Validity of modified early warning, Glasgow Blatchford, and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores in predicting prognosis of patients presenting to emergency department with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Performance of Six Clinical Physiological Scoring Systems in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly and Very Elderly Patients with Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Emergency Department

Background and Objectives: The aim of this study is to compare the performance of six clinical physiological-based scores, including the pre-endoscopy Rockall score, shock index (SI), age shock index (age SI), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), in predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly and very elderly patients in the emergency department (ED) with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). Materials and Methods: Patients older than 65 years who visited the ED with a clinical diagnosis of AUGIB were enrolled prospectively from July 2016 to July 2021. The six scores were calculated and compared with in-hospital mortality. Results: A total of 336 patients were recruited, of whom 40 died. There is a significant difference between the patients in the mortality group and survival group in terms of the six scoring systems. MEWS had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.82). A subgroup analysis was performed for a total of 180 very elderly patients (i.e., older than 75 years), of whom 27 died. MEWS also had the best predictive performance in this subgroup (AUC, 0.82). Conclusions: This simple, rapid, and obtainable-by-the-bed parameter could assist emergency physicians in risk stratification and decision making for this vulnerable group.

Prediction of in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: cross-validation of several risk scoring systems

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify the clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic features associated with in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), focusing on cross-validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (RS), and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index (CSMCPI) scoring systems.

METHODS

Our prospective cross-sectional study included 156 patients with AUGIB. Several statistical approaches were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the scoring systems.

RESULTS

All three scoring systems were able to accurately predict in-hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] > 0.9); however, the multiple logistic model separated the presence of hemodynamic instability (state of shock) and the CSMCPI as the only significant predictive risk factors. In compliance with the overall results, the CSMCPI was consistently found to be superior to the other two systems (highest AUC, highest sensitivity and specificity, highest positive and negative predictive values, highest positive likelihood ratio, lowest negative likelihood ratio, and 1-unit increase in CSMCPI associated with 6.3 times higher odds of mortality), outperforming the GBS and full RS.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest consideration of the CSMCPI as a readily available and reliable tool for accurately predicting in-hospital mortality after AUGIB, thus providing an essential backbone in clinical decision-making.

COMPARISON OF NON-ENDOSCOPIC SCORES FOR THE PREDICTION OF OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS OF UPPER GASTROINTESTINAL BLEED IN AN EMERGENCY OF A TERTIARY CARE REFERRAL HOSPITAL: A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

BACKGROUND

Traditionally peptic ulcer disease was the most common cause of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleed but with the changing epidemiology; other etiologies of UGI bleed are emerging. Many scores have been described for predicting outcomes and the need for intervention in UGI bleed but prospective comparison among them is scarce.

OBJECTIVE

This study was planned to determine the etiological pattern of UGI bleed and to compare Glasgow Blatchford score, Pre-Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) as predictors of outcome.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study 268 patients of UGI bleed were enrolled and followed up for 8 weeks. Glasgow Blatchford score, Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and MEWS were calculated for each patient, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve for each score was compared.

RESULTS

The most common etiology for UGI bleed were gastroesophageal varices 150 (63.55%) followed by peptic ulcer disease 29 (12.28%) and mucosal erosive disease 27 (11.44%). Total 38 (15.26%) patients had re-bleed and 71 (28.5%) patients died. Overall, 126 (47%) patients required blood component transfusion, 25 (9.3%) patients required mechanical ventilation and 2 (0.74%) patients required surgical intervention. Glasgow Blatchford score was the best in predicting the need for transfusion (cut off - 10, AUC-ROC= 0.678). Whereas AIMS65 with a score of ≥2 was best in predicting re-bleed (AUC-ROC=0.626) and mortality (AUC-ROC=0.725).

CONCLUSION

Gastrointestinal bleed was most commonly of variceal origin at our tertiary referral center in Northern India. AIMS65 was the best & simplest score with a score of ≥2 for predicting re-bleed and mortality.

An improved modified early warning score that incorporates the abdomen score for identifying multiple traumatic injury severity

Background

Rapid identification of trauma severity is essential for the timely triage of multiple trauma patients. Tools such as the modified early warning score (MEWS) are used for determining injury severity. Although the conventional MEWS is a good predictor of mortality, its performance assessing injury severity is moderate. This study hypothesized that adding an injury site severity-related score (e.g., abdomen score) may enhance the capability of the MEWS for identifying severe trauma.

Method

To validate the hypothesis, we propose an improved modified early warning score called MEWS-A, which incorporates an injury site-specific severity-related abdomen score to MEWS. The utility of MEWS and MEWS-A were retrospectively evaluated and compared for identifying trauma severity in adult multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department.

Results

We included 1,230 eligible multiple trauma patients and divided them into minor and severe trauma groups based on the injury severity score. Results of logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses showed that the MEWS-A had a higher area under the ROC curve (AUC: 0.81 95% CI [0.78-0.83]) than did the MEWS (AUC: 0.77 95% CI [0.74-0.79]), indicating that the MEWS-A is superior to the MEWS in identifying severe trauma. The optimal MEWS-A cut-off score is 4, with a specificity of 0.93 and a sensitivity of 0.54. MEWS-A ≥ 4 can be used as a protocol for decision-making in the emergency department.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that while the conventional MEWS is sufficient for predicting mortality risk, adding an injury site-specific score (e.g., abdomen score) can enhance its performance in determining injury severity in multiple trauma patients.

Efficacy of Chronomodulated Chemotherapy for Palliation of Hematemesis in Inoperable Gastric Cancer: A Single-Institutional Retrospective Study

Context:

Aside abdominal discomfort and pain, upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) significantly disgraces the quality of life (QoL), especially in inoperable gastric cancer patients. Although, in early stages, it is infrequent and often ignored, but in advanced stages, its aggressiveness often deteriorates patient's hemoglobin (Hb) level and performing status.

Aim:

The aim of this study is to correlate the change in (1) the frequency of episodes of UGIB, (2) its severity in terms of Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) grade for UGIB, and (3) Hb level with the successful completion of successive cycles of palliative chemotherapy where it becomes invariably the only modality to palliate the cancer disease.

Setting and Design:

This single-institutional retrospective observational study included seventy gastric carcinoma patients with a chief complaint of frequent hematemesis. They were divided according to the cause behind inoperability or irresectability: (1) Metastatic disease, (2) locally advanced irresectable disease, (3) uncontrolled comorbidities, (4) poor GC (PGC), and (5) refused to give surgical consent.

Subjects and Methods:

Following baseline evaluation and prechemotherapy workups, patients were subjected to three-weekly chronomodulated modified EOX regimen. Relevant parameters, i.e., (1) average episodes per-week (AEP) score, (2) Hb, and (3) average CTCAE grade value for UGIB were recorded after every cycle.

Results:

At 12-week follow-up, there was a significant decrease in mean AEP score from baseline (from 2.6691 ± 0.7047 to 1.5033 ± 0.6272) for the entire cohort (P < 0.001). Maximum benefit in terms of mean Hb (increase by 1.0737% above baseline) took place for PGC group (P < 0.001). Mean CTCAE grade value for the entire cohort decreased from baseline by 0.6428, which was statistically significant with a P < 0.001.

Conclusions:

PGC group was maximally benefited considering all three parameters. Though surgery defines the mainstay of treatment for gastric carcinoma, yet in inoperable cases, only chronomodulated chemotherapy significantly affects the severity of UGIB and thus may improve QoL.

British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG)-led multisociety consensus care bundle for the early clinical management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Medical care bundles improve standards of care and patient outcomes. Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) is a common medical emergency which has been consistently associated with suboptimal care. We aimed to develop a multisociety care bundle centred on the early management of AUGIB. Commissioned by the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG), a UK multisociety task force was assembled to produce an evidence-based and consensus-based care bundle detailing key interventions to be performed within 24 hours of presentation with AUGIB. A modified Delphi process was conducted with stakeholder representation from BSG, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, Society for Acute Medicine and the National Blood Transfusion Service of the UK. A formal literature search was conducted and international AUGIB guidelines reviewed. Evidence was appraised using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation tool and statements were formulated and subjected to anonymous electronic voting to achieve consensus. Accepted statements were eligible for incorporation into the final bundle after a separate round of voting. The final version of the care bundle was reviewed by the BSG Clinical Services and Standards Committee and approved by all stakeholder groups. Consensus was reached on 19 statements; these culminated in 14 corresponding care bundle items, contained within 6 management domains: Recognition, Resuscitation, Risk assessment, Rx (Treatment), Refer and Review. A multisociety care bundle for AUGIB has been developed to facilitate timely delivery of evidence-based interventions and drive quality improvement and patient outcomes in AUGIB.

Comparison of computed tomography findings with clinical risks factors for endoscopic therapy in upper gastrointestinal bleeding cases

Several risk scoring systems exist for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The clinical Rockall score (clinical RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) are major risk scores that consider only clinical data. Computed tomography (CT) findings are equivocal in non-variceal UGIB. We compared CT findings with clinical data to predict mortality, rebleeding and need for endoscopic therapy in non-variceal UGIB patients. This retrospective, single-center study included 386 patients admitted to our emergency department with diagnosis of non-variceal UGIB by urgent endoscopy between January 2009 and March 2015. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to investigate CT findings and risk factors derived from clinical data. CT findings could not significantly predict mortality and rebleeding in non-variceal UGIB patients. However, upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage in CT findings better predicted the need for endoscopic therapy than clinical data. The adjusted odds ratios were 10.10 (95% CI 5.01-20.40) for clinical RS and 10.70 (95% CI 5.08-22.70) for the GBS. UGI hemorrhage in CT findings could predict the need for endoscopic therapy in non-variceal UGIB patients in our emergency department. CT findings as well as risk score systems may be useful for predicting the need for endoscopic therapy.

Performance of Three Scoring Systems in Predicting Massive Transfusion in Patients with Unstable Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

PURPOSE

After trauma and surgery, upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the most common condition that can require massive transfusion (MT). The present study aimed to analyze and compare the prognostic performance of the Glasgow-Blatchford (GB), pre-endoscopy Rockall (PER), and modified early warning (MEW) scores for predicting MT in patients with unstable UGIB.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective observational study included patients with UGIB from March 2016 to February 2018. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was performed to examine the prognostic performance of the GB, PER, and MEW scoring systems. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for MT, after adjusting for relevant covariates. The primary outcome was MT.

RESULTS

Of the 484 included patients with unstable UGIB, 19 (3.9%) received an MT. The areas under the curves (AUCs) of the GB, PER, and MEW scores for MT were 0.577 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.531-0.621], 0.570 (95% CI, 0.525-0.615), and 0.767 (95% CI, 0.727-0.804), respectively. The AUC of the MEW score was significantly different from those of the GB and PER scores. In multivariate analysis, MEW score was independently associated with MT in patients with unstable UGIB (odds ratio, 1.495; 95% CI, 1.100-2.033; p=0.010).

CONCLUSION

In unstable UGIB patients, MEW score had the best prognostic performance for MT among three scoring systems.

A risk scoring model based on vital signs and laboratory data predicting transfer to the intensive care unit of patients admitted to gastroenterology wards

PURPOSE

To compare the ability of a score based on vital signs and laboratory data with that of the modified early warning score (MEWS) to predict ICU transfer of patients with gastrointestinal disorders.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Consecutive events triggering medical emergency team activation in adult patients admitted to the gastroenterology wards of the Asan Medical Center were reviewed. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors predicting transfer to the ICU. Gastrointestinal early warning score (EWS-GI) was calculated as the sum of simplified regression weights (SRW).

RESULTS

Of the 1219 included patients, 468 (38%) were transferred to the ICU. Multivariate analysis identified heart rate≥105bpm (SRW 1), respiratory rate≥26bpm (SRW 2), ACDU (Alert, Confused, Drowsy, Unresponsive) score≥1 (SRW 2), SpO₂/FiO₂ ratio<240 (SRW 2), creatinine ≥2.0mg/dL (SRW 2), total bilirubin ≥9.0mg/dL (SRW 2), prothrombin time/international normalized ratio (INR) ≥1.5 (SRW 2), and lactate ≥3.0mmol/L (SRW 2) for inclusion in EWS-GI. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the EWS-GI was larger than that of MEWS (0.76 vs. 0.64; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

EWS-GI may predict ICU transfer among patients admitted to gastroenterology wards. The EWS-GI should be prospectively validated.

International prospective observational study of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage: Does weekend admission affect outcome?

Introduction

Out of hours admissions have higher mortality for many conditions but upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage studies have produced variable outcomes.

Methods

Prospective study of 12 months consecutive admissions of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from four international high volume centres. Admission period (weekdays, weeknights or weekends), demographics, haemodynamic parameters, laboratory results, endoscopy findings, further procedures and 30-day mortality were recorded. Five upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage risk scores were calculated.

Results

2118 patients, 60% male, median age 66 years were studied. Compared with patients presenting on weekdays, patients presenting at weekends had no significant differences in comorbidity, pulse, systolic BP, risk scores, frequency of peptic ulcers or varices. Those presenting on weekdays had lower haemoglobin (p = 0.007) and were more likely to have a normal endoscopy (p < 0.01). Time to endoscopy was less for weeknight presentation (p = 0.001). Sixty-seven per cent of those presenting on weekdays, 75% on weeknights and 60% at weekends had endoscopy within 24 h. Transfusion requirements, need for endoscopic therapy or surgery/embolization, rebleeding rates (6.1%) and mortality (7.2%) did not differ with presentation time.

Conclusion

This multi-centre international study in large centres found no difference in demographics, comorbidity or haemodynamic stability and no increase in mortality for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage out of hours.

Comparison of three scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performances of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS) and AIMS65 in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB).

METHODS

This study enrolled 320 consecutive patients with AUGIB. Patients at high and low risks of developing adverse clinical outcomes (rebleeding, the need of clinical intervention and death) were categorized according to the GBS, mGBS and AIMS65 scoring systems. The outcome of the patients were the occurrences of adverse clinical outcomes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of three scoring systems were compared.

RESULTS

Irrespective of the systems used, the high-risk groups showed higher rates of rebleeding, intervention and death compared with the low-risk groups (P < 0.05). For the prediction of rebleeding, AIMS65 (AUROC 0.735, 95% CI 0.667-0.802) performed significantly better than GBS (AUROC 0.672, 95% CI 0.597-0.747; P < 0.01) and mGBS (AUROC 0.677, 95% CI 0.602-0.753; P < 0.01). For the prediction of interventions, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.769, 95% CI 0.668-0.870; mGBS: AUROC 0.745, 95% CI 0.643-0.847; AIMS65: AUROC 0.746, 95% CI 0.640-0.851). For the prediction of in-hospital mortality, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.796, 95% CI 0.694-0.898; mGBS: AUROC 0.803, 95% CI 0.703-0.904; AIMS65: AUROC 0.786, 95% CI 0.670-0.903).

CONCLUSIONS

The three scoring systems are reliable and accurate in predicting the rates of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in AUGIB. However, AIMS65 outperforms GBS and mGBS in predicting rebleeding.

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Background

Various risk scoring systems have been recently developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The two commonly used scoring systems include full Rockall score (RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). Bleeding scores were assessed in terms of prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB.

Patients and methods

Two hundred patients (age >18 years) with obvious symptoms of UGIB in the emergency department of Rasoul Akram Hospital were enrolled. Full RS and GBS were calculated. We followed the patients for records of rebleeding and 1-month mortality. A receiver operating characteristic curve by using areas under the curve (AUCs) was used to statistically identify the best cutoff point.

Results

Eighteen patients were excluded from the study due to failure to follow-up. Rebleeding and mortality rate were 9.34% (n=17) and 11.53% (n=21), respectively. Regarding 1-month mortality, full RS was better than GBS (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P=0.021). GBS was more accurate in terms of detecting transfusion need (AUC, 0.757 versus 0.528; P=0.001), rebleeding rate (AUC, 0.722 versus 0.520; P=0.002), intensive care unit admission rate (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P=0.021), and endoscopic intervention rate (AUC, 0.771 versus 0.650; P<0.001).

Conclusion

We found the full RS system is better for 1-month mortality prediction while GBS system is better for prediction of other outcomes.

Change ratio of hemoglobin has predictive value for upper gastrointestinal bleeding

The present study aimed to identify novel predictors of upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding by assessing change ratios of blood test variables. Records of 1,023 patients (431 men and 592 women) who underwent endoscopy between October 2014 and September 2015 at the National Hospital Organization Shimoshizu Hospital (Yotsukaido, Japan) were retrospectively analyzed. Patients whose blood test variables for the time-point of endoscopy and three months previously were available were enrolled and subsequently categorized into a group with and another one without upper GI bleeding (n=32 and 84, respectively), and the respective change ratios were calculated for each group. One-way analysis of variance revealed that in patients with upper GI bleeding, change ratios of white blood cell count and alkaline phosphatase were significantly higher than those in patients without, while change ratios of hemoglobin (Hb), total protein and albumin were significantly reduced. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the change ratio of Hb was significantly correlated with upper GI bleeding. Receiver-operator characteristic analysis revealed that an 18.7% reduction of Hb was the threshold value for the prediction of upper GI bleeding. In conclusion, the present study revealed that a ≥18.7% reduction in Hb over three months has predictive value for upper GI bleeding.

Low hemoglobin levels are associated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding can be fatal. Blood test variables were reviewed in search of threshold values to detect the presence of occult upper GI bleeding. The records of 1,023 patients who underwent endoscopy at the National Hospital Organization Shimoshizu Hospital from October 2014, to September 2015, were retrospectively reviewed. Of those, 95 had upper GI bleeding. One-way analysis of variance was applied to blood test variables comparing patients with and without upper GI bleeding. Logistic regression analysis was applied to detect the association of blood test parameters with upper GI bleeding, and receiver-operator characteristics were applied to establish threshold values. White blood cell count (WBC), platelet (Plt) count, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels were higher, and hemoglobin (Hb) and albumin (Alb) levels were lower in patients with upper GI bleeding. Logistic regression analysis showed that low Hb was significantly associated with upper GI bleeding and a Hb value of 10.8 g/dl was established as the threshold for the diagnosis. In patients with upper GI bleeding, WBC, Plt count, and BUN levels were higher and Hb and Alb levels were reduced. Hb at 10.8 g/dl was established as a threshold value to detect upper GI bleeding.

Resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta for uncontrollable nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Background

Although resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) in various clinical settings was found to successfully elevate central blood pressure in hemorrhagic shock, this intervention is associated with high mortality and may represent a last-ditch option for trauma patients. We conducted a retrospective study of patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) who underwent REBOA to identify the effectiveness of REBOA and reviewed published literatures.

Methods

REBOA were performed by trained acute care physicians in the emergency room and intensive care unit. The deployment of balloon catheters was positioned using ultrasonography guidance. Collected data included clinical characteristics, hemorrhagic severity, blood cultures, metabolic values, blood transfusions, REBOA-related complications and mortality. A literature search using PUBMED to include “aortic occlusion” and “gastrointestinal bleeding” was conducted.

Results

REBOA was attempted in eight patients among 140 patients with UGIB and median age was 66 years. Systolic blood pressure significantly increased after REBOA (66 ± 20 vs. 117 ± 45 mmHg, p < 0.01) and the total occlusion time of REBOA was 80 ± 48 min. Strong positive correlations were found between total occlusion time of REBOA and lactate concentration (Spearman’s r=0.77), clinical Rockwall score (Spearman’s r=0.80), and age (Spearman’s r=0.88), respectively.

Conclusion

REBOA can be performed with a high degree of technical success and is effective at improving hemodynamic in patients with UGIB. Correlations between total occlusion time and high lactate levels, clinical Rockall score, and age may be important for successful use of REBOA.