Prognostic value of inflammatory markers for detecting anastomotic leakage after esophageal resection

Prediction of Anastomotic Leakage in Esophageal Cancer Surgery: A Multimodal Machine Learning Model Integrating Imaging and Clinical Data

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Surgery in combination with chemo/radiotherapy is the standard treatment for locally advanced esophageal cancer. Even after the introduction of minimally invasive techniques, esophagectomy carries significant morbidity and mortality. One of the most common and feared complications of esophagectomy is anastomotic leakage (AL). Our work aimed to develop a multimodal machine-learning model combining CT-derived and clinical data for predicting AL following esophagectomy for esophageal cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 471 patients were prospectively included (Jan 2010-Dec 2022). Preoperative computed tomography (CT) was used to evaluate celia trunk stenosis and vessel calcification. Clinical variables, including demographics, disease stage, operation details, postoperative CRP, and stage, were combined with CT data to build a model for AL prediction. Data was split into 80%:20% for training and testing, and an XGBoost model was developed with 10-fold cross-validation and early stopping. ROC curves and respective areas under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and F1-scores were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 117 patients (24.8%) exhibited post-operative AL. The XGboost model achieved an AUC of 79.2% (95%CI 69%-89.4%) with a specificity of 77.46%, a sensitivity of 65.22%, PPV of 48.39%, NPV of 87.3%, and F1-score of 56%. Shapley Additive exPlanation analysis showed the effect of individual variables on the result of the model. Decision curve analysis showed that the model was particularly beneficial for threshold probabilities between 15% and 48%.

CONCLUSION

A clinically relevant multimodal model can predict AL, which is especially valuable in cases with low clinical probability of AL.

A real-world study was conducted to develop a nomogram that predicts the occurrence of anastomotic leakage in patients with esophageal cancer following esophagectomy

BACKGROUND

The incidence of anastomotic leakage (AL) following esophagectomy is regarded as a noteworthy complication. There is a need for biomarkers to facilitate early diagnosis of AL in high-risk esophageal cancer (EC) patients, thereby minimizing its morbidity and mortality. We assessed the predictive abilities of inflammatory biomarkers for AL in patients after esophagectomy.

METHODS

In order to ascertain the predictive efficacy of biomarkers for AL, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated. Furthermore, univariate, LASSO, and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to discern the risk factors associated with AL. Based on these identified risk factors, a diagnostic nomogram model was formulated and subsequently assessed for its predictive performance.

RESULTS

Among the 438 patients diagnosed with EC, a total of 25 patients encountered AL. Notably, elevated levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-10, C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) were observed in the AL group as compared to the non-AL group, demonstrating statistical significance. Particularly, IL-6 exhibited the highest predictive capacity for early postoperative AL, exhibiting a sensitivity of 92.00% and specificity of 61.02% at a cut-off value of 132.13 pg/ml. Univariate, LASSO, and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that fasting blood glucose ≥7.0mmol/L and heightened levels of IL-10, IL-6, CRP, and PCT were associated with an augmented risk of AL. Consequently, a nomogram model was formulated based on the results of multivariate logistic analyses. The diagnostic nomogram model displayed a robust discriminatory ability in predicting AL, as indicated by a C-Index value of 0.940. Moreover, the decision curve analysis provided further evidence supporting the clinical utility of this diagnostic nomogram model.

CONCLUSIONS

This predictive instrument can serve as a valuable resource for clinicians, empowering them to make informed clinical judgments aimed at averting the onset of AL.

Early postoperative systemic inflammatory response as predictor of anastomotic leakage after esophagectomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Postesophagectomy anastomotic leakage occurs in up to 16% of patients and is the main cause of morbidity and mortality. The leak severity is determined by the extent of contamination and the degree of sepsis, both of which are related to the time from onset to treatment. Early prediction based on inflammatory biomarkers such as C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, white blood cell counts, albumin levels, and combined Noble-Underwood (NUn) scores can guide early management. This review aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy of these biomarkers.

METHODS

This study was designed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and registered in the PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews) database. Two reviewers independently conducted searches across PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Embase. Sources of bias were assessed, and a meta-analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Data from 5348 patients were analyzed, and 13% experienced leakage. The diagnostic accuracy of the serum biomarkers was analyzed, and pooled cutoff values were identified. CRP levels were found to have good diagnostic accuracy on days 2 to 5. The best discrimination was identified on day 2 for a cutoff value < 222 mg/L (area under the curve = 0.824, sensitivity = 81%, specificity = 88%, positive predictive value = 38.6%, and negative predictive value = 98%). A NUn score of >10 on day 4 correlated with poor diagnostic accuracy.

CONCLUSION

The NUn score failed to achieve adequate accuracy. CRP seems to be the only valuable biomarker and is a negative predictor of postesophagectomy leakage. Patients with a CRP concentration of <222 mg/L on day 2 are unlikely to develop a leak, and patients can safely proceed through their enhanced recovery after surgery protocol. Patients with a CRP concentration of <127 mg/L on day 5 can be safely discharged when clinically possible.

The value of C-reactive protein, leucocytes and vital signs in detecting major complications after oncological colorectal surgery

PURPOSE

To assess the association of postoperative C-reactive protein (CRP), leucocytes and vital signs in the first three postoperative days (PODs) with major complications after oncological colorectal resections in a tertiary referral centre for colorectal cancer in The Netherlands.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study, including 594 consecutive patients who underwent an oncological colorectal resection at Maastricht University Medical Centre between January 2016 and December 2020. Descriptive analyses of patient characteristics were performed. Logistic regression models were used to assess associations of leucocytes, CRP and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) at PODs 1-3 with major complications. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to establish cut-off values for CRP.

RESULTS

A total of 364 (61.3%) patients have recovered without any postoperative complications, 134 (22.6%) patients have encountered minor complications and 96 (16.2%) developed major complications. CRP levels reached their peak on POD 2, with a mean value of 155 mg/L. This peak was significantly higher in patients with more advanced stages of disease and patients undergoing open procedures, regardless of complications. A cut-off value of 170 mg/L was established for CRP on POD 2 and 152 mg/L on POD 3. Leucocytes and MEWS also demonstrated a peak on POD 2 for patients with major complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Statistically significant associations were found for CRP, Δ CRP, Δ leucocytes and MEWS with major complications on POD 2. Patients with CRP levels ≥ 170 mg/L on POD 2 should be carefully evaluated, as this may indicate an increased risk of developing major complications.

Systemic Inflammatory Response and the Noble and Underwood (NUn) Score as Early Predictors of Anastomotic Leakage after Esophageal Reconstructive Surgery

Anastomotic leakage (AL) remains the main cause of post-esophagectomy morbidity and mortality. Early detection can avoid sepsis and reduce morbidity and mortality. This study evaluates the diagnostic accuracy of the Nun score and its components as early detectors of AL. This single-center observational cohort study included all esophagectomies from 2010 to 2020. C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin (Alb), and white cell count (WCC) were analyzed and NUn scores were calculated. The area under the curve statistic (AUC) was used to assess their predictive accuracy. A total of 74 of the 668 patients (11%) developed an AL. CRP and the NUn-score proved to be good diagnostic accuracy tests on postoperative day (POD) 2 (CRP AUC: 0.859; NUn score AUC: 0.869) and POD 4 (CRP AUC: 0.924; NUn score AUC: 0.948). A 182 mg/L CRP cut-off on POD 4 yielded a 87% sensitivity, 88% specificity, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 47.7%. A NUn score cut-off > 10 resulted in 92% sensitivity, 95% specificity, 99% NPV, and 68% PPV. Albumin and WCC have limited value in the detection of post-esophagectomy AL. Elevated CRP and a high NUn score on POD 4 provide high accuracy in predicting AL after esophageal cancer surgery. Their high negative predictive value allows to select patients who can safely proceed with enhanced recovery protocols.

CRP as an early indicator for anastomotic leakage after esophagectomy for cancer: a single tertiary gastro-esophageal center study

PURPOSE

To determine the relationship between postoperative C-reactive protein (CRP) as an early indicator of anastomotic leakage (AL) after esophagectomy for esophageal cancer.

METHODS

We reviewed patients diagnosed with esophageal or esophagogastric junctional cancer who underwent esophagectomy between 2006 and 2022 at the Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden. Multivariable logistic regression models estimated relative risk for AL by calculating the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The cut-off values for CRP were based on the maximum Youden's index using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 612 patients were included, with 464 (75.8%) in the non-AL (N-AL) group and 148 (24.2%) in the AL group. Preoperative body mass index and the proportion of patients with the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification 3 were significantly higher in the AL group than in the N-AL group. The median day of AL occurrence was the postoperative day (POD) 8. Trends in CRP levels from POD 2 to 3 and POD 3 to 4 were significantly higher in the AL than in the N-AL group. An increase in CRP of ≥ 4.65% on POD 2 to 3 was an independent risk factor for AL with the highest OR of 3.67 (95% CI 1.66-8.38, p = 0.001) in patients with CRP levels on POD 2 above 211 mg/L.

CONCLUSION

Early changes in postoperative CRP levels may help to detect AL early following esophageal cancer surgery.

A risk scoring system for early diagnosis of anastomotic leakage after subtotal esophagectomy for esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

Anastomotic leakage (AL) is one of the most critical postoperative complications after subtotal esophagectomy in patients with esophageal cancer. This study attempted to develop an optimal scoring system for stratifying the risk for AL.

METHODS

The study included 171 patients who underwent subtotal esophagectomy for esophageal cancer followed by esophagogastrostomy in the cervical region from January 2011 to April 2021 at Nagoya University Hospital. AL was defined by radiologic or endoscopic evidence of anastomotic breakdown using some modalities. A risk scoring system for an early diagnosis of AL was established using factors determined in the multivariate analysis. A score was calculated for each patient, and the patients were classified into three categories according to the risk for AL: low-, intermediate- and high-risk. The trend of the risk for AL among the categories was evaluated.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine patients (17%) developed AL. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that sinistrous gross features of drain fluid (P < 0.001; odds ratio (OR), 10.2), radiologic air bubble sign (P < 0.001; OR, 15.0) and the level of drain amylase ≥280 U/L on postoperative Day 7 (P < 0.001; OR, 9.0) were significantly associated with AL. According to the matching number of the above three risk factors and categorization into three risk groups, the incidence of AL was 6.1% (8/131) in the low-risk group, 45.5% (15/33) in the intermediate-risk group and 85.7% (6/7) in the high-risk group (area under curve, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

The present AL-risk scoring system may be useful in postoperative patient care after subtotal esophagectomy.

C‐reactive protein as an early predictor of anastomotic dehiscence in various types of reconstruction in elective abdominal surgery

Objective

The most important factor in abdominal surgery is the successful healing of the intestinal anastomosis performed. This study aims to evaluate the role of C‐reactive protein (CRP) in predicting anastomotic dehiscence in the first week following surgery.

Methods

The study included 100 patients surgically treated over a period of 1 year. Postoperative (p/o) values of CRP, leukocyte (white blood cells [WBCs]) and body temperature (BT) were measured in relation to the development of p/o complications.

Results

CRP p/o values were significantly higher in patients with complications and proved helpful in predicting p/o complications, while WBC and BT were not. For the development of anastomotic leakage, receiver operating characteristic curve shows the earliest diagnostic accuracy on the third p/o day with the cut‐off value of 115.1 mg/L; however, the largest area under the curve was on the fifth p/o day with a cut‐off value of 59.2 mg/L, a sensitivity of 89%, a specificity of 61%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 21.9 and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100.

Conclusions

Measurement of p/o CRP values may indicate problematic healing of digestive tract anastomosis before the appearance of clinical signs. High sensitivity and high NPV allow us to rule out p/o complications and anastomotic dehiscence with great certainty and safely discharge these patients from the hospital.

C-Reactive Protein as Predictor for Infectious Complications after Robotic and Open Esophagectomies

Introduction: The value of C-reactive protein (CRP) as a predictor of anastomotic leakage (AL) after esophagectomy has been addressed by numerous studies. Despite its increasing application, robotic esophagectomy (RAMIE) has not been considered separately yet in this context. We, therefore, aimed to evaluate the predictive value of CRP in RAMIE. Material and Methods: Patients undergoing RAMIE or completely open esophagectomy (OE) at our University Center were included. Clinical data, CRP- and Procalcitonin (PCT)-values were retrieved from a prospectively maintained database and evaluated for their predictive value for subsequent postoperative infectious complications (PIC) (AL, gastric conduit leakage or necrosis, pneumonia, empyema). Results: Three hundred and five patients (RAMIE: 160, OE: 145) were analyzed. PIC were noted in 91 patients on postoperative day (POD) 10 and 123 patients on POD 30, respectively. Median POD of diagnosis of PIC was POD 8. Post-operative CRP-values in the robotic-group peaked one and two days later, respectively, and converged from POD 5 onward compared to the open-group. In the group with PIC, CRP-levels in the robotic-group were initially lower and started to differ significantly from POD 3 onward. In the open-group, increases were already noticed from POD 3 on. Procalcitonin levels did not differ. Best Receiver operating curve (ROC)-results were on POD 4, highest negative predictive values at POD 5 (RAMIE) and POD 4 (OE) with cut-off values of 70 mg/L and 88.3 mg/L, respectively. Conclusion: Post-operative CRP is a good negative predictor for PIC, after both RAMIE and OE. After RAMIE, CRP peaks later with a lower cut-off value.

Severity of oEsophageal Anastomotic Leak in patients after oesophagectomy: the SEAL score

Background

Anastomotic leak (AL) is a common but severe complication after oesophagectomy. It is unknown how to determine the severity of AL objectively at diagnosis. Determining leak severity may guide treatment decisions and improve future research. This study aimed to identify leak-related prognostic factors for mortality, and to develop a Severity of oEsophageal Anastomotic Leak (SEAL) score.

Methods

This international, retrospective cohort study in 71 centres worldwide included patients with AL after oesophagectomy between 2011 and 2019. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Leak-related prognostic factors were identified after adjusting for confounders and were included in multivariable logistic regression to develop the SEAL score. Four classes of leak severity (mild, moderate, severe, and critical) were defined based on the risk of 90-day mortality, and the score was validated internally.

Results

Some 1509 patients with AL were included and the 90-day mortality rate was 11.7 per cent. Twelve leak-related prognostic factors were included in the SEAL score. The score showed good calibration and discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95 per cent c.i. 0.73 to 0.81). Higher classes of leak severity graded by the SEAL score were associated with a significant increase in duration of ICU stay, healing time, Comprehensive Complication Index score, and Esophagectomy Complications Consensus Group classification.

Conclusion

The SEAL score grades leak severity into four classes by combining 12 leak-related predictors and can be used to the assess severity of AL after oesophagectomy.

Severity of oEsophageal Anastomotic Leak in patients after oesophagectomy: the SEAL score

BACKGROUND

Anastomotic leak (AL) is a common but severe complication after oesophagectomy. It is unknown how to determine the severity of AL objectively at diagnosis. Determining leak severity may guide treatment decisions and improve future research. This study aimed to identify leak-related prognostic factors for mortality, and to develop a Severity of oEsophageal Anastomotic Leak (SEAL) score.

METHODS

This international, retrospective cohort study in 71 centres worldwide included patients with AL after oesophagectomy between 2011 and 2019. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Leak-related prognostic factors were identified after adjusting for confounders and were included in multivariable logistic regression to develop the SEAL score. Four classes of leak severity (mild, moderate, severe, and critical) were defined based on the risk of 90-day mortality, and the score was validated internally.

RESULTS

Some 1509 patients with AL were included and the 90-day mortality rate was 11.7 per cent. Twelve leak-related prognostic factors were included in the SEAL score. The score showed good calibration and discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95 per cent c.i. 0.73 to 0.81). Higher classes of leak severity graded by the SEAL score were associated with a significant increase in duration of ICU stay, healing time, Comprehensive Complication Index score, and Esophagectomy Complications Consensus Group classification.

CONCLUSION

The SEAL score grades leak severity into four classes by combining 12 leak-related predictors and can be used to the assess severity of AL after oesophagectomy.

Evaluation of the Use of Inflammatory Biomarkers in the Early Detection of Anastomotic Leakage after Oesophagectomy

Background

Postoperative anastomotic leakage remains a major complication of esophagectomy. The development of a reliable method of early detection of anastomotic leakage can revolutionize the management of esophageal carcinoma.

Materials and Methods

This is a retrospective data analysis of 147 patients who underwent Ivor–Lewis esophagectomy as a curative attempt to treat distal esophageal carcinoma in our surgery department between 2010 and 2021. C-reactive protein and white blood cell count in postoperative days 1, 3, 5, and 8 were compared in patients with and without anastomotic leakage. The diagnostic accuracy of these tests was challenged against the clinical reference standard represented by computed tomography or upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.

Results

Twenty-eight patients (19%) developed anastomotic leakage. C-reactive protein values in postoperative day 8 were the only parameter to qualify as a potential clinically helpful test with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.85 and a P value of less than .01. We calculated the cutoff value for C-reactive protein during postoperative day 8 to be 10.85 mg/dL with specificity and sensitivity of 73.1% and 89.3%, respectively. C-reactive protein showed a positive predictive value of 43.9% and a negative predictive value of 96.7% at this cutoff value.

Conclusion

An absolute diagnostic value of postoperative estimation of serum inflammatory biomarkers to detect anastomotic leakage could not be proved. Serum C-reactive protein on postoperative day 8 with a cutoff value of 10.85 mg/dL could be used to exclude anastomotic leakage after esophagectomy to serve as one of the discharge criteria of the patients.

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Anastomotic leakage is a serious and quite common complication after esophagectomy.

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Early detection of anastomotic leakage is crucial to successful management.

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Increased inflammatory biomarkers suggest the presence of anastomotic leakage.

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Increased serum C-reactive protein is a potential detector of anastomotic leakage.

Role of the triad of procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, and white blood cell count in the prediction of anastomotic leak following colorectal resections

Purpose

The enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program expedites patient recovery after major surgery. This study aimed to investigate the role of the triad of procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and white blood cells (WBC) trajectories as a predictive biomarker for the anastomotic leak (AL) after colorectal surgery.

Method

Patients who had colorectal anastomosis were prospectively included. Postoperative clinical and laboratory parameters and outcomes were collected and analyzed. The 5-day trajectories of PCT, CRP, and WBC were evaluated. Based on the trajectory of the three biomarkers, we compared patients with and without AL as detected during the first 30 days after surgery using the area under receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) for logistic estimation.

Results

This study included 205 patients, of whom 56% were men and 43.9% were women with a mean age of 56.4 ± 13.1 years. Twenty-two patients (10.7%) had AL; 77.3% underwent surgery, and 22.7% were treated with drainage and antibiotics. Procalcitonin was the best predictor for AL compared to CRP and WBC at three days postoperatively (AUC: 0.84, 0.76, 0.66, respectively). On day 5, a cutoff value of 4.93 ng/mL for PCT had the highest sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value. The predictive power of PCT was substantially improved when combined with either CRP or WBC, or both (AUC: 0.92, 0.92, 0.93, respectively).

Conclusion

The 5-day trajectories of combined CRP, PCT, and WBC had a better predictive power for AL than the isolated daily measurements. Combining the three parameters may be a reliable predictor of early patient discharge, which would be highly beneficial to ERAS programs.

Pre-emptive active drainage of reflux (PARD) in Ivor-Lewis oesophagectomy with negative pressure and simultaneous enteral nutrition using a double-lumen open-pore film drain (dOFD)

BACKGROUND

Postoperative reflux can compromise anastomotic healing after Ivor-Lewis oesophagectomy (ILE). We report on Pre-emptive Active Reflux Drainage (PARD) using a new double-lumen open-pore film drain (dOFD) with negative pressure to protect the anastomosis.

METHODS

To prepare a dOFD, the gastric channel of a triluminal tube (Freka®Trelumina, Fresenius) is coated with a double-layered open-pore film (Suprasorb®CNP drainage film, Lohmann & Rauscher) over 25 cm. The ventilation channel is blocked. The filmcoated segment is placed in the stomach and the intestinal feeding tube in the duodenum. Negative pressure is applied with an electronic vacuum pump (- 125 mmHg, continuous suction) to the gastric channel. Depending on the findings in the endoscopic control, PARD will either be continued or terminated.

RESULTS

PARD was used in 24 patients with ILE and started intraoperatively. Healing was observed in all the anastomoses. The median duration of PARD was 8 days (range 4-21). In 10 of 24 patients (40%) there were issues with anastomotic healing which we defined as "at-risk anastomosis". No additional endoscopic procedures or surgical revisions to the anastomoses were required.

CONCLUSIONS

PARD with dOFD contributes to the protection of anastomosis after ILE. Negative pressure applied to the dOFD (a nasogastric tube) enables enteral nutrition to be delivered simultaneously with permanent evacuation and decompression.

Single Snapshot Imaging of Optical Properties (SSOP) for Perfusion Assessment during Gastric Conduit Creation for Esophagectomy: An Experimental Study on Pigs

Simple Summary

Anastomotic leak is the most dangerous complication occurring after esophagectomy and its relationship with inadequate visceral perfusion is widely recognized. Currently, the adequate perfusion of the gastric conduit is intraoperatively assessed by surgeons using subjective indicators (e.g., serosal color or pulsatile flow of vessels). During the last decades, several innovative optical techniques based on the interaction of light with tissue have been developed to monitor perfusion in esophagogastric surgery. However, these innovative approaches are characterized by a lack of video rate and reproducibility. They also provide operator-dependent results and lengthen the surgical workflow. Single Snapshot imaging of Optical Properties (SSOP) is an optical technique, which can overcome such limitations, providing quantitative information on the optical properties of biological tissues over a large field of view. It is the first study to demonstrate the accuracy of SSOP in the quantification of serosal StO₂% in a porcine gastric conduit model.

Abstract

Anastomotic leakage (AL) is a serious complication occurring after esophagectomy. The current knowledge suggests that inadequate intraoperative perfusion in the anastomotic site contributes to an increase in the AL rate. Presently, clinical estimation undertaken by surgeons is not accurate and new technology is necessary to improve the intraoperative assessment of tissue oxygenation. In the present study, we demonstrate the application of a novel optical technology, namely Single Snapshot imaging of Optical Properties (SSOP), used to quantify StO₂% in an open surgery experimental gastric conduit (GC) model. After the creation of a gastric conduit, local StO₂% was measured with a preclinical SSOP system for 60 min in the antrum (ROI-A), corpus (ROI-C), and fundus (ROI-F). The removed region (ROI-R) acted as ischemic control. ROI-R had statistically significant lower StO₂% when compared to all other ROIs at T15, T30, T45, and T60 (p < 0.0001). Local capillary lactates (LCLs) and StO₂% correlation was statistically significant (R = −0.8439, 95% CI −0.9367 to −0.6407, p < 0.0001). Finally, SSOP could discriminate resected from perfused regions and ROI-A from ROI-F (the future anastomotic site). In conclusion, SSOP could well be a suitable technology to assess intraoperative perfusion of GC, providing consistent StO₂% quantification and ROIs discrimination.

C-Reactive Protein and C-Reactive Protein-Based Scores to Predict Survival in Esophageal and Junctional Adenocarcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has a poor prognosis; predictive markers of prognosis would facilitate advances in personalized therapy. C-reactive protein (CRP) and CRP-based scores are increasingly recommended across oncology; however, their role and value in EAC is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined CRP cut-point and scores and how they may best be applied in predicting survival in EAC.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in EMBASE, Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane, Scopus and CINAHL databases, from inception to 1st October 2020. Studies reporting data from adults with EAC including adenocarcinoma of the gastro-esophageal junction (AEG), pre-treatment CRP or CRP-based score and Hazard Ratio (HR) for survival were included. QUIPS tool assessed risk of bias. Meta-analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS

A total of 819 records were screened. Eight papers were included, with data for 1475 people. CRP cut-points ranged from 2.8 to 10 mg/L. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and modified GPS were the most commonly reported scores. On meta-analysis, elevated preoperative GPS/mGPS was significantly associated with worse overall survival (hazards ratio [HR] 1.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-2.62, p = 0.002); results were similar in subgroup analyses of multimodal treatment, M0 disease, and R0 resection.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first review to evaluate comprehensively the evidence for CRP and CRP-based scores in EAC. Meta-analysis demonstrated that elevated preoperative GPS or mGPS was significantly associated with reduced overall survival in EAC, including AEG. There is insufficient evidence to support use of CRP alone. Future studies should examine GPS/mGPS in EAC prospectively, alone and combined with other prognostic markers.