Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan

Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea

South Korea's population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios-where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain-from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE.

Positive psychology as a strategy for promoting sustainable population policies

Demographic stability constitutes a paramount global environmental objective. Yet, decades of efforts, highlighting the perils of overpopulation, have failed to slow the rapid global population growth. In considering an alternative strategy, insights from the field of positive psychology are explored for their potential to inform future demographic policies. After briefly reviewing sustainable advocacy efforts, different theories behind individual fertility decisions are presented. Following, key components of prominent successful family planning interventions are analysed using a 'positive psychology' perspective. Three 'positive psychology' strategies are explored for their potential to inform sustainable population: a "direct" approach that emphasizes individual benefits rather than indirect gains through mitigation of damages; an emphasis on the convergence between the collective and individual benefits of two--child families; and application of behavioral change theories in demographic policies to better facilitate sustainable individual fertility decisions. The paper posits that a positive psychology conceptualization offers a promising way to re-think the design of demographic policies and frame sustainable population interventions.

Reconstructing the population dynamics of foreign residents in Japan to estimate the prevalence of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Among newly notified tuberculosis cases in Japan, both the number and the proportion of foreign-born cases have steadily increased over time. As Japan prepares to introduce pre-entry tuberculosis screening for foreign-born persons entering Japan, various epidemiological evidence is needed to evaluate its effectiveness, including the prevalence of tuberculosis among current foreign residents in Japan, by country of birth. Yet as of today, even the underlying population dynamics has yet to be quantified. The present study therefore aimed to firstly reconstruct the demographic prevalence of foreign residents by the length of stay in Japan and by country of birth, and secondly, to estimate the prevalence of infection from notification data among foreign residents in Japan. We employed the McKendrick partial differential equation model to reconstruct the dynamics among six Asian countries which account for 80% of foreign-born tuberculosis patients notified in Japan i.e. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nepal, Indonesia, and Myanmar. Compared with China and the Philippines, the recent remarkable increase in the number of residents who had arrived within 5 years from Myanmar and Vietnam was identified. Assuming that the risk of primary tuberculosis given infection is 5%, the estimated prevalence of infection ranged from 3.5% to 21.3%, and all the estimates were more than three times greater than the crude estimate that ignored the time since immigration. The proposed method may be used to further estimate the prevalence by age, sex and residential status, which could potentially provide critical evidence towards establishing policies to control tuberculosis among foreign-born persons in Japan, and also possibly among migrants globally.

Predicting the Epidemiological Dynamics of Lung Cancer in Japan

While the prevalence of smoking has steadily declined over time, the absolute numbers of lung cancer cases and deaths have continued to increase in Japan. We employed a simple mathematical model that describes the relationship between demographic dynamics and smoking prevalence to predict future epidemiological trends of lung cancer by age and sex. Never-smokers, smokers, and ex-smokers were assumed to experience different hazard of lung cancer, and the model was parameterized using data from 2014 and before, as learning data, and a future forecast was obtained from 2015 onwards. The maximum numbers of lung cancer cases and deaths in men will be 76,978 (95% confidence interval (CI): 76,630⁻77,253) and 63,284 (95% CI: 62,991⁻63507) in 2024, while those in women will be 42,838 (95% CI: 42,601⁻43,095) and 32,267 (95% CI: 32,063⁻32,460) in 2035 and 2036, respectively. Afterwards, the absolute numbers of cases and deaths are predicted to decrease monotonically. Our compartmental modeling approach is well suited to predicting lung cancer in Japan with dynamic ageing and drastic decline in smoking prevalence. The predicted burden is useful for anticipating demands for diagnosis, treatment, and care in the healthcare sector.