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Tegegne HA, Freeth FT, Bogaardt C, Taylor E, Reinhardt J, Collineau L, Prada JM, Hénaux V. Implementation of One Health surveillance systems: Opportunities and challenges - lessons learned from the OH-EpiCap application. One Health 2024; 18:100704. [PMID: 38496337 PMCID: PMC10940803 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024] Open
Abstract
As the complexity of health systems has increased over time, there is an urgent need for developing multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary collaborations within the domain of One Health (OH). Despite the efforts to promote collaboration in health surveillance and overcome professional silos, implementing OH surveillance systems in practice remains challenging for multiple reasons. In this study, we describe the lessons learned from the evaluation of OH surveillance using OH-EpiCap (an online evaluation tool for One Health epidemiological surveillance capacities and capabilities), the challenges identified with the implementation of OH surveillance, and the main barriers that contribute to its sub-optimal functioning, as well as possible solutions to address them. We conducted eleven case studies targeting the multi-sectoral surveillance systems for antimicrobial resistance in Portugal and France, Salmonella in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, Listeria in The Netherlands, Finland and Norway, Campylobacter in Norway and Sweden, and psittacosis in Denmark. These evaluations facilitated the identification of common strengths and weaknesses, focusing on the organization and functioning of existing collaborations and their impacts on the surveillance system. Lack of operational and shared leadership, adherence to FAIR data principles, sharing of techniques, and harmonized indicators led to poor organization and sub-optimal functioning of OH surveillance systems. In the majority of studied systems, the effectiveness, operational costs, behavioral changes, and population health outcomes brought by the OH surveillance over traditional surveillance (i.e. compartmentalized into sectors) have not been evaluated. To this end, the establishment of a formal governance body with representatives from each sector could assist in overcoming long-standing barriers. Moreover, demonstrating the impacts of OH-ness of surveillance may facilitate the implementation of OH surveillance systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henok Ayalew Tegegne
- University of Lyon - ANSES, Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, 69007 Lyon, France
| | - Frederick T.A. Freeth
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Guildford, GU2 7XH Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Carlijn Bogaardt
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Guildford, GU2 7XH Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Emma Taylor
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Guildford, GU2 7XH Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Johana Reinhardt
- ANSES, Risk Assessment Department, Animal Health, Welfare, Feed and Vectors Risk Assessment Unit, 94700 Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Lucie Collineau
- University of Lyon - ANSES, Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, 69007 Lyon, France
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Guildford, GU2 7XH Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Viviane Hénaux
- University of Lyon - ANSES, Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, 69007 Lyon, France
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Touloupou P, Fronterre C, Cano J, Prada JM, Smith M, Kontoroupis P, Brown P, Rivera RC, de Vlas SJ, Gunawardena S, Irvine MA, Njenga SM, Reimer L, Seife F, Sharma S, Michael E, Stolk WA, Pulan R, Spencer SEF, Hollingsworth TD. An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale. Clin Infect Dis 2024; 78:S108-S116. [PMID: 38662704 PMCID: PMC11045016 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae071] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. METHODS We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. RESULTS Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jorge Cano
- Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN), WHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Morgan Smith
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
| | | | - Paul Brown
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Rocio Caja Rivera
- Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Michael A Irvine
- Data and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Sammy M Njenga
- Eastern and Southern Africa Centre of International Parasite Control, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Lisa Reimer
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Fikre Seife
- Disease Prevention and Control Directorate, Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Swarnali Sharma
- Department of Mathematics, Vijaygarh Jyotish Ray College, Kolkata, India
| | - Edwin Michael
- Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA
| | - Wilma A Stolk
- Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rachel Pulan
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Simon E F Spencer
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Prada JM, Touloupou P, Kebede B, Giorgi E, Sime H, Smith M, Kontoroupis P, Brown P, Cano J, Farkas H, Irvine M, Reimer L, Caja Rivera R, de Vlas SJ, Michael E, Stolk WA, Pulan R, Spencer SEF, Hollingsworth TD, Seife F. Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy. Clin Infect Dis 2024; 78:S117-S125. [PMID: 38662702 PMCID: PMC11045027 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. METHODS Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. RESULTS Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. CONCLUSIONS The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joaquin M Prada
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Biruck Kebede
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709, USA
| | | | - Heven Sime
- Malaria and Neglected Tropical Diseases Research Team, Bacterial, Parasitic and Zoonotic Disease Research Directorate, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Morgan Smith
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
| | | | - Paul Brown
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Jorge Cano
- Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN), WHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Hajnal Farkas
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Mike Irvine
- Faculty of Science, BC Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Lisa Reimer
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Rocio Caja Rivera
- College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Edwin Michael
- College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
| | - Wilma A Stolk
- Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rachel Pulan
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Simon E F Spencer
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Fikre Seife
- Disease Prevention and Control Directorate, Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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Rotejanaprasert C, Chuaicharoen P, Prada JM, Thantithaveewat T, Adisakwattana P, Pan-ngum W. Correction: 'Evaluation of Kato-Katz and multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction performance for clinical helminth infections in Thailand using a latent class analysis' (2023), by Rotejanaprasert et al.. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230510. [PMID: 38310942 PMCID: PMC10838636 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0510] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 02/06/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Chawarat Rotejanaprasert
- Department of Tropical Hygiene, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | | | - Poom Adisakwattana
- Department of Helminthology, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Wirichada Pan-ngum
- Department of Tropical Hygiene, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
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Healy SR, Morgan ER, Prada JM, Karadjian G, Chevillot A, Betson M. First use of tissue exudate serology to identify Toxocara spp. infection in food animals. Int J Parasitol 2024:S0020-7519(24)00048-1. [PMID: 38458482 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpara.2024.02.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Revised: 01/24/2024] [Accepted: 02/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/10/2024]
Abstract
Toxocara canis and Toxocara cati are globally distributed, zoonotic roundworm parasites. Human infection can have serious clinical consequences including blindness and brain disorders. In addition to ingesting environmental eggs, humans can become infected by eating infective larvae in raw or undercooked meat products. To date, no studies have assessed the prevalence of Toxocara spp. larvae in meat from animals consumed as food in the UK or assessed tissue exudates for the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies. This study aimed to assess the potential risk to consumers eating meat products from animals infected with Toxocara spp. Tissue samples were obtained from 155 different food producing animals in the south, southwest and east of England, UK. Tissue samples (n = 226), either muscle or liver, were processed by artificial digestion followed by microscopic sediment evaluation for Toxocara spp. larvae, and tissue exudate samples (n = 141) were tested for the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies using a commercial ELISA kit. A logistic regression model was used to compare anti-Toxocara antibody prevalence by host species, tissue type and source. While no larvae were found by microscopic examination after tissue digestion, the overall prevalence of anti-Toxocara antibodies in tissue exudates was 27.7%. By species, 35.3% of cattle (n = 34), 15.0% of sheep (n = 60), 54.6% of goats (n = 11) and 61.1% of pigs (n = 18) had anti-Toxocara antibodies. Logistic regression analysis found pigs were more likely to be positive for anti-Toxocara antibodies (odds ration (OR) = 2.89, P = 0.0786) compared with the other species sampled but only at a 10% significance level. The high prevalence of anti-Toxocara antibodies in tissue exudates suggests that exposure of food animals to this parasite is common in England. Tissue exudate serology on meat products within the human food chain could be applied in support of food safety and to identify practices that increase risks of foodborne transmission of zoonotic toxocariasis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara R Healy
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Eric R Morgan
- Queen's University, Institute for Global Food Security, Biological Sciences Building, 19 Chlorine Gardens, BT9 5DL Belfast, UK
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Grégory Karadjian
- Anses, Laboratoire de Santé Animale, INRAE, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire d'Alfort, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
| | - Aurélie Chevillot
- Anses, Laboratoire de Santé Animale, INRAE, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire d'Alfort, Maisons-Alfort 94700, France
| | - Martha Betson
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL, UK.
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Benedetti G, Boisen N, Prada JM. Editorial: One Health surveillance in practice: experiences of integration among human health, animal health, environmental health, and food safety sectors. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1384988. [PMID: 38496385 PMCID: PMC10940499 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1384988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2024] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Guido Benedetti
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nadia Boisen
- Department of Bacteria, Parasites and Fungi, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
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7
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Borhani M, Mohammadi MA, Entezami M, Baneshi MR, Nasibi S, Prada JM, Fasihi Harandi M. Reinfection of farm dogs following praziquantel treatment in an endemic region of cystic echinococcosis in southeastern Iran. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0011939. [PMID: 38536863 PMCID: PMC11020379 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Revised: 04/16/2024] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 04/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Cystic Echinococcosis (CE) as a prevalent tapeworm infection of human and herbivorous animals worldwide, is caused by accidental ingestion of Echinococcus granulosus eggs excreted from infected dogs. CE is endemic in the Middle East and North Africa, and is considered as an important parasitic zoonosis in Iran. It is transmitted between dogs as the primary definitive host and different livestock species as the intermediate hosts. One of the most important measures for CE control is dog deworming with praziquantel. Due to the frequent reinfection of dogs, intensive deworming campaigns are critical for breaking CE transmission. Dog reinfection rate could be used as an indicator of the intensity of local CE transmission in endemic areas. However, our knowledge on the extent of reinfection in the endemic regions is poor. The purpose of the present study was to determine E. granulosus reinfection rate after praziquantel administration in a population of owned dogs in Kerman, Iran. A cohort of 150 owned dogs was recruited, with stool samples collected before praziquantel administration as a single oral dose of 5 mg/kg. The re-samplings of the owned dogs were performed at 2, 5 and 12 months following initial praziquantel administration. Stool samples were examined microscopically using Willis flotation method. Genomic DNA was extracted, and E. granulosus sensu lato-specific primers were used to PCR-amplify a 133-bp fragment of a repeat unit of the parasite genome. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier method to calculate cumulative survival rates, which is used here to capture reinfection dynamics, and monthly incidence of infection, capturing also the spatial distribution of disease risk. Results of survival analysis showed 8, 12 and 17% total reinfection rates in 2, 5 and 12 months following initial praziquantel administration, respectively, indicating that 92, 88 and 83% of the dogs had no detectable infection in that same time periods. The monthly incidence of reinfection in total owned dog population was estimated at 1.5% (95% CI 1.0-2.1). The results showed that the prevalence of echinococcosis in owned dogs, using copro-PCR assay was 42.6%. However, using conventional microscopy, 8% of fecal samples were positive for taeniid eggs. Our results suggest that regular treatment of the dog population with praziquantel every 60 days is ideal, however the frequency of dog dosing faces major logistics and cost challenges, threatening the sustainability of control programs. Understanding the nature and extent of dog reinfection in the endemic areas is essential for successful implementation of control programs and understanding patterns of CE transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehdi Borhani
- Research Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
- State Key Laboratory for Zoonotic Diseases, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Ministry of Education, Institute of Zoonosis, College of Veterinary Medicine, Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Mohammad Ali Mohammadi
- Research Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Mahbod Entezami
- School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Mohammad Reza Baneshi
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland Faculty of Medicine, Herston, Australia
- Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Saeid Nasibi
- Research Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Majid Fasihi Harandi
- Research Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
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Rotejanaprasert C, Chuaicharoen P, Prada JM, Thantithaveewat T, Adisakwattana P, Pan-ngum W. Evaluation of Kato-Katz and multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction performance for clinical helminth infections in Thailand using a latent class analysis. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220281. [PMID: 37598708 PMCID: PMC10440171 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/27/2023] [Indexed: 08/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Using an appropriate diagnostic tool is essential to soil-transmitted helminth control and elimination efforts. Kato-Katz (KK) is the most commonly used diagnostic, but recently other tools, such as real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (multiplex qPCR), are starting to be employed more. Here, we evaluated the performance of these two diagnostic tools for five helminth species in Thailand. In the absence of a gold standard, diagnostic performance can be evaluated using latent class analysis. Our results suggest that in moderate to high prevalence settings above 2% multiplex qPCR could be more sensitive than KK, this was particularly apparent for Opisthorchis viverrini in the northeastern provinces. However, for low prevalence, both diagnostics suffered from low sensitivity. Specificity of both diagnostics was estimated to be high (above 70%) across all settings. For some specific helminth infection such as O. viverrini, multiplex qPCR is still a preferable choice of diagnostic test. KK performed equally well in detecting Ascaris lumbricoides and Taenia solium when the prevalence is moderate to high (above 2%). Neither test performed well when the prevalence of infection is low (below 2%), and certainly in the case for hookworm and Trichuris trichiura. Combination of two or more diagnostic tests can improve the performance although the cost would be high. Development of new methods for helminth surveillance at the pre-elimination phase is therefore very important. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chawarat Rotejanaprasert
- Department of Tropical Hygiene, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | | | - Poom Adisakwattana
- Department of Helminthology, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Wirichada Pan-ngum
- Department of Tropical Hygiene, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
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Kabbas-Piñango E, Arinaitwe M, van Dam GJ, Moses A, Namukuta A, Nankasi AB, Mwima NK, Besigye F, Prada JM, Lamberton PHL. Reproducibility matters: intra- and inter-sample variation of the point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test in two Schistosoma mansoni endemic areas in Uganda. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220275. [PMID: 37598698 PMCID: PMC10440168 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0275] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Over 240 million people are infected with schistosomiasis. Detecting Schistosoma mansoni eggs in stool using Kato-Katz thick smears (Kato-Katzs) is highly specific but lacks sensitivity. The urine-based point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA) has higher sensitivity, but issues include specificity, discrepancy between batches and interpretation of trace results. A semi-quantitative G-score and latent class analyses making no assumptions about trace readings have helped address some of these issues. However, intra-sample and inter-sample variation remains unknown for POC-CCAs. We collected 3 days of stool and urine from 349 and 621 participants, from high- and moderate-endemicity areas, respectively. We performed duplicate Kato-Katzs and one POC-CCA per sample. In the high-endemicity community, we also performed three POC-CCA technical replicates on one urine sample per participant. Latent class analysis was performed to estimate the relative contribution of intra- (test technical reproducibility) and inter-sample (day-to-day) variation on sensitivity and specificity. Within-sample variation for Kato-Katzs was higher than between-sample, with the opposite true for POC-CCAs. A POC-CCA G3 threshold most accurately assesses individual infections. However, to reach the WHO target product profile of the required 95% specificity for prevalence and monitoring and evaluation, a threshold of G4 is needed, but at the cost of reducing sensitivity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elías Kabbas-Piñango
- School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Moses Arinaitwe
- Vector Borne and NTD Control Division, Bilharzia and Worm Control Program Uganda, Ministry of Health, PO Box 1661, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Govert J. van Dam
- Department of Parasitology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, 2333 ZA, The Netherlands
| | - Adriko Moses
- Vector Borne and NTD Control Division, Bilharzia and Worm Control Program Uganda, Ministry of Health, PO Box 1661, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Annet Namukuta
- Vector Borne and NTD Control Division, Bilharzia and Worm Control Program Uganda, Ministry of Health, PO Box 1661, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Andrina Barungi Nankasi
- Vector Borne and NTD Control Division, Bilharzia and Worm Control Program Uganda, Ministry of Health, PO Box 1661, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Nicholas Khayinja Mwima
- Vector Borne and NTD Control Division, Bilharzia and Worm Control Program Uganda, Ministry of Health, PO Box 1661, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Fred Besigye
- Vector Borne and NTD Control Division, Bilharzia and Worm Control Program Uganda, Ministry of Health, PO Box 1661, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health & Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK
| | - Poppy H. L. Lamberton
- School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
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Borlase A, Prada JM, Crellen T. Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220279. [PMID: 37598702 PMCID: PMC10440174 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 08/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Borlase
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK
| | - Thomas Crellen
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
- School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, Graham Kerr Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Sir Graeme Davies Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8TA, UK
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11
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Clark J, Davis EL, Prada JM, Gass K, Krentel A, Hollingsworth TD. How correlations between treatment access and surveillance inclusion impact neglected tropical disease monitoring and evaluation-A simulated study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011582. [PMID: 37672518 PMCID: PMC10506705 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2022] [Revised: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 08/09/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) largely impact marginalised communities living in tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration is the leading intervention method for five NTDs; however, it is known that there is lack of access to treatment for some populations and demographic groups. It is also likely that those individuals without access to treatment are excluded from surveillance. It is important to consider the impacts of this on the overall success, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of intervention programmes. We use a detailed individual-based model of the infection dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to investigate the impact of excluded, untreated, and therefore unobserved groups on the true versus observed infection dynamics and subsequent intervention success. We simulate surveillance in four groups-the whole population eligible to receive treatment, the whole eligible population with access to treatment, the TAS focus of six- and seven-year-olds, and finally in >20-year-olds. We show that the surveillance group under observation has a significant impact on perceived dynamics. Exclusion to treatment and surveillance negatively impacts the probability of reaching public health goals, though in populations that do reach these goals there are no signals to indicate excluded groups. Increasingly restricted surveillance groups over-estimate the efficacy of MDA. The presence of non-treated groups cannot be inferred when surveillance is only occurring in the group receiving treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Clark
- School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
- Big Data Institute, Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
| | - Emma L. Davis
- Big Data Institute, Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, England
| | - Katherine Gass
- Neglected Tropical Diseases Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Alison Krentel
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
- Bruyère Research Institute, Ottawa, Canada
| | - T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
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Bosco A, Ciuca L, Maurelli MP, Vitiello P, Cringoli G, Prada JM, Rinaldi L. Comparison of Mini-FLOTAC, Flukefinder and sedimentation techniques for detection and quantification of Fasciola hepatica and Calicophoron daubneyi eggs using spiked and naturally infected bovine faecal samples. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:260. [PMID: 37533114 PMCID: PMC10399002 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05890-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Fasciolosis (Fasciola hepatica) and paramphistomosis (Calicophoron daubneyi) are two important infections of livestock. Calicophoron daubneyi is the predominant Paramphistomidae species in Europe, and its prevalence has increased in the last 10-15 years. In Italy, evidence suggests that the prevalence of F. hepatica in ruminants is low in the southern part, but C. daubneyi has been recently reported at high prevalence in the same area. Given the importance of reliable tools for liver and rumen fluke diagnosis in ruminants, this study evaluated the diagnostic performance of the Mini-FLOTAC (MF), Flukefinder(R) (FF) and sedimentation (SED) techniques to detect and quantify F. hepatica and C. daubneyi eggs using spiked and naturally infected cattle faecal samples. METHODS Briefly, negative bovine faecal samples were artificially spiked with either F. hepatica or C. daubneyi eggs to achieve different egg count levels: 10, 50 and 100 eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces. Moreover, ten naturally infected cattle farms from southern Italy with either F. hepatica and/or C. daubneyi were selected. For each farm, the samples were analysed individually only with MF technique and as pools using MF, FF and SED techniques. Bayesian latent class analysis (LCA) was used to estimate sensitivity and accuracy of the predicted intensity of infection as well as the infection rate in the naturally infected farms. RESULTS The outcome of this study showed that the highest number of eggs (F. hepatica and C. daubneyi) recovered was obtained with MF, followed by FF and SED in spiked infected samples at 50 and 100 EPG, while at lower infection levels of 10 EPG, FF gave the best results. Moreover, the sensitivity for all the techniques included in the study was estimated at > 90% at infection levels > 20 EPG for both F. hepatica and C. daubneyi eggs. However, MF was the most accurate of the three techniques evaluated to estimate fluke infection intensity. Nevertheless, all three techniques can potentially estimate infection rate at farm level accurately. CONCLUSIONS Optimization and standardization of techniques are needed to improve the FEC of fluke eggs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Bosco
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Production, University of Naples Federico II, Regional Center for Monitoring Parasitic infections (CREMOPAR), Naples, Italy
| | - Lavinia Ciuca
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Production, University of Naples Federico II, Regional Center for Monitoring Parasitic infections (CREMOPAR), Naples, Italy
| | - Maria Paola Maurelli
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Production, University of Naples Federico II, Regional Center for Monitoring Parasitic infections (CREMOPAR), Naples, Italy
| | - Paola Vitiello
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Production, University of Naples Federico II, Regional Center for Monitoring Parasitic infections (CREMOPAR), Naples, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Cringoli
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Production, University of Naples Federico II, Regional Center for Monitoring Parasitic infections (CREMOPAR), Naples, Italy
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guilford, UK
| | - Laura Rinaldi
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Production, University of Naples Federico II, Regional Center for Monitoring Parasitic infections (CREMOPAR), Naples, Italy
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13
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Taylor E, Prada JM, Del Rio Vilas V, Undurraga EA, Wallace R, Horton DL. Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Integrated Bite Case Management and Sustained Dog Vaccination for Rabies Control. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2023:tpmd220308. [PMID: 37188344 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The successful prevention, control, and elimination of dog-mediated rabies is challenging due to insufficient resource availability and inadequate placement. An integrated dog bite case management (IBCM) system plus dog vaccination can help address these challenges. Based on data from the IBCM system in Haiti, we conducted a cost-effectiveness evaluation of a newly established IBCM system plus sustained vaccination and compared it with 1) a no bite-case management (NBCM) and 2) a non-risk-based (NRB) program, where bite victims presenting at a health clinic would receive post-exposure prophylaxis regardless of risk assessment. We also provide cost-effectiveness guidance for an ongoing IBCM system and for sub-optimal dog vaccination coverages, considering that not all cost-effective interventions are affordable. Cost-effectiveness outcomes included average cost per human death averted (USD/death averted) and per life-year gained (LYG). The analysis used a governmental perspective. Considering a sustained 5-year implementation with 70% dog vaccination coverage, IBCM had a lower average cost per death averted (IBCM: $7,528, NBCM: $7,797, NRB: $15,244) and cost per LYG (IBCM: $152, NBCM: $158, NRB: $308) than NBCM and NRB programs. As sensitivity analysis, we estimated cost-effectiveness for alternative scenarios with lower dog-vaccination coverages (30%, 55%) and lower implementation costs. Our results suggest that better health and cost-effectiveness outcomes are achieved with the continued implementation of an IBCM program ($118 per life-year saved) compared with a newly established IBCM program ($152 per life-year saved). Our results suggest that IBCM is more cost-effective than non-integrated programs to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Taylor
- School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Eduardo A Undurraga
- Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile
- CIFAR Azrieli Global Scholars Program, CIFAR, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ryan Wallace
- National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Daniel L Horton
- School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
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14
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Tegegne HA, Bogaardt C, Collineau L, Cazeau G, Lailler R, Reinhardt J, Freeth FTA, Taylor E, Prada JM, Hénaux V. OH-EpiCap: a semi-quantitative tool for the evaluation of One Health epidemiological surveillance capacities and capabilities. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1053986. [PMID: 37250092 PMCID: PMC10213933 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1053986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Although international health agencies encourage the development of One Health (OH) surveillance, many systems remain mostly compartmentalized, with limited collaborations among sectors and disciplines. In the framework of the OH European Joint Programme "MATRIX" project, a generic evaluation tool called OH-EpiCap has been developed to enable individual institutes/governments to characterize, assess and monitor their own OH epidemiological surveillance capacities and capabilities. The tool is organized around three dimensions: organization, operational activities, and impact of the OH surveillance system; each dimension is then divided into four targets, each including four indicators. A semi-quantitative questionnaire enables the scoring of each indicator, with four levels according to the degree of satisfaction in the studied OH surveillance system. The evaluation is conducted by a panel of surveillance representatives (during a half-day workshop or with a back-and-forth process to reach a consensus). An R Shiny-based web application facilitates implementation of the evaluation and visualization of the results, and includes a benchmarking option. The tool was piloted on several foodborne hazards (i.e., Salmonella, Campylobacter, Listeria), emerging threats (e.g., antimicrobial resistance) and other zoonotic hazards (psittacosis) in multiple European countries in 2022. These case studies showed that the OH-EpiCap tool supports the tracing of strengths and weaknesses in epidemiological capacities and the identification of concrete and direct actions to improve collaborative activities at all steps of surveillance. It appears complementary to the existing EU-LabCap tool, designed to assess the capacity and capability of European microbiology laboratories. In addition, it provides opportunity to reinforce trust between surveillance stakeholders from across the system and to build a good foundation for a professional network for further collaboration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henok Ayalew Tegegne
- University of Lyon - Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire de L'Alimentation, de L'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, Lyon, France
| | - Carlijn Bogaardt
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Lucie Collineau
- University of Lyon - Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire de L'Alimentation, de L'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, Lyon, France
| | - Géraldine Cazeau
- University of Lyon - Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire de L'Alimentation, de L'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, Lyon, France
| | - Renaud Lailler
- University of Paris Est - Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire de L'Alimentation, de L'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Laboratory for Food Safety, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Johana Reinhardt
- University of Lyon - Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire de L'Alimentation, de L'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, Lyon, France
| | - Frederick T. A. Freeth
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Emma Taylor
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Viviane Hénaux
- University of Lyon - Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire de L'Alimentation, de L'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Laboratory of Lyon, Epidemiology and Support to Surveillance Unit, Lyon, France
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15
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Taylor E, George K, Johnson E, Whitelegg H, Prada JM, Horton DL. Quantifying the interconnectedness between poverty, health access, and rabies mortality. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011204. [PMID: 37079553 PMCID: PMC10118163 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 02/28/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023] Open
Abstract
The global 2030 goal set by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies deaths, has undeniably been a catalyst for many countries to re-assess existing dog rabies control programmes. Additionally, the 2030 agenda for Sustainable Development includes a blueprint for global targets which will benefit both people and secure the health of the planet. Rabies is acknowledged as a disease of poverty, but the connections between economic development and rabies control and elimination are poorly quantified yet, critical evidence for planning and prioritisation. We have developed multiple generalised linear models, to model the relationship between health care access, poverty, and death rate as a result of rabies, with separate indicators that can be used at country-level; total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and current health expenditure as a percentage of the total gross domestic product (% GDP) as an indicator of economic growth; and a metric of poverty assessing the extent and intensity of deprivation experienced at the individual level (Multidimensional Poverty Index, MPI). Notably there was no detectable relationship between GDP or current health expenditure (% GDP) and death rate from rabies. However, MPI showed statistically significant relationships with per capita rabies deaths and the probability of receiving lifesaving post exposure prophylaxis. We highlight that those most at risk of not being treated, and dying due to rabies, live in communities experiencing health care inequalities, readily measured through poverty indicators. These data demonstrate that economic growth alone, may not be enough to meet the 2030 goal. Indeed, other strategies such as targeting vulnerable populations and responsible pet ownership are also needed in addition to economic investment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Taylor
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Katy George
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Emily Johnson
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Hannah Whitelegg
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel L Horton
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
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16
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Taylor E, Aguilar-Ancori EG, Banyard AC, Abel I, Mantini-Briggs C, Briggs CL, Carrillo C, Gavidia CM, Castillo-Neyra R, Parola AD, Villena FE, Prada JM, Petersen BW, Falcon Perez N, Cabezas Sanchez C, Sihuincha M, Streicker DG, Maguina Vargas C, Navarro Vela AM, Vigilato MAN, Wen Fan H, Willoughby R, Horton DL, Recuenco SE. The Amazonian Tropical Bites Research Initiative, a hope for resolving zoonotic neglected tropical diseases in the One Health era. Int Health 2023; 15:216-223. [PMID: 35896028 PMCID: PMC9384559 DOI: 10.1093/inthealth/ihac048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2021] [Revised: 03/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) disproportionately affect populations living in resource-limited settings. In the Amazon basin, substantial numbers of NTDs are zoonotic, transmitted by vertebrate (dogs, bats, snakes) and invertebrate species (sand flies and triatomine insects). However, no dedicated consortia exist to find commonalities in the risk factors for or mitigations against bite-associated NTDs such as rabies, snake envenoming, Chagas disease and leishmaniasis in the region. The rapid expansion of COVID-19 has further reduced resources for NTDs, exacerbated health inequality and reiterated the need to raise awareness of NTDs related to bites. METHODS The nine countries that make up the Amazon basin have been considered (Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Surinam and Venezuela) in the formation of a new network. RESULTS The Amazonian Tropical Bites Research Initiative (ATBRI) has been created, with the aim of creating transdisciplinary solutions to the problem of animal bites leading to disease in Amazonian communities. The ATBRI seeks to unify the currently disjointed approach to the control of bite-related neglected zoonoses across Latin America. CONCLUSIONS The coordination of different sectors and inclusion of all stakeholders will advance this field and generate evidence for policy-making, promoting governance and linkage across a One Health arena.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Taylor
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Elsa Gladys Aguilar-Ancori
- Instituto Universitario de Enfermedades Tropicales y Biomedicina de Cusco - Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, 08003, Peru
| | - Ashley C Banyard
- Animal and PlantHealth Agency, WoodhamLane, New Haw, Weybridge, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
| | - Isis Abel
- Laboratório de Epidemiologia e Geoprocessamento, Instituto de MedicinaVeterinária, Universidade Federal do Pará, Castanhal, Pará, 68743-970, Brasil
| | - Clara Mantini-Briggs
- Berkeley Center for Social Medicine and the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues, University of California, Berkeley, 94720-5670, USA
| | - Charles L Briggs
- Berkeley Center for Social Medicine and the Department of Anthropology, University of California, Berkeley, 94720-5670, USA
| | - Carolina Carrillo
- Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología Dr. Cesar Milstein, Fundación Pablo Cassará - ConsejoNacional de InvestigacionesCientíficas y Técnicas, Saladillo 2468 (C1440FFX) Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Cesar M Gavidia
- Facultad de MedicinaVeterinaria, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, 15021, Perú
| | - Ricardo Castillo-Neyra
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, 19104-6021, USA
- One Health Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad PeruanaCayetano Heredia, Lima, 15102, Peru
| | - Alejandro D Parola
- Fundación Pablo Cassará. Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología Dr. Cesar Milstein, Saladillo 2468 (C1440FFX) Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Fredy E Villena
- Asociaciónpara el Empleo y Bienestar Animal en Investigación y Docencia (ASOPEBAID), Lima, 15072, Peru
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Brett W Petersen
- Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, 30333, USA
| | - Nestor Falcon Perez
- Facultad de MedicinaVeterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, 15102, Perú
| | - Cesar Cabezas Sanchez
- Centro de InvestigacionesTecnologicas, Biomedicas y Medioambientales-CITBM, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, 15081, Peru
| | | | - Daniel G Streicker
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, G61 1QH, UK
| | - Ciro Maguina Vargas
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander Von Humbolt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, 15102, Perú
| | | | - Marco A N Vigilato
- Pan American Center for Foot and Mouth Disease and Veterinary Public Health, Department of Communicable Diseases and Environmental Determinants of Health, Pan American Health Organization, Rio de Janeiro, 25040-004, Brazil
| | - Hui Wen Fan
- Bioindustrial Center, InstitutoButantan, São Paulo, 05503-900, Brazil
| | | | - Daniel L Horton
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Sergio E Recuenco
- Centro de InvestigacionesTecnologicas, Biomedicas y Medioambientales-CITBM, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, 15081, Peru
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Guo R, Wolff C, Prada JM, Mughini-Gras L. When COVID-19 sits on people's laps: A systematic review of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in household dogs and cats. One Health 2023; 16:100497. [PMID: 36778083 PMCID: PMC9896854 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Revised: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 02/01/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, questions were raised about whether SARS-CoV-2 can infect pets and the potential risks posed to and by their human owners. We performed a systematic review of studies on SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in naturally infected household dogs and cats conducted worldwide and published before January 2022. Data on SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence, as determined by either molecular or serological methods, and accompanying information, were summarized. Screening studies targeting the general dog or cat populations were differentiated from those targeting households with known COVID-19-positive people. Studies focusing on stray, sheltered or working animals were excluded. In total, 17 studies were included in this review. Fourteen studies investigated cats, 13 investigated dogs, and 10 investigated both. Five studies reported molecular prevalence, 16 reported seroprevalence, and four reported both. All but two studies started and ended in 2020. Studies were conducted in eight European countries (Italy, France, Spain, Croatia, Germany, the Netherlands, UK, Poland), three Asian countries (Iran, Japan, China) and the USA. Both molecular and serological prevalence in the general pet population were usually below 5%, but exceeded 10% when COVID-19 positive people were known to be present in the household. A meta-analysis provided pooled seroprevalence estimates in the general pet population: 2.75% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.56-4.79%) and 0.82% (95% CI: 0.26-2.54%) for cats and dogs, respectively. This review highlighted the need for a better understanding of the possible epizootic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the need for global standards for SARS-CoV-2 detection in pets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruoshui Guo
- Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | | | | | - Lapo Mughini-Gras
- Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands,National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands,Corresponding author at: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721MA Bilthoven, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
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18
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Healy SR, Morgan ER, Prada JM, Betson M. From fox to fork? Toxocara contamination of spinach grown in the south of England, UK. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:49. [PMID: 36732821 PMCID: PMC9896772 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05674-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2022] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Toxocara canis and Toxocara cati are intestinal parasites of dogs, cats and foxes, with infected animals shedding eggs of the parasite in their faeces. If humans accidentally ingest embryonated Toxocara spp. eggs from the environment, severe clinical consequences, including blindness and brain damage, can occur. Previous work has demonstrated the presence of Toxocara spp. eggs on vegetable produce grown in the UK, but only in small-scale community gardens. The aim of this study was to determine whether Toxocara spp. eggs are also present on vegetables grown on commercial farms in the UK, which supply produce to a greater number of people. METHODS A total of 120 samples (300 g each) of spinach (Spinacia oleracea) were collected across four farms in the south of England, UK. The samples were processed using a sieving approach followed by multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis. RESULTS Overall, 23.0% of samples were positive for T. canis (28/120; 95% confidence interval 16.7-31.7%) and 1.7% for T. cati (2/120; 95% confidence interval 0.5-5.9%). There was a statistically significant difference in the number of positive samples between farms (P = 0.0064). To our knowledge, this is the first report of the isolation of Toxocara spp. from vegetables grown on commercial farms in the UK. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study highlight the requirement for the thorough washing of vegetables prior to their consumption, especially those such as spinach which may be eaten without first peeling or cooking, and effective farm biosecurity measures to minimise access to farmland by definitive host species of Toxocara spp.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara R. Healy
- grid.5475.30000 0004 0407 4824School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, GU2 7AL Surrey UK
| | - Eric R. Morgan
- grid.4777.30000 0004 0374 7521Institute for Global Food Security, Queen’s University, Biological Sciences Building, 19 Chlorine Gardens, Belfast, BT9 5DL UK
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- grid.5475.30000 0004 0407 4824School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, GU2 7AL Surrey UK
| | - Martha Betson
- grid.5475.30000 0004 0407 4824School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, GU2 7AL Surrey UK
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Gardner B, Betson M, Cabal Rosel A, Caniça M, Chambers MA, Contadini FM, Gonzalez Villeta LC, Hassan MM, La Ragione RM, de Menezes A, Messina D, Nichols G, Olivença DV, Phalkey R, Prada JM, Ruppitsch W, Santorelli LA, Selemetas N, Tharmakulasingam M, M van Vliet AH, Woegerbauer M, Deza-Cruz I, Lo Iacono G. Mapping the evidence of the effects of environmental factors on the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in the non-built environment: Protocol for a systematic evidence map. Environ Int 2023; 171:107707. [PMID: 36566718 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107707] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Revised: 12/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human, animal, and environmental health are increasingly threatened by the emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance. Inappropriate use of antibiotic treatments commonly contributes to this threat, but it is also becoming apparent that multiple, interconnected environmental factors can play a significant role. Thus, a One Health approach is required for a comprehensive understanding of the environmental dimensions of antibiotic resistance and inform science-based decisions and actions. The broad and multidisciplinary nature of the problem poses several open questions drawing upon a wide heterogeneous range of studies. OBJECTIVE This study seeks to collect and catalogue the evidence of the potential effects of environmental factors on the abundance or detection of antibiotic resistance determinants in the outdoor environment, i.e., antibiotic resistant bacteria and mobile genetic elements carrying antibiotic resistance genes, and the effect on those caused by local environmental conditions of either natural or anthropogenic origin. METHODS Here, we describe the protocol for a systematic evidence map to address this, which will be performed in adherence to best practice guidelines. We will search the literature from 1990 to present, using the following electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, and the Web of Science Core Collection as well as the grey literature. We shall include full-text, scientific articles published in English. Reviewers will work in pairs to screen title, abstract and keywords first and then full-text documents. Data extraction will adhere to a code book purposely designed. Risk of bias assessment will not be conducted as part of this SEM. We will combine tables, graphs, and other suitable visualisation techniques to compile a database i) of studies investigating the factors associated with the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in the environment and ii) map the distribution, network, cross-disciplinarity, impact and trends in the literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian Gardner
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | - Martha Betson
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | | | - Manuela Caniça
- National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Portugal
| | - Mark A Chambers
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK; School of Biosciences and Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, Surrey, UK
| | - Francesca M Contadini
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | - Laura C Gonzalez Villeta
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | - Marwa M Hassan
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | - Roberto M La Ragione
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK; School of Biosciences and Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, Surrey, UK
| | | | - Davide Messina
- School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, UK
| | | | | | | | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | | | - Lorenzo A Santorelli
- School of Biosciences and Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, Surrey, UK
| | - Nick Selemetas
- School of Biosciences and Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, Surrey, UK
| | - Mukunthan Tharmakulasingam
- Centre for Vision, Speech and Signal Processing, Faculty of Electronics and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, Surrey, UK
| | - Arnoud H M van Vliet
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | | | - Iñaki Deza-Cruz
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK
| | - Giovanni Lo Iacono
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7AL, Surrey, UK; The Surrey Institute for People-Centred Artificial Intelligence, UK.
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20
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Ludi AB, McLaws M, Armson B, Clark J, Di Nardo A, Parekh K, Henstock M, Muellner P, Muellner UJ, Rosso F, Prada JM, Horton DL, Paton DJ, Sumption K, King DP. PRAGMATIST: A tool to prioritize foot-and-mouth disease virus antigens held in vaccine banks. Front Vet Sci 2022; 9:1029075. [PMID: 36590816 PMCID: PMC9798001 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2022.1029075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Antigen banks have been established to supply foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) vaccines at short notice to respond to incursions or upsurges in cases of FMDV infection. Multiple vaccine strains are needed to protect against specific FMDV lineages that circulate within six viral serotypes that are unevenly distributed across the world. The optimal selection of distinct antigens held in a bank must carefully balance the desire to cover these risks with the costs of purchasing and maintaining vaccine antigens. PRAGMATIST is a semi-quantitative FMD vaccine strain selection tool combining three strands of evidence: (1) estimates of the risk of incursion from specific areas (source area score); (2) estimates of the relative prevalence of FMD viral lineages in each specific area (lineage distribution score); and (3) effectiveness of each vaccine against specific FMDV lineages based on laboratory vaccine matching tests (vaccine coverage score). The output is a vaccine score, which identifies vaccine strains that best address the threats, and consequently which are the highest priority for inclusion in vaccine antigen banks. In this paper, data used to populate PRAGMATIST are described, including the results from expert elicitations regarding FMD risk and viral lineage circulation, while vaccine coverage data is provided from vaccine matching tests performed at the WRLFMD between 2011 and 2021 (n = 2,150). These data were tailored to working examples for three hypothetical vaccine antigen bank perspectives (Europe, North America, and Australia). The results highlight the variation in the vaccine antigens required for storage in these different regions, dependent on risk. While the tool outputs are largely robust to uncertainty in the input parameters, variation in vaccine coverage score had the most noticeable impact on the estimated risk covered by each vaccine, particularly for vaccines that provide substantial risk coverage across several lineages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna B. Ludi
- Vesicular Disease Reference Laboratory, The Pirbright Institute, Woking, United Kingdom
| | - Melissa McLaws
- The European Commission for the Control of Foot and Mouth Disease (EuFMD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy,*Correspondence: Melissa McLaws
| | - Bryony Armson
- The European Commission for the Control of Foot and Mouth Disease (EuFMD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Jessica Clark
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom,Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Antonello Di Nardo
- Vesicular Disease Reference Laboratory, The Pirbright Institute, Woking, United Kingdom
| | - Krupali Parekh
- Vesicular Disease Reference Laboratory, The Pirbright Institute, Woking, United Kingdom
| | - Mark Henstock
- Vesicular Disease Reference Laboratory, The Pirbright Institute, Woking, United Kingdom
| | - Petra Muellner
- Epi-Interactive, Miramar, Wellington, New Zealand,School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | | | - Fabrizio Rosso
- The European Commission for the Control of Foot and Mouth Disease (EuFMD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel L. Horton
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - David J. Paton
- Vesicular Disease Reference Laboratory, The Pirbright Institute, Woking, United Kingdom,The European Commission for the Control of Foot and Mouth Disease (EuFMD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Keith Sumption
- The European Commission for the Control of Foot and Mouth Disease (EuFMD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Donald P. King
- Vesicular Disease Reference Laboratory, The Pirbright Institute, Woking, United Kingdom
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21
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Stolk WA, Coffeng LE, Bolay FK, Eneanya OA, Fischer PU, Hollingsworth TD, Koudou BG, Méité A, Michael E, Prada JM, Caja Rivera RM, Sharma S, Touloupou P, Weil GJ, de Vlas SJ. Comparing antigenaemia- and microfilaraemia as criteria for stopping decisions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in Africa. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010953. [PMID: 36508458 PMCID: PMC9779720 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Revised: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mass drug administration (MDA) is the main strategy towards lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination. Progress is monitored by assessing microfilaraemia (Mf) or circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) prevalence, the latter being more practical for field surveys. The current criterion for stopping MDA requires <2% CFA prevalence in 6- to 7-year olds, but this criterion is not evidence-based. We used mathematical modelling to investigate the validity of different thresholds regarding testing method and age group for African MDA programmes using ivermectin plus albendazole. METHODOLGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We verified that our model captures observed patterns in Mf and CFA prevalence during annual MDA, assuming that CFA tests are positive if at least one adult worm is present. We then assessed how well elimination can be predicted from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year-old children or from Mf or CFA prevalence in the 5+ or 15+ population, and determined safe (>95% positive predictive value) thresholds for stopping MDA. The model captured trends in Mf and CFA prevalences reasonably well. Elimination cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year olds. Resurgence may still occur if all children are antigen-negative, irrespective of the number tested. Mf-based criteria also show unfavourable results (PPV <95% or unpractically low threshold). CFA prevalences in the 5+ or 15+ population are the best predictors, and post-MDA threshold values for stopping MDA can be as high as 10% for 15+. These thresholds are robust for various alternative assumptions regarding baseline endemicity, biological parameters and sampling strategies. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE For African areas with moderate to high pre-treatment Mf prevalence that have had 6 or more rounds of annual ivermectin/albendazole MDA with adequate coverage, we recommend to adopt a CFA threshold prevalence of 10% in adults (15+) for stopping MDA. This could be combined with Mf testing of CFA positives to ensure absence of a significant Mf reservoir for transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wilma A. Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- * E-mail:
| | - Luc E. Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Fatorma K. Bolay
- National Public Health Institute of Liberia (NPHIL), Monrovia, Liberia
| | - Obiora A. Eneanya
- Infectious Diseases Division, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America
| | - Peter U. Fischer
- Infectious Diseases Division, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America
| | - T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Benjamin G. Koudou
- Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire, Abidjan, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
- Laboratoire de Cytologie et Biologie Animale, UFR Science de la Nature, Université Nangui Abrogoua Abidjan, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
| | - Aboulaye Méité
- Programme National de Lutte contre les Maladies Tropicales Négligées à Chimiothérapie Préventive, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
| | - Edwin Michael
- Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, United States of America
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Rocio M. Caja Rivera
- Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, United States of America
| | - Swarnali Sharma
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana, United States of America
- Christian Medical College, IDA Scudder Rd, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Panayiota Touloupou
- Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- School of Mathematics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Gary J. Weil
- Infectious Diseases Division, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America
| | - Sake J. de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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22
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Entezami M, Nocerino M, Widdicombe J, Bosco A, Cringoli G, Casulli A, Iacono GL, Rinaldi L, Prada JM. The spatial distribution of cystic echinococcosis in Italian ruminant farms from routine surveillance data. Front Trop Dis 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fitd.2022.1034572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
IntroductionCystic echinococcosis (CE) is a zoonotic parasite caused by the cestode Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato (s.l.) which predominantly affects livestock. The disease is endemic in central-southern and insular Italy, with CE particularly infecting sheep, goats, cattle, and water buffalo. The spatial distribution of CE in endemic regions is not widely understood, with surveillance efforts varying across the region.MethodsIn this study, we investigated the spatial distribution of CE in livestock using samples from farms across different livestock species using a Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) model. Samples were collected during a survey conducted in the area of central-southern and insular Italy between the years 2019 – 2021.ResultsA total of 3141 animal samples (126 goats, 601 sheep and 2414 cattle and water buffalo) were inspected for Echinococcus s.l. cysts through routine surveillance in abattoirs by postmortem visual examination, palpation and incision of target organs. The geographic location of the farm of origin (a total of 2,878) for each sample was recorded. CE prevalence of 46.0% (1,323/2,878) was estimated at the farm level with 78.3% (462/590) of farms with sheep, 28.6% (36/126) of farms with goats, 36.5% (747/2,049) of farms with cattle, and 23.5% (102/434) of farms with water buffalo infected.DiscussionThe spatial model evaluated the probability of infection in farms across the sampled regions, with the distribution of CE showing high clustering of infected cattle farms in Sardinia and Sicily regions, and sheep farms in Salerno province (Campania region). The output of this study can be used to identify CE hot-spots and to improve surveillance and control programs in endemic areas of Italy.
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23
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Deza-Cruz I, Prada JM, Del Rio Vilas V. An analysis of the accuracy of COVID-19 country transmission classification. Sci Rep 2022; 12:9604. [PMID: 35688930 PMCID: PMC9186008 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-13494-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Accurate epidemiological classification guidelines are essential to ensure implementation of adequate public health and social measures. Here, we investigate two frameworks, published in March 2020 and November 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to categorise transmission risks of COVID-19 infection, and assess how well the countries’ self-reported classification tracked their underlying epidemiological situation. We used three modelling approaches: an ordinal longitudinal model, a proportional odds model and a machine learning One-Rule classification algorithm. We applied these models to 202 countries’ daily transmission classification and epidemiological data, and study classification accuracy over time for the period April 2020 to June 2021, when WHO stopped publishing country classifications. Overall, the first published WHO classification, purely qualitative, lacked accuracy. The incidence rate within the previous 14 days was the best predictor with an average accuracy throughout the period of study of 61.5%. However, when each week was assessed independently, the models returned predictive accuracies above 50% only in the first weeks of April 2020. In contrast, the second classification, quantitative in nature, increased significantly the accuracy of transmission labels, with values as high as 94%.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Deza-Cruz
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, 30 Priestley Road, Surrey Research Park, Guildford, GU2 7YH, Surrey, UK.
| | - J M Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, 30 Priestley Road, Surrey Research Park, Guildford, GU2 7YH, Surrey, UK
| | - V Del Rio Vilas
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for South-East Asia, World Health House, Indraprastha Estate, Mahatama Gandhi Marg, New Delhi, 110 002, India
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24
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Sykes AL, Larrieu E, Poggio TV, Céspedes MG, Mujica GB, Basáñez MG, Prada JM. Modelling diagnostics for Echinococcus granulosus surveillance in sheep using Latent Class Analysis: Argentina as a case study. One Health 2022; 14:100359. [PMID: 34977321 PMCID: PMC8683760 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Revised: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 12/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato is a globally prevalent zoonotic parasitic cestode leading to cystic echinococcosis (CE) in both humans and sheep with both medical and financial impacts, whose reduction requires the application of a One Health approach to its control. Regarding the animal health component of this approach, lack of accurate and practical diagnostics in livestock impedes the assessment of disease burden and the implementation and evaluation of control strategies. We use of a Bayesian Latent Class Analysis (LCA) model to estimate ovine CE prevalence in sheep samples from the Río Negro province of Argentina accounting for uncertainty in the diagnostics. We use model outputs to evaluate the performance of a novel recombinant B8/2 antigen B subunit (rEgAgB8/2) indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting E. granulosus in sheep. Necropsy (as a partial gold standard), western blot (WB) and ELISA diagnostic data were collected from 79 sheep within two Río Negro slaughterhouses, and used to estimate individual infection status (assigned as a latent variable within the model). Using the model outputs, the performance of the novel ELISA at both individual and flock levels was evaluated, respectively, using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and simulating a range of sample sizes and prevalence levels within hypothetical flocks. The estimated (mean) prevalence of ovine CE was 27.5% (95%Bayesian credible interval (95%BCI): 13.8%-58.9%) within the sample population. At the individual level, the ELISA had a mean sensitivity and specificity of 55% (95%BCI: 46%-68%) and 68% (95%BCI: 63%-92%), respectively, at an optimal optical density (OD) threshold of 0.378. At the flock level, the ELISA had an 80% probability of correctly classifying infection at an optimal cut-off threshold of 0.496. These results suggest that the novel ELISA could play a useful role as a flock-level diagnostic for CE surveillance in the region, supplementing surveillance activities in the human population and thus strengthening a One Health approach. Importantly, selection of ELISA cut-off threshold values must be tailored according to the epidemiological situation.
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Key Words
- Argentina
- BCI, Bayesian Credible Interval
- Bayesian inference
- CE, Cystic Echinococcosis
- CI, Confidence Interval
- DALY, Disability-adjusted life year
- Diagnostics
- ELISA, Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay
- Echinococcosis
- JAGS, Just Another Gibbs Sampler
- LCA, Latent class analysis
- Latent class analysis
- MCAR, Missing completely at random
- MCMC, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
- OD, Optical density
- ROC, Receiver Operating Characteristic
- SD, Standard deviation
- Surveillance
- USD, United States Dollar
- WB, Western blot
- WHO, World Health Organization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abagael L. Sykes
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Edmundo Larrieu
- Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Nacional de La Pampa, General Pico, Argentina
- Escuela de Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Choele Choel, Argentina
| | | | | | | | - Maria-Gloria Basáñez
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
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25
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Healy SR, Morgan ER, Prada JM, Betson M. First report demonstrating the presence of Toxocara spp. eggs on vegetables grown in community gardens in Europe. Food Waterborne Parasitol 2022; 27:e00158. [PMID: 35518124 PMCID: PMC9061247 DOI: 10.1016/j.fawpar.2022.e00158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Revised: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Toxocara canis and T. cati are zoonotic roundworm parasites of dogs, cats and foxes. These definitive hosts pass eggs in their faeces, which contaminate the environment and can subsequently be ingested via soil or contaminated vegetables. In humans, infection with Toxocara can have serious health implications. This proof-of-concept study aimed to investigate the presence of Toxocara spp. eggs on ‘ready-to-eat’ vegetables (lettuce, spinach, spring onion and celery) sampled from community gardens in southern England. The contamination of vegetables with Toxocara eggs has never been investigated in the UK before, and more widely, this is the first time vegetables grown in community gardens in Europe have been assessed for Toxocara egg contamination. Sixteen community gardens participated in the study, providing 82 vegetable samples fit for analysis. Study participants also completed an anonymous questionnaire on observed visits to the sites by definitive hosts of Toxocara. Comparison of egg recovery methods was performed using lettuce samples spiked with a series of Toxocara spp. egg concentrations, with sedimentation and centrifugal concentration retrieving the highest number of eggs. A sample (100 g) of each vegetable type obtained from participating community gardens was tested for the presence of Toxocara eggs using the optimised method. Two lettuce samples tested positive for Toxocara spp. eggs, giving a prevalence of 2.4% (95% CI =1.3–3.5%) for vegetable samples overall, and 6.5% (95% CI = 4.7–8.3%; n = 31) specifically for lettuce. Questionnaire data revealed that foxes, cats and dogs frequently visited the community gardens in the study, with 88% (68/77) of respondents reporting seeing a definitive host species or the faeces of a definitive host at their site. This proof-of-concept study showed for the first time the presence of Toxocara spp. eggs on vegetables grown in the UK, as well as within the soil where these vegetables originated, and highlights biosecurity and zoonotic risks in community gardens. This study establishes a method for assessment of Toxocara spp. eggs on vegetable produce and paves the way for larger-scale investigations of Toxocara spp. egg contamination on field-grown vegetables. First report of Toxocara eggs on vegetables grown in community gardens in Europe. Toxocara also detected in the soil where these vegetables originated. Definitive hosts for Toxocara canis and T. cati frequently visit community gardens. Sedimentation method recovered the most Toxocara eggs from spiked lettuce samples.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara R. Healy
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL, UK
- Corresponding author.
| | - Eric R. Morgan
- Queen's University, Institute for Global Food Security, Biological Sciences Building, 19 Chlorine Gardens, BT9 5DL Belfast, UK
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Martha Betson
- University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL, UK
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Poggio TV, Gómez JM, Boado LA, Vojnov AA, Larrieu E, Mujica GB, Jensen O, Gertiser ML, Prada JM, Basáñez MG. Immunodiagnosis of cystic echinococcosis in livestock: Development and validation dataset of an ELISA test using a recombinant B8/2 subunit of Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato. Data Brief 2022; 42:108255. [PMID: 35669005 PMCID: PMC9163409 DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2022.108255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The accuracy of screening tests for detecting cystic echinococcosis (CE) in livestock depends on characteristics of the host-parasite interaction and the extent of serological cross-reactivity with other taeniid species. The AgB8 kDa protein is considered to be the most specific native or recombinant antigen for immunodiagnosis of ovine CE. A particular DNA fragment coding for rAgB8/2 was identified, that provides evidence of specific reaction in the serodiagnosis of metacestode infection. We developed and validated an IgG Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) test using a recombinant antigen B sub-unit EgAgB8/2 (rAgB8/2) of Echinoccocus granulosus sensu lato (s.l.) to estimate CE prevalence in sheep. A 273 bp DNA fragment coding for rAgB8/2 was expressed as a fusion protein (∼30 kDa) and purified by affinity chromatography. Evaluation of the analytical and diagnostic performance of the ELISA followed the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) manual, including implementation of serum panels from: uninfected lambs (n = 79); experimentally infected (with 2,000 E. granulosus s.l. eggs each) sheep with subsequent evidence of E. granulosus cysts by necropsy (n = 36), and animals carrying other metacestode/trematode infections (n = 20). The latter were used to assess the cross-reactivity of rAgB8/2, with these animals being naturally infected with Taenia hydatigena, Thysanosoma actinioides and/or Fasciola hepatica. EgAgB8/2 showed cross-reaction with only one serum sample from a sheep infected with Ta. hydatigena out of the 20 animals tested. Furthermore, the kinetics of the humoral response over time in five 6-month old sheep, each experimentally infected with 2,000 E. granulosus s.l. eggs, was evaluated up to 49 weeks (approximately one year) post infection (n = 5). The earliest detectable IgG response against rAgB8/2 was observed in sera from two and four sheep, 7 and 14 days after experimental infection, respectively. The highest immune response across all five animals was found 16 to 24 weeks post infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thelma Verónica Poggio
- Laboratorio de Diseño y Desarrollo, Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología César Milstein (ICT-Milstein-CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - José Manuel Gómez
- Laboratorio de Diseño y Desarrollo, Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología César Milstein (ICT-Milstein-CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Lorena Analia Boado
- Laboratorio de Diseño y Desarrollo, Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología César Milstein (ICT-Milstein-CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Adrián Alberto Vojnov
- Laboratorio de Diseño y Desarrollo, Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología César Milstein (ICT-Milstein-CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Edmundo Larrieu
- Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Nacional de La Pampa, General Pico, Argentina
- Escuela de Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Choele Choel, Argentina
| | | | - Oscar Jensen
- Centro de Investigación en Zoonosis, Provincia de Chubut, Argentina
| | | | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - Maria-Gloria Basáñez
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Corresponding author.
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Clark J, Moses A, Nankasi A, Faust CL, Moses A, Ajambo D, Besigye F, Atuhaire A, Wamboko A, Carruthers LV, Francoeur R, Tukahebwa EM, Prada JM, Lamberton PHL. Reconciling Egg- and Antigen-Based Estimates of Schistosoma mansoni Clearance and Reinfection: A Modeling Study. Clin Infect Dis 2022; 74:1557-1563. [PMID: 34358299 PMCID: PMC9070857 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite decades of interventions, 240 million people have schistosomiasis. Infections cannot be directly observed, and egg-based Kato-Katz thick smears lack sensitivity, affected treatment efficacy and reinfection rate estimates. The point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (referred to from here as POC-CCA+) test is advocated as an improvement on the Kato-Katz method, but improved estimates are limited by ambiguities in the interpretation of trace results. METHOD We collected repeated Kato-Katz egg counts from 210 school-aged children and scored POC-CCA tests according to the manufacturer's guidelines (referred to from here as POC-CCA+) and the externally developed G score. We used hidden Markov models parameterized with Kato-Katz; Kato-Katz and POC-CCA+; and Kato-Katz and G-Scores, inferring latent clearance and reinfection probabilities at four timepoints over six-months through a more formal statistical reconciliation of these diagnostics than previously conducted. Our approach required minimal but robust assumptions regarding trace interpretations. RESULTS Antigen-based models estimated higher infection prevalence across all timepoints compared with the Kato-Katz model, corresponding to lower clearance and higher reinfection estimates. Specifically, pre-treatment prevalence estimates were 85% (Kato-Katz; 95% CI: 79%-92%), 99% (POC-CCA+; 97%-100%) and 98% (G-Score; 95%-100%). Post-treatment, 93% (Kato-Katz; 88%-96%), 72% (POC-CCA+; 64%-79%) and 65% (G-Score; 57%-73%) of those infected were estimated to clear infection. Of those who cleared infection, 35% (Kato-Katz; 27%-42%), 51% (POC-CCA+; 41%-62%) and 44% (G-Score; 33%-55%) were estimated to have been reinfected by 9-weeks. CONCLUSIONS Treatment impact was shorter-lived than Kato-Katz-based estimates alone suggested, with lower clearance and rapid reinfection. At 3 weeks after treatment, longer-term clearance dynamics are captured. At 9 weeks after treatment, reinfection was captured, but failed clearance could not be distinguished from rapid reinfection. Therefore, frequent sampling is required to understand these important epidemiological dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Clark
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Christina L Faust
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Adriko Moses
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Uganda
| | - Diana Ajambo
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Uganda
| | - Fred Besigye
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Uganda
| | | | | | - Lauren V Carruthers
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Rachel Francoeur
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- Faculty of Science & Engineering, University of Chester, Chester, United Kingdom
| | | | - Joaquin M Prada
- Faculty of Health & Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Poppy H L Lamberton
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
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Clark J, Moses A, Nankasi A, Faust CL, Adriko M, Ajambo D, Besigye F, Atuhaire A, Wamboko A, Rowel C, Carruthers LV, Francoeur R, Tukahebwa EM, Lamberton PHL, Prada JM. Translating From Egg- to Antigen-Based Indicators for Schistosoma mansoni Elimination Targets: A Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Study. Front Trop Dis 2022; 3:825721. [PMID: 35784267 PMCID: PMC7612949 DOI: 10.3389/fitd.2022.825721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease affecting over 240-million people. World Health Organization (WHO) targets for Schistosoma mansoni elimination are based on Kato-Katz egg counts, without translation to the widely used, urine-based, point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen diagnostic (POC-CCA). We aimed to standardize POC-CCA score interpretation and translate them to Kato-Katz-based standards, broadening diagnostic utility in progress towards elimination. A Bayesian latent-class model was fit to data from 210 school-aged-children over four timepoints pre- to six-months-post-treatment. We used 1) Kato-Katz and established POC-CCA scoring (Negative, Trace, +, ++ and +++), and 2) Kato-Katz and G-Scores (a new, alternative POC-CCA scoring (G1 to G10)). We established the functional relationship between Kato-Katz counts and POC-CCA scores, and the score-associated probability of true infection. This was combined with measures of sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve to determine the optimal POC-CCA scoring system and positivity threshold. A simulation parametrized with model estimates established antigen-based elimination targets. True infection was associated with POC-CCA scores of ≥ + or ≥G3. POC-CCA scores cannot predict Kato-Katz counts because low infection intensities saturate the POC-CCA cassettes. Post-treatment POC-CCA sensitivity/specificity fluctuations indicate a changing relationship between egg excretion and antigen levels (living worms). Elimination targets can be identified by the POC-CCA score distribution in a population. A population with ≤2% ++/+++, or ≤0.5% G7 and above, indicates achieving current WHO Kato-Katz-based elimination targets. Population-level POC-CCA scores can be used to access WHO elimination targets prior to treatment. Caution should be exercised on an individual level and following treatment, as POC-CCAs lack resolution to discern between WHO Kato-Katz-based moderate- and high-intensity-infection categories, with limited use in certain settings and evaluations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Clark
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- Correspondence: Jessica Clark, ; Joaquin M. Prada,
| | - Arinaitwe Moses
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Andrina Nankasi
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Christina L. Faust
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Moses Adriko
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Diana Ajambo
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Fred Besigye
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Arron Atuhaire
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Aidah Wamboko
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Candia Rowel
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Lauren V. Carruthers
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Rachel Francoeur
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Chester, Chester, United Kingdom
| | | | - Poppy H. L. Lamberton
- Wellcome Centre for Integrative Parasitology, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- Correspondence: Jessica Clark, ; Joaquin M. Prada,
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Kajero OT, Janoušková E, Bakare EA, Belizario V, Divina B, Alonte AJ, Manalo SM, Paller VG, Betson M, Prada JM. OUP accepted manuscript. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2022; 116:727-735. [PMID: 35169848 PMCID: PMC9356178 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trac002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2021] [Revised: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Background A large number of studies have assessed risk factors for infection with soil-transmitted helminths (STH), but few have investigated the interactions between the different parasites or compared these between host species across hosts. Here, we assessed the associations between Ascaris, Trichuris, hookworm, strongyle and Toxocara infections in the Philippines in human and animal hosts. Methods Faecal samples were collected from humans and animals (dogs, cats and pigs) in 252 households from four villages in southern Philippines and intestinal helminth infections were assessed by microscopy. Associations between worm species were assessed using multiple logistic regression. Results Ascaris infections showed a similar prevalence in humans (13.9%) and pigs (13.7%). Hookworm was the most prevalent infection in dogs (48%); the most prevalent infection in pigs was strongyles (42%). The prevalences of hookworm and Toxocara in cats were similar (41%). Statistically significant associations were observed between Ascaris and Trichuris and between Ascaris and hookworm infections in humans, and also between Ascaris and Trichuris infections in pigs. Dual and triple infections were observed, which were more common in dogs, cats and pigs than in humans. Conclusions Associations are likely to exist between STH species in humans and animals, possibly due to shared exposures and transmission routes. Individual factors and behaviours will play a key role in the occurrence of co-infections, which will have effects on disease severity. Moreover, the implications of co-infection for the emergence of zoonoses need to be explored further.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olumayowa T Kajero
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health & Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Eva Janoušková
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health & Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Emmanuel A Bakare
- Biomathematics and Applied Mathematical Modelling Research Group, Modelling Simulation and Data Science Network, Department of Mathematics, Federal University Oye-Ekiti, 371104, Ekiti, Nigeria
| | - Vicente Belizario
- College of Public Health, University of Philippines, Manila, 1000, Philippines
| | - Billy Divina
- Department of Veterinary Paraclinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of the Philippines Los Baños, 4030, Philippines
| | - Allen Jethro Alonte
- Animal Biology Division, Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Los Baños, 4030, Philippines
| | - Sheina Macy Manalo
- Department of Veterinary Paraclinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of the Philippines Los Baños, 4030, Philippines
| | - Vachel Gay Paller
- Department of Veterinary Paraclinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of the Philippines Los Baños, 4030, Philippines
| | - Martha Betson
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health & Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, GU2 7AL, UK
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Blumberg S, Prada JM, Tedijanto C, Deiner MS, Godwin WW, Emerson PM, Hooper PJ, Borlase A, Hollingsworth TD, Oldenburg CE, Porco TC, Arnold BF, Lietman TM. Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 72:S134-S139. [PMID: 33905484 PMCID: PMC8201580 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Tremendous progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made. However, there are areas where the clinical indicator of disease, trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF), remains prevalent. We quantify the progress that has been made, and forecast how TF prevalence will evolve with current interventions. We also determine the probability that a district is a transmission-hotspot based on its TF prevalence (ie, reproduction number greater than one). Methods Data on trachoma prevalence come from the GET2020 global repository organized by the World Health Organization and the International Trachoma Initiative. Forecasts of TF prevalence and the percent of districts with local control is achieved by regressing the coefficients of a fitted exponential distribution for the year-by-year distribution of TF prevalence. The probability of a district being a transmission-hotspot is extrapolated from the residuals of the regression. Results Forecasts suggest that with current interventions, 96.5% of surveyed districts will have TF prevalence among children aged 1–9 years <5% by 2030 (95% CI: 86.6%–100.0%). Districts with TF prevalence < 20% appear unlikely to be transmission-hotspots. However, a district having TF prevalence of over 28% in 2016–2019 corresponds to at least 50% probability of being a transmission-hotspot. Conclusions Sustainable control of trachoma appears achievable. However there are transmission-hotspots that are not responding to annual mass drug administration of azithromycin and require enhanced treatment in order to reach local control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seth Blumberg
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - Christine Tedijanto
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Michael S Deiner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - William W Godwin
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Paul M Emerson
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Pamela J Hooper
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Anna Borlase
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - T Deirdre Hollingsworth
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Catherine E Oldenburg
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Benjamin F Arnold
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
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31
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Blumberg S, Borlase A, Prada JM, Solomon AW, Emerson P, Hooper PJ, Deiner MS, Amoah B, Hollingsworth TD, Porco TC, Lietman TM. Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in eliminating trachoma as a public health problem. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2021; 115:222-228. [PMID: 33449114 PMCID: PMC7928550 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/traa170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2020] [Revised: 11/07/2020] [Accepted: 01/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. Methods We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. Results We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of 1. We find that when the basic reproduction number is <1, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is >1, significant delays can occur. In most districts, 1 y of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. Conclusions If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seth Blumberg
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Joaquin M Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - Anthony W Solomon
- Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Paul Emerson
- International Trachoma Initiative, Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, GA, USA
| | - Pamela J Hooper
- International Trachoma Initiative, Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, GA, USA
| | - Michael S Deiner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Benjamin Amoah
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK
| | | | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Borlase A, Blumberg S, Callahan EK, Deiner MS, Nash SD, Porco TC, Solomon AW, Lietman TM, Prada JM, Hollingsworth TD. Modelling trachoma post-2020: opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2021; 115:213-221. [PMID: 33596317 PMCID: PMC7928577 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/traa171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2020] [Revised: 11/10/2020] [Accepted: 02/12/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted planned annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) activities that have formed the cornerstone of the largely successful global efforts to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. METHODS Using a mathematical model we investigate the impact of interruption to MDA in trachoma-endemic settings. We evaluate potential measures to mitigate this impact and consider alternative strategies for accelerating progress in those areas where the trachoma elimination targets may not be achievable otherwise. RESULTS We demonstrate that for districts that were hyperendemic at baseline, or where the trachoma elimination thresholds have not already been achieved after three rounds of MDA, the interruption to planned MDA could lead to a delay to reaching elimination targets greater than the duration of interruption. We also show that an additional round of MDA in the year following MDA resumption could effectively mitigate this delay. For districts where the probability of elimination under annual MDA was already very low, we demonstrate that more intensive MDA schedules are needed to achieve agreed targets. CONCLUSION Through appropriate use of additional MDA, the impact of COVID-19 in terms of delay to reaching trachoma elimination targets can be effectively mitigated. Additionally, more frequent MDA may accelerate progress towards 2030 goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Borlase
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - E Kelly Callahan
- Trachoma Control Program, The Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | - Scott D Nash
- Trachoma Control Program, The Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | - Anthony W Solomon
- Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Joaquin M Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, UK
| | - T Dèirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Toor J, Coffeng LE, Hamley JID, Fronterre C, Prada JM, Castaño MS, Davis EL, Godwin W, Vasconcelos A, Medley GF, Hollingsworth TD. When, Who, and How to Sample: Designing Practical Surveillance for 7 Neglected Tropical Diseases as We Approach Elimination. J Infect Dis 2021; 221:S499-S502. [PMID: 32529261 PMCID: PMC7289548 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
As neglected tropical disease programs look to consolidate the successes of moving towards elimination, we need to understand the dynamics of transmission at low prevalence to inform surveillance strategies for detecting elimination and resurgence. In this special collection, modelling insights are used to highlight drivers of local elimination, evaluate strategies for detecting resurgence, and show the importance of rational spatial sampling schemes for several neglected tropical diseases (specifically schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, lymphatic filariasis, trachoma, onchocerciasis, visceral leishmaniasis, and gambiense sleeping sickness).
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaspreet Toor
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Luc E Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jonathan I D Hamley
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.,Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Claudio Fronterre
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - M Soledad Castaño
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Emma L Davis
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - William Godwin
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Andreia Vasconcelos
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Graham F Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Godwin W, Prada JM, Emerson P, Hooper PJ, Bakhtiari A, Deiner M, Porco TC, Mahmud H, Landskroner E, Hollingsworth TD, Medley GF, Pinsent A, Bailey R, Lietman TM, Oldenburg CE. Trachoma Prevalence After Discontinuation of Mass Azithromycin Distribution. J Infect Dis 2021; 221:S519-S524. [PMID: 32052842 PMCID: PMC7289551 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Background As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF1–9 prevalence at the district level. Methods We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of MDA (TF1–9 prevalence <5%), followed by a surveillance survey conducted to determine whether TF1–9 prevalence remained below the 5% threshold, warranting discontinuation of MDA. Two independent analyses were performed, 1 regression based and 1 simulation based, that assessed the change in TF1–9 from the impact survey to the surveillance survey. Results Of the 220 districts included, TF1–9 prevalence increased to >5% from impact to surveillance survey in 9% of districts. Regression analysis indicated that impact survey TF1–9 prevalence was a significant predictor of surveillance survey TF1–9 prevalence. The proportion of simulations with >5% TF1–9 prevalence in the surveillance survey was 2%, assuming the survey was conducted 4 years after MDA. Conclusion An increase in TF1–9 prevalence may represent disease resurgence but could also be due to measurement error. Improved diagnostic tests are crucial to elimination of TF1–9 as a public health problem.
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Affiliation(s)
- William Godwin
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Emerson
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - P J Hooper
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Ana Bakhtiari
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Michael Deiner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Hamidah Mahmud
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Emma Landskroner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Graham F Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Amy Pinsent
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Robin Bailey
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Catherine E Oldenburg
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
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35
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Coffeng LE, Le Rutte EA, Muñoz J, Adams ER, Prada JM, de Vlas SJ, Medley GF. Impact of Changes in Detection Effort on Control of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent. J Infect Dis 2021; 221:S546-S553. [PMID: 31841593 PMCID: PMC7289545 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent relies on prompt detection and treatment of symptomatic cases. Detection efforts influence the observed VL incidence and how well it reflects the underlying true incidence. As control targets are defined in terms of observed cases, there is an urgent need to understand how changes in detection delay and population coverage of improved detection affect VL control. Methods Using a mathematical model for transmission and control of VL, we predict the impact of reduced detection delays and/or increased population coverage of the detection programs on observed and true VL incidence and mortality. Results Improved case detection, either by higher coverage or reduced detection delay, causes an initial rise in observed VL incidence before a reduction. Relaxation of improved detection may lead to an apparent temporary (1 year) reduction in VL incidence, but comes with a high risk of resurging infection levels. Duration of symptoms in detected cases shows an unequivocal association with detection effort. Conclusions VL incidence on its own is not a reliable indicator of the performance of case detection programs. Duration of symptoms in detected cases can be used as an additional marker of the performance of case detection programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luc E Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Epke A Le Rutte
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.,University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Johanna Muñoz
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Emily R Adams
- Department of Tropical Disease Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Graham F Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease and Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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36
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Galvis JA, Corzo CA, Prada JM, Machado G. Modelling the transmission and vaccination strategy for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:485-500. [PMID: 33506620 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2020] [Revised: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Many aspects of the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) between-farm transmission dynamics have been investigated, but uncertainty remains about the significance of farm type and different transmission routes on PRRSV spread. We developed a stochastic epidemiological model calibrated on weekly PRRSV outbreaks accounting for the population dynamics in different pig production phases, breeding herds, gilt development units, nurseries and finisher farms, of three hog producer companies. Our model accounted for indirect contacts by the close distance between farms (local transmission), between-farm animal movements (pig flow) and reinfection of sow farms (re-break). The fitted model was used to examine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies and complementary interventions such as enhanced PRRSV detection and vaccination delays and forecast the spatial distribution of PRRSV outbreak. The results of our analysis indicated that for sow farms, 59% of the simulated infections were related to local transmission (e.g. airborne, feed deliveries, shared equipment) whereas 36% and 5% were related to animal movements and re-break, respectively. For nursery farms, 80% of infections were related to animal movements and 20% to local transmission; while at finisher farms, it was split between local transmission and animal movements. Assuming that the current vaccines are 1% effective in mitigating between-farm PRRSV transmission, weaned pigs vaccination would reduce the incidence of PRRSV outbreaks by 3%, indeed under any scenario vaccination alone was insufficient for completely controlling PRRSV spread. Our results also showed that intensifying PRRSV detection and/or vaccination pigs at placement increased the effectiveness of all simulated vaccination strategies. Our model reproduced the incidence and PRRSV spatial distribution; therefore, this model could also be used to map current and future farms at-risk. Finally, this model could be a useful tool for veterinarians, allowing them to identify the effect of transmission routes and different vaccination interventions to control PRRSV spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason A Galvis
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Cesar A Corzo
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - Gustavo Machado
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Raleigh, NC, USA
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37
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Galvis JA, Jones CM, Prada JM, Corzo CA, Machado G. The between-farm transmission dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus: A short-term forecast modelling comparison and the effectiveness of control strategies. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:396-412. [PMID: 33475245 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2020] [Revised: 01/11/2021] [Accepted: 01/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
A limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of swine disease is a significant obstacle to prevent and control disease spread. Therefore, understanding between-farm transmission dynamics is crucial to developing disease forecasting systems to predict outbreaks that would allow the swine industry to tailor control strategies. Our objective was to forecast weekly porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) outbreaks by generating maps to identify current and future PEDV high-risk areas, and simulating the impact of control measures. Three epidemiological transmission models were developed and compared: a novel epidemiological modelling framework was developed specifically to model disease spread in swine populations, PigSpread, and two models built on previously developed ecosystems, SimInf (a stochastic disease spread simulations) and PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread). The models were calibrated on true weekly PEDV outbreaks from three spatially related swine production companies. Prediction accuracy across models was compared using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC). Model outputs had a general agreement with observed outbreaks throughout the study period. PoPS had an AUC of 0.80, followed by PigSpread with 0.71, and SimInf had the lowest at 0.59. Our analysis estimates that the combined strategies of herd closure, controlled exposure of gilts to live viruses (feedback) and on-farm biosecurity reinforcement reduced the number of outbreaks. On average, 76% to 89% reduction was seen in sow farms, while in gilt development units (GDU) was between 33% to 61% when deployed to sow and GDU farms located in probabilistic high-risk areas. Our multi-model forecasting approach can be used to prioritize surveillance and intervention strategies for PEDV and other diseases potentially leading to more resilient and healthier pig production systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason A Galvis
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Chris M Jones
- Center for Geospatial Analytics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - Cesar A Corzo
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Gustavo Machado
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Raleigh, NC, USA.,Center for Geospatial Analytics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
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38
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Clark J, Stolk WA, Basáñez MG, Coffeng LE, Cucunubá ZM, Dixon MA, Dyson L, Hampson K, Marks M, Medley GF, Pollington TM, Prada JM, Rock KS, Salje H, Toor J, Hollingsworth TD. How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases. Gates Open Res 2021; 5:112. [PMID: 35169682 PMCID: PMC8816801 DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13327.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Clark
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Wilma A. Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands
| | - María-Gloria Basáñez
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Luc E. Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands
| | - Zulma M. Cucunubá
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Matthew A. Dixon
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
- Schistosomiasis Control Initiative Foundation, London, SE11 5DP, UK
| | - Louise Dyson
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Katie Hampson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Michael Marks
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Graham F. Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Timothy M. Pollington
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Kat S. Rock
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EH, UK
| | - Jaspreet Toor
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
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39
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Clark J, Stolk WA, Basáñez MG, Coffeng LE, Cucunubá ZM, Dixon MA, Dyson L, Hampson K, Marks M, Medley GF, Pollington TM, Prada JM, Rock KS, Salje H, Toor J, Hollingsworth TD. How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases. Gates Open Res 2021; 5:112. [PMID: 35169682 PMCID: PMC8816801 DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13327.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/13/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Clark
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Wilma A. Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands
| | - María-Gloria Basáñez
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Luc E. Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands
| | - Zulma M. Cucunubá
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Matthew A. Dixon
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
- Schistosomiasis Control Initiative Foundation, London, SE11 5DP, UK
| | - Louise Dyson
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Katie Hampson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Michael Marks
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Graham F. Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Timothy M. Pollington
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Joaquin M. Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7AL, UK
| | - Kat S. Rock
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EH, UK
| | - Jaspreet Toor
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
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40
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Blumberg S, Borlase A, Prada JM, Solomon AW, Emerson P, Hooper PJ, Deiner MS, Amoah B, Hollingsworth D, Porco TC, Lietman TM. Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem. medRxiv 2020. [PMID: 33140063 PMCID: PMC7605574 DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.26.20219691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Background: Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. Methods: We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. Results: We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of one. We find that when the basic reproduction number is below one, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is above one, significant delays can occur. In most districts a year of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. Conclusion: If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Joaquin M Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, UK
| | - Anthony W Solomon
- Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Paul Emerson
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, USA
| | - Pamela J Hooper
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, USA
| | | | - Benjamin Amoah
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK
| | | | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, UCSF, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, UCSF, USA
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, UCSF, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, UCSF, USA.,Institute for Global Health Sciences, UCSF, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, UCSF, USA
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41
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Toor J, Adams ER, Aliee M, Amoah B, Anderson RM, Ayabina D, Bailey R, Basáñez MG, Blok DJ, Blumberg S, Borlase A, Rivera RC, Castaño MS, Chitnis N, Coffeng LE, Crump RE, Das A, Davis CN, Davis EL, Deiner MS, Diggle PJ, Fronterre C, Giardina F, Giorgi E, Graham M, Hamley JID, Huang CI, Kura K, Lietman TM, Lucas TCD, Malizia V, Medley GF, Meeyai A, Michael E, Porco TC, Prada JM, Rock KS, Le Rutte EA, Smith ME, Spencer SEF, Stolk WA, Touloupou P, Vasconcelos A, Vegvari C, de Vlas SJ, Walker M, Hollingsworth TD. Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation. Clin Infect Dis 2020; 72:1463-1466. [PMID: 32984870 PMCID: PMC7543306 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2020] [Accepted: 07/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaspreet Toor
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Emily R Adams
- Department of Tropical Disease Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Maryam Aliee
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom,Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Benjamin Amoah
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,The DeWorm3 Project, Natural History Museum, London, United Kingdom
| | - Diepreye Ayabina
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Robin Bailey
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Maria-Gloria Basáñez
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - David J Blok
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Seth Blumberg
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Anna Borlase
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Rocio Caja Rivera
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - María Soledad Castaño
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland,University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Nakul Chitnis
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland,University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Luc E Coffeng
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ronald E Crump
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom,Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom,The School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Aatreyee Das
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland,University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Christopher N Davis
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom,Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Emma L Davis
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Michael S Deiner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Peter J Diggle
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Claudio Fronterre
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Federica Giardina
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Emanuele Giorgi
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew Graham
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Jonathan I D Hamley
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ching-I Huang
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom,Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Klodeta Kura
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Tim C D Lucas
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Veronica Malizia
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Graham F Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Aronrag Meeyai
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Edwin Michael
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Kat S Rock
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom,Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Epke A Le Rutte
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands,Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland,University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Morgan E Smith
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Simon E F Spencer
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom,Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Wilma A Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andreia Vasconcelos
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Carolin Vegvari
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Martin Walker
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, United Kingdom
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, United Kingdom,Correspondence: T. D. Hollingsworth, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK ()
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42
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Prada JM, Davis EL, Touloupou P, Stolk WA, Kontoroupis P, Smith ME, Sharma S, Michael E, de Vlas SJ, Hollingsworth TD. Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold. J Infect Dis 2020; 221:S503-S509. [PMID: 31853554 PMCID: PMC7289550 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joaquin M Prada
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - Emma L Davis
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Headington, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Wilma A Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Periklis Kontoroupis
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Morgan E Smith
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana, USA
| | - Swarnali Sharma
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana, USA
| | - Edwin Michael
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana, USA
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Headington, Oxford, UK
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43
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Godwin W, Prada JM, Emerson P, Hooper PJ, Bakhtiari A, Deiner M, Porco TC, Mahmud H, Landskroner E, Hollingsworth TD, Medley GF, Pinsent A, Bailey R, Lietman TM, Oldenburg CE. Erratum to: Trachoma Prevalence After Discontinuation of Mass Azithromycin Distribution. J Infect Dis 2020; 221:2086. [PMID: 32215646 PMCID: PMC7289543 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- William Godwin
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Emerson
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - P J Hooper
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Ana Bakhtiari
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Michael Deiner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Hamidah Mahmud
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Emma Landskroner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - T Deirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Graham F Medley
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Amy Pinsent
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Robin Bailey
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Catherine E Oldenburg
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.,Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
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44
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Betson M, Alonte AJI, Ancog RC, Aquino AMO, Belizario VY, Bordado AMD, Clark J, Corales MCG, Dacuma MG, Divina BP, Dixon MA, Gourley SA, Jimenez JRD, Jones BP, Manalo SMP, Prada JM, van Vliet AHM, Whatley KCL, Paller VGV. Zoonotic transmission of intestinal helminths in southeast Asia: Implications for control and elimination. Adv Parasitol 2020; 108:47-131. [PMID: 32291086 DOI: 10.1016/bs.apar.2020.01.036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Intestinal helminths are extremely widespread and highly prevalent infections of humans, particularly in rural and poor urban areas of low and middle-income countries. These parasites have chronic and often insidious effects on human health and child development including abdominal problems, anaemia, stunting and wasting. Certain animals play a fundamental role in the transmission of many intestinal helminths to humans. However, the contribution of zoonotic transmission to the overall burden of human intestinal helminth infection and the relative importance of different animal reservoirs remains incomplete. Moreover, control programmes and transmission models for intestinal helminths often do not consider the role of zoonotic reservoirs of infection. Such reservoirs will become increasingly important as control is scaled up and there is a move towards interruption and even elimination of parasite transmission. With a focus on southeast Asia, and the Philippines in particular, this review summarises the major zoonotic intestinal helminths, risk factors for infection and highlights knowledge gaps related to their epidemiology and transmission. Various methodologies are discussed, including parasite genomics, mathematical modelling and socio-economic analysis, that could be employed to improve understanding of intestinal helminth spread, reservoir attribution and the burden associated with infection, as well as assess effectiveness of interventions. For sustainable control and ultimately elimination of intestinal helminths, there is a need to move beyond scheduled mass deworming and to consider animal and environmental reservoirs. A One Health approach to control of intestinal helminths is proposed, integrating interventions targeting humans, animals and the environment, including improved access to water, hygiene and sanitation. This will require coordination and collaboration across different sectors to achieve best health outcomes for all.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martha Betson
- University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom.
| | | | - Rico C Ancog
- University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines
| | | | | | | | - Jessica Clark
- University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Billy P Divina
- University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines
| | | | | | | | - Ben P Jones
- University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom
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45
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Stolk WA, Prada JM, Smith ME, Kontoroupis P, de Vos AS, Touloupou P, Irvine MA, Brown P, Subramanian S, Kloek M, Michael E, Hollingsworth TD, de Vlas SJ. Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models. Clin Infect Dis 2019; 66:S260-S266. [PMID: 29860286 PMCID: PMC5982795 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background With the 2020 target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) approaching, there is an urgent need to assess how long mass drug administration (MDA) programs with annual ivermectin + albendazole (IA) or diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) would still have to be continued, and how elimination can be accelerated. We addressed this using mathematical modeling. Methods We used 3 structurally different mathematical models for LF transmission (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, TRANSFIL) to simulate trends in microfilariae (mf) prevalence for a range of endemic settings, both for the current annual MDA strategy and alternative strategies, assessing the required duration to bring mf prevalence below the critical threshold of 1%. Results Three annual MDA rounds with IA or DA and good coverage (≥65%) are sufficient to reach the threshold in settings that are currently at mf prevalence <4%, but the required duration increases with increasing mf prevalence. Switching to biannual MDA or employing triple-drug therapy (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole [IDA]) could reduce program duration by about one-third. Optimization of coverage reduces the time to elimination and is particularly important for settings with a history of poorly implemented MDA (low coverage, high systematic noncompliance). Conclusions Modeling suggests that, in several settings, current annual MDA strategies will be insufficient to achieve the 2020 LF elimination targets, and programs could consider policy adjustment to accelerate, guided by recent monitoring and evaluation data. Biannual treatment and IDA hold promise in reducing program duration, provided that coverage is good, but their efficacy remains to be confirmed by more extensive field studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wilma A Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Morgan E Smith
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana
| | - Periklis Kontoroupis
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Anneke S de Vos
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Michael A Irvine
- University of British Columbia and British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Paul Brown
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Swaminathan Subramanian
- Vector Control Research Centre, Indian Council of Medical Research, Indira Nagar, Puducherry
| | - Marielle Kloek
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - E Michael
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana
| | | | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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46
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Stefan T, Matthews L, Prada JM, Mair C, Reeve R, Stear MJ. Divergent Allele Advantage Provides a Quantitative Model for Maintaining Alleles with a Wide Range of Intrinsic Merits. Genetics 2019; 212:553-564. [PMID: 30952668 PMCID: PMC6553829 DOI: 10.1534/genetics.119.302022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2019] [Accepted: 03/30/2019] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
The Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) is the most genetically diverse region of the genome in most vertebrates. Some form of balancing selection is necessary to account for the extreme diversity, but the precise mechanism of balancing selection is unknown. Due to the way MHC molecules determine immune recognition, overdominance (also referred to as heterozygote advantage) has been suggested as the main driving force behind this unrivalled diversity. However, both theoretical results and simulation models have shown that overdominance in its classical form cannot maintain large numbers of alleles unless all alleles confer unrealistically similar levels of fitness. There is increasing evidence that heterozygotes containing genetically divergent alleles allow for broader antigen presentation to immune cells, providing a selective mechanism for MHC polymorphism. By framing competing models of overdominance within a general framework, we show that a model based on Divergent Allele Advantage (DAA) provides a superior mechanism for maintaining alleles with a wide range of intrinsic merits, as intrinsically less-fit MHC alleles that are more divergent can survive under DAA. Specifically, our results demonstrate that a quantitative mechanism built from the DAA hypothesis is able to maintain polymorphism in the MHC. Applying such a model to both livestock breeding and conservation could provide a better way of identifying superior heterozygotes, and quantifying the advantages of genetic diversity at the MHC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thorsten Stefan
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
- Institute of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Louise Matthews
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquin M Prada
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Colette Mair
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Richard Reeve
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Michael J Stear
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
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47
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Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Takahashi S, Lessler J, Tatem AJ, Ferrari M. Demographics, epidemiology and the impact of vaccination campaigns in a measles-free world - Can elimination be maintained? Vaccine 2017; 35:1488-1493. [PMID: 28216186 PMCID: PMC5341736 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.02.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2016] [Revised: 01/26/2017] [Accepted: 02/03/2017] [Indexed: 12/09/2022]
Abstract
Introduction All six WHO regions currently have goals for measles elimination by 2020. Measles vaccination is delivered via routine immunization programmes, which in most sub-Saharan African countries reach children around 9 months of age, and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), which target a wider age range at multi-annual intervals. In the absence of endemic measles circulation, the proportion of individuals susceptible to measles will gradually increase through accumulation of new unvaccinated individuals in each birth cohort, increasing the risk of an epidemic. The impact of SIAs and the financial investment they require, depend on coverage and target age range. Materials and methods We evaluated the impact of target population age range for periodic SIAs, evaluating outcomes for two different levels of coverage, using a demographic and epidemiological model adapted to reflect populations in 4 sub-Saharan African countries. Results We found that a single SIA can maintain elimination over short time-scales, even with low routine coverage. However, maintaining elimination for more than a few years is difficult, even with large (high coverage/wide age range) recurrent SIAs, due to the build-up of susceptible individuals. Across the demographic and vaccination contexts investigated, expanding SIAs to target individuals over 10 years did not significantly reduce outbreak risk. Conclusions Elimination was not maintained in the contexts we evaluated without a second opportunity for vaccination. In the absence of an expanded routine program, SIAs provide a powerful option for providing this second dose. We show that a single high coverage SIA can deliver most key benefits in terms of maintaining elimination, with follow-up campaigns potentially requiring smaller investments. This makes post-campaign evaluation of coverage increasingly relevant to correctly assess future outbreak risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- J M Prada
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, USA.
| | - C J E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, USA; Office of Population Research, WWS, Princeton University, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, USA
| | - S Takahashi
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, USA
| | - J Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA
| | - A J Tatem
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, UK; Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - M Ferrari
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, USA
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48
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Atlija M, Prada JM, Gutiérrez-Gil B, Rojo-Vázquez FA, Stear MJ, Arranz JJ, Martínez-Valladares M. Implementation of an extended ZINB model in the study of low levels of natural gastrointestinal nematode infections in adult sheep. BMC Vet Res 2016; 12:97. [PMID: 27283535 PMCID: PMC4901511 DOI: 10.1186/s12917-016-0723-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2015] [Accepted: 06/03/2016] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In this study, two traits related with resistance to gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) were measured in 529 adult sheep: faecal egg count (FEC) and activity of immunoglobulin A in plasma (IgA). In dry years, FEC can be very low in semi-extensive systems, such as the one studied here, which makes identifying animals that are resistant or susceptible to infection a difficult task. A zero inflated negative binomial model (ZINB) model was used to calculate the extent of zero inflation for FEC; the model was extended to include information from the IgA responses. Results In this dataset, 64 % of animals had zero FEC while the ZINB model suggested that 38 % of sheep had not been recently infected with GIN. Therefore 26 % of sheep were predicted to be infected animals with egg counts that were zero or below the detection limit and likely to be relatively resistant to nematode infection. IgA activities of all animals were then used to decide which of the sheep with zero egg counts had been exposed and which sheep had not been recently exposed. Animals with zero FEC and high IgA activity were considered resistant while animals with zero FEC and low IgA activity were considered as not recently infected. For the animals considered as exposed to the infection, the correlations among the studied traits were estimated, and the influence of these traits on the discrimination between unexposed and infected animals was assessed. Conclusions The model presented here improved the detection of infected animals with zero FEC. The correlations calculated here will be useful in the development of a reliable index of GIN resistance that could be of assistance for the study of host resistance in studies based on natural infection, especially in adult sheep, and also the design of breeding programs aimed at increasing resistance to parasites. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-016-0723-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Atlija
- Departamento de Producción Animal, Universidad de León, Campus de Vegazana s/n, 24071, León, Spain
| | - J M Prada
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Bearsden Road, Glasgow, G61 1QH, UK. .,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA.
| | - B Gutiérrez-Gil
- Departamento de Producción Animal, Universidad de León, Campus de Vegazana s/n, 24071, León, Spain.,Instituto de Ganadería de Montaña, CSIC-ULE, 24346, Grulleros, León, Spain
| | - F A Rojo-Vázquez
- Instituto de Ganadería de Montaña, CSIC-ULE, 24346, Grulleros, León, Spain.,Departamento de Sanidad Animal, Universidad de León, Campus de Vegazana s/n, 24071, León, Spain
| | - M J Stear
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Bearsden Road, Glasgow, G61 1QH, UK
| | - J J Arranz
- Departamento de Producción Animal, Universidad de León, Campus de Vegazana s/n, 24071, León, Spain
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