Challenges in modeling complexity of neglected tropical diseases: a review of dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in resource limited settings

Environmental Risk Factors for Visceral Leishmaniasis: An Analysis of Housing Types and Behavioral Factors in Baringo County, Kenya

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is endemic in Baringo County, Kenya, and contributes significantly to the burden of disease in the region. Housing structures and other environmental risk factors contribute to transmission dynamics, but these have not been specifically studied in Baringo. The aim of this study was to increase understanding of VL transmission in the region through determining relationships between VL infection, housing, and other environmental factors. Data collection occurred from February 1 to May 31, 2023 at Chemolingot Sub-County Hospital and patients' homesteads via questionnaires of primary VL patients being treated and VL follow-up patients who were still residing in the same house as when the infection occurred. Factors assessed were housing structures, proximity to vector breeding and resting sites, and prevention and control measure practices. A baseline assessment of housing types was conducted through direct ethnographic observation and used in the analysis. Forty-one patients were included in the study. A χ2 analysis and Fisher's test were used to determine association between VL infection and housing materials, where VL patient housing data were compared with the regional baseline assessment. Significant associations with VL infection were found between mud and stick walls (P <0.001); mud walls (P <0.001); mud, stick, and grass combination walls (P = 0.02); and stick and grass walls (P <0.001). Behavior comparison showed that most VL-protective behaviors were practiced by follow-up patients after infection. Results showed an increased need for VL prevention focusing on environmental factors.

A mathematical model of visceral leishmaniasis transmission and control: Impact of ITNs on VL prevention and elimination in the Indian subcontinent

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly, vector-borne, parasitic, neglected tropical disease, particularly prevalent on the Indian subcontinent. Sleeping under the long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) was considered an effective VL prevention and control measures, until KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India, did not show enough supporting evidence. In this paper, we adapt a biologically accurate, yet relatively simple compartmental ordinary differential equations (ODE) model of VL transmission and explicitly model the use of ITNs and their role in VL prevention and elimination. We also include a game-theoretic analysis in order to determine an optimal use of ITNs from the individuals' perspective. In agreement with the previous more detailed and complex model, we show that the ITNs coverage amongst the susceptible population has to be unrealistically high (over 96%) in order for VL to be eliminated. However, we also show that if the whole population, including symptomatic and asymptomatic VL cases adopt about 90% ITN usage, then VL can be eliminated. Our model also suggests that ITN usage should be accompanied with other interventions such as vector control.

The economic burden of visceral leishmaniasis and barriers to accessing healthcare in Tigray, North Ethiopia: A field based study

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important public health problem, which mainly affects the poor rural dwelling communities in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. However, little is known about the health and economic burdens of this disease in East Africa, including Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess the household level economic burden of VL among affected communities in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia.

METHODS

Between April and August 2020, a cross-sectional household survey was conducted on 96 patients who had been treated for VL within 12 months prior to the survey, in six districts of Tigray. Data on households' health seeking behavior, direct and indirect costs and coping strategies were collected using a structured questionnaire and the responses were analyzed using SPSS software.

RESULTS

Most (82%) of the patients surveyed were males and the majority (74%) of them were between 16 and 30 years of age. The education level of participants was very low: over 33% had not received any form of education; 48% of patients were farmers dependent on subsistence agriculture and about 32% were daily laborers. Just under half of household families (46%) resided in "poor houses" with structures made from entirely local materials. Forty-one percent of patients from the surveyed households had traveled 48 to 72 kilometers to reach VL treatment hospitals. The median total household cost for one VL episode was estimated to be US$ 214. This is equated to 18% of the mean total annual household income or 72.5% of annual per capita income of the study population. More than 80% of the households surveyed incurred catastrophic costs of VL, where this is defined as exceeding 10% of annual household income. The median delay between the onset of symptoms and arrival at a care provider hospital was 37 days; once the patient arrived at hospital, the median delay during diagnosis was 3 days. Direct and indirect costs represented 44% and 56% of the total costs incurred, respectively. To cope with VL treatment costs, 43% of the households used more than one coping strategy: 48% took out loans, 43% sold livestock and 31% of households mobilized cash savings.

CONCLUSIONS

VL in Tigray is concentrated among young males with low educational background and mostly engaged in subsistence economic activities. Despite the free diagnostic and treatment provisions that were available at public hospitals at the time of the study, our work shows that the household economic burden of the disease had significant impact among VL-affected communities in Tigray. Initiating community awareness towards prevention, early treatment seeking and decentralization of VL treatment centers are strongly recommended. In addition, we recommend efforts to reduce household treatment costs through transport and food provisions for patients (and their accompanying carers where possible) or through cash reimbursement for patients who complete treatment at public hospitals, in order to reduce the barriers to seeking treatment for this life-threatening disease.

Serum Levels of Vitamins and Trace Elements in Patients with Visceral Leishmaniasis: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a fatal disease prevalent in more than 70 countries, poses significant health challenges, particularly in poor communities with limited access to healthcare. Vitamins and trace elements play a crucial role in immune function and may influence susceptibility to VL. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the differences in serum vitamin and trace element levels in VL patients compared to healthy individuals. We conducted an extensive search of databases (PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar) to identify potentially eligible articles published from inception to June 2023. Data extraction and quality assessment were carried out by two reviewers independently. RevMan software (version 5.4) was used for analysis. Standardized mean difference (SMD) with a confidence interval (CI) of 95% was used to summarize the findings. Ten studies comprising 546 VL patients and 535 controls were included in our study. The findings revealed significantly reduced serum retinol levels in VL patients in comparison to controls (SMD: - 0.67; 95% CI: [- 1.05, - 0.28]; p = 0.0008). Serum zinc levels were also substantially lower in VL patients, regardless of controls recruited from endemic (SMD: - 2.65; 95% CI: [- 3.86, - 1.44]; p < 0.0001) or non-endemic regions (SMD: - 1.99; 95% CI: [- 3.02, - 0.96]; p < 0.0002). However, VL patients exhibited significantly increased serum copper levels compared to controls (SMD: 2.51; 95% CI: [0.70, 4.32]; p = 0.007). Patients with VL had lower serum levels of zinc and retinol and higher levels of copper, indicating a possible role of these micronutrients in influencing VL susceptibility and progression.

Advances in Leishmania Vaccines: Current Development and Future Prospects

Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by parasites of the genus Leishmania. As approved human vaccines are not available, treatment and prevention rely heavily on toxic chemotherapeutic agents, which face increasing resistance problems. The development of effective vaccines against human leishmaniasis is of utmost importance for the control of the disease. Strategies that have been considered for this purpose range from whole-killed and attenuated parasites to recombinant proteins and DNA vaccines. The ideal vaccine must be safe and effective, ensuring lasting immunity through a robust IL-12-driven Th1 adaptive immune response. Despite some success and years of effort, human vaccine trials have encountered difficulties in conferring durable protection against Leishmania, a problem that may be attributed to the parasite's antigenic diversity and the intricate nature of the host's immune response. The aim of this review is to provide a thorough overview of recent advances in Leishmania vaccine development, ranging from initial trials to recent achievements, such as the ChAd63-KH DNA vaccine, which underscores the potential for effective control of leishmaniasis through continued research in this field.

Diagnostic challenges in cutaneous leishmaniasis due to atypical Leishmania infantum: pathologists' insights from re-emergence zones

Background

Leishmaniasis, a parasitic infection affecting both humans and animals, is increasingly spreading across Mediterranean and European regions, largely driven by human migration and environmental changes. In countries like Türkiye and across Europe, which have seen large influxes of migrants, the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is rising, with cases now appearing in cities where the disease was previously undocumented. In these previously non-endemic areas, physicians unfamiliar with the characteristic lesions may misdiagnose CL, particularly in cases with only cutaneous manifestations. This study aims to evaluate the impact of re-emerging CL on the routine diagnostic practices of pathologists in Türkiye, by retrospectively reviewing cases.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of CL cases diagnosed between 2013 and 2022 at a single pathology center in Türkiye, covering multiple provinces. Twelve cases of CL were identified and analyzed based on clinical presentation, pre-diagnosis, histopathological findings, and molecular diagnostics. DNA extraction and PCR were performed on paraffin-embedded tissue samples to identify the Leishmania species involved.

Results

Out of the twelve CL cases reviewed, seven exhibited morphological findings strongly suggestive of CL (MFSS of CL), warranting further microbiological evaluation. All patients presented with non-healing skin lesions characterized by central ulceration, crater-like formations, or papulonodular lesions. Notably, CL was included in the clinical pre-diagnosis in only 58.3% of cases, while it was not considered in the remaining 41.7% of cases. Clinicians initially pre-diagnosed skin tumors in six cases (50%), four of which led to wide surgical excision. Histopathological examination in all cases revealed chronic or mixed (acute/chronic) inflammation, predominantly rich in histiocytes. To further investigate the role of Leishmania species in the pre-diagnosis, DNA extraction and PCR were performed on paraffin-embedded tissue samples, identifying L. infantum as the causative agent in 10 cases and L. major in two cases. Notably, L. infantum was the causative agent in all five cases initially misdiagnosed as skin tumors, which were also associated with a granulomatous type of chronic inflammation.

Rapid and label-free A2 peptide epitope decorated CoFe2O4-C60 nanocomposite-based electrochemical immunosensor for detecting Visceral Leishmaniasis

Diagnosis of Visceral Leishmaniasis is challenging due to the shared clinical features with malaria, typhoid, and tuberculosis. A CoFe2O4-C60 nanocomposite-based immunosensor decorated with a sensitive A2 peptide antigen was fabricated to detect anti-A2 antibodies for application in visceral leishmaniasis diagnosis. The flame-synthesised nanocomposite was characterised using Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction spectroscopy (XRD), Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), Raman spectroscopy and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) techniques. N terminated specific A2 peptide epitope antigen (NH2-QSVGPLSVGP-OH) was synthesised and characterised by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy (LC-MS). Using EDC/NHS, A2 peptide antigen (Apg) was immobilised on the CoFe2O4-C60-modified electrode. The performance of the immunosensor, Apg-CoFe2O4-C60NP/GCE, was evaluated by testing its ability to detect varying concentrations of anti-A2 antibody solution in PBS and spiked serum with 1 mM [Fe(CN)6]3-/4- in 0.01 M PBS (pH 7.4) as supporting electrolyte. using differential pulse voltammetry. The immunosensor showed excellent reproducibility and a linear range of 10-10-10-1 µg/mL, with an experimental detection limit of 30.34 fg/mL. These results suggest that the fabricated sensor has great potential as a tool for diagnosing visceral leishmaniasis.

Recent Advances in CRISPR/Cas9-Mediated Genome Editing in Leishmania Strains

BACKGROUND

Genome manipulation of Leishmania species and the creation of modified strains are widely employed strategies for various purposes, including gene function studies, the development of live attenuated vaccines, and the engineering of host cells for protein production.

OBJECTIVE

Despite the introduction of novel manipulation approaches like CRISPR/Cas9 technology with significant advancements in recent years, the development of a reliable protocol for efficiently and precisely altering the genes of Leishmania strains remains a challenging endeavor. Following the successful adaptation of the CRISPR/Cas9 system for higher eukaryotic cells, several research groups have endeavored to apply this system to manipulate the genome of Leishmania.

RESULTS

Despite the substantial differences between Leishmania and higher eukaryotes, the CRISPR/Cas9 system has been effectively tested and applied in Leishmania.  CONCLUSION: This comprehensive review summarizes all the CRISPR/Cas9 systems that have been employed in Leishmania, providing details on their methods and the expression systems for Cas9 and gRNA. The review also explores the various applications of the CRISPR system in Leishmania, including the deletion of multicopy gene families, the development of the Leishmania vaccine, complete gene deletions, investigations into chromosomal translocations, protein tagging, gene replacement, large-scale gene knockout, genome editing through cytosine base replacement, and its innovative use in the detection of Leishmania. In addition, the review offers an up-to-date overview of all double-strand break repair mechanisms in Leishmania.

Vaccine value profile for leishmaniasis

Leishmania infections are global, occurring in 98 countries and all World Health Organization (WHO) regions with 600 million to 1 billion people at risk of infection. Visceral leishmaniasis is associated with almost 20,000 reported deaths annually, with children under 5 years of age being at the greatest risk of mortality. Amongst WHO-recognised Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), leishmaniasis is one of the most important in terms of mortality and morbidity. With an increasing global burden of disease and a growing threat from climate change, urbanisation and drug resistance, there remains an imperative to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. New tools to understand correlates of protection and to assess vaccine efficacy are being developed to ease the transition into larger scale efficacy trials or provide alternate routes to licensure. Early indications suggest a diverse portfolio of manufacturers exists in endemic countries with an appetite to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. This Vaccine Value Profile (VVP) provides a high-level, comprehensive assessment of the currently available data to inform the potential public health, economic, and societal value of leishmaniasis vaccines. The leishmaniasis VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, public health groups, policy organizations, and non-profit organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the leishmaniasis VVP and have collectively described the state of knowledge and identified the current gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Feline leishmaniosis: hematological and biochemical analysis

One hundred and sixty-six cats from two animal shelters were subjected to enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), indirect immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT), conventional polymerase chain reaction (cPCR), quantitative PCR (qPCR) and parasitological tests (PA) for the diagnosis of Leishmania spp. Among them, 15% (25/166), 53.6% (89/166), 3.6% (06/166) and 1.8% (03/166) were positive by ELISA, IFAT, both PCRs and PA, respectively. The sequencing of ITS-1 PCR amplicons revealed a 100% match with Leishmania infantum. After the Leishmania spp. survey, 12 cats were selected and divided into two groups for clinical, hematological, and biochemical analysis: six L. infantum positive cats (G1) and six Leishmania spp. negative cats (G2). All the cats were negative for feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV). A statistical analysis indicated significantly low platelet counts and significant hyperproteinemia associated with hypoalbuminemia in positive cats (p<0.05). Our results suggest that in endemic areas, cats with clinical signs of feline leishmaniosis (such as skin lesions, weight loss and/or enlarged lymph nodes) and that exhibit hematological and biochemical changes, such as low platelet counts and hyperproteinemia with hypoalbuminemia, should be tested for Leishmania spp. infection.

Nasal mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) with necrotizing granulomatous inflammation inducing cytotoxic T-cell lymphoma in a male Yemeni patient

Leishmaniasis is a protozoal infection transmitted by sandfly vector; there are three main types of leishmaniasis: cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL), and visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Herein, we present a case of endonasal mucocutaneous leishmaniasis in a 34-year-old Yemeni patient who presented with disfiguring nasal swelling associated with fever, a swab from the lesion and direct microscopic examination proved to have mucocutaneous leishmaniasis; he was successfully treated with intravenous antimonial stibogluconate, 1 month after treatment biopsy from the lesion revealed cytotoxic T-cell lymphoma, the purpose is to alert the physicians and otolaryngologists to consider leishmaniasis in the differential diagnosis of nasal granulomas and also to highlight the importance of early diagnosis of cancer in survivors of cutaneous leishmaniasis, especially in areas where cutaneous leishmaniasis is still highly prevalent, as the chronic local inflammation may disfigure the face if not recognized early and adequately treated; also, early cancer diagnosis can prevent mortality

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices among HIV/Leishmaniasis Co-Infected Patients in Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a serious public health concern in the Indian state of Bihar, which has been exacerbated by an increasing HIV/AIDS incidence that has resulted in poor clinical outcomes. So far, there has been no investigation into the knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) of people who have been subjected to hospital-based supervision for VL or HIV/VL co-infection. This study assessed the KAP toward VL infection among 210 VL-infected patients (126 participants with VL and 84 participants with HIV/VL) using a pretested standard questionnaire. The findings are summarized descriptively and KAP scores are classified dichotomously (good/poor). Multivariable logistic regression and bivariate correlation were used in the analysis. The study showed that both VL-infected and co-infected patients exhibited similar deficits in KAP scores toward VL. The HIV/VL participants who had a personal or family history of VL were more likely to have appropriate awareness of and preventive practices toward VL. The independent predictors of attitude index in HIV/VL participants were education, VL family history, and marital status. There was a weak but significant positive correlation between knowledge and practice (rs = 0.321, p<0.001), and attitude and practice (rs = 0.294, p<0.001), while knowledge was strongly correlated with attitude (rs = 0.634, p<0.001). Based on the study findings, it is recommended that treatment programs in Bihar should concentrate on strengthening KAP among VL and HIV/VL co-infected patients to prevent reinfection-related complications. Behavior change communication intervention is ideal for tackling this problem. This proposal entails building a comprehensive public health program in endemic regions.

Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines

Around the world, disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis, modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper, we document how mathematical modeling contributed to guiding the trajectory of pandemic policies in the Philippines. We present the mathematical specifications of the FASSSTER COVID-19 compartmental model at the core of the FASSSTER platform, the scenario-based disease modeling and analytics toolkit used in the Philippines. We trace how evolving epidemiological analysis at the national, regional, and provincial levels guided government actions; and conversely, how emergent policy questions prompted subsequent model development and analysis. At various stages of the pandemic, simulated outputs of the FASSSTER model strongly correlated with empirically observed case trajectories (r=94%-99%, p<.001). Model simulations were subsequently utilized to predict the outcomes of proposed interventions, including the calibration of community quarantine levels alongside improvements to healthcare system capacity. This study shows how the FASSSTER model enabled the implementation of a phased approach toward gradually expanding economic activity while limiting the spread of COVID-19. This work points to the importance of locally contextualized, flexible, and responsive mathematical modeling, as applied to pandemic intelligence and for data-driven policy-making in general.

Carboxymethyl chitosan modified lipid nanoformulations as a highly efficacious and biocompatible oral anti-leishmanial drug carrier system

Herein, carboxymethyl chitosan (CMC) grafted lipid nanoformulations were facilely prepared by thin-film hydration method as a highly efficient biocompatible anti-leishmanial carrier encapsulating amphotericin B (AmB). Nanoformulations were characterized for their physicochemical characteristics wherein TEM analysis confirmed the spherical structure, whereas FTIR analysis revealed the conjugation of CMC onto nanoformulations and confirmed the free state of AmB. Furthermore, the wettability study confirmed the presence of CMC on the surface of nanoformulations attributed to the enhanced hydrophilicity. Surface hydrophilicity additionally contributes towards consistent mucin retention ability for up to 6 h, superior mucoadhesiveness, and hence enhanced bioavailability. The proposed nanoformulations with high encapsulation and drug loading properties displayed controlled drug release in the physiological microenvironment. In vitro, antileishmanial results showed an astounding 97% inhibition in amastigote growth. Additionally, in vivo studies showed that treatment with nanoformulations significantly reduced the liver parasitic burden (93.5%) without causing any toxicity when given orally.

Gingival inflammation and hematological parameters in children with visceral leishmaniasis: A cross-sectional study

AIMS

This cross-sectional study aimed to assess gingival inflammation in 67 children aged 1-8 years (mean age 3.07) with visceral leishmaniasis (VL) at the time of hospitalization (D1) and 7 days after the first interview (D7) and compare the main hematological changes between the two time points.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The biofilm index was verified at D1 and D7 using the Simplified Oral Hygiene Index (OHI-S) and the gingival inflammation index based on the gingival index (GI), along with hematological parameters. The mean OHI-S was 2.35 ± 0.93 at D1 and 1.47 ± 0.75 at D7. The mean GI was 0.56 ± 0.59 at D1 and 0.11 ± 0.32 at D7. The variable OHI-S at D1 could predict GI at D1, as an increase in the OHI-S value by one unit was associated with an increase in the GI D1 value by 0.36 units (p < .05). Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that none of the hematological variables were predictive of gingival inflammation at D1 and D7 (p > .05).

CONCLUSION

Children with VL had poor oral hygiene on the first day of hospitalization. Clinically, the oral hygiene status progressed from poor at D1 to regular at D7. After 7 days the gingival bleeding scores also reduces.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Vulnerabilities to and the Socioeconomic and Psychosocial Impacts of the Leishmaniases: A Review

The leishmaniases are a group of four vector-borne neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with 1.6 billion people in some 100 countries at risk. They occur in certain eco-epidemiological foci that reflect manipulation by human activities, such as migration, urbanization and deforestation, of which poverty, conflict and climate change are key drivers. Given their synergistic impacts, risk factors and the vulnerabilities of poor populations and the launch of a new 2030 roadmap for NTDs in the context of the global sustainability agenda, it is warranted to update the state of knowledge of the leishmaniases and their effects. Using existing literature, we review socioeconomic and psychosocial impacts of leishmaniasis within a framework of risk factors and vulnerabilities to help inform policy interventions. Studies show that poverty is an overarching primary risk factor. Low-income status fosters inadequate housing, malnutrition and lack of sanitation, which create and exacerbate complexities in access to care and treatment outcomes as well as education and awareness. The co-occurrence of the leishmaniases with malnutrition and HIV infection further complicate diagnosis and treatment, leading to poor diagnostic outcomes and therapeutic response. Even with free treatment, households may suffer catastrophic health expenditure from direct and indirect medical costs, which compounds existing financial strain in low-income communities for households and healthcare systems. The dermatological presentations of the leishmaniases may result in long-term severe disfigurement, leading to stigmatization, reduced quality of life, discrimination and mental health issues. A substantial amount of recent literature points to the vulnerability pathways and burden of leishmaniasis on women, in particular, who disproportionately suffer from these impacts. These emerging foci demonstrate a need for continued international efforts to address key risk factors and population vulnerabilities if leishmaniasis control, and ultimately elimination, is to be achieved by 2030.

Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease caused by a parasite Leishmania donovani and spread by female sand flies Phlebotomus argentipes. There is conflicting evidence regarding the role of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) on the prevention of VL. Numerous studies demonstrated the effectiveness of ITNs. However, KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India did not support those findings. The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into the situation by mathematical modelling. We expand a mathematical model of VL transmission based on the KalaNet trial and incorporate the use of ITNs explicitly into the model. One of the major contributions of this work is that we calibrate the model based on the available epidemiological data, generally independent of the KalaNet trial. We validate the model on data collected during the KalaNet trial. We conclude that in order to eliminate VL, the ITN usage would have to stay above 96%. This is higher than the 91% ITNs use at the end of the trial which may explain why the trial did not show a positive effect from ITNs. At the same time, our model indicates that asymptomatic individuals play a crucial role in VL transmission.

Complexity and critical thresholds in the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis

We study a general multi-host model of visceral leishmaniasis including both humans and animals, and where host and vector characteristics are captured via host competence along with vector biting preference. Additionally, the model accounts for spatial heterogeneity in human population and heterogeneity in biting behaviour of sandflies. We then use parameters for visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent as an example and demonstrate that the model exhibits backward bifurcation, i.e. it has a human infection and a sandfly population threshold, characterized by a bi-stable region. These thresholds shift as a function of host competence, host population size, vector feeding preference, spatial heterogeneity, biting heterogeneity and control efforts. In particular, if control is applied through human treatment a new and lower human infection threshold is created, making elimination difficult to achieve, before eventually the human infection threshold no longer exists, making it impossible to control the disease by only reducing the infection levels below a certain threshold. A better strategy would be to reduce the human infection below a certain threshold potentially by early diagnosis, control animal population levels and keep the vector population under check. Spatial heterogeneity in human populations lowers the overall thresholds as a result of weak migration between patches.

Data scarcity and ecological complexity: the cutaneous leishmaniasis dynamics in Ecuador

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by species of Phlebotominae sand flies. CL is responsible for more than 1000 reported cases per year in Ecuador. Vector collection studies in Ecuador suggest that there is a strong association between the ecological diversity of an ecosystem, the presence of potential alternative or reservoir hosts and the abundance of sand fly species. Data collected from a coastal community in Ecuador showed that Leishmania parasites may be circulating in diverse hosts, including mammalian and potentially avian species, and these hosts may serve as potential hosts for the parasite. There has been limited reporting of CL cases in Ecuador because the disease is non-fatal and its surveillance system is passive. Hence, the actual incidence of CL is unknown. In this study, an epidemic model was developed and analysed to understand the complexity of CL transmission dynamics with potential non-human hosts in the coastal ecosystem and to estimate critical epidemiological quantities for Ecuador. The model is fitted to the 2010 CL outbreak in the town of Valle Hermoso in the Santo Domingo de los Tsachilas province of Ecuador and parameters such as CL transmission rates in different types of hosts (primary and alternative), and levels of case reporting in the town are estimated. The results suggest that the current surveillance in this region fails to capture 38% (with 95% CI (29%, 47%)) of the actual number of cases under the assumption that alternative hosts are dead-end hosts and that the mean CL reproduction number in the town is 3.9. This means that on the average 3.9 new human CL cases were generated by a single infectious human in the town during the initial period of the 2010 outbreak. Moreover, major outbreaks of CL in Ecuador in coastal settings are unavoidable until reporting through the surveillance system is improved and alternative hosts are managed properly. The estimated infection transmission probabilities from alternative hosts to sand flies, and sand flies to alternative hosts are 27% and 32%, respectively. The analysis highlights that vector control and alternative host management are two effective programmes for Ecuador but need to be implemented concurrently to avoid future major outbreaks.

Approximation methods for analyzing multiscale stochastic vector-borne epidemic models

Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of diseases. This problem further becomes intense when complexity of diseases increases as in the case of vector-borne diseases (VBD). The VBDs are human illnesses caused by pathogens transmitted among humans by intermediate species, which are primarily arthropods. In this study, a stochastic VBD model is developed and novel mathematical methods are described and evaluated to systematically analyze the model and understand its complex dynamics. The VBD model incorporates some relevant features of the VBD transmission process including demographical, ecological and social mechanisms, and different host and vector dynamic scales. The analysis is based on dimensional reductions and model simplifications via scaling limit theorems. The results suggest that the dynamics of the stochastic VBD depends on a threshold quantity R₀, the initial size of infectives, and the type of scaling in terms of host population size. The quantity R₀ for deterministic counterpart of the model is interpreted as a threshold condition for infection persistence as is mentioned in the literature for many infectious disease models. Different scalings yield different approximations of the model, and in particular, if vectors have much faster dynamics, the effect of the vector dynamics on the host population averages out, which largely reduces the dimension of the model. Specific scenarios are also studied using simulations for some fixed sets of parameters to draw conclusions on dynamics.

Exploitation of Mangrove Endophytic Fungi for Infectious Disease Drug Discovery

There is an acute need for new and effective agents to treat infectious diseases. We conducted a screening program to assess the potential of mangrove-derived endophytic fungi as a source of new antibiotics. Fungi cultured in the presence and absence of small molecule epigenetic modulators were screened against Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the ESKAPE panel of bacterial pathogens, as well as two eukaryotic infective agents, Leishmania donovani and Naegleria fowleri. By comparison of bioactivity data among treatments and targets, trends became evident, such as the result that more than 60% of active extracts were revealed to be selective to a single target. Validating the technique of using small molecules to dysregulate secondary metabolite production pathways, nearly half (44%) of those fungi producing active extracts only did so following histone deacetylase inhibitory (HDACi) or DNA methyltransferase inhibitory (DNMTi) treatment.

High-through identification of T cell-specific phage-exposed mimotopes using PBMCs from tegumentary leishmaniasis patients and their use as vaccine candidates against Leishmania amazonensis infection

In the current study, phage-exposed mimotopes as targets against tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL) were selected by means of bio-panning cycles employing sera of TL patients and healthy subjects, besides the immune stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) collected from untreated and treated TL patients and healthy subjects. The clones were evaluated regarding their specific interferon-γ (IFN-γ) and interleukin-4 (IL-4) production in the in vitro cultures, and selectivity and specificity values were calculated, and those presenting the best results were selected for the in vivo experiments. Two clones, namely A4 and A8, were identified and used in immunization protocols from BALB/c mice to protect against Leishmania amazonensis infection. Results showed a polarized Th1 response generated after vaccination, being based on significantly higher levels of IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-12, tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF); which were associated with lower production of specific IL-4, IL-10 and immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) antibodies. Vaccinated mice presented significant reductions in the parasite load in the infected tissue and distinct organs, when compared with controls. In conclusion, we presented a strategy to identify new mimotopes able to induce Th1 response in PBMCs from TL patients and healthy subjects, and that were successfully used to protect against L. amazonensis infection.

Human Kinetoplastid Protozoan Infections: Where Are We Going Next?

Kinetoplastida trypanosomatidae microorganisms are protozoan parasites exhibiting a developmental stage in the gut of insect vectors and tissues of vertebrate hosts. During the vertebrate infective stages, these parasites alter the differential expression of virulence genes, modifying their biological and antigenic properties in order to subvert the host protective immune responses and establish a persistent infection. One of the hallmarks of kinetoplastid parasites is their evasion mechanisms from host immunity, leading to disease chronification. The diseases caused by kinetoplastid parasites are neglected by the global expenditures in research and development, affecting millions of individuals in the low and middle-income countries located mainly in the tropical and subtropical regions. However, investments made by public and private initiatives have over the past decade leveraged important lines of intervention that if well-integrated to health care programs will likely accelerate disease control initiatives. This review summarizes recent advances in public health care principles, including new drug discoveries and their rational use with chemotherapeutic vaccines, and the implementation of control efforts to spatially mapping the kinetoplastid infections through monitoring of infected individuals in epidemic areas. These approaches should bring us the means to track genetic variation of parasites and drug resistance, integrating this knowledge into effective stewardship programs to prevent vector-borne kinetoplastid infections in areas at risk of disease spreading.

A Comparative Assessment of Epidemiologically Different Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Outbreaks in Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia: An Estimation of the Reproduction Number via a Mathematical Model

Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the Leishmania parasite and transmitted by the Phlebotominae subfamily of sandflies, which infects humans and other mammals. Clinical manifestations of the disease include cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) with a majority (more than three-quarters) of worldwide cases being CL. There are a number of risk factors for CL, such as the presence of multiple reservoirs, the movement of individuals, inequality, and social determinants of health. However, studies related to the role of these factors in the dynamics of CL have been limited. In this work, we (i) develop and analyze a vector-borne epidemic model to study the dynamics of CL in two ecologically distinct CL-affected regions—Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia; (ii) derived three different methods for the estimation of model parameters by reducing the dimension of the systems; (iii) estimated reproduction numbers for the 2010 outbreak in Madrid and the 2016 outbreak in Tolima; and (iv) compared the transmission potential of the two economically-different regions and provided different epidemiological metrics that can be derived (and used for evaluating an outbreak), once R₀ is known and additional data are available. On average, Spain has reported only a few hundred CL cases annually, but in the course of the outbreak during 2009–2012, a much higher number of cases than expected were reported and that too in the single city of Madrid. Cases in humans were accompanied by sharp increase in infections among domestic dogs, the natural reservoir of CL. On the other hand, CL has reemerged in Colombia primarily during the last decade, because of the frequent movement of military personnel to domestic regions from forested areas, where they have increased exposure to vectors. In 2016, Tolima saw an unexpectedly high number of cases leading to two successive outbreaks. On comparing, we estimated reproduction number of the Madrid outbreak to be 3.1 (with range of 2.8–3.9), which was much higher than reproduction number estimates of the Tolima first outbreak 1.2 (with range of 1.1–1.3), and the estimate for the second outbreak in Tolima of 1.019 (with range of 1.018–1.021). This suggests that the epidemic outbreak in Madrid was much more severe than the Tolima outbreak, even though Madrid was economically better-off compared to Tolima. It indicates a potential relationship between urban development and increasing health disparities.