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El-Warrak L, Nunes M, Luna G, Barbosa CE, Lyra A, Argôlo M, Lima Y, Salazar H, de Souza JM. Towards the Future of Public Health: Roadmapping Trends and Scenarios in the Post-COVID Healthcare Era. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:3118. [PMID: 38132008 PMCID: PMC10743190 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11243118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2023] [Revised: 11/13/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic, a transformative event in modern society, has disrupted routine, work, behavior, and human relationships. Organizations, amidst the chaos, have innovatively adapted to the evolving situation. However, many countries were unprepared for the magnitude of the challenge, revealing the fragility of health responses due to inadequate leadership, insufficient resources, and poor information system integration. Structural changes in health systems are imperative, particularly in leadership, governance, human resources, financing, information systems, technology, and health service provision. This research utilizes the Technological Roadmapping method to analyze the health sector, focusing on public health, drawing on articles from SCOPUS and PubMed databases, and creating a roadmap extending to 2050. The research presents three long-term scenarios based on the literature-derived roadmap and explores various alternatives, including integrated care, telemedicine, Big Data utilization, nanotechnology, and Big Tech's AI services. The results underscore the anticipation of post-pandemic public health with high expectations, emphasizing the importance of integrating health history access, encouraging self-care, and leveraging technology for streamlined treatment. Practical implications include insights for decision makers and stakeholders to inform strategic planning and adapt to evolving industry demands, recognizing the significance of preventive services and the humanizing potential of technology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leonardo El-Warrak
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Mariano Nunes
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Gabriel Luna
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Carlos Eduardo Barbosa
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
- Centro de Análises de Sistemas Navais, Rio de Janeiro 20091-000, Brazil
| | - Alan Lyra
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Matheus Argôlo
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Yuri Lima
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Herbert Salazar
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Jano Moreira de Souza
- Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil; (L.E.-W.); (G.L.); (Y.L.); (H.S.)
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