Fluctuations in waist circumference increase diabetes risk: a 4-year cohort study in 61,587 older adults

Obesity- and lipid-related indices as a predictor of type 2 diabetes in a national cohort study

Objective

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains a major and widespread public health concern throughout the world. The prevalence of T2DM in the elderly has risen to the top of the list of public health concerns. In this study, obesity- and lipid-related indices were used to predict T2DM in middle-aged and elderly Chinese adults.

Methods

The data came from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), including 7902 middle-aged and elderly participants aged 45 years or above. The study assessed the association of obesity- and lipid-related indices and T2DM by measuring 13 indicators, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference(WC), waist-height ratio (WHtR), conicity index(CI), visceral adiposity index (VAI), Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI), lipid accumulation product (LAP), a body shape index (ABSI), body roundness index (BRI), triglyceride glucose index (TyG-index) and its correlation index (TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, TyG-WHtR). The association of 13 obesity- and lipid-related indices with T2DM was investigated by binary logistic regression. Additionally, the predictive anthropometric index was evaluated, and the ideal cut-off value was established using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and area under the curve (AUC).

Results

The study included 7902 participants, of whom 3638(46.04) and 4264(53.96) were male and female. The prevalence of T2DM in mid-aged and old adults in China was 9.02% in males and 9.15% in females. All the above 13 indicators show a modest predictive power (AUC>0.5), which was significant for predicting T2DM in adults (middle-aged and elderly people) in China (P<0.05). The results revealed that TyG-WHtR [AUC =0.600, 95%CI: 0.566-0.634] in males and in females [AUC =0.664, 95%CI: 0.636-0.691] was the best predictor of T2DM (P<0.05).

Conclusion

Most obesity- and lipid-related indices have important value in predicting T2DM. Our results can provide measures for the early identification of T2DM in mid-aged and elderly Chinese to reduce the prevalence of T2DM and improve health.

Differential Impact of Obesity on the Risk of Diabetes Development in Two Age Groups: Analysis from the National Health Screening Program

BACKGRUOUND

The effect of obesity on the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in different age groups remains unclear. We assessed the impact of obesity on the development of DM for two age groups (40-year-old, middle age; 66-year-old, older adults) in the Korean population.

METHODS

We analyzed Korean National Health Insurance Service data of 4,145,321 Korean adults with 40- and 66-year-old age without DM, between 2009 and 2014. Participants were followed up until 2017 or until the diagnosis of DM. We assessed the risk of DM based on the body mass index and waist circumference of the participants. Multiple confounding factors were adjusted.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 5.6 years. The association of general and abdominal obesity with the risk of DM development was stronger in the 40-year-old group (general obesity: hazard ratio [HR], 3.566, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.512 to 3.622; abdominal obesity: HR, 3.231; 95% CI, 3.184 to 3.278) than in the 66-year-old group (general obesity: HR, 1.739; 95% CI, 1.719 to 1.759; abdominal obesity: HR, 1.799; 95% CI, 1.778 to 1.820). In the 66-year-old group, abdominal obesity had a stronger association with the development of DM as compared to general obesity. In the 40-year-old group, general obesity had a stronger association with the risk of DM development than abdominal obesity.

CONCLUSION

The influence of general and abdominal obesity on the development of DM differed according to age. In older adults, abdominal obesity had a stronger association with DM development than general obesity.