Linking habitat suitability to demography in a pond-breeding amphibian

Niche modelling and landscape genetics of the yellow-legged hornet (Vespa velutina): An integrative approach for evaluating central-marginal population dynamics in Europe

Genetic diversity is an important biological trait for a successful invasion. During the expansion across a new territory, an invasive species may face unprecedented ecological conditions that will determine its demography and genetic diversity. The first record of the yellow-legged hornet (Vespa velutina) in Europe dates back to 2004 in France, from where it has successfully spread through a large territory in the continent, including Italy, Spain and Portugal. Integrative approaches offer a powerful strategy to detect and understand patterns of genetic variation in central and marginal populations. Here, we have analysed the relationship between genetic diversity parameters inferred from 15 V. velutina nuclear DNA microsatellite loci, and geographical and environmental drivers, such as the distance to the introduction focus, environmental suitability and distance to native and invasive niche centroids. Our results revealed a central-marginal dynamic, where allelic richness decreased towards the edge of the expansion range. The low environmental suitability of the territories invaded by marginal populations could prevent a diverse population from establishing and reducing the genetic diversity in populations at the expansion edge. Moreover, Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis showed both geographical and environmental distances were influencing population genetic differentiation. This study highlights the importance of combining genetic analysis with geographical and environmental drivers to understand genetic trends of invasive species to new environment.

Context-dependent dispersal determines relatedness and genetic structure in a patchy amphibian population

Dispersal is a central process in ecology and evolution with far reaching consequences for the dynamics and genetics of spatially structured populations (SSPs). Individuals can adjust their decisions to disperse according to local fitness prospects, resulting in context-dependent dispersal. By determining dispersal rate, distance and direction, these individual-level decisions further modulate the demography, relatedness and genetic structure of SSPs. Here, we examined how context-dependent dispersal influences the dynamics and genetics of a great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) SSP. We collected capture-recapture data of 5564 individuals and genetic data of 950 individuals across an SSP in northern Germany. We added genetic data from six sites outside this SSP to assess genetic structure and gene flow at a regional level. Dispersal rates within the SSP were high but dispersal distances were short. Dispersal was context-dependent: individuals preferentially immigrated into high-quality ponds where breeding probabilities were higher. The studied SSP behaved like a patchy population, where subpopulations at each pond were demographically interdependent. High context-dependent dispersal led to weak but significant spatial genetic structure and relatedness within the SSP. At the regional level, a strong hierarchical genetic structure with very few first-generation migrants as well as low effective dispersal rates suggest the presence of independent demographic units. Overall, our study highlights the importance of habitat quality for driving context-dependent dispersal and therefore demography and genetic structure in SSPs. Limited capacity for long-distance dispersal seems to increase genetic structure within a population and leads to demographic isolation in anthropogenic landscapes.

Estimation of breeding probability can make monitoring data more revealing: a case study of amphibians

Monitoring programs serve to detect trends in the distribution and abundance of species. To do so, monitoring programs often use static state variables. Dynamic state variables that describe population dynamics might be more valuable because they allow for a mechanistic understanding of the processes that lead to population trends. We fit multistate occupancy models to data from a country-wide multispecies amphibian occupancy monitoring program and estimated occupancy and breeding probabilities. If breeding probabilities are determinants of occupancy dynamics, then they may serve in monitoring programs as state variables that describe dynamic processes. The results showed that breeding probabilities were low and that a large proportion of the populations had to be considered to be non-breeding populations (i.e., populations where adults are present but no breeding occurs). For some species, the majority of populations were non-breeding populations. We found that non-breeding populations have lower persistence probabilities than populations where breeding occurs. Breeding probabilities may thus explain trends in occupancy but they might also explain other ecological phenomena, such as the success of invasive species, which had high breeding probabilities. Signs of breeding, i.e., the presence of eggs and larvae, were often hard to detect. Importantly, non-breeding populations also had low detection probabilities, perhaps because they had lower abundances. We suggest that monitoring programs should invest more in the detection of life history stages indicative of breeding, and also into the detection of non-breeding populations. We conclude that breeding probability should be used as a state variable in monitoring programs because it can lead to deeper insights into the processes driving occupancy dynamics.

Conservation Genomics of the Threatened Western Spadefoot, Spea hammondii, in Urbanized Southern California

Populations of the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii) in southern California occur in one of the most urbanized and fragmented landscapes on the planet and have lost up to 80% of their native habitat. Orange County is one of the last strongholds for this pond-breeding amphibian in the region, and ongoing restoration efforts targeting S. hammondii have involved habitat protection and the construction of artificial breeding ponds. These efforts have successfully increased breeding activity, but genetic characterization of the populations, including estimates of effective population size and admixture between the gene pools of constructed artificial and natural ponds, has never been undertaken. Using thousands of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms, we characterized the population structure, genetic diversity, and genetic connectivity of spadefoots in Orange County to guide ongoing and future management efforts. We identified at least 2, and possibly 3 major genetic clusters, with additional substructure within clusters indicating that individual ponds are often genetically distinct. Estimates of landscape resistance suggest that ponds on either side of the Los Angeles Basin were likely interconnected historically, but intense urban development has rendered them essentially isolated, and the resulting risk of interruption to natural metapopulation dynamics appears to be high. Resistance surfaces show that the existing artificial ponds were well-placed and connected to natural populations by low-resistance corridors. Toad samples from all ponds (natural and artificial) returned extremely low estimates of effective population size, possibly due to a bottleneck caused by a recent multi-year drought. Management efforts should focus on maintaining gene flow among natural and artificial ponds by both assisted migration and construction of new ponds to bolster the existing pond network in the region.

Relationships between survival and habitat suitability of semi-aquatic mammals

Spatial distribution and habitat selection are integral to the study of animal ecology. Habitat selection may optimize the fitness of individuals. Hutchinsonian niche theory posits the fundamental niche of species would support the persistence or growth of populations. Although niche-based species distribution models (SDMs) and habitat suitability models (HSMs) such as maximum entropy (Maxent) have demonstrated fair to excellent predictive power, few studies have linked the prediction of HSMs to demographic rates. We aimed to test the prediction of Hutchinsonian niche theory that habitat suitability (i.e., likelihood of occurrence) would be positively related to survival of American beaver (Castor canadensis), a North American semi-aquatic, herbivorous, habitat generalist. We also tested the prediction of ideal free distribution that animal fitness, or its surrogate, is independent of habitat suitability at the equilibrium. We estimated beaver monthly survival probability using the Barker model and radio telemetry data collected in northern Alabama, United States from January 2011 to April 2012. A habitat suitability map was generated with Maxent for the entire study site using landscape variables derived from the 2011 National Land Cover Database (30-m resolution). We found an inverse relationship between habitat suitability index and beaver survival, contradicting the predictions of niche theory and ideal free distribution. Furthermore, four landscape variables selected by American beaver did not predict survival. The beaver population on our study site has been established for 20 or more years and, subsequently, may be approaching or have reached the carrying capacity. Maxent-predicted increases in habitat use and subsequent intraspecific competition may have reduced beaver survival. Habitat suitability-fitness relationships may be complex and, in part, contingent upon local animal abundance. Future studies of mechanistic SDMs incorporating local abundance and demographic rates are needed.

Drivers of amphibian population dynamics and asynchrony at local and regional scales

Identifying the drivers of population fluctuations in spatially distinct populations remains a significant challenge for ecologists. Whereas regional climatic factors may generate population synchrony (i.e. the Moran effect), local factors including the level of density dependence may reduce the level of synchrony. Although divergences in the scaling of population synchrony and spatial environmental variation have been observed, the regulatory factors that underlie such mismatches are poorly understood. Few previous studies have investigated how density-dependent processes and population-specific responses to weather variation influence spatial synchrony at both local and regional scales. We addressed this issue in a pond-breeding amphibian, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus. We used capture-recapture data collected through long-term surveys in five T. cristatus populations in Western Europe. In all populations-and subpopulations within metapopulations-population size, annual survival and recruitment fluctuated over time. Likewise, there was considerable variation in these demographic rates between populations and within metapopulations. These fluctuations and variations appear to be context-dependent and more related to site-specific characteristics than local or regional climatic drivers. We found a low level of demographic synchrony at both local and regional levels. Weather has weak and spatially variable effects on survival, recruitment and population growth rate. In contrast, density dependence was a common phenomenon (at least for population growth) in almost all populations and subpopulations. Our findings support the idea that the Moran effect is low in species where the population dynamics more closely depends on local factors (e.g. population density and habitat characteristics) than on large-scale environmental fluctuation (e.g. regional climatic variation). Such responses may have far-reaching consequences for the long-term viability of spatially structured populations and their ability to respond to large-scale climatic anomalies.

Remotely sensed forest understory density and nest predator occurrence interact to predict suitable breeding habitat and the occurrence of a resident boreal bird species

Habitat suitability models (HSM) based on remotely sensed data are useful tools in conservation work. However, they typically use species occurrence data rather than robust demographic variables, and their predictive power is rarely evaluated. These shortcomings can result in misleading guidance for conservation. Here, we develop and evaluate a HSM based on correlates of long-term breeding success of an open nest building boreal forest bird, the Siberian jay. In our study site in northern Sweden, nest failure of this permanent resident species is driven mainly by visually hunting corvids that are associated with human settlements. Parents rely on understory nesting cover as protection against these predators. Accordingly, our HSM includes a light detection and ranging (LiDAR) based metric of understory density around the nest and the distance of the nest to the closest human settlement to predict breeding success. It reveals that a high understory density 15-80 m around nests is associated with increased breeding success in territories close to settlements (<1.5 km). Farther away from human settlements breeding success is highest at nest sites with a more open understory providing a favorable warmer microclimate. We validated this HSM by comparing the predicted breeding success with landscape-wide census data on Siberian jay occurrence. The correlation between breeding success and occurrence was strong up to 40 km around the study site. However, the HSM appears to overestimate breeding success in regions with a milder climate and therefore higher corvid numbers. Our findings suggest that maintaining patches of small diameter trees may provide a cost-effective way to restore the breeding habitat for Siberian jays up to 1.5 km from human settlements. This distance is expected to increase in the warmer, southern, and coastal range of the Siberian jay where the presence of other corvids is to a lesser extent restricted to settlements.

Species-specific habitat preferences do not shape the structure of a crested newt hybrid zone (Triturus cristatus x T. carnifex)

Reproductive isolation barriers maintain the integrity of species by preventing interspecific gene flow. They involve temporal, habitat or behavioral isolation acting before fertilization, and postzygotic isolation manifested as hybrid mortality or sterility. One of the approaches of how to study reproductive isolation barriers is through the analysis of hybrid zones. In this paper, we describe the structure of a hybrid zone between two crested newt species (Triturus cristatus and T. carnifex) in the southern part of the Czech Republic using morphological, microsatellite, and mitochondrial (mtDNA) markers. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that the structure of the hybrid zone is maintained by species-specific habitat preferences. Comparing the genetic structure of populations with geographical and ecological parameters, we found that the hybrid zone was structured primarily geographically, with T. cristatus-like populations occurring in the northeast and T. carnifex-like populations in the southwest. Despite T. cristatus tending to occur in deeper ponds and T. carnifex on localities with more shading, the effect of both ecological parameters on the structure of the zone was minimal. Next, we corroborated that T. carnifex individuals and some hybrids possess mtDNA of T. dobrogicus, whose nuclear background was not detected in the studied hybrid zone. Hybridization between T. carnifex and T. dobrogicus (resulting in unidirectional mtDNA introgression) had to predate subsequent formation of the hybrid zone between T. cristatus and T. carnifex. Populations of crested newts in the southern part of the Czech Republic thus represent a genetic mosaic of nuclear and mitochondrial genomes of three species.

Context-dependent dispersal, public information, and heterospecific attraction in newts

Dispersal is one of the main processes that determine community structure. Individuals make dispersal decisions according to environmental and/or social cues that reflect the fitness prospects in a given patch. The presence and abundance of heterospecifics within the same ecological guild, and/or their breeding success, may act as public information that influences movement decisions. To date, most studies investigating the role of heterospecific attraction have focused on habitat choice, using both experimental and correlational approaches. The present study is the first to examine how long-term variation in heterospecific density in breeding patches may affect dispersal patterns in spatially structured populations. We investigate how the dispersal decisions of the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) are related to the variable density of two other newt species, the alpine newt (Ichthyosaura alpestris) and the palmate newt (Lissotriton helveticus). To examine this issue, we used capture-recapture data collected in an experimental pond network over a 20-year period. The results revealed that the great crested newt's dispersal is context dependent and is affected by variation in heterospecific density: individuals were less likely to emigrate from ponds with high heterospecific density and were more likely to immigrate to ponds with high heterospecific density. These findings suggest that individuals adjust their dispersal decisions at least partly based on public information provided by heterospecifics. This mechanism may play a critical role in the dynamics of spatially structured populations and community functioning.

Seasonal variation in environmental DNA detection in sediment and water samples

The use of aquatic environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect the presence of species depends on the seasonal activity of the species in the sampled habitat. eDNA may persist in sediments for longer than it does in water, and analysing sediment could potentially extend the seasonal window for species assessment. Using the great crested newt as a model, we compare how detection probability changes across the seasons in eDNA samples collected from both pond water and pond sediments. Detection of both aquatic and sedimentary eDNA varied through the year, peaking in the summer (July), with its lowest point in the winter (January): in all seasons, detection probability of eDNA from water exceeded that from sediment. Detection probability of eDNA also varied between study areas, and according to great crested newt habitat suitability and sediment type. As aquatic and sedimentary eDNA show the same seasonal fluctuations, the patterns observed in both sample types likely reflect current or recent presence of the target species. However, given the low detection probabilities found in the autumn and winter we would not recommend using either aquatic or sedimentary eDNA for year-round sampling without further refinement and testing of the methods.

Does forest extent affect salamander survival? Evidence from a long-term demographic study of a tropical newt

Forest loss has been associated with reduced survival in many vertebrates, and previous research on amphibians has mostly focused on effects at early life stages. Paramesotriton hongkongensis is a tropical newt that breeds in streams but spends up to 10 months per year in terrestrial habitats. Populations are threatened by habitat degradation and collection for the pet trade, but the cryptic terrestrial lifestyle of this newt has limited our understanding of its population ecology, which inhibits development of a species-specific conservation plan. We conducted an eight-year (2007-2014) mark-recapture study on four P. hongkongensis populations in Hong Kong and used these data to evaluate relationships between forest cover, body size, and rainfall on survival and to estimate population sizes. Hong Kong has been subjected to repeated historic territory-wide deforestation, and thus, we wanted to determine whether there was a link between forest extent as a proxy of habitat quality and newt demography. Annual survival was positively associated with forest cover within core habitat of all populations and negatively related to body size. Mean annual survival (~60%) was similar to that of other stream-dwelling amphibians, but varied among years and declined substantially in 2012-2013, perhaps due to illegal collection. Despite the link between forest extent and survival, population sizes declined at the most forested site by 40% and increased by 104% and 134% at two others. Forest protection and consequential secondary succession during recent decades in Hong Kong may have been responsible for persistence of P. hongkongensis populations.

Habitat suitability and demography, a time-dependent relationship

The habitat suitability index, which reflects spatial variability in species occurrence probability, has been shown to exhibit various contrasting relationships with local demographic performances (survival, productivity) in several species. One proposed explanation for these discrepancies is that the link between the habitat suitability index and demography is influenced by density-dependent, temporally variable processes. Based on the survival rates of more than 3,000 nests monitored over 12 years in the North African Houbara Bustard, we investigated whether the habitat suitability index computed over the species breeding range is related to nest survival throughout the breeding season, accounting for variation in meteorological conditions. We found that the relationship between the habitat suitability index and nest survival progressively changes along the breeding season and that this intra-annual variation is consistent between years. Our results support the hypothesis that variation in space use occurs intra-annually and that biotic interactions throughout the breeding season strongly influence the habitat suitability index-demography relationship.

Testing the validity of a commonly-used habitat suitability index at the edge of a species’ range: great crested newt Triturus cristatus in Scotland

Habitat Suitability Indices (HSI) are widely used in conservation and in pre-development surveying. We tested a commonly-used HSI to assess its effectiveness at predicting the presence of a European protected species, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus, at the edge of its range. This HSI is used to understand species’ conservation needs, and in assessing the need for, and designing, mitigation. Given the cost of surveying to developers, it is essential that they can have confidence in the index used in targeting work and in Environmental Impact Assessments. We found that nine of the ten factors which make up the HSI are robust in the region, even in a disjunct population believed to have been isolated for around 3000 years. However, we propose modification of the geographic factor, based upon an improved knowledge of the species’ distribution since the HSI was originally devised.