Baseline diabetes as a way to predict CV outcomes in a lipid-modifying trial: a meta-analysis of 330,376 patients from 47 landmark studies

New onset diabetes in adulthood is associated with a substantial risk for mortality at all ages: a population based historical cohort study with a decade-long follow-up

BACKGROUND

Diabetes has been reported to be associated with an increased relative risk for mortality, with estimates ranging from 1.1 to 2.1. Findings are inconsistent regarding modification of the risk by gender and by age. The aim of this study was to estimate the mortality risk associated with new-onset diabetes in adulthood, by age group and gender.

METHODS

From the database of a large health care provider, we identified 31,987 individuals diagnosed with diabetes during 2003-2005; and 162,656 individuals without diabetes, group-matched by age. We used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for overall mortality adjusted for age, gender, socioeconomic (SE) level, obesity, smoking and comorbidities at baseline.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 4464 (14%) of persons with diabetes and 13,327 (8.2%) of those without died. Among persons with incident diabetes, the proportion of men, smokers, obese and patients of low SE level was higher, as was the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and renal impairment at baseline. Incident diabetes was associated with an adjusted HR for mortality of 1.38 (95% CI 1.32-1.43). Mortality HR for DM was comparable with hypertension (1.42; 1.37-1.46), smoking (1.65; 1.58-1.71) and atherosclerosis (1.40; 1.35-1.46). Diabetes associated mortality HR was somewhat higher among women 1.78 (95% CI 1.58-2.08) as compared with men 1.51 (95% CI 1.41-1.62).

CONCLUSIONS

Incident diabetes in adults is associated with a substantial risk for mortality, especially in younger adults. Further efforts should be allocated to diabetes primary prevention.

A sudden death risk score specifically for hypertension: based on 25 648 individual patient data from six randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

To construct a sudden death risk score specifically for hypertension (HYSUD) patients with or without cardiovascular history.

METHODS

Data were collected from six randomized controlled trials of antihypertensive treatments with 8044 women and 17 604 men differing in age ranges and blood pressure eligibility criteria. In total, 345 sudden deaths (1.35%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 5.16 years. Risk factors of sudden death were examined using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted on trials. The model was transformed to an integer system, with points added for each factor according to its association with sudden death risk.

RESULTS

Antihypertensive treatment was not associated with a reduction of the sudden death risk and had no interaction with other factors, allowing model development on both treatment and placebo groups. A risk score of sudden death in 5 years was built with seven significant risk factors: age, sex, SBP, serum total cholesterol, cigarette smoking, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction. In terms of discrimination performance, HYSUD model was adequate with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 77.74% (confidence interval 95%, 74.13-81.35) for the derivation set, of 77.46% (74.09-80.83) for the validation set, and of 79.17% (75.94-82.40) for the whole population.

CONCLUSION

Our work provides a simple risk-scoring system for sudden death prediction in hypertension, using individual data from six randomized controlled trials of antihypertensive treatments. HYSUD score could help assessing a hypertensive individual's risk of sudden death and optimizing preventive therapeutic strategies for these patients.

Mortality and causes of death in a national sample of type 2 diabetic patients in Korea from 2002 to 2013

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate the mortality rate (MR), causes of death and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in Korean type 2 diabetic patients from 2002 to 2013 using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC).

METHODS

From this NHIS-NSC, we identified 29,807 type 2 diabetic subjects from 2002 to 2004. Type 2 diabetes was defined as a current medication history of anti-diabetic drugs and the presence of International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes (E11-E14) as diagnosis. Specific causes of death were recorded according to ICD-10 codes as the following: diabetes, malignant neoplasm, disease of the circulatory system, and other causes.

RESULTS

A total of 7103 (23.8 %) deaths were recorded. The MR tended to increase with age. In particular, the ratio of MR for men versus women was the highest in their 40s-50s. The overall SMR was 2.32 and the SMRs attenuated with increasing age. The causes of death ascribed to diabetes, malignant neoplasm, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and other causes were 22.0, 24.8, 6.2, 11.2 and 31.3 %, respectively. The SMRs according to each cause of death were 9.73, 1.76, 2.60, 2.04 and 1.89, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The MRs among type 2 diabetic subjects increased with age, and diabetic men exhibited a higher mortality risk than diabetic women in Korea. Subjects with type 2 diabetes exhibited an excess mortality when compared with the general population. Approximately 78.0 % of the diabetes-related deaths was not ascribed to diabetes, and malignant neoplasm was the most common cause of death among those not recorded as diabetes.