The risk factors of heart failure in elderly patients with hip fracture: what should we care

Random forest predictive modeling of prolonged hospital length of stay in elderly hip fracture patients

Background

In elderly individuals suffering from hip fractures, a prolonged hospital length of stay (PLOS) not only heightens the probability of patient complications but also amplifies mortality risks. Yet, most elderly hip fracture patients present compromised baseline health conditions. Additionally, PLOS leads to increased expenses for patient treatment and care, while also diminishing hospital turnover rates. This, in turn, jeopardizes the prompt allocation of beds for urgent cases.

Methods

A retrospective study was carried out from October 2021 to November 2023 on 360 elderly hip fracture patients who underwent surgical treatment at West China Hospital. The 75th percentile of the total patient cohort's hospital stay duration, which was 12 days, was used to define prolonged hospital length of stay (PLOS). The cohort was divided into training and testing datasets with a 70:30 split. A predictive model was developed using the random forest algorithm, and its performance was validated and compared with the Lasso regression model.

Results

Out of 360 patients, 103 (28.61%) experienced PLOS. A Random Forest classification model was developed using the training dataset, identifying 10 essential variables. The Random Forest model achieved perfect performance in the training set, with an area under the curve (AUC), balanced accuracy, Kappa value, and F1 score of 1.000. In the testing set, the model's performance was assessed with an AUC of 0.846, balanced accuracy of 0.7294, Kappa value of 0.4325, and F1 score of 0.6061.

Conclusion

This study aims to develop a prognostic model for predicting delayed discharge in elderly patients with hip fractures, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting PLOS in this population. By utilizing machine learning models, clinicians can optimize the allocation of medical resources and devise effective rehabilitation strategies for geriatric hip fracture patients. Additionally, this method can potentially improve hospital bed turnover rates, providing latent benefits for the healthcare system.

Characteristics of Postoperative Heart Failure in Older Hip Fractures Patients Combined with Coronary Heart Disease and Construction of a Prediction Model of Nomogram, a Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction

Older patients combined with coronary heart disease (CHD) develop acute heart failure (AHF) after hip fracture surgery is common, and this study aimed to investigate the risk factors of postoperative AHF in older hip fracture patients and to construct a nomogram prediction model.

Methods

We retrospectively collected older hip fracture patients with CHD who underwent hip fracture surgery at the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2017 to December 2021. We divided them into a training set and a validation set. We collected the demographic data, laboratory indicators and imaging examination results. We identified risk factors for postoperative AHF and used R language software to establish a nomogram prediction model, plot ROC curves, calibration curves and DCA decision curves.

Results

We retrospectively collected 1288 older hip fractures patients with CHD. After excluding 214 patients who did not meet the criteria, 1074 patients were included in our research and we divided them into the training set and the validation set. In the training set, a total of 346 (42.8%) patients developing postoperative AHF. Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, we identified the risk factors for postoperative AHF and constructed a nomogram prediction model. The AUC of the prediction model is 0.778. The correction curve shows that the model has good consistency. The decision curve analysis shows that the model has good clinical practicality.

Conclusion

There were 42.8% older patients combined with CHD develop postoperative AHF. Among them, fracture type, age, anemia at admission, combined with COPD, ASA ≥ 3, and preoperative waiting time >3 days are risk factors for postoperative AHF. We constructed a nomogram prediction model that can effectively predict the risk of postoperative AHF in older hip fracture patients combined with CHD.

Risk Factors of Postoperative Acute Heart Failure in Elderly Patients After Hip Fracture Surgery

Background Postoperative acute heart failure (AHF) in elderly patients after hip fracture surgery is a common complication. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factor of AHF after hip fracture surgery among the older population. Methods This retrospective cohort study was performed on 88 admitted patients whose hip fractures were fixed via internal fixation surgery in a tertiary care hospital in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, from January 2022 to March 2023. Recruitment of patients was made through established inclusion and exclusion criteria. Ethical approval and informed consent were also gained before the data collection. A self-designed form was used to collect data. Data analysis was carried out in the IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 25 (Released 2017; IBM Corp., Armonk, New York, United States). Both descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to compare the attributes of the patients with AHF and patients without AHF. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between the postoperative AHF and its potential risk factors. Results Out of 88 enrolled patients, 12 (13.64%) had developed postoperative AHF. Age ≥ 65 years (OR = 2.606, 95% CI = 1.035~4.160, p = 0.010), anemia (OR = 3.178, 95% CI = 1.847~5.990, p = 0.029), hypertension (OR = 2.019, 95% CI = 1.110~4.034, p = 0.012), diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.003, 95% CI = 1.115~4.012, p = 0.015), hypoalbuminemia (OR = 2.486, 95% CI = 1.218~4.619, p = 0.030), and operation time ≥ 120 minutes (OR = 1.702, 95% CI = 1.099~2.880, p = 0.018), were the risk factors of postoperative AHF in elderly patients after hip fracture surgery. Conclusions In the study population, the incidence of postoperative heart failure was significant and age ≥ 65 years, anemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypoalbuminemia, and operation time ≥ 120 were significantly involved in the development of it. Preoperative identification and management of AHF risk factors could lead to the prevention of postoperative complications.

Risk factors and prognosis of perioperative acute heart failure in elderly patients with hip fracture: case-control studies and cohort study

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients with hip fracture who develop perioperative acute heart failure (AHF) have a poor prognosis. The aim of the present study is to investigate the potential risks of AHF in elderly hip-fracture patients in the postoperative period and to evaluate the prognostic significance of AHF.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on hip fracture patients at the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University, who were continuously in hospital from September 2018 to August 2020. To identify independent risk factors for AHF in elderly patients with hip fracture, univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was employed. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve illustrated the relationship between all-cause mortality in the AHF and non-AHF groups. An assessment of the correlation between baseline factors and all-cause mortality was conducted by means of univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis.

RESULTS

We eventually recruited 492 patients,318 of whom were in the AHF group. Statistical significance was found between the two groups for age group, concomitant coronary heart disease, COPD, haemoglobin level below 100 g/L on admission, albumin level below 40 g/L on admission, and increased intraoperative blood loss. Age over 75, concomitant coronary artery disease, hemoglobin level below 100 g/L and albumin level below 40 g/L on admission were independent risk factors for AHF in older hip fracture patients. The AHF group exhibited a higher incidence of perioperative complications, such as anemia, cardiovascular issues, and stress hyperglycemia, as well as all-cause mortality. Based on our COX regression analysis, we have identified that the main risk factors for all-cause mortality in AHF patients are concomitant coronary heart disease, absence of pulmonary infection, absence of diabetes, absence of cancer, and absence of urinary tract infection.

CONCLUSION

Enhancing hip fracture prevention for AHF is particularly important. It is crucial to make informed decisions to avoid poor prognoses. Patients whose age over 75 years old, concomitant coronary heart disease, hemoglobin < 100 g/L and album< 40 g/L on admission are more likely to develop perioperative AHF. To avert complications and potential fatalities, patients with AHF must receive appropriate care during the perioperative period.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram to predict postoperative anemia after total hip arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

Anemia is a common complication of total hip arthroplasty (THA). In this study, we evaluated the preoperative risk factors for postoperative anemia after THA and developed a nomogram model based on related preoperative and intraoperative factors.

METHODS

From January 2020 to May 2023, 927 THA patients at the same medical center were randomly assigned to either the training or validation cohort. The correlation between preoperative and intraoperative risk factors and postoperative anemia after THA was evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was developed using these predictive variables. The effectiveness and validation for the clinical application of this nomogram were evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, 7 independent predictive factors were identified in the training cohort: Lower body mass index (BMI), extended operation time, greater intraoperative bleeding, lower preoperative hemoglobin level, abnormally high preoperative serum amyloid A (SAA) level, history of cerebrovascular disease, and history of osteoporosis. The C-index of the model was 0.871, while the AUC indices for the training and validation cohorts were 84.4% and 87.1%, respectively. In addition, the calibration curves of both cohorts showed excellent consistency between the observed and predicted probabilities. The DCA curves of the training and validation cohorts were high, indicating the high clinical applicability of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower BMI, extended operation time, increased intraoperative bleeding, reduced preoperative hemoglobin level, elevated preoperative SAA level, history of cerebrovascular disease, and history of osteoporosis were seven independent preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative anemia after THA. The nomogram developed could aid in predicting postoperative anemia, facilitating advanced preparation, and enhancing blood management. Furthermore, the nomogram could assist clinicians in identifying patients most at risk for postoperative anemia.

Shape phenotype of thigh fat and muscle and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events after fragility hip fracture

BACKGROUND

Although sarcopenia has been recognized as a predictor of mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture, the association of thigh fat and muscle with cardiovascular (CV) outcome remains unclear. We examined the impact of computed tomography (CT)-derived shape features of thigh fat and muscle on major adverse CV events (MACE) in elderly patients with hip fracture.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients aged ≥65 years who presented with hip fracture confirmed on pelvic bone CT scan and underwent hip fracture surgery at our institution from April 2019 to December 2021. The cross-sectional area (CSA) and compactness (CM) of both the muscle and fat at the upper-thigh level were calculated from two-dimensional CT images using AVIEW Research (v1.1.38, Coreline Soft, Co. Ltd, Seoul, South Korea). The shape features of thigh fat and muscle were categorized into four groups based on the combination of CSA and CM: fat CSA (fat area [FA])/fat CM (FCM), muscle CSA (muscle area [MA])/muscle CM (MCM), FA/MCM and MA/FCM. In each of them, subjects were categorized into four subgroups: high CSA/high CM, high CSA/low CM, low CSA/high CM and low CSA/low CM. The primary outcome was MACE after 30 days of surgery, defined as a composite of all-cause death, acute myocardial infarction, stroke or hospitalization for heart failure.

RESULTS

Of 356 patients enrolled (median age, 82 years; 76.7% females), 72 (20.2%) had MACE over a median follow-up of 13.1 months (ranges 5.9-21.0 months). Patients with MACE had a significantly lower median FA (193.7 vs. 226.2 cm2 , P < 0.0001) and FCM (0.443 vs. 0.513, P = 0.001) compared with those without MACE, but no significant differences were found in MA, MCM and FA-MA ratio between the two groups. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, low FA (<240.1 cm2 ) (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-6.44, P = 0.005) and low FCM (<0.477) (adjusted HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.10-3.63, P = 0.023) were associated with an increased risk of MACE. Among the shape phenotypes of thigh fat and muscle, the thigh fat phenotype of low FA/low FCM (adjusted HR 3.13, 95% CI 1.81-5.42, P < 0.0001 [reference, high FA/high FCM]) was found to be an independent predictor of MACE.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly patients with fragility hip fracture, thigh CT-derived measures of FA and FCM may provide useful prognostic information for predicting adverse CV outcomes.

Increasing serum miR-409-3p predicts the major adverse cardiac adverse events in elderly patients after hip fracture surgery

BACKGROUND

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are critical complications responsible for the morbidity and mortality of elderly hip fracture patients. There was an urgent need to explore an effect biomarker for predicting MACE in elderly patients receiving hip fracture surgery.

OBJECTIVE

This study focused on an age-related miRNA, miR-409-3p, and assessed its significance in elderly hip fracture patients.

METHODS

A total of 267 hip fracture patients were enrolled in this study including 104 elderly patients (age ≥ 60 years). All patients were followed up for 1 year to monitor the occurrence of MACE. The risk factors for the occurrence of MACE were evaluated by the logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Elderly age and reduced cardiac and renal function were identified as risk factors for MACE in hip fracture patients. Elderly patients also showed a high incidence of MACE. In elderly hip fracture patients, significant upregulation of miR-409-3p was observed, which was associated with patients' elderly age, higher level of revised cardiac risk index (RCRI), lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and higher levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB), and high sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI). Additionally, miR-409-3p was identified as an independent factor for the MACE in elderly patients received hip fracture surgery.

CONCLUSION

Upregulated miR-409-3p was an age-related miRNA and could predict the occurrence of MACE in elderly hip fracture patients.

Risk factors for short-term mortality in elderly hip fracture patients with complicated heart failure in the ICU: A MIMIC-IV database analysis using nomogram

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture is a prevalent and hazardous injury among the elderly population that often results in intensive care unit (ICU) admission due to various complications, despite advanced medical science. One common complication experienced in the ICU by elderly hip fracture patients is heart failure, which significantly impacts short-term survival rates. Currently, there is a deficit of adequate predictive models to forecast the short-term risk of death following heart failure for elderly hip fracture patients in the ICU. This study aims to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality within 30 days for elderly patients with hip fractures and heart failure while in the ICU in order to develop a predictive model.

METHOD

A total of 641 elderly patients with hip fractures combined with heart failure were recruited from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV dataset and randomized to the training and validation sets. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 30 days. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to reduce data dimensionality and select features. Multivariate logistic regression was used to build predictive models. Consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to measure the predictive performance of the nomogram.

RESULT

Our results showed that these variables including MCH, MCV, INR, monocyte percentage, neutrophils percentage, creatinine, and combined sepsis were independent factors for death within 30 days in elderly patients with hip fracture combined with heart failure in the ICU. The C-index was 0.869 (95% CI 0.823-0.916) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.749-0.900) for the training and validation sets, respectively. The results of the area under the curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed that the nomogram performed well in predicting elderly patients with hip fractures combined with heart failure in the ICU.

CONCLUSION

We developed a new nomogram model for predicting 30-day all-cause mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures combined with heart failure in the ICU, which could be a valid and useful clinical tool for clinicians for targeted treatment and prognosis prediction.

Ninety-day mortality of extremely elderly patients undergoing hip fracture surgery and its association with preoperative cardiac function: a single-center retrospective study

PURPOSE

We investigated the 90-day mortality rate in elderly patients who underwent hip fracture surgery and the association of preoperative cardiac function with mortality.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 133 consecutive patients aged 80 years or older who underwent hip fracture surgery. We obtained information for patient sex, age, comorbidities, medications, anesthesia method, left ventricular systolic and diastolic functions assessed by echocardiography, and preoperative brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed.

RESULTS

The 90-day mortality rate in patients with a mean age of 88.9 years was 7.5% (10/133). More than half of the patients had diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle. There were no significant differences in preoperative cardiac systolic and diastolic functions between the mortality group and non-mortality group. The preoperative BNP level in the mortality group was significantly higher than that in the non-mortality group (p = 0.038). Preoperative BNP level was not an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality (p = 0.081) in the primary multivariate logistic regression analysis but was an independent risk factor (p = 0.039) with an odds ratio of 1.004 (95% CI 1.000-1.008) in the sensitivity analysis with different explanatory variables.

CONCLUSION

The 90-day mortality rate in patients over 80 years old after hip fracture surgery was 7.5%. There were no significant differences in preoperative cardiac function assessed by echocardiography between the mortality and non-mortality groups. Our results suggest that there is no association or only a weak association of high BNP level with 90-day mortality in this age population.

Effect of different analgesic treatments on the pulmonary function in elderly hip fracture patients: A prospective study

BACKGROUND

To investigate the effect of different analgesic methods on lungs in elderly patients with hip fractures.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted on 78 elderly hip fracture patients undergoing spinal anesthesia for surgery, where 3 analgesic methods were used: postoperative Patient-controlled intravenous analgesia pump (PCIA) (group I), pre and postoperative PCIA (group II), and preoperative fascia iliaca compartment block (FICB) + postoperative PCIA (group III). The following indicators were monitored at admission (T1), on the day of surgery before anesthesia (T2), and 7 days after surgery (T3): heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), forced expiratory volume during the first second, arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) and carbon dioxide (PaCO2), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin 6 (IL-6). Pulmonary complications such as pulmonary atelectasis and respiratory insufficiency were analyzed.

RESULTS

The HR, RR, forced expiratory volume during the first second, PaO2, PaCO2, IL-6, and CRP levels at T1 after fracture did not significantly differ among the 3 groups (P > .05). After different analgesic treatments post-admission, all indicators at T2 were significantly higher in group I than in groups II and III (P < .05), while there was no significant difference between groups II and III (P > .05). At T3, there were no significant differences in RR, HR, PaO2, PaCO2, and CRP levels among the groups (P > .05), but IL-6 levels at T3 were significantly higher in group I than in groups II and III (P < .05).

CONCLUSION

The use of effective pain relief during surgery can help protect the lung function of elderly patients with hip fractures. When using PCIA with FICB before surgery, respiratory performance may be better protected compared to using unsustained analgesia. This could be due to a decrease in the levels of inflammatory markers such as CRP and interleukin-6.

Analysis of Cardiac Events and the Subsequent Impact for Geriatric Patients Undergoing Hip Fracture Surgeries

Perioperative complications, particularly cardiac events, compromised surgical outcomes for geriatric patients. This retrospective study intended to investigate the occurrence and subsequent impact of cardiac events for geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgeries. We collected 607 patients undergoing hip fracture surgeries from January 2017 to December 2022 that received transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) pre-operatively to screen for cardiac abnormalities. Except for demographic characteristics, the researchers recorded fracture type, surgical method, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, anesthesia type, perioperative cardiac events, and in-hospital mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 22.0 statistics software. Throughout the whole course of the study, 16 postoperative cardiac events occurred. The cardiac events included ten arrhythmias, three acute myocardial infarctions, two heart failures, and one sudden death. Notably, 12 of 16 patients with cardiac events presented with abnormal findings on TTE, except 15 of them had a history of cardiac disease. This study disclosed 93.7% of cardiac events developed in patients with a history of cardiovascular disease. Among patients that experienced cardiac events, 75% of patients had abnormal echocardiographic findings. Pre-operative transthoracic echocardiography deserves a recommendation for geriatric patients with histories of cardiac diseases undergoing hip fracture surgeries to detect the risk of developing cardiac events earlier.

Risk factors for perioperative acute heart failure in older hip fracture patients and establishment of a nomogram predictive model

AIM

This study aims to explore the risk factors for perioperative acute heart failure in older patients with hip fracture and establish a nomogram prediction model.

METHODS

The present study was a retrospective study. From January 2020 to December 2021, patients who underwent surgical treatment for hip fracture at the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University were included. Heart failure was confirmed by discharge diagnosis or medical records. The samples were randomly divided into modeling and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Relevant demographic and clinic data of patients were collected. IBM SPSS Statistics 26.0 performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, to obtain the risk factors of acute heart failure. The R software was used to construct the nomogram prediction model.

RESULTS

A total of 751 older patients with hip fracture were enrolled in this study, of which 138 patients (18.37%, 138/751) developed acute heart failure. Heart failure was confirmed by discharge diagnosis or medical records. Respiratory disease (odd ratio 7.68; 95% confidence interval 3.82-15.43; value of P 0.001), history of heart disease (chronic heart failure excluded) (odd ratio 2.21, 95% confidence interval 1.18-4.12; value of P 0.010), ASA ≥ 3 (odd ratio 14.46, 95% confidence interval 7.78-26.87; value of P 0.001), and preoperative waiting time ≤ 2 days (odd ratio 3.32, 95% confidence interval 1.33-8.30; value of P 0.010) were independent risk factors of perioperative acute heart failure in older patients with hip fracture. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction model based on these factors was calculated to be 0.877 (95% confidence interval 0.836-0.918). The sensitivity and specificity were 82.8% and 80.9%, respectively, and the fitting degree of the model was good. In the internal validation group, the AUC was 0.910, and the 95% confidence interval was 0.869-0.950.

CONCLUSIONS

Several risk factors are identified for acute heart failure in older patients, based on which pragmatic nomogram prediction model is developed, facilitating detection of patients at risk early.

Preoperative Anemia and Risk of In-hospital Postoperative Complications in Patients with Hip Fracture

Purpose

To evaluate the impact of preoperative anemia on postoperative complications after hip fracture surgery.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a retrospective study including hip fracture patients at a teaching hospital between 2005 and 2022. We defined preoperative anemia as the last hemoglobin measurement level before surgery < 130 g/L for men and < 120 g/L for women. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital major complications, including pneumonia, respiratory failure, gastrointestinal bleeding, urinary tract infection, incision infection, deep venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, angina pectoris, arrhythmia, myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and death. Secondary outcomes were cardiovascular events, infection, pneumonia, and death. We used multivariate negative binomial or logistic regression to evaluate the impact of anemia and its severity, categorized as mild (90-130 g/L for men, 90-120 g/L for women) or moderate-to-severe (< 90 g/L for both) anemia on outcomes.

Results

Of the 3540 included patients, 1960 had preoperative anemia. 188 anemic patients experienced 324 major complications, while 63 non-anemic patients had 94 major complications. The risk of major complications was 165.3 (95% CI, 149.5-182.4) and 59.5 (95% CI, 48.9-72.3) per 1000 persons in anemic and non-anemic patients, respectively. Anemic patients were more likely to have major complications than non-anemic patients (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR), 1.87; 95% CI, 1.30-2.72), which was consistent in mild (aIRR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.22-2.59) and moderate-to-severe (aIRR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.65-5.38) anemia. Preoperative anemia also increased the risk of cardiovascular events (aIRR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.29-3.01), infection (aIRR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.01-2.86), pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.91; 95% CI, 1.06-3.57), and death (aOR, 3.17; 95% CI, 1.06-11.89).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that even mild preoperative anemia is associated with major postoperative complications in hip fracture patients. This finding highlights considering preoperative anemia as a risk factor in surgical decision-making for high-risk patients.