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Crosland P, Ho N, Hosseini SH, Vacher C, Skinner A, Natsky AN, Rosenberg S, Hasudungan R, Huntley S, Song YJC, Lee GY, Marshall DA, Occhipinti JA, Hickie IB. Cost-effectiveness of system-level mental health strategies for young people in the Australian Capital Territory: a dynamic simulation modelling study. Lancet Psychiatry 2024; 11:123-133. [PMID: 38245017 DOI: 10.1016/s2215-0366(23)00396-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regional mental health planning is a key challenge for decision makers because mental health care is a complex, dynamic system. Economic evaluation using a system dynamics modelling approach presents an opportunity for more sophisticated planning and important evidence on the value of alternative investments. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of eight systems-based interventions targeted at improving the mental health and wellbeing of children, adolescents, and young adults in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). METHODS We assessed eight interventions for children and young people (aged ≤25 years) with low, moderate, and high-to-very-high psychological distress: technology-enabled integrated care, emergency department-based suicide prevention, crisis response service, family education programme, online parenting programme, school-based suicide prevention programme, trauma service for youths, and multicultural-informed care. We developed a system dynamics model for the ACT through a participatory process and calibrated the model with historical data, including population demographics, the prevalence of psychological distress, and mental health services provision. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with business as usual for cost (AU$) per: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), suicide death avoided, self-harm related hospital admissions avoided, and mental health-related emergency department presentation, using a 10-year time horizon for health-care and societal perspectives. We investigated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis, including using a 30-year timeframe. FINDINGS From a societal perspective, increased investment in technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care were expected to improve health outcomes (incremental QALYs 4517 [95% UI -3135 to 14 507] for technology-enabled integrated care; 339 [91 to 661] for family education; 724 [114 to 1149] for the online parenting programme; and 137 [88 to 194] for multicultural-informed care) and reduce costs ($-91·4 million [-382·7 to 100·7]; $-12·8 million [-21·0 to -6·6]; $-3·6 million [-6·3 to 0·2]; and $-3·1 million [-4·5 to -1·8], respectively) compared with business as usual using a 10-year time horizon. The incremental net monetary benefit for the societal perspective for these four interventions was $452 million (-351 to 1555), $40 million (14 to 74), $61 million (9 to 98), and $14 million (9 to 20), respectively, compared with business as usual, when QALYs were monetised using a willingness to pay of $79 930 per QALY. Synergistic effects are anticipated if these interventions were to be implemented concurrently. The univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a high level of certainty in the results. Although emergency department-based suicide prevention and school-based suicide prevention were not cost effective in the base case (41 QALYs [0 to 48], incremental cost $4·1 million [1·2 to 8·2] for emergency department-based suicide prevention; -234 QALYs [-764 to 12], incremental cost $90·3 million [72·2 to 111·0] for school-based suicide prevention) compared with business as usual, there were scenarios for which these interventions could be considered cost effective. A dedicated trauma service for young people (9 QALYs gained [4 to 16], incremental cost $8·3 million [6·8 to 10·0]) and a crisis response service (-11 QALYs gained [-12 to -10], incremental cost $7·8 million [5·1 to 11·0]) were unlikely to be cost effective in terms of QALYs. INTERPRETATION Synergistic effects were identified, supporting the combined implementation of technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care. Synergistic effects, emergent outcomes in the form of unintended consequences, the capability to account for service capacity constraints, and ease of use by stakeholders are unique attributes of a system dynamics modelling approach to economic evaluation. FUNDING BHP Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Crosland
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| | - Nicholas Ho
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Seyed Hossein Hosseini
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Catherine Vacher
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Andrea N Natsky
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sebastian Rosenberg
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Raphael Hasudungan
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sam Huntley
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Yun Ju Christine Song
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Grace Yeeun Lee
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Deborah A Marshall
- Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary and Alberta Children's Hospital Research Institute, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Chen T, Reed H, Parra-Mujica F, Johnson EA, Johnson M, O'Flaherty M, Collins B, Kypridemos C. Quantifying the mental health and economic impacts of prospective Universal Basic Income schemes among young people in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e075831. [PMID: 37793925 PMCID: PMC10551934 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-075831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/06/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Universal Basic Income (UBI)-a largely unconditional, regular payment to all adults to support basic needs-has been proposed as a policy to increase the size and security of household incomes and promote mental health. We aimed to quantify its long-term impact on mental health among young people in England. METHODS We produced a discrete-time dynamic stochastic microsimulation that models a close-to-reality open cohort of synthetic individuals (2010-2030) based on data from Office for National Statistics and Understanding Society. Three UBI scheme scenarios were simulated: Scheme 1-Starter (per week): £41 per child; £63 per adult over 18 and under 65; £190 per adult aged 65+; Scheme 2-Intermediate (per week): £63 per child; £145 per adult under 65; £190 per adult aged 65+; Scheme 3-Minimum Income Standard level (per week): £95 per child; £230 per adult under 65; £230 per adult aged 65+. We reported cases of anxiety and depression prevented or postponed and cost savings. Estimates are rounded to the second significant digit. RESULTS Scheme 1 could prevent or postpone 200 000 (95% uncertainty interval: 180 000 to 210 000) cases of anxiety and depression from 2010 to 2030. This would increase to 420 000(400 000 to 440 000) for Scheme 2 and 550 000(520 000 to 570 000) for Scheme 3. Assuming that 50% of the cases are diagnosed and treated, Scheme 1 could save £330 million (£280 million to £390 million) to National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services (PSS), over the same period, with Scheme 2 (£710 million (£640 million to £790 million)) or Scheme 3 (£930 million (£850 million to £1000 million)) producing more considerable savings. Overall, total cost savings (including NHS, PSS and patients' related costs) would range from £1.5 billion (£1.2 billion to £1.8 billion) for Scheme 1 to £4.2 billion (£3.7 billion to £4.6 billion) for Scheme 3. CONCLUSION Our modelling suggests that UBI could substantially benefit young people's mental health, producing substantial health-related cost savings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Chen
- Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- Center for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
| | - Howard Reed
- Social Work, Education and Community Wellbeing, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Landman Economics Ltd, Colchester, UK
| | - Fiorella Parra-Mujica
- School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Elliott Aidan Johnson
- Social Work, Education and Community Wellbeing, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Matthew Johnson
- Social Work, Education and Community Wellbeing, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Martin O'Flaherty
- Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Brendan Collins
- Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Chris Kypridemos
- Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
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