Song
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
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Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the province level in mainland China, 2011–2018. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0270061. [PMID: 35994464 PMCID: PMC9394824 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2022] [Accepted: 06/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Although three monovalent EV-A71 vaccines have been launched in mainland China since 2016, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) still causes a considerable disease burden in China. Vaccines’ use may change the epidemiological characters of HFMD. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan statistics analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of this disease at the provincial level in mainland China. The effects of meteorological factors, socio-economic factors, and health resources on HFMD incidence were analyzed using Geodetector. Interrupted time series (ITS) was used to analyze the impact of the EV-A71 vaccine on the incidence of HFMD. This study found that the median annual incidence of HFMD was 153.78 per 100,000 (ranging from 120.79 to 205.06) in mainland China from 2011 to 2018. Two peaks of infections were observed per year. Children 5 years and under were the main morbid population. The spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern in each year (P<0.001). The distribution of HFMD cases was clustered in time and space. The range of cluster time was between April and October. The most likely cluster appeared in the southern coastal provinces (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan) from 2011 to 2017 and in the eastern coastal provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) in 2018. The spatial heterogeneity of HFMD incidence could be attributed to meteorological factors, socioeconomic factors, and health resource. After introducing the EV-A71 vaccine, the instantaneous level of HFMD incidence decreased at the national level, and HFMD incidence trended downward in the southern coastal provinces and increased in the eastern coastal provinces. The prevention and control policies of HFMD should be adapted to local conditions in different provinces. It is necessary to advance the EV-A71 vaccination plan, expand the vaccine coverage and develop multivalent HFMD vaccines as soon as possible.
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Ning J, Chu Y, Liu X, Zhang D, Zhang J, Li W, Zhang H. Spatio-temporal characteristics and control strategies in the early period of COVID-19 spread: a case study of the mainland China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:48298-48311. [PMID: 33904137 PMCID: PMC8075720 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14092-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2021] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has caused huge impacts on human health and the economic operation of the world. Analyzing and summarizing the early propagation law can help reduce the losses caused by public health emergencies in the future. Early data on the spread of COVID-19 in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of mainland China except for Hubei, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan were selected in this study. Spatio-temporal analysis, inflection point analysis, and correlation analysis are used to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics in the early COVID-19 spread. The results suggested that (1) the total confirmed cases have risen in an "S"-shaped curve over time, and the daily new cases have first increased and finally decreased; (2) the spatial distributions of both total and daily new cases show a trend of more in the east and less in the west, with a "multi-center agglomeration distribution" around Hubei Province and some major cities; (3) the spatial agglomeration of total confirmed cases has been increasing over time, while that of the daily new cases shows much more obvious in the mid-stage; and (4) timely release of the first-level public health emergency response can accelerate the emergence of the epidemic inflection point. The above analysis results have a specific reference value for the government's policy-making and measures to face public health emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiachen Ning
- College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China
| | - Yuhan Chu
- College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China
| | - Xixi Liu
- College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China
| | - Daojun Zhang
- College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China.
| | - Jinting Zhang
- School of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China
| | - Wangjun Li
- The school of Environmental Science and Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou, 215009, China
| | - Hui Zhang
- College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China
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