Predicting the impact of border control on malaria transmission: a simulated focal screen and treat campaign

Testing and treatment for malaria elimination: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Global interest in malaria elimination has prompted research on active test and treat (TaT) strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the effectiveness of TaT strategies to reduce malaria transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 72 empirical research and 24 modelling studies were identified, mainly focused on proactive mass TaT (MTaT) and reactive case detection (RACD) in higher and lower transmission settings, respectively. Ten intervention studies compared MTaT to no MTaT and the evidence for impact on malaria incidence was weak. No intervention studies compared RACD to no RACD. Compared to passive case detection (PCD) alone, PCD + RACD using standard diagnostics increased infection detection 52.7% and 11.3% in low and very low transmission settings, respectively. Using molecular methods increased this detection of infections by 1.4- and 1.1-fold, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest MTaT is not effective for reducing transmission. By increasing case detection, surveillance data provided by RACD may indirectly reduce transmission by informing coordinated responses of intervention targeting.

Perceived Health System Challenges of Implementing Cross-Border Malaria Preventive Measures at Ports of Entry in KwaZulu-Natal

Background

Cross-border movements, especially from a malaria-endemic neighbour, contribute to importation of malaria, as they provide favourable conditions for malaria transmission in the receiving country. In the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province of South Africa (SA), the uMkhanyakude district is one of the endemic malaria areas where the borders are characterised by frequent cross-border movements of travellers coming into the province, mostly from Mozambique. Many studies have suggested that regional efforts through the implementation of cross-border measures are needed in both the high- and low-endemic countries to effectively address imported malaria. The implementation of cross-border measures to prevent imported malaria has led to a significant decline in malaria cases in KZN and SA; however, those measures are subjected to various challenges.

Objective

This study sought to determine the health system challenges of implementing cross-border preventive measures for imported malaria at the Kosi Bay, Kwaphuza and Golela ports of entry in KZN.

Methods

This inquiry consisted of a mixed methods approach, of which the qualitative component is reported here. In-depth interviews were conducted with four purposively selected health officers working at the legal and illegal ports of entry of the KZN province. Data were coded manually and then analysed using thematic data and descriptive analyses.

Results

This study identified operational and prevention challenges. The related operational challenges included travellers' non-disclosure and refusal, uncontrolled cross-border movements and poor coverage as well as shortage of staff. The prevention challenges included lack of novelty in the existing cross-border preventive measures, insecurity and illegal migration. Concerning travellers' non-disclosure and refusal to cooperate, these issues occur at the legal ports of entry of Kosi Bay and Golela, where travellers were less cooperative in disclosing their health-related information to health border officers. They were more eager to cross and attend to their business. The findings revealed a lack of new ideas in the existing cross-border measures for the prevention of imported malaria, which some scientists considered as the reason for the failure of the elimination efforts in SA. Because of the porous borders and the shortage of staff to cover all the uncontrolled entries, travellers constantly crossed without any hindrances. Porous borders exposed the people living at the border areas and travellers to insecurity, promoted criminal activities and encouraged illegal migration.

Conclusion

Cross-border malaria preventive measures are meant to contribute to decreased travel-related disease. Failure to attain this purpose must be carefully examined and mitigation strategies implemented. The study revealed the challenges of implementing cross-border measures at the KZN ports of entry of Kosi Bay, Kwaphuza and Golela. The challenges occurred at the operational and prevention levels, which, if not effectively addressed, could impede the decrease of imported malaria in the malaria-endemic district of KZN and SA in general.

Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost-benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period.

METHODS

A dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model.

RESULTS

Based on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018-2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.

Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: a population level mathematical modelling approach

BACKGROUND

This paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the country.

METHODS

Using data from the District Health Information Management System of the Ghana Health Service from 2008 to 2017, and historical intervention coverage levels, ordinary non-linear differential equations models were developed. These models incorporated transitions amongst various disease compartments for the three main ecological zones in Ghana. The Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach, with a distance based rejection criteria, was adopted for calibration. A leave-one-out approach was used to validate model parameters and the most sensitive parameters were evaluated using a multivariate regression analysis. The impact of insecticide-treated bed nets and their usage, and indoor residual spraying, as well as their protective efficacy on the incidence of malaria, was simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone to investigate the prospects of achieving goals of the Ghana malaria control strategy for 2014-2020.

RESULTS

Increasing the coverage levels of both long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying activities, without a corresponding increase in their recommended utilization, does not impact highly on averting predicted incidence of malaria. Improving proper usage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets could lead to substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying across all ecological zones of Ghana.

CONCLUSIONS

Projected goals set in the national strategic plan for malaria control 2014-2020, as well as World Health Organization targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030, are only likely to be achieved if a substantial improvement in treated bed net usage is achieved, coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high community acceptability and efficacy.

High levels of imported asymptomatic malaria but limited local transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, a South African malaria-endemic province nearing malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

KwaZulu-Natal, one of South Africa's three malaria endemic provinces, is nearing malaria elimination, reporting fewer than 100 locally-acquired cases annually since 2010. Despite sustained implementation of essential interventions, including annual indoor residual spraying, prompt case detection using malaria rapid diagnostics tests and treatment with effective artemisinin-based combination therapy, low-level focal transmission persists in the province. This malaria prevalence and entomological survey was therefore undertaken to identify the drivers of this residual transmission.

METHODS

Malaria prevalence as well as malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices among community members and mobile migrant populations within uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal were assessed during a community-based malaria prevalence survey. All consenting participants were tested for malaria by both conventional and highly-sensitive falciparum-specific rapid diagnostic tests. Finger-prick filter-paper blood spots were also collected from all participants for downstream parasite genotyping analysis. Entomological investigations were conducted around the surveyed households, with potential breeding sites geolocated and larvae collected for species identification and insecticide susceptibility testing. A random selection of households were assessed for indoor residual spray quality by cone bioassay.

RESULTS

A low malaria prevalence was confirmed in the study area, with only 2% (67/2979) of the participants found to be malaria positive by both conventional and highly-sensitive falciparum-specific rapid diagnostic tests. Malaria prevalence however differed markedly between the border market and community (p < 0001), with the majority of the detected malaria carriers (65/67) identified as asymptomatic Mozambican nationals transiting through the informal border market from Mozambique to economic hubs within South Africa. Genomic analysis of the malaria isolates revealed a high degree of heterozygosity and limited genetic relatedness between the isolates supporting the hypothesis of limited local malaria transmission within the province. New potential vector breeding sites, potential vector populations with reduced insecticide susceptibility and areas with sub-optimal vector intervention coverage were identified during the entomological investigations.

CONCLUSION

If KwaZulu-Natal is to successfully halt local malaria transmission and prevent the re-introduction of malaria, greater efforts need to be placed on detecting and treating malaria carriers at both formal and informal border crossings with transmission blocking anti-malarials, while ensuring optimal coverage of vector control interventions is achieved.

Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: a multi-species dynamic transmission model

Background: The Asia-Pacific region has made significant progress in combatting malaria since 2000 and a regional goal for a malaria-free Asia Pacific by 2030 has been recognised at the highest levels. External financing has recently plateaued and with competing health risks, countries face the risk of withdrawal of funding as malaria is perceived as less of a threat. An investment case was developed to provide economic evidence to inform policy and increase sustainable financing. Methods: A dynamic epidemiological-economic model was developed to project rates of decline to elimination by 2030 and determine the costs for elimination in the Asia-Pacific region. The compartmental model was used to capture the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria for the 22 countries in the region in a metapopulation framework. This paper presents the model development and epidemiological results of the simulation exercise. Results: The model predicted that all 22 countries could achieve Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax elimination by 2030, with the People’s Democratic Republic of China, Sri Lanka and the Republic of Korea predicted to do so without scaling up current interventions. Elimination was predicted to be possible in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Timor-Leste and Vietnam through an increase in long-lasting insecticidal nets (and/or indoor residual spraying) and health system strengthening, and in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, India and Thailand with the addition of innovations in drug therapy and vector control. Elimination was predicted to occur by 2030 in all other countries only through the addition of mass drug administration to scale-up and/or innovative activities. Conclusions: This study predicts that it is possible to have a malaria-free region by 2030. When computed into benefits and costs, the investment case can be used to advocate for sustained financing to realise the goal of malaria elimination in Asia-Pacific by 2030.

Designing malaria surveillance strategies for mobile and migrant populations in Nepal: a mixed-methods study

Background

As malaria cases have declined throughout Nepal, imported cases comprise an increasing share of the remaining malaria caseload, yet how to effectively target mobile and migrant populations (MMPs) at greatest risk is not well understood. This formative research aimed to confirm the link between imported and indigenous cases, characterize high-risk MMPs, and identify opportunities to adapt surveillance and intervention strategies to them.

Methods

The study used a mixed-methods approach in three districts in far and mid-western Nepal, including (i) a retrospective analysis of passive surveillance data, (ii) a quantitative health facility-based survey of imported cases and their MMP social contacts recruited by peer-referral, and (iii) focus group (FG) discussions and key informant interviews (KIIs) with a subset of survey participants. Retrospective case data were summarised and the association between monthly indigenous case counts and importation rates in the previous month was investigated using Bayesian spatio-temporal regression models. Quantitative data from structured interviews were summarised to develop profiles of imported cases and MMP contacts, including travel characteristics and malaria knowledge, attitudes and practice. Descriptive statistics of the size of cases’ MMP social networks are presented as a measure of potential programme reach. To explore opportunities and barriers for targeted malaria surveillance, data from FGs and KIIs were formally analysed using a thematic content analysis approach.

Results

More than half (54.1%) of malaria cases between 2013 and 2016 were classified as imported and there was a positive association between monthly indigenous cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.02 95% CI 1.01–1.03) and the previous month’s case importation rate. High-risk MMPs were identified as predominantly adult male labourers, who travel to malaria endemic areas of India, often lack a basic understanding of malaria transmission and prevention, rarely use ITNs while travelling and tend not to seek treatment when ill or prefer informal private providers. Important obstacles were identified to accessing Nepali MMPs at border crossings and at workplaces within India. However, strong social connectivity during travel and while in India, as well as return to Nepal for large seasonal festivals, provide opportunities for peer-referral-based and venue-based surveillance and intervention approaches, respectively.

Conclusions

Population mobility and imported malaria cases from India may help to drive local transmission in border areas of far and mid-western Nepal. Enhanced surveillance targeting high-risk MMP subgroups would improve early malaria diagnosis and treatment, as well as provide a platform for education and intervention campaigns. A combination of community-based approaches is likely necessary to achieve malaria elimination in Nepal.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2791-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: a multi-species dynamic transmission model

Background: The Asia-Pacific region has made significant progress in combatting malaria since 2000 and a regional goal for a malaria-free Asia Pacific by 2030 has been recognised at the highest levels. External financing has recently plateaued and with competing health risks, countries face the risk of withdrawal of funding as malaria is perceived as less of a threat. An investment case was developed to provide economic evidence to inform policy and increase sustainable financing. Methods: A dynamic epidemiological-economic model was developed to project rates of decline to elimination by 2030 and determine the costs for elimination in the Asia-Pacific region. The compartmental model was used to capture the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria for the 22 countries in the region in a metapopulation framework. This paper presents the model development and epidemiological results of the simulation exercise. Results: The model predicted that all 22 countries could achieve Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax elimination by 2030, with the People’s Democratic Republic of China, Sri Lanka and the Republic of Korea predicted to do so without scaling up current interventions. Elimination was predicted to be possible in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Timor-Leste and Vietnam through an increase in long-lasting insecticidal nets (and/or indoor residual spraying) and health system strengthening, and in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, India and Thailand with the addition of innovations in drug therapy and vector control. Elimination was predicted to occur by 2030 in all other countries only through the addition of mass drug administration to scale-up and/or innovative activities. Conclusions: This study predicts that it is possible to have a malaria-free region by 2030. When computed into benefits and costs, the investment case can be used to advocate for sustained financing to realise the goal of malaria elimination in Asia-Pacific by 2030.

Towards the implementation of malaria elimination policy in South Africa: the stakeholders' perspectives

Background: The past decade has seen substantial global reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality due to increased international funding and decisive steps by the international malaria community to fight malaria. South Africa has been declared ready to institute malaria elimination. However, research on the factors that would affect this policy implementation is inadequate.

Objective: To investigate the stakeholders’ understanding of the malaria elimination policy in South Africa, including their perceived barriers and facilitators to effective policy implementation.

Methods: The study followed a constructivist epistemological approach which manifests in phenomenological study design. Twelve purposively selected key informants from malaria researchers, provincial and national malaria programmes were interviewed using semi-structured interviews. Interview questions elicited interviewees’ knowledge of the policy and its achievability, including any perceived barriers and facilitating factors to effective implementation. The hybrid approach was used to perform thematic data analysis.

Results: The dominant view was that malaria remains a problem in South Africa, exacerbated by staff attitudes and poor capacity, lack of resources, lack of new effective intervention tools, lack of intra- and inter-departmental collaboration, poor cross-border collaboration and weak stakeholder collaboration. Informants were concerned about the target year (2018) for elimination, and about the process followed in developing the policy, including the perceived malaria epidemiology shortfalls, regulatory issues and political context of the policy.

Conclusions: Achievability of malaria elimination remains a subject of intense debate for a variety of reasons. These include the sporadic nature of malaria resurgence, raising questions about the contributions of malaria control interventions and climate to the transmission trends in South Africa. The shortage of resources, inadequate staff capacity, lack of any new effective intervention tools, and gaps in malaria epidemiology were key concerns, as was the superficially participative nature of the consultation process followed in developing the policy.

Towards malaria control and elimination in Ghana: challenges and decision making tools to guide planning

Ghana is classified as being in the malaria control phase, according to the global malaria elimination program. With many years of policy development and control interventions, malaria specific mortality among children less than 5 years old has declined from 14.4% in 2000 to 0.6% in 2012. However, the same level of success has not been achieved with malaria morbidity. The recently adopted 2015–2020 Ghana strategic action plan aims to reduce the burden of malaria by 75.0%. Planning and policy development has always been guided by evidence from field studies, and mathematical models that are able to investigate malaria transmission dynamics have not played a significant role in supporting policy development. The objectives of this study are to describe the malaria situation in Ghana and give a brief account of how mathematical modelling techniques could support a more informed malaria control effort in the Ghanaian context. A review is carried out of some mathematical models investigating the dynamics of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan African countries, including Ghana. The applications of these models are then discussed, considering the gaps that still remain in Ghana for which further mathematical model development could be supportive. Because of the collaborative approach adopted in their development, some model examples Ghana could benefit from are also discussed. Collaboration between malaria control experts and modellers will allow for more appropriate mathematical models to be developed. Packaging these models with user-friendly interfaces and making them available at various levels of malaria control management could help provide the decision making tools needed for planning and a platform for monitoring and evaluation of interventions in Ghana.

Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Much of the extensive research regarding transmission of malaria is underpinned by mathematical modelling. Compartmental models, which focus on interactions and transitions between population strata, have been a mainstay of such modelling for more than a century. However, modellers are increasingly adopting agent-based approaches, which model hosts, vectors and/or their interactions on an individual level. One reason for the increasing popularity of such models is their potential to provide enhanced realism by allowing system-level behaviours to emerge as a consequence of accumulated individual-level interactions, as occurs in real populations.

METHODS

A systematic review of 90 articles published between 1998 and May 2018 was performed, characterizing agent-based models (ABMs) relevant to malaria transmission. The review provides an overview of approaches used to date, determines the advantages of these approaches, and proposes ideas for progressing the field.

RESULTS

The rationale for ABM use over other modelling approaches centres around three points: the need to accurately represent increased stochasticity in low-transmission settings; the benefits of high-resolution spatial simulations; and heterogeneities in drug and vaccine efficacies due to individual patient characteristics. The success of these approaches provides avenues for further exploration of agent-based techniques for modelling malaria transmission. Potential extensions include varying elimination strategies across spatial landscapes, extending the size of spatial models, incorporating human movement dynamics, and developing increasingly comprehensive parameter estimation and optimization techniques.

CONCLUSION

Collectively, the literature covers an extensive array of topics, including the full spectrum of transmission and intervention regimes. Bringing these elements together under a common framework may enhance knowledge of, and guide policies towards, malaria elimination. However, because of the diversity of available models, endorsing a standardized approach to ABM implementation may not be possible. Instead it is recommended that model frameworks be contextually appropriate and sufficiently described. One key recommendation is to develop enhanced parameter estimation and optimization techniques. Extensions of current techniques will provide the robust results required to enhance current elimination efforts.

malERA: An updated research agenda for combination interventions and modelling in malaria elimination and eradication

This paper summarises key advances and priorities since the 2011 presentation of the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA), with a focus on the combinations of intervention tools and strategies for elimination and their evaluation using modelling approaches. With an increasing number of countries embarking on malaria elimination programmes, national and local decisions to select combinations of tools and deployment strategies directed at malaria elimination must address rapidly changing transmission patterns across diverse geographic areas. However, not all of these approaches can be systematically evaluated in the field. Thus, there is potential for modelling to investigate appropriate 'packages' of combined interventions that include various forms of vector control, case management, surveillance, and population-based approaches for different settings, particularly at lower transmission levels. Modelling can help prioritise which intervention packages should be tested in field studies, suggest which intervention package should be used at a particular level or stratum of transmission intensity, estimate the risk of resurgence when scaling down specific interventions after local transmission is interrupted, and evaluate the risk and impact of parasite drug resistance and vector insecticide resistance. However, modelling intervention package deployment against a heterogeneous transmission background is a challenge. Further validation of malaria models should be pursued through an iterative process, whereby field data collected with the deployment of intervention packages is used to refine models and make them progressively more relevant for assessing and predicting elimination outcomes.

The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years

Background

Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas.

Methods

The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates.

Results

Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death.

Conclusions

Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

Reviewing South Africa's malaria elimination strategy (2012-2018): progress, challenges and priorities

BACKGROUND

With a sustained national malaria incidence of fewer than one case per 1000 population at risk, in 2012 South Africa officially transitioned from controlling malaria to the ambitious goal of eliminating malaria within its borders by 2018. This review assesses the progress made in the 3 years since programme re-orientation while highlighting challenges and suggesting priorities for moving the malaria programme towards elimination.

METHODS

National malaria case data and annual spray coverage data from 2010 until 2014 were assessed for trends. Information on surveillance, monitoring and evaluation systems, human and infrastructure needs and community malaria knowledge was sourced from the national programme mid-term review.

RESULTS

Malaria cases increased markedly from 6811 in 2013 to 11,711 in 2014, with Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces most affected. Enhanced local transmission appeared to drive malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, while imported malaria cases accounted for the majority of cases reported in Mpumalanga Province. Despite these increases only Vhembe and Mopani districts in Limpopo Province reported malaria incidences more than one case per 1000 population at risk by 2014. Over the review period annual spray coverage did not reach the recommended target of 90 % coverage, with information gaps identified in parasite prevalence, artemether-lumefantrine therapeutic utilization, asymptomatic/sub-patent carriage, drug efficacy, vector distribution and insecticide resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

Although South Africa has made steady progress since adopting an elimination agenda, a number of challenges have been identified. The heterogeneity of malaria transmission suggests interventions in Vhembe and Mopani districts should focus on control, while in KwaZulu-Natal Province eliminating transmission foci should be prioritized. Cross-border initiatives with neighbouring countries should be established/strengthened as a matter of urgency since malaria importation poses a real threat to the country's elimination efforts. It is also critical that provincial programmes are adequately resourced to effectively conduct the necessary targeted elimination activities, informed by current vector/parasite distribution and resistance data. More sensitive methods to detect sub-patent infections, primaquine as a transmission-blocking drug, and alternative vector control methods need to be investigated. Knowledge gaps among malaria health workers and affected communities should be identified and addressed.

Optimal Population-Level Infection Detection Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination in a Spatial Model of Malaria Transmission

Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies are insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time, overtreatment of uninfected individuals increases the risk of accelerating emergence of drug resistance and losing community acceptance. Local heterogeneity in transmission intensity may allow campaign strategies that respond to index cases to successfully target subpatent infections while simultaneously limiting overtreatment. While selective targeting of hotspots of transmission has been proposed as a strategy for malaria control, such targeting has not been tested in the context of malaria elimination. Using household locations, demographics, and prevalence data from a survey of four health facility catchment areas in southern Zambia and an agent-based model of malaria transmission and immunity acquisition, a transmission intensity was fit to each household based on neighborhood age-dependent malaria prevalence. A set of individual infection trajectories was constructed for every household in each catchment area, accounting for heterogeneous exposure and immunity. Various campaign strategies—mass drug administration, mass screen and treat, focal mass drug administration, snowball reactive case detection, pooled sampling, and a hypothetical serological diagnostic—were simulated and evaluated for performance at finding infections, minimizing overtreatment, reducing clinical case counts, and interrupting transmission. For malaria control, presumptive treatment leads to substantial overtreatment without additional morbidity reduction under all but the highest transmission conditions. Compared with untargeted approaches, selective targeting of hotspots with drug campaigns is an ineffective tool for elimination due to limited sensitivity of available field diagnostics. Serological diagnosis is potentially an effective tool for malaria elimination but requires higher coverage to achieve similar results to mass distribution of presumptive treatment.

Millions of people worldwide live at risk for malaria, a parasitic infectious disease transmitted by mosquitoes. Great progress has been made in reducing malaria burden in recent years, and many regions are now devising strategies for elimination. One way to eliminate malaria is to deplete the reservoir of parasites in human hosts by treating large groups of people with antimalarial drugs. However, current field diagnostics are not sensitive enough to correctly identify all infected individuals. Presumptively administering antimalarial drugs to whole populations will effectively clear infections but can also lead to substantial overtreatment and encourage the evolution of drug resistance in parasites. We might be able to predict which individuals who test negative are actually infected based on whether their household members and neighbors are testing positive. Using a mathematical model of malaria immunity acquisition and a spatial dataset of malaria prevalence in southern Zambia, we simulate strategies of identifying infected individuals and compare each strategy’s ability to deplete the infectious reservoir and avoid overtreatment. We make different recommendations for optimal strategies depending on a region’s malaria prevalence.