Quantifying temporal trends of age-standardized rates with odds

Global burden of stroke attributable to high systolic blood pressure in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

Background

High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is severely related to stroke, although the global burden of stroke associated with HSBP needs to be understood.

Materials and methods

Data derived from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study were used to analyze deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR), age-standardized rates of DALY (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

Results

Globally, 52.57% of deaths and 55.54% of DALYs from stroke were attributable to HSBP in 2019, with higher levels in men; the ASMRs and ASDRs in 1990-2019 experienced a decline of 34.89% and 31.71%, respectively, with the highest ASMR- and ASDR-related EAPCs in women. The middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions showed the most numbers of deaths and DALYs in 2019 and 1990, with a decline in ASMR and ASDR; East Asia shared over 33% of global deaths and DALYs; Central Asia shared the highest ASMR and ASDR; high-income Asia Pacific experienced the highest decline in the ASMR- and ASDR-related EAPCs. Central and Southeast Asia had the highest percentages for deaths and DALYs, respectively, with more ASMR in high-middle SDI; the SDI and human development index were negatively associated with ASMR/ASDR and ASMR/ASDR-related EAPCs in 2019.

Conclusion

Global deaths and DALYs of stroke attributable to HSBP but none of their age-standardized rates have been on the rise over the past three decades; its disease burden focused especially on men aged 70 years and older in East, Central, and Southeast Asia, and the middle to high SDI regions.

Gender inequality and burden of orofacial clefts in the Eastern Mediterranean region: findings from global burden of disease study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Gender inequality may be associated with the burden of orofacial clefts (OFCs), particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). To investigate the OFCs' burden and its association with gender inequality in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR).

METHODS

Country-specific data on the OFCs' prevalence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease database by age and gender. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) was used to investigate the OFCs' trends. The association of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) with prevalence and DALY rates was determined using multiple linear regression. Human Development Index (HDI), Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) were also considered as potential confounders.

RESULTS

In 2019, the overall regional OFCs' prevalence and DALYs (per 100,000 person-years) were 93.84 and 9.68, respectively. During the 1990-2019 period, there was a decrease in prevalence (EAPC = -0.05%), demonstrating a consistent trend across genders. Moreover, within the same timeframe, DALYs also declined (EAPC = -2.10%), with a more pronounced reduction observed among females. Gender differences were observed in age-specific prevalence rates (p-value = 0.015). GII was associated with DALYs (βmale= -0.42, p-value = 0.1; βfemale = 0.48, p-value = 0.036) and prevalence (βmale= -1.86, p-value < 0.001, βfemale= -2.07, p-value < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a declining prevalence, the burden of OFCs remained notably significant in the EMR. Gender inequality is associated with the burden of OFCs in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Countries in the region should establish comprehensive public policies to mitigate gender inequalities in healthcare services available for OFCs.

The burden of cardiovascular diseases attributable to metabolic risk factors and its change from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis and prediction

Background

Metabolic disorders are the most important risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The purpose of this study was to systematically analyze and summarize the most recent data by age, sex, region, and time, and to forecast the future burden of diseases.

Methods

Data on the burden of CVDs associated with metabolic risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019; and then the burden of disease was assessed using the numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and analyzed for temporal changes, differences in age, region, sex, and socioeconomic aspects; finally, the burden of disease was predicted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the numbers of deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs attributed to metabolic risk factors increased by 59.3%, 51.0%, 104.6%, and 47.8%, respectively. The ASR decreased significantly. The burden of metabolic risk factor-associated CVDs was closely related to socioeconomic position and there were major geographical variations; additionally, men had a significantly greater disease burden than women, and the peak shifted later based on the age group. We predicted that the numbers of deaths and DALYs would reach 16.5 million and 324.8 million, respectively, by 2029.

Conclusions

The global burden of CVDs associated with metabolic risk factors is considerable and still rising, and more effort is needed to intervene in metabolic disorders.

Temporal trends in the burden of non-communicable diseases in countries with the highest malaria burden, 1990–2019: Evaluating the double burden of non-communicable and communicable diseases in epidemiological transition

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly increasing in sub-Saharan African countries, where 96% of global malaria deaths occur. This study aimed to investigate the disease burden of NCDs in countries with the current highest malaria mortality.

Methods

Data for this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (1990–2019). We selected the ten countries with malaria’s highest age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and identified and ranked the five NCDs with the highest ASMR in each country. Measures of the NCDs disease burden included ASMR, age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), years of life lost (YLL) and years lost due to a disability (YLD). The Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to examine the trends of the NCDs disease burden from 1990 to 2019.

Results

As of 2019, the ASMR of chronic liver disease, kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, hypertensive heart disease and stroke were higher than the global average. From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, type II diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease increased by 3.0%, 10.8%, 13.3%, and the age-standardised DALY rate increased by 3.7%, 27.6%, 6.3%, and the increases tended to be in younger populations.

Conclusion

The double burden of non-communicable and communicable diseases is crippling the health systems of many sub-Saharan African countries and is often neglected. The prevention, surveillance, and control of diseases require an integrated strategy, with governments and non-government organisations aligned and supported by the global initiative.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12992-022-00882-w.

Global burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter due to high systolic blood pressure from 1990 to 2019: estimates from the global burden of disease study 2019

Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) has progressed to be a public health concern, and high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) remains the leading risk factor for AF/AFL. This study estimated the HSBP attributable AF/AFL burden based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Numbers, age-standardized rates (ASR) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were analyzed by age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and locations. Gini coefficient was calculated to evaluate health inequality. Globally, HSBP-related AF/AFL caused 107 091 deaths and 3 337 876 DALYs in 2019, an increase of 142.5% and 105.9% from 1990, respectively. The corresponding mortality and DALYs ASR declined by 5.8% and 7.7%. High-income Asia Pacific experienced the greatest decrease in mortality and DALYs ASR, whereas the largest increase was observed in Andean Latin America. Almost half of the HSBP-related AF/AFL burden was carried by high and high-middle SDI regions, and it was experiencing a shift to lower SDI regions. A negative correlation was detected between EAPC and SDI. Females and elderly people tended to have a higher AF/AFL burden, whereas young adults (30-49 years old) experienced an annual increase in AF/AFL burden. The Gini index of DALYs rate decreased from 0.224 in 1990 to 0.183 in 2019. Despite improved inequality having been observed over the past decades, the HSBP-related AF/AFL burden varied across regions, sexes, and ages. Cost-effective preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic tools are required to be implemented in less developed regions.

The burden of alcoholic cardiomyopathy in China and different regions around the world

Background

Alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) remains a significant public health issue with a growing global burden. The burden of ACM in China and different regions remains poorly understood.

Methods

Data on ACM deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the corresponding global age-standardized death rate (ASDR), age-standardized DALY rate and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were analysed based on age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, different regions and in China from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019.

Results

Globally, the death rate and DALYs due to ACM were 71 723 and 2 441 108 in 2019, 33.06% and 38.79% increase from 1990, respectively. The corresponding ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate decreased with EAPC of -1.52 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = -2.39, -0.65) and -1.12 (95% UI = -2.14, -0.10). The high-middle SDI regions, especially Eastern Europe, showed the highest number of ACM-related deaths and DALYs. The ACM-related deaths and DALYs were 2545 and 87823 in China in 2019, 171.03% and 147.17% increase from 1990, respectively. Unlike the world level, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate also increased in China. The ACM burden is higher in men, and people with 50 to 69 years old accounted for the most.

Conclusions

ACM burden in China and across the world increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. The greatest burden was borne by the high-middle SDI regions, especially by men aged 50-69 years old. Geographically and gender-age tailored strategies were needed to prevent ACM.

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases attributable to hypertension in young adults from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Hypertension grows into a serious public health problem among young adults, linking to a set of life-threatening cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Young adults are not well represented in current knowledge about the CVDs burden attributable to hypertension.

METHODS

In this analysis of data from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) study 2019, we focus on young adults and provide the first comprehensive and comparative assessment of the hypertension attributable CVDs burden, in terms of its mortality and years of living with disability (YLD) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by location, sex, and development status.

RESULTS

Globally in 2019, the death and YLD numbers caused by hypertension-related CVDs were 640 239 and 2 717 474 in young adults, marking a 43.0 and 86.6% increase from 1990, respectively. The corresponding mortality rate dropped by 10.5%, whereas the YLD rate increased by 16.8% during the same period. V-shaped association between CVDs burden and social development status was observed. The largest burden and the most pronounced increase were borne by middle-income countries, while high-income countries had the lowest death/YLD rate with a quicker annual decline. Men largely outpaced women in hypertension attributable CVDs mortality. Ischemic heart disease and stroke were the leading cause for death and YLD burden, correspondingly.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension attributable CVDs burden in young adults has greatly increased from 1990 to 2019, with considerably spatiotemporal and sexual heterogeneity. The largest burden was borne by middle-income countries, especially by men. Establishment of geographically and sexually tailored strategies were needed to prevent hypertension-related CVDs in young adults.