Establishment of prognostic models for adenocarcinoma of oesophagogastric junction patients with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: a real-world study

Diagnostic value of dual-source, dual-energy computed tomography combined with the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for discriminating gastric signet ring cell from mixed signet ring cell and non-signet ring cell carcinomas

PURPOSE

To explore the diagnostic value of dual-source computed tomography (DSCT) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for differentiating gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC) from mixed SRC (mSRC) and non-SRC (nSRC).

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent DSCT between August 2019 and June 2021 at our Hospital. The iodine concentration in the venous phase (ICvp), standardized iodine concentration (NICVP), and the slope of the energy spectrum curve (kVP) were extracted from DSCT data. NLR was determined from laboratory results. DSCT (including ICVP, NICVP, and kVP) and combination (including DSCT model and NLR) models were established based on the multinomial logistic regression analysis. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the diagnostic value.

RESULTS

A total of 155 patients (SRC [n = 45, aged 61.22 ± 11.4 years], mSRC [n = 60, aged 61.09 ± 12.7 years], and nSRC [n = 50, aged 67.66 ± 8.76 years]) were included. There were significant differences in NLR, ICVP, NICVP, and kVP among the SRC, mSRC, and nSRC groups (all P < 0.001). The AUC of the combination model for SRC vs. mSRC + nSRC was 0.964 (95% CI: 0.923-1.000), with a sensitivity of 98.3% and a specificity of 86.7%, higher than with DSCT (AUC: 0.959, 95% CI: 0.919-0.998, sensitivity: 90.0%, specificity: 89.9%) or NLR (AUC: 0.670, 95% CI: 0.577-0.768, sensitivity: 62.2%, specificity: 61.8%).

CONCLUSION

DSCT combined with NLR showed high diagnostic efficacy in differentiating SRC from mSRC and nSRC.

Nomograms to predict tumor regression grade (TRG) and ypTNM staging in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer receiving neoadjuvant therapy

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant therapy (NT) has increased survival rates for patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer (EC), but estimating the impact of NT treatment prior to surgery is still very difficult.

METHODS

A retrospective study of the clinical information of 150 patients with locally advanced EC who got NT at Qilu Hospital of Shandong University between June 2018 and June 2023. Patients were randomized into training and internal validation groups at a 3:1 ratio. Furthermore, an external validation cohort comprised 38 patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy at Qianfoshan Hospital in the Shandong Province between June 2021 and June 2023. Independent risk factors were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression (forward stepwise regression). Predictive models and dynamic web nomograms were developed by integrating these risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 188 patients with locally advanced EC were enrolled, of whom 118 achieved stage I of neoadjuvant pathologic TNM (ypTNM) after receiving NT and 129 achieved grades 0-1 in the tumor regression grade (TRG). Logistic regression analysis identified five independent predictors of TRG grades 0-1: pulmonary function tests (PFT), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), triglyceride (TG) levels, squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-Ag) levels, and combination immunotherapy. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the training, internal validation, and external validation groups were 0.87, 0.75, and 0.80, respectively. Meanwhile, two independent predictors of stage I of ypTNM were identified: prealbumin (PA) and SCC antigen. The areas under the ROC curves for the training, internal validation, and external validation groups were 0.78, 0.67, and 0.70, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for both predictive models showed excellent calibration, with well-fitted calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves (CIC) have demonstrated that nomograms are of clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

The nomograms performed well in predicting the likelihood of stage I of ypTNM and TRG grade 0-1 after NT in patients with locally advanced EC. It helps thoracic surgeons to predict the sensitivity of patients to NT before surgery, which enables precise treatment of patients with locally advanced EC.

Long-term nutrition in patients candidate to neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatments

To improve outcomes, to decrease the rate of local recurrence and development of distant metastases neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies are employed in cancer patients in forms of radiation, chemo-, endocrine-, targeted-, and immunotherapy or their combination. Nutrition therapy plays important role in all phases of the cancer journey. From neoadjuvant therapy to prehabilitation, early postoperative nutrition, and long-term nutrition care during the adjuvant phase and survivorship determines the survival and quality of life of cancer patients. During the neoadjuvant phase patients may be in poor nutritional condition which can be aggravated by the applied oncological treatment. Beside this apparent threat this period also gives an excellent opportunity to maintain or even improve the nutritional status of the patients by nutrition therapy. After surgery the burdening effects of the operation may jeopardize the execution of adjuvant therapy. After early postoperative feeding a long-term nutrition strategy should be developed for cancer patients in order to avoid nutritional deterioration during the usually lengthy postoperative therapy. In this narrative review we discuss how preoperative nutritional status and medical nutrition therapy influence the results of surgery and after the operation what is the available evidence about nutritional status and outcome and the potentials to influence them by nutrition therapy.

Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to construct and validate a competing risk nomogram model to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma (ESRCC) between 2010 and 2015 were abstracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We performed the competing risk model to select significant variables to build a competing risk nomogram, which was used to estimate 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS probability. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, Brier score, and decision curve analysis were performed in the internal validation.

RESULTS

A total of 564 patients with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The competing risk nomogram identified 4 prognostic variables, involving the gender, lung metastases, liver metastases, and receiving surgery. The C indexes of nomogram were 0.61, 0.75, and 0.70, respectively for 5-year, 3-year, and 1-year CSS prediction. The calibration plots displayed high consistency. The Brier scores and decision curve analysis respectively favored good prediction ability and clinical utility of the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

A competing risk nomogram for esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma was successfully constructed and internally validated. This model is expected to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS, and help oncologists and pathologists in clinical decision making and health care management for esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma patients.

Prognostic impact of sarcopenia in patients with locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Background

Few studies have evaluated the significance of sarcopenia in predicting the outcomes of patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG), especially those who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT). We aimed to identify the sarcopenic status and its impact on the outcomes of patients with locally advanced AEG who received NCRT followed by radical surgery or systemic therapy.

Materials and methods

Patients with T3-4N+M0 AEG with accessible abdominal computed tomography (CT) before and after NCRT were retrospectively analyzed. Body composition parameters, particularly the skeletal muscle index (SMI), were assessed using a CT-based method, and sarcopenia was defined using a predetermined SMI cutoff value. Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent prognostic factors. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was carried out, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to test the prognostic accuracy of different factors.

Results

A total of 63 patients were enrolled, 65.1 and 79.4% of whom developed pre- and post-NCRT sarcopenia, respectively. Patients with pre-NCRT sarcopenia had lower radical surgery rates (70.7 vs. 95.5%, p = 0.047) than those without sarcopenia; however, sarcopenic status did not affect other short-term outcomes, including treatment-related toxicity and efficacy. Pre-NCRT sarcopenia was identified as an independent predictive factor for poor overall survival (OS) [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 6.053; p = 0.002] and progression-free survival (PFS) (adjusted HR, 2.873; p = 0.031). Compared with nutritional indices such as the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002, weight loss during NCRT, and post-NCRT sarcopenia, pre-NCRT sarcopenia was regarded as the best predictive index for the 5-year OS (AUC = 0.735) and PFS rates (AUC = 0.770).

Conclusion

Pre-NCRT sarcopenia may be an independent predictive factor for OS and PFS rates in patients with locally advanced AEG receiving multimodal treatment.

Real-World Outcomes of FLOT versus CROSS Regimens for Patients with Oesophagogastric Cancers

Introduction

Treatment of oesophageal (OC), gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ), and gastric cancer (GC) includes either neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Oesophageal Cancer Followed by Surgery Study (CROSS) for OC or GOJ or perioperative 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, and docetaxel (FLOT) for OC, GOJ, and GC adenocarcinomas. This study aims to describe the real-world outcomes of patients with GC, GOJ, and OC treated with FLOT or CROSS and identify variables associated with efficacy through exploratory analysis. We also aimed to evaluate the comparison of FLOT and CROSS for the treatment of OC and GOJ adenocarcinomas.

Methods

This is a retrospective observational study of patients with locally advanced OC, GOJ, or GC treated with FLOT or CROSS between January 2015 and June 2021 in 5 cancer centres across Sydney, Australia. Long-rank test was used to compare survival estimated between subgroups. Hazard ratios for univariate and multivariate analyses were estimated with Cox proportional regression.

Results

The study included 168 patients. The 24-month relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) for FLOT were 59% and 69%, respectively. The median RFS was 29.6 months and median OS was not reached. For CROSS, the 24-month RFS and OS were 55% and 63% with a median RFS and OS of 28.5 and 40.2 months, respectively. There was no difference in OS and RFS between the treatments. FLOT was less tolerable than CROSS with more dose reductions, treatment discontinuation, and clinically relevant grade 3 and 4 toxicity. Neutrophil lymphocyte ratio was associated with survival for both treatments.

Conclusion

Similar efficacy outcomes were seen in this real-world population compared to the clinical trials for FLOT and CROSS.

The predictive value of peripheral blood cells and lymphocyte subsets in oesophageal squamous cell cancer patients with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is a standard treatment option for patients with stage III oesophageal cancer. Approximately 30% of oesophageal cancer patients will have a pathological complete response (pCR) after nCRT. However, available clinical methods cannot accurately predict pCR for patients. We aimed to find more indicators that could be used to predict the pathological response to nCRT.

METHOD

A total of 84 patients with stage III oesophageal squamous cell cancer were enrolled in this study. Ten patients failed to have surgery as a result of progressive disease (PD). Among the patients who underwent surgery, 32 patients had a pathologic complete response (pCR), whereas 42 patients showed no or partial response (npCR) after nCRT. Routine blood test results and lymphocyte subset assessments before and after nCRT were retrospectively analysed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify independent predictors of the clinical curative effect of nCRT. Eventually, nomograms were established for predicting the PD and pCR rates.

RESULTS

The numbers of lymphocytes, B lymphocytes, T lymphocytes, Th lymphocytes, Ts lymphocytes, and NK cells and the percentages of B lymphocytes and NK cells were decreased significantly after nCRT (P < 0.0001), whereas the percentages of T lymphocytes and Ts lymphocytes increased (P < 0.0001). Univariate analysis showed that age, the length of the lesion, the level of haemoglobin before nCRT, and the amount of change in haemoglobin were related to PD, and the percentage of NK cells after nCRT was related to pCR. Multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated that the length of the lesion, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) before nCRT, and the amount of change in haemoglobin were independent predictors of PD, whereas the percentage of NK cells after nCRT was an independent predictor of pCR.

CONCLUSION

Lymphocyte subsets changed dramatically during nCRT, and these changes together with baseline and posttreatment lymphocyte subsets have predictive value in determining the response to nCRT for oesophageal cancer.

Sex differences in cancer-specific survival for locally advanced esophageal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: A population-based analysis

Objective

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is the recommended standard treatment for locally advanced esophageal cancer (LA-EC). This study aimed to determine whether sex makes a difference in cancer-specific survival (CSS) and construct a novel nomogram model to predict CSS for LA-EC after nCRT based on the SEER database.

Methods

Patients coded by 04–15 were identified from the SEER database. Patients with systemic treatment and radiotherapy before surgery were defined as nCRT. We further divided this population into a training group and a verification group at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate cox analyses were applied to determine the prognostic risk factors based on the training cohort, and then the Nomogram model was established. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the predictive ability of the model. We used the calibration curve to evaluate the consistency between the predicted status and actual status and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the clinical value. We used X-tile software to determine the best cut-off value of nomogram scores and divided the population into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was applied to compare the CSS.

Results

A total of 2096 LA-EC patients were included for further analysis, with 1,540 in the training cohort and 656 in the validation group. Male (HR: 1.29, 95% CI, 1.04 −1.58), T stage, N stage, and M stage were identified as independent risk factors of CSS based on the training cohort. A Nomogram model was constructed to predict the 3-, 5- and 7-years CSS. ROC curve and AUC confirmed that this nomogram has median discrimination ability. The calibration curve showed good agreement between predicted status and actual status. The DCA curves confirmed the clinical value. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that patients in the high-risk subgroup had poorer CSS in both the training cohort and validation cohort (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Male patients had poorer CSS in LA-EC patients after nCRT. A nomogram model composed of sex, T stage, N stage, and M stage was constructed to identify the high-risk population and provide a personalized follow-up plan.