An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Telomere length and brain imaging phenotypes in UK Biobank

Telomeres form protective caps at the ends of chromosomes, and their attrition is a marker of biological aging. Short telomeres are associated with an increased risk of neurological and psychiatric disorders including dementia. The mechanism underlying this risk is unclear, and may involve brain structure and function. However, the relationship between telomere length and neuroimaging markers is poorly characterized. Here we show that leucocyte telomere length (LTL) is associated with multi-modal MRI phenotypes in 31,661 UK Biobank participants. Longer LTL is associated with: i) larger global and subcortical grey matter volumes including the hippocampus, ii) lower T1-weighted grey-white tissue contrast in sensory cortices, iii) white-matter microstructure measures in corpus callosum and association fibres, iv) lower volume of white matter hyperintensities, and v) lower basal ganglia iron. Longer LTL was protective against certain related clinical manifestations, namely all-cause dementia (HR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96), but not stroke or Parkinson's disease. LTL is associated with multiple MRI endophenotypes of neurodegenerative disease, suggesting a pathway by which longer LTL may confer protective against dementia.