Patients at high risk for a severe clinical course of COVID-19 - small-area data in support of vaccination and other population-based interventions in Germany

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of the updated COVID-19 mRNA Autumn 2023 vaccines in Germany

OBJECTIVES

To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines updated for Autumn 2023 in adults aged ≥60 years and high-risk persons aged 30-59 years in Germany over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024).

METHODS

A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated and adapted to the German market. Numbers of symptomatic infections, a number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an Autumn 2023 Moderna updated COVID-19 (mRNA-1273.815) vaccine was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the mRNA-1273.815 and the Autumn Pfizer-BioNTech updated COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 BNT162b2) vaccines, as well as societal return on investment for the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine relative to no vaccination, were also examined.

RESULTS

Compared to no autumn vaccination, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is predicted to prevent approximately 1,697,900 symptomatic infections, 85,400 hospitalizations, and 4,100 deaths. Compared to an XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 campaign, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is also predicted to prevent approximately 90,100 symptomatic infections, 3,500 hospitalizations, and 160 deaths. Across both analyses we found the mRNA-1273.815 campaign to be dominant.

CONCLUSIONS

The mRNA-1273.815 vaccine can be considered cost-effective relative to the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccine and highly likely to provide more benefits and save costs compared to no vaccine in Germany, and to offer high societal return on investment.

COVID-19 therapy and vaccination: a clinical narrative review

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is the most globally impacting health issue our world has faced over the last century. As of January 7, 2022, around 300 million cases have been reported worldwide, with over 5 million deaths. The SARS-CoV-2 infection causes a hyperactive host immune response leading to an excessive inflammatory reaction with the release of many cytokines - cytokine storm - commonly noticed in acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis and fulminant multiorgan failure. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the scientific medical community has worked on therapeutic procedures that interfere with the exaggerated immune response. Thromboembolic complications are widespread in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19. Anticoagulant therapy was initially considered a cornerstone in hospitalized patients and even in the early post-discharge period; however, later trials have aborted the clinical benefits except for suspicion of or confirmed thrombosis. Immunomodulatory therapies are still crucial in moderate to severe COVID-19. Immunomodulator therapies include various medications from steroids to hydroxychloroquine, tocilizumab and Anakinra. Anti-inflammatory agents, vitamin supplements and antimicrobial therapy had initial encouraging evidence, but there are limited data to review. Convalescent plasma, immunoglobulins, eculizumab, neutralizing IgG1 monoclonal antibodies and remdesivir have positively impacted inpatient mortality and hospital length of stay. Eventually, wide population vaccination was proven to be the best tool to overcome the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and help humanity return to regular life. Many vaccines and various strategies have been used since December 2020. This review discusses how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has progressed and surged, and summarizes the safety and efficacy of the most used therapies and vaccines in the light of recent evidence.