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Gandjour A. Evaluating the Usefulness of Population-Wide COVID-19 Testing in the Omicron Era: Insights from a German Model. DAS GESUNDHEITSWESEN 2024. [PMID: 39047785 DOI: 10.1055/a-2328-4165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/27/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, which has become dominant worldwide since late 2021, presents a unique challenge due to its high rate of asymptomatic transmission. This study evaluates the efficacy and value of population-wide testing, including self-testing, in the context of COVID-19, particularly under the Omicron variant, using data from Germany. METHODS A decision-analytical model and secondary data was used for assessing the impact of systematic screening and testing for COVID-19. Various scenarios were taken into consideration including seasonal patterns of COVID-19 transmission and the potential for annual waves. The model assessed the clinical benefits of testing against the backdrop of vaccine effectiveness, transmission rates, and the potential to prevent severe clinical events, including death, ICU admission, and long COVID syndrome. RESULTS The study found that the value of mass testing and self-testing for private use was highly contingent on the transmission rate and the scenario of COVID-19 waves (seasonal vs. continuous). For winter waves, a very high incidence rate was required to justify testing, while for continuous waves, testing could be valuable for those in contact with individuals in their last decade of life. The analysis highlighted the limitations of mass testing when community transmission rates were low and the potential value of testing in high-risk contacts or amidst new outbreaks. DISCUSSION The findings suggest that the resumption of testing during winter waves is unlikely to provide significant clinical benefits given the current understanding of Omicron's transmission and immunity waning. This study underscores the need for a nuanced approach to COVID-19 testing policies, considering both the epidemiological context and the practical implications of testing strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Afschin Gandjour
- Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH Economics Department, Frankfurt, Germany
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Espinosa O, Mora L, Sanabria C, Ramos A, Rincón D, Bejarano V, Rodríguez J, Barrera N, Álvarez-Moreno C, Cortés J, Saavedra C, Robayo A, Franco OH. Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review. Syst Rev 2024; 13:30. [PMID: 38229123 PMCID: PMC10790449 DOI: 10.1186/s13643-023-02411-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2022] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The interaction between modelers and policymakers is becoming more common due to the increase in computing speed seen in recent decades. The recent pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was no exception. Thus, this study aims to identify and assess epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data, including immunization for coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). METHODOLOGY PubMed, JSTOR, medRxiv, LILACS, EconLit, and other databases were searched for studies employing epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data. We summarized the information qualitatively, and each article included was assessed for bias risk using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) and PROBAST checklist tool. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42022344542. FINDINGS In total, 5646 articles were retrieved, of which 411 were included. Most of the information was published in 2021. The countries with the highest number of studies were the United States, Canada, China, and the United Kingdom; no studies were found in low-income countries. The SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) was the most frequently used approach, followed by agent-based modeling. Moreover, the most commonly used software were R, Matlab, and Python, with the most recurring health outcomes being death and recovery. According to the JBI assessment, 61.4% of articles were considered to have a low risk of bias. INTERPRETATION The utilization of mathematical models increased following the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Stakeholders have begun to incorporate these analytical tools more extensively into public policy, enabling the construction of various scenarios for public health. This contribution adds value to informed decision-making. Therefore, understanding their advancements, strengths, and limitations is essential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oscar Espinosa
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia.
| | - Laura Mora
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Cristian Sanabria
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Antonio Ramos
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Duván Rincón
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Valeria Bejarano
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Jhonathan Rodríguez
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Nicolás Barrera
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | | | - Jorge Cortés
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Carlos Saavedra
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Adriana Robayo
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Oscar H Franco
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University & Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA
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Elvidge J, Hopkin G, Narayanan N, Nicholls D, Dawoud D. Diagnostics and treatments of COVID-19: two-year update to a living systematic review of economic evaluations. Front Pharmacol 2023; 14:1291164. [PMID: 38035028 PMCID: PMC10687367 DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2023.1291164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives: As the initial crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, healthcare decision makers are likely to want to make rational evidence-guided choices between the many interventions now available. We sought to update a systematic review to provide an up-to-date summary of the cost-effectiveness evidence regarding tests for SARS-CoV-2 and treatments for COVID-19. Methods: Key databases, including MEDLINE, EconLit and Embase, were searched on 3 July 2023, 2 years on from the first iteration of this review in July 2021. We also examined health technology assessment (HTA) reports and the citations of included studies and reviews. Peer-reviewed studies reporting full health economic evaluations of tests or treatments in English were included. Studies were quality assessed using an established checklist, and those with very serious limitations were excluded. Data from included studies were extracted into predefined tables. Results: The database search identified 8,287 unique records, of which 54 full texts were reviewed, 28 proceeded for quality assessment, and 15 were included. Three further studies were included through HTA sources and citation checking. Of the 18 studies ultimately included, 17 evaluated treatments including corticosteroids, antivirals and immunotherapies. In most studies, the comparator was standard care. Two studies in lower-income settings evaluated the cost effectiveness of rapid antigen tests and critical care provision. There were 17 modelling analyses and 1 trial-based evaluation. Conclusion: A large number of economic evaluations of interventions for COVID-19 have been published since July 2021. Their findings can help decision makers to prioritise between competing interventions, such as the repurposed antivirals and immunotherapies now available to treat COVID-19. However, some evidence gaps remain present, including head-to-head analyses, disease-specific utility values, and consideration of different disease variants. Systematic Review Registration: [https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021272219], identifier [PROSPERO 2021 CRD42021272219].
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie Elvidge
- Science, Evidence and Analytics Directorate, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Gareth Hopkin
- Science, Evidence and Analytics Directorate, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Nithin Narayanan
- Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
| | - David Nicholls
- Science, Evidence and Analytics Directorate, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Dalia Dawoud
- Science, Evidence and Analytics Directorate, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Manchester, United Kingdom
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Jairoun AA, Al-Hemyari SS, Abdulla NM, Al Ani M, Habeb M, Shahwan M, Jaber AAS, El-Dahiyat F, Jairoun M. Knowledge about, acceptance of and willingness to use over-the-counter COVID-19 self-testing kits. JOURNAL OF PHARMACEUTICAL HEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/jphsr/rmac037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
Objectives
Early investments in new diagnostic technologies that allow for rapid and decentralized testing were critical in reducing SARS-CoV-2’s detrimental health and economic effects. This study evaluates public knowledge about, acceptance of and willingness to use COVID-19 self-testing kits.
Methods
An online descriptive cross-sectional questionnaire was used in this study. The final study population included all contacted national and resident adults, age 18 and over, who were willing to engage in the study. The survey was divided according to participants’ demographic information and 11 questions assessed the respondents’ understanding of and willingness to use COVID-19 self-testing kits. The statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 24. Multivariate linear regression models were used to identify the factors influencing respondents’ knowledge of and attitudes toward the acceptability of self-testing kits for COVID-19 and their willingness to use these kits.
Key findings
A total of 876 respondents participated in the study and completed the whole questionnaire. The average knowledge score on the acceptability of and willingness to use self-testing kits for COVID-19 was 70.2%, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) [69.1%, 71.4%]. Participants who were postgraduate, female and vaccinated against COVID-19, as well as employees and older participants, were jointly highly associated with higher levels of knowledge about, acceptance of and willingness to use self-testing kits for COVID-19. Moreover, participants who had been infected with COVID-19, were vaccinated against COVID-19 or were female, employees, older, Western or Arabic were jointly highly associated with positive attitudes about the acceptability of and willingness to use self-testing kits for COVID-19.
Conclusions
The majority of the respondents have acceptable levels of knowledge about, acceptance of and willingness to use self-testing kits for COVID-19. Nonetheless, future studies should consider the issues of pre- and post-test counselling, false negative results and the sale of unregulated testing kits. Additional information should be communicated so that people can make informed decisions and be protected from possible abuse of COVID-19 self-testing kits when they become available in pharmacies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun
- Health and Safety Department, Dubai Municipality , Dubai , UAE
- School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) , Pulau Pinang , Malaysia
| | - Sabaa Saleh Al-Hemyari
- School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) , Pulau Pinang , Malaysia
- Pharmacy Department, Emirates Health Services , Dubai , UAE
| | - Naseem Mohammed Abdulla
- Health and Safety Department, Dubai Municipality , Dubai , UAE
- School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University (HBMSU) , Dubai , UAE
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Canadian University Dubai , Dubai , UAE
| | - Mena Al Ani
- Developmental Biology & Cancer Department, University College London, UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health , London , UK
| | - Mustafa Habeb
- Edgware Community Hospital Barnet, Enfield and Haringey Mental Health NHS Trust , London , UK
| | - Moyad Shahwan
- College of Pharmacy and Health Science, Ajman University , Ajman , UAE
- Center of Medical and Bio-allied Health Sciences Research, Ajman University , Ajman , UAE
| | - Ammar Ali Saleh Jaber
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy & Pharmacotherapeutics, Dubai Pharmacy College for Girls , Al Muhaisanah 1, Al mizhar Dubai , UAE
| | - Faris El-Dahiyat
- Clinical Pharmacy Program, College of Pharmacy, Al Ain University , Al Ain , UAE
- AAU Health and Biomedical Research Center, Al Ain University , Abu Dhabi , UAE
| | - Maimona Jairoun
- College of Pharmacy and Health Science, Ajman University , Ajman , UAE
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Zhou L, Yan W, Li S, Yang H, Zhang X, Lu W, Liu J, Wang Y. Cost-effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of COVID-19: Systematic review of 85 modelling studies. J Glob Health 2022; 12:05022. [PMID: 35712857 PMCID: PMC9196831 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.05022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background We aimed to quantitatively summarise the health economic evaluation evidence of prevention and control programs addressing COVID-19 globally. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the economic and health benefit of interventions for COVID-19. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library of economic evaluation from December 31, 2019, to March 22, 2022, to identify relevant literature. Meta-analyses were done using random-effects models to estimate pooled incremental net benefit (INB). Heterogeneity was assessed using I2 statistics and publication bias was assessed by Egger's test. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021267475. Results Of 16 860 studies identified, 85 articles were included in the systematic review, and 25 articles (10 studies about non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), five studies about vaccinations and 10 studies about treatments) were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled INB of NPIs, vaccinations, and treatments were $1378.10 (95% CI = $1079.62, $1676.59), $254.80 (95% CI = $169.84, $339.77) and $4115.11 (95% CI = $1631.09, $6599.14), respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed similar findings. Conclusions NPIs, vaccinations, and treatments are all cost-effective in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evidence was mostly from high-income and middle-income countries. Further studies from lower-income countries are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lihui Zhou
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Wenxin Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Shu Li
- School of Management, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Hongxi Yang
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Xinyu Zhang
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Wenli Lu
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Jue Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Institute for Global Health and Development, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yaogang Wang
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- Health Science and Engineering College, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
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