Shoulder replacement surgery's rising demand, inequality of provision, and variation in outcomes: cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics for England

Risk of serious adverse events after primary shoulder replacement: development and external validation of a prediction model using linked national data from England and Denmark

BACKGROUND

Despite a rising rate of serious medical complications after shoulder replacement surgery, there are no prediction models in widespread use to guide surgeons in identifying patients at high risk and to provide patients with personalised risk estimates to support shared decision making. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a prediction model for serious adverse events within 90 days of primary shoulder replacement surgery.

METHODS

Linked data from the National Joint Registry, National Health Service Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care of England, and Civil Registration Mortality databases and Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Registry and National Patient Register were used for our modelling study. Patients aged 18-100 years who had a primary shoulder replacement between April 1, 2012, and Oct 2, 2020, in England, and April 1, 2012, and Oct 2, 2018, in Denmark, were included. We developed a multivariable logistic regression model using the English dataset to predict the risk of 90-day serious adverse events, which were defined as medical complications requiring admission to hospital and all-cause death. We undertook internal validation using bootstrapping, and internal-external cross-validation across different geographical regions of England. The English model was externally validated on the Danish dataset.

FINDINGS

Data for 40 631 patients undergoing primary shoulder replacement (mean age 72·5 years [SD 9·9]; 28 709 [70·7%] women and 11 922 [29·3%] men) were used for model development, of whom 2270 (5·6%) had a 90-day serious adverse event. On internal validation, the model had a C-statistic of 0·717 (95% CI 0·707-0·728) and was well calibrated. Internal-external cross-validation showed consistent model performance across all regions in England. Upon external validation on the Danish dataset (n=6653; mean age 70·5 years [SD 10·3]; 4503 [67·7%] women and 2150 [32·3%] men), the model had a C-statistic of 0·750 (95% CI 0·723-0·776). Decision curve analysis showed clinical utility, with net benefit across all risk thresholds.

INTERPRETATION

This externally validated prediction model uses commonly available clinical variables to accurately predict the risk of serious medical complications after primary shoulder replacement surgery. The model is generalisable and applicable to most patients in need of a shoulder replacement. Its use offers support to clinicians and could inform and empower patients in the shared decision-making process.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Denmark.

Venous Thromboembolism Chemical Prophylaxis in Patients Undergoing Shoulder Arthroscopy

» Venous thromboembolism (VTE) after shoulder arthroscopy is rare (0.01%-0.38%) but impacts a significant number of patients because of the high procedure volume.» Studies found no significant benefit in reducing VTE risk with aspirin or low-molecular-weight heparins.» Current guidelines for thromboprophylaxis in shoulder arthroscopy lack consensus and need patient-specific considerations.» Further research is required to develop evidence-based thromboprophylaxis guidelines for shoulder arthroscopy.

Outcome of reverse shoulder arthroplasty secondary to rotator cuff arthropathy in a low-income population

BACKGROUND

Reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) is a valuable treatment for rotator cuff arthropathy (RCA) in developed regions. Socioeconomic issues impact access to specialized care and there is a lack of data on RSA outcomes in developing regions. We present our 24-month follow-up on RSA surgeries to treat RCA in our low-income population.

METHODS

Prospective evaluation of 26 patients subjected to RSA at Hospital Geral de Fortaleza-CE, Brazil, between January 2018 and December 2020. Literacy [>/≤ 8 school years(SY)] and income were documented. Outcomes considered pain (visual analogue scale; VAS) as well as SSV, SPADI, ASES, and UCLA scoring, and range of motion [forward flexion (FF); external rotation (ER)].

RESULTS

Patients were 68.5 ± 7.6 years-old with 16(61.5%) females; 65% had hypertension and 7 (26.9%) had diabetes. Over 90% declared < 900.00 US$ monthly family earnings and 10 (38.4%) patients declared ≤8 SY with > 80% exerting blue-collar jobs. Pain showed a significant reduction from baseline (8 ± 2) to 24 months (2.1 ± 2.3; p < 0.001). UCLA (10.3 ± 5.6 and 28.6 ± 7.2), ASES (16.7 ± 10.8 and 63.1 ± 28.4), SSV (326 ± 311 and 760 ± 234), and SPADI (98.3 ± 26.5) scores significantly improved from baseline to 24 months, achieving minimal clinically important difference. FF (89.2° ± 51.2° to 140.6 ± 38.3°) and ER (19.2° ± 22.5 to 33.4° ± 20.6°) significantly improved from baseline to 24 months (p = 0.004 and 0.027, respectively). There were 5 non-serious adverse events with one surgical revision. All patients returned to daily life activities.

CONCLUSION

This is the first outcome report 2 years following RSA in a low-income population. Data indicate this procedure is justifiable regardless of socioeconomic issues.