Machine learning algorithms for predicting low birth weight in Ethiopia

A computational model to analyze the impact of birth weight-nutritional status pair on disease development and disease recovery

Purpose

The purpose of this work is to analyse the combined impacts of birth weight and nutritional status on development and recovery of various types of diseases. This work aims to computationally establish the facts about the effects of individual birth weight-nutritional status pairs on disease development and disease recovery.

Methods

This work designs a computational model to analyze the impact of birth weight-nutritional status pairs on disease development and disease recovery. Our model works in two phases. The first phase finds the best machine learning model to predict birth weight from "Child Birth Weight Dataset" available at IEEE Dataport (https://dx.doi.org/10.21227/dvd4-3232). The second phase combines the predicted birth weight labels with nutritional status labels and establishes the effects using differential equations.

Results

The experimental results find Gradient boosting (GB) to work the best with Information gain (IGT) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with Chi-square test (CST) for predicting the birth weights. The simulated results establish that "normal birth weight and normal nutritional status" is the best pair for resisting disease development as well as enhancing disease recovery. The results also depict that "low birth weight and malnutrition" is the worst pair for disease development while "high birth weight and malnutrition" is the worst combination for disease recovery.

Conclusion

The findings computationally establish the facts about the effects of birth weight-nutritional status pairs on disease development and disease recovery. As a social implication, this study can spread awareness about the importance of birth weight and nutritional status. The outcome can be helpful for the concerned authority in making decisions on healthcare cost and expenditure.

Prediction of incomplete immunization among under-five children in East Africa from recent demographic and health surveys: a machine learning approach

The World Health Organization as part of the goal of universal vaccination coverage by 2030 for all individuals. The global under-five mortality rate declined from 59% in 1990 to 38% in 2019, due to high immunization coverage. Despite the significant improvements in immunization coverage, about 20 million children were either unvaccinated or had incomplete immunization, making them more susceptible to mortality and morbidity. This study aimed to identify predictors of incomplete vaccination among children under-5 years in East Africa. An analysis of secondary data from six east African countries using Demographic and Health Survey dataset from 2016 to the recent 2021 was performed. A total weighted sample of 27,806 children aged (12-35) months was included in this study. Data were extracted using STATA version 17 statistical software and imported to a Jupyter notebook for further analysis. A supervised machine learning algorithm was implemented using different classification models. All analysis and calculations were performed using Python 3 programming language in Jupyter Notebook using imblearn, sklearn, XGBoost, and shap packages. XGBoost classifier demonstrated the best performance with accuracy (79.01%), recall (89.88%), F1-score (81.10%), precision (73.89%), and AUC 86%. Predictors of incomplete immunization are identified using XGBoost models with help of Shapely additive eXplanation. This study revealed that the number of living children during birth, antenatal care follow-up, maternal age, place of delivery, birth order, preceding birth interval and mothers' occupation were the top predicting factors of incomplete immunization. Thus, family planning programs should prioritize the number of living children during birth and the preceding birth interval by enhancing maternal education. In conclusion promoting institutional delivery and increasing the number of antenatal care follow-ups by more than fourfold is encouraged.

An artificial intelligence approach to predict infants' health status at birth

BACKGROUND

Machine learning could be used for prognosis/diagnosis of maternal and neonates' diseases by analyzing the data sets and profiles obtained from a pregnant mother.

PURPOSE

We aimed to develop a prediction model based on machine learning algorithms to determine important maternal characteristics and neonates' anthropometric profiles as the predictors of neonates' health status.

METHODS

This study was conducted among 1280 pregnant women referred to healthcare centers to receive antenatal care. We evaluated several machine learning methods, including support vector machine (SVM), Ensemble, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Decision tree classifiers, to predict newborn health state.

RESULTS

The minimum redundancy-maximum relevance (MRMR) algorithm revealed that variables, including head circumference of neonates, pregnancy intention, and drug consumption history during pregnancy, were top-scored features for classifying normal and unhealthy infants. Among the different classification methods, the SVM classifier had the best performance. The average values of accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the test group were 75%, 75%, 76%, 76%, and 65%, respectively, for SVM model.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning methods can efficiently forecast the neonate's health status among pregnant women. This study proposed a new approach toward the integration of maternal data and neonate profiles to facilitate the prediction of neonates' health status.

Machine learning-based approach for predicting low birth weight

BACKGROUND

Low birth weight (LBW) has been linked to infant mortality. Predicting LBW is a valuable preventative tool and predictor of newborn health risks. The current study employed a machine learning model to predict LBW.

METHODS

This study implemented predictive LBW models based on the data obtained from the "Iranian Maternal and Neonatal Network (IMaN Net)" from January 2020 to January 2022. Women with singleton pregnancies above the gestational age of 24 weeks were included. Exclusion criteria included multiple pregnancies and fetal anomalies. A predictive model was built using eight statistical learning models (logistic regression, decision tree classification, random forest classification, deep learning feedforward, extreme gradient boost model, light gradient boost model, support vector machine, and permutation feature classification with k-nearest neighbors). Expert opinion and prior observational cohorts were used to select candidate LBW predictors for all models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score were measured to evaluate their diagnostic performance.

RESULTS

We found 1280 women with a recorded LBW out of 8853 deliveries, for a frequency of 14.5%. Deep learning (AUROC: 0.86), random forest classification (AUROC: 0.79), and extreme gradient boost classification (AUROC: 0.79) all have higher AUROC and perform better than others. When the other performance parameters of the models mentioned above with higher AUROC were compared, the extreme gradient boost model was the best model to predict LBW with an accuracy of 0.79, precision of 0.87, recall of 0.69, and F1 score of 0.77. According to the feature importance rank, gestational age and prior history of LBW were the top critical predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Although this study found that the extreme gradient boost model performed well in predicting LBW, more research is needed to make a better conclusion on the performance of ML models in predicting LBW.

Machine learning approach for the detection of vitamin D level: a comparative study

BACKGROUND

After the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of Vitamin D has become even more critical for people worldwide. The most accurate way to define vitamin D level is 25-hydroxy vitamin D(25-OH-D) blood test. However, this blood test is not always feasible. Most data sets used in health science research usually contain highly correlated features, which is referred to as multicollinearity problem. This problem can lead to misleading results and overfitting problems in the ML training process. Therefore, the proposed study aims to determine a clinically acceptable ML model for the detection of the vitamin D status of the North Cyprus adult participants accurately, without the need to determine 25-OH-D level, taking into account the multicollinearity problem.

METHOD

The study was conducted with 481 observations who applied voluntarily to Internal Medicine Department at NEU Hospital. The classification performance of four conventional supervised ML models, namely, Ordinal logistic regression(OLR), Elastic-net ordinal regression(ENOR), Support Vector Machine(SVM), and Random Forest (RF) was compared. The comparative analysis is performed regarding the model's sensitivity to the participant's metabolic syndrome(MtS)'positive status, hyper-parameter tuning, sensitivities to the size of training data, and the classification performance of the models.

RESULTS

Due to the presence of multicollinearity, the findings showed that the performance of the SVM(RBF) is obviously negatively affected when the test is examined. Moreover, it can be obviously detected that RF is more robust than other models when the variations in the size of training data are examined. This experiment's result showed that the selected RF and ENOR showed better performances than the other two models when the size of training samples was reduced. Since the multicollinearity is more severe in the small samples, it can be concluded that RF and ENOR are not affected by the presence of the multicollinearity problem. The comparative analysis revealed that the RF classifier performed better and was more robust than the other proposed models in terms of accuracy (0.94), specificity (0.96), sensitivity or recall (0.94), precision (0.95), F1-score (0.95), and Cohen's kappa (0.90).

CONCLUSION

It is evident that the RF achieved better than the SVM(RBF), ENOR, and OLR. These comparison findings will be applied to develop a Vitamin D level intelligent detection system for being used in routine clinical, biochemical tests, and lifestyle characteristics of individuals to decrease the cost and time of vitamin D level detection.

Issue of Data Imbalance on Low Birthweight Baby Outcomes Prediction and Associated Risk Factors Identification: Establishment of Benchmarking Key Machine Learning Models With Data Rebalancing Strategies

BACKGROUND

Low birthweight (LBW) is a leading cause of neonatal mortality in the United States and a major causative factor of adverse health effects in newborns. Identifying high-risk patients early in prenatal care is crucial to preventing adverse outcomes. Previous studies have proposed various machine learning (ML) models for LBW prediction task, but they were limited by small and imbalanced data sets. Some authors attempted to address this through different data rebalancing methods. However, most of their reported performances did not reflect the models' actual performance in real-life scenarios. To date, few studies have successfully benchmarked the performance of ML models in maternal health; thus, it is critical to establish benchmarks to advance ML use to subsequently improve birth outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish several key benchmarking ML models to predict LBW and systematically apply different rebalancing optimization methods to a large-scale and extremely imbalanced all-payer hospital record data set that connects mother and baby data at a state level in the United States. We also performed feature importance analysis to identify the most contributing features in the LBW classification task, which can aid in targeted intervention.

METHODS

Our large data set consisted of 266,687 birth records across 6 years, and 8.63% (n=23,019) of records were labeled as LBW. To set up benchmarking ML models to predict LBW, we applied 7 classic ML models (ie, logistic regression, naive Bayes, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, adaptive boosting, multilayer perceptron, and sequential artificial neural network) while using 4 different data rebalancing methods: random undersampling, random oversampling, synthetic minority oversampling technique, and weight rebalancing. Owing to ethical considerations, in addition to ML evaluation metrics, we primarily used recall to evaluate model performance, indicating the number of correctly predicted LBW cases out of all actual LBW cases, as false negative health care outcomes could be fatal. We further analyzed feature importance to explore the degree to which each feature contributed to ML model prediction among our best-performing models.

RESULTS

We found that extreme gradient boosting achieved the highest recall score-0.70-using the weight rebalancing method. Our results showed that various data rebalancing methods improved the prediction performance of the LBW group substantially. From the feature importance analysis, maternal race, age, payment source, sum of predelivery emergency department and inpatient hospitalizations, predelivery disease profile, and different social vulnerability index components were important risk factors associated with LBW.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings establish useful ML benchmarks to improve birth outcomes in the maternal health domain. They are informative to identify the minority class (ie, LBW) based on an extremely imbalanced data set, which may guide the development of personalized LBW early prevention, clinical interventions, and statewide maternal and infant health policy changes.