Presentations of adult septic patients in the prehospital setting as recorded by emergency medical services: a mixed methods analysis

Clinical Timing-Sequence Warning Models for Serious Bacterial Infections in Adults Based on Machine Learning: Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Serious bacterial infections (SBIs) are linked to unplanned hospital admissions and a high mortality rate. The early identification of SBIs is crucial in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to establish and validate clinically applicable models designed to identify SBIs in patients with infective fever.

METHODS

Clinical data from 945 patients with infective fever, encompassing demographic and laboratory indicators, were retrospectively collected from a 2200-bed teaching hospital between January 2013 and December 2020. The data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 7:3. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Boruta, Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), and recursive feature elimination, were utilized for feature filtering. The selected features were subsequently used to construct models predicting SBIs using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with 5-fold cross-validation. Performance metrics, including the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other relevant parameters, were used to assess model performance. Considering both model performance and clinical needs, 2 clinical timing-sequence warning models were ultimately confirmed using LR analysis. The corresponding predictive nomograms were then plotted for clinical use. Moreover, a physician, blinded to the study, collected additional data from the same center involving 164 patients during 2021. The nomograms developed in the study were then applied in clinical practice to further validate their clinical utility.

RESULTS

In total, 69.9% (661/945) of the patients developed SBIs. Age, hemoglobin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, fibrinogen, and C-reactive protein levels were identified as important features by at least two ML algorithms. Considering the collection sequence of these indicators and clinical demands, 2 timing-sequence models predicting the SBI risk were constructed accordingly: the early admission model (model 1) and the model within 24 hours of admission (model 2). LR demonstrated better stability than RF and XGBoost in both models and performed the best in model 2, with an AUC, accuracy, and sensitivity of 0.780 (95% CI 0.720-841), 0.754 (95% CI 0.698-804), and 0.776 (95% CI 0.711-832), respectively. XGBoost had an advantage over LR in AUC (0.708, 95% CI 0.641-775 vs 0.686, 95% CI 0.617-754), while RF achieved better accuracy (0.729, 95% CI 0.673-780) and sensitivity (0.790, 95% CI 0.728-844) than the other 2 approaches in model 1. Two SBI-risk prediction nomograms were developed for clinical use based on LR, and they exhibited good performance with an accuracy of 0.707 and 0.750 and a sensitivity of 0.729 and 0.927 in clinical application.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical timing-sequence warning models demonstrated efficacy in predicting SBIs in patients suspected of having infective fever and in clinical application, suggesting good potential in clinical decision-making. Nevertheless, additional prospective and multicenter studies are necessary to further confirm their clinical utility.

The onset of sepsis as experienced by patients and family members: A qualitative interview study

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To explore the onset of sepsis based on patients' and family members' experiences.

BACKGROUND

Knowledge about the onset of sepsis is limited among patients and their families, which makes early recognition of sepsis difficult. Previous studies argue that their stories are important to recognising sepsis and reduced suffering and mortality.

DESIGN

A descriptive design with a qualitative approach was used.

METHODS

In total, 29 patients and family members participated in 24 interviews with open-ended questions, including five dyadic and 19 individual interviews. The interviews were conducted during 2021, and participants were recruited from a sepsis group on social media. A thematic analysis based on descriptive phenomenology was performed. The study followed the COREQ checklist.

FINDINGS

Two themes emerged from the experiences: (1) When health changes into something unknown, including the two subthemes; Bodily symptoms and signs being vague but still tangible and Feelings of uncertainty, and (2) Turning points when warnings signs are deemed as serious, including the two subthemes Passing borders when feeling out of control and Difficulties understanding the seriousness.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients' and family members' stories of the onset of sepsis indicate that symptoms and signs appeared insidiously and then noticeably worsen. The symptoms and signs seemed not be attributed to sepsis; instead, there was uncertainty about what the symptoms and signs meant. It was mainly family members who possibly understood the seriousness of the disease.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION AND PATIENT CARE

Patients' experiences of their symptoms and signs and family members' unique knowledge of the patient, indicate that healthcare professionals should listen and try to understand what the patient and family members are telling and take their concerns seriously. How the condition appears, and family members' concerns are important pieces of the assessment to recognise patients with sepsis.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Patients and family members contributed to the data collected.

A pre-hospital mixed methods systematic review protocol

Introduction

Mixed methods research, a methodology entailing the integration of qualitative and quantitative data within a single study, offers researchers the ability to investigate complex processes and systems in health and healthcare. The collective strength gained through the data combination can provide an enhanced understanding of research problems, providing an ideal solution to understanding complex clinical issues in a range of settings. In pre-hospital practice, where often uncontrollable variables and environmental considerations increase healthcare complexity, mixed methods has emerged as a valuable approach to research.

Aims

Given the exponential growth of pre-hospital mixed methods research since the publication of our first systematic review in 2014, we aim to provide an update. Our review will explore how mixed methods is utilised in pre-hospital research and identify what standards of reporting are achieved.

Methods

This systematic review update will search MEDLINE, CINAHL Complete, Embase and Scopus bibliographic databases from 1 January 2012 to 15 March 2023, using an updated pre-hospital search strategy. Study screening will be performed in duplicate. Articles reported in English, explicitly stating the use of 'mixed methods' in the pre-hospital ambulance setting, including helicopter emergency medical services and community first-responder services, will be included. Data related to underpinning philosophy or theoretical framework, rationale for utilising mixed methods, background of the corresponding author, mode of data integration, model of publication and adherence to reporting standards, utilising the good reporting of a mixed methods study (GRAMMS) guidelines, will be extracted and analysed. All extracted data from study articles will be summarised in a table, allowing analysis of included studies against specified criteria.

The Emerging Role of Ferroptosis in Sepsis, Opportunity or Challenge?

Sepsis is a syndrome in multi-organ dysfunction triggered by a deleterious immunological reaction of the body to a condition caused by infection, surgery, or trauma. Currently, sepsis is thought to be primarily associated with abnormal immune responses resulting in organ microcirculatory disturbances, cellular mitochondrial dysfunction, and induced cell death, although the exact pathogenesis of sepsis is still inconclusive. In recent years, the role of abnormal metabolism of trace nutrients in the pathogenesis of sepsis has been investigated. Ferroptosis is a type of cell death that relies on iron and is characterized by unique morphological, biochemical, and genetic features. Unlike other forms of cell death, such as autophagy, apoptosis, necrosis, and pyroptosis, ferroptosis is primarily driven by lipid peroxidation. Ferroptosis cells may be immunogenic, amplify inflammatory responses, cause more cell death, and ultimately induce multi-organ failure. An increasing number of studies have indicated the significance of ferroptosis in sepsis and its role in reducing inflammation. The effectiveness of sepsis treatment has been demonstrated by the use of drugs that specifically target molecules associated with the ferroptosis pathway, including ferroptosis inhibitors. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies investigating the multi-organ dysfunction caused by ferroptosis in sepsis. This article presents a summary and evaluation of recent progress in the role of ferroptosis through molecularly regulated mechanisms and its potential mechanisms of action in the multi-organ dysfunction associated with sepsis. It also discusses the current challenges and prospects in understanding the connection between sepsis and ferroptosis, and proposes innovative ideas and strategies for the treatment of sepsis.

Predictors of outcomes in emergency department patients with suspected infections and without fulfillment of the sepsis criteria

BACKGROUND

Data on patient characteristics and determinants of serious outcomes for acutely admitted patients with infections who do not fulfill the sepsis criteria are sparse. The study aimed to characterize acutely admitted emergency department (ED) patients with infections and a composite outcome of in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit without fulfilling the criteria for sepsis and to examine predictors of the composite outcome.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of data from a prospective observational study of patients with suspected bacterial infection admitted to the ED between October 1, 2017 and March 31, 2018. A National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) ≥ 5 within the first 4 h in the ED was assumed to represent a sepsis-like condition with a high risk for the composite endpoint. Patients who achieved the composite outcome were grouped according to fulfillment of the NEWS2 ≥ 5 criteria. We used logistic regression analysis to estimate the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the composite endpoint among patients with either NEWS2  < 5 (NEWS2-) or NEWS2  ≥ 5 (NEWS2+).

RESULTS

A total of 2055 patients with a median age of 73 years were included. Of these, 198 (9.6%) achieved the composite endpoint, including 59 (29.8%) NEWS2- and 139 (70.2%) NEWS2+ patients, respectively. Diabetes (OR 2.23;1.23-4.0), a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2 (OR 2.57;1.37-4.79), and a Do-not-attempt-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation order (DNACPR) on admission (OR 3.70;1.75-7.79) were independent predictive variables for the composite endpoint in NEWS2- patients (goodness-of-fit test P = 0.291; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model (AUROC) = 0.72). The regression model for NEWS2+ patients revealed that a SOFA score ≥ 2 (OR 2.79; 1.59-4.91), hypothermia (OR 2.48;1.30-4.75), and DNACPR order on admission were predictive variables for the composite endpoint (goodness-of-fit test P = 0.62; AUROC for the model = 0.70).

CONCLUSION

Approximately one-third of the patients with infections and serious outcomes during hospitalization did not meet the NEWS2 threshold for likely sepsis. Our study identified factors with independent predictive values for the development of serious outcomes that should be tested in future prediction models.

Effect of prehospital transportation on 24-h fluid volume, a post hoc analysis of a multicenter, prospective, observational study on fluid volumes in patients with suspected infection

Introduction

Infections, including sepsis, are leading causes of death and fluid administration is part of the treatment. The optimal fluid therapy remains controversial. If the patient is transported by Emergency Medical Services (EMS), fluids can be initiated during transportation, which may result in increased overall fluid administration and fluid overload, which may be harmful. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of EMS transportation on 24-h fluid administration in patients with suspected infection.

Methods

This is a post hoc study of a prospective, multicenter, observational study, conducted in three Danish Emergency Departments (EDs), 20 January-2 March 2020, aiming at describing fluid administration in patients with suspected infection. Patients were stratified into the groups: simple infection or sepsis, in accordance with SEPSIS-3-guidelines. The primary outcome of the current study was 24-h total fluid volume (oral and intravenous) stratified by transportation mode to the EDs.

Main results

Total 24-h fluids were registered for 734 patients. Patients with simple infection or sepsis arriving by EMS (n = 388, 54%) received mean 3,774 ml (standard deviation [SD]: 1900) and non-EMS received 3,627 ml (SD: 1568); mean difference (MD) was 303 ml [95% CI: 32; 573] adjusted for age, site, and total SOFA-score. Patients brought in by EMS received more intravenous fluids (MD: 621 ml [95% CI: 378; 864]) and less oral fluids (MD: -474 ml [95% CI: -616; -333]) than non-EMS patients.

Conclusion

Patients transported by EMS received more intravenous fluids and less oral fluids but overall, more fluid in total in the first 24-h than non-EMS after adjusting for age, site and SOFA-score.

Presentation of the septic patient to the emergency department with respect to age and sex - a retrospective cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

It is challenging to identify sepsis in the emergency department, in part due to the non-specific presentation of septic patients. Current clinical sepsis screening tools rely on vital signs but many patients present with near normal vital signs and are therefore not identified as septic. This suggests that variables, e.g. signs and symptoms, need to be included to improve sepsis detection in the emergency department. Our hypothesis was that the presentation of sepsis differs based age and sex. The potential differences in presentation could be used to apply to future sepsis screening tools. The aim was to analyze the prevalence of keywords reflecting the presentation of septic patients in the emergency department in relation to age and sex.

METHOD

Retrospective cross-sectional study. Keywords reflecting sepsis presentation to the emergency department were quantified and compared between age categories and the sex. 479 patients admitted to the emergency department of Södersjukhuset, Stockholm during 2013 and discharged with an ICD-10 code consistent with sepsis were included. We adjusted for multiple comparisons by applying Bonferroni-adjusted significance levels for all comparisons.

RESULT

"Pain" and "risk factors for sepsis" were significantly more common among patients younger than 65 years as compared with those 75 years and older: (n = 87/137; 63.5% vs n = 99/240; 41.3%, P-value < 0.000) and (n = 74/137; 54.0% vs 55/240; 22.9%, P-value < 0.000) respectively. "Risk factors for sepsis" was also significantly more common among patients between 65 and 74 years as compared with those 75 years and older: (n = 43/102; 42.2% vs 55/240; 22.9%, P-value < 0.000). "Pain" and "gastrointestinal symptoms" were significantly more common among women as compared with men: (n = 128/224; 57.1% vs n = 102/255; 40.0%, P-value < 0.000) and (n = 82/244; 36.6% vs n = 55/255; 21.6%, P-value < 0.000) respectively.

CONCLUSION

The keywords "pain" and "risk factors for sepsis" were more common among younger patients and "pain" and "gastrointestinal symptoms" were more common among women. However, most keywords had a similar prevalence irrespective of age and sex. The results could potentially be used to augment sepsis screening tools or clinical decision tools.

Characteristics of low acuity prehospital emergency patients with 48-h mortality, an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Every year an emergency medical technician or paramedic treats and transports up to several hundred patients. Only some patients are acutely seriously ill, and a few of these show only discrete signs and symptoms of their condition. This study aims to describe patients who died within 48 h of being admitted non-emergently to hospital by ambulance, examine the extent to which critically ill patients are recognized prehospitally, and identify clinical warning signs that might be frequently overlooked.

METHOD

Registry based follow-up study on patients receiving an ambulance from the Copenhagen EMS in 2018. Data was included regarding the dispatch of the ambulance from the emergency services disposition system, ICD-10 hospital admission diagnoses from the National Patient Register, 48-h mortality from the Central Person Register and assessment and treatment in the ambulance by reviewing the electronic pre-hospital patient record.

RESULTS

In 2018 2279 patients died within 48 h after contact with the EMS, 435 cases met inclusion criteria. The patients' median age was 83 years (IQR 75-90), and 374 (86.0%) had one or more underlying serious medical conditions. A triage category based on vitals and presentation was not assigned by the EMS in 286 (68.9%) cases, of which 38 (13.3%) would meet red and 126 (44.1%) orange criteria. For 409 (94.0%) patients, it was estimated that death within 48 h could not have been avoided prehospitally, and for 26 (6.0%) patients it was uncertain. We found 27 patients with acute aortic syndrome as admission diagnosis, of these nine (33.3%) had not been admitted urgently to a hospital with vascular surgery specialty.

CONCLUSIONS

It was estimated that death within 48 h could generally not be avoided prehospitally. The patients' median age was 83 years, and they often had serious comorbidity. Patients whose vital parameters met red or orange triage criteria were to a lesser degree triaged prehospitally, compared to patients in the yellow or green categories. Patients with acute aortic syndrome were not recognized by EMS 33.3% of the time.

Association between variables measured in the ambulance and in-hospital mortality among adult patients with and without infection: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients presenting with infection to the ambulance are common, but risk factors for poor outcome are not known. The primary aim of the current study was to study the association between variables measured in the ambulance and mortality among adult patients with and without infection. The secondary aim was to study the association between these variables and mortality in a subgroup of patients who developed sepsis within 36 h.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of 553 ambulance patients with, and 318 patients without infection, performed in Stockholm during 2017-2018. The association between 21 variables (8 keywords related to medical history, 6 vital signs, 4 blood tests, and age, gender, comorbidity) and in-hospital mortality was analysed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among patients with infection, inability of the patient to answer questions relating to certain symptoms such as pain and gastrointestinal symptoms was significantly associated with mortality in univariable analysis, in addition to oxygen saturation < 94%, heart rate > 110 /min, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 15, soluble urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor (suPAR) 4.0-7.9 ng/mL, suPAR ≥ 8.0 ng/mL and a Charlson comorbidity score ≥ 5. suPAR ≥ 8.0 ng/mL remained significant in multivariable analysis (OR 25.4; 95% CI, 3.2-199.8). Among patients without infection, suPAR ≥ 8.0 ng/mL and a Charlson comorbidity score ≥ 5 were significantly associated with mortality in univariable analysis, while suPAR ≥ 8.0 ng/mL remained significant in multivariable analysis (OR 56.1; 95% CI, 4.5-700.0). Among patients who developed sepsis, inability to answer questions relating to pain remained significant in multivariable analysis (OR 13.2; 95% CI, 2.2-78.9), in addition to suPAR ≥ 8.0 ng/mL (OR 16.1; 95% CI, 2.0-128.6).

CONCLUSIONS

suPAR ≥ 8.0 ng/mL was associated with mortality in patients presenting to the ambulance both with and without infection and in those who developed sepsis. Furthermore, the inability of the ambulance patient with an infection to answer questions relating to specific symptoms was associated with a surprisingly high mortality. These results suggest that suPAR and medical history are valuable tools with which to identify patients at risk of poor outcome in the ambulance and could potentially signal the need of enhanced attention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03249597. Registered 15 August 2017-Retrospectively registered, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03249597 .

Keywords reflecting sepsis presentation based on mode of emergency department arrival: a retrospective cross-sectional study

Background

Current sepsis screening tools are predominantly based on vital signs. However, patients with serious infections frequently present with normal vital signs and there has been an increased interest to include other variables such as symptoms in screening tools to detect sepsis. The majority of patients with sepsis arrive to the emergency department by emergency medical services. Our hypothesis was that the presentation of sepsis, including symptoms, may differ between patients arriving to the emergency department by emergency medical services and patients arriving by other means. This information is of interest to adapt future sepsis screening tools to the population in which they will be implemented. The aim of the current study was to compare the prevalence of keywords reflecting the clinical presentation of sepsis based on mode of arrival among septic patients presenting to the emergency department.

Methods

Retrospective cross-sectional study of 479 adult septic patients. Keywords reflecting sepsis presentation upon emergency department arrival were quantified and analyzed based on mode of arrival, i.e., by emergency medical services or by other means. We adjusted for multiple comparisons by applying Bonferroni-adjusted significance levels for all comparisons. Adjustments for age, gender, and sepsis severity were performed by stratification. All patients were admitted to the emergency department of Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, and discharged with an ICD-10 code compatible with sepsis between January 1, and December 31, 2013.

Results

“Abnormal breathing” (51.8% vs 20.5%, p value < 0.001), “abnormal circulation” (38.4% vs 21.3%, p value < 0.001), “acute altered mental status” (31.1% vs 13.1%, p value < 0.001), and “decreased mobility” (26.1% vs 10.7%, p value < 0.001) were more common among patients arriving by emergency medical services, while “pain” (71.3% vs 40.1%, p value < 0.001) and “risk factors for sepsis” (50.8% vs 30.8%, p value < 0.001) were more common among patients arriving by other means.

Conclusions

The distribution of most keywords related to sepsis presentation was similar irrespective of mode of arrival; however, some differences were present. This information may be useful in clinical decision tools or sepsis screening tools.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12245-021-00396-z.

Evaluation of Incident 7-Day Infection and Sepsis Hospitalizations in an Integrated Health System

RATIONALE

Pre-hospital opportunities to predict infection and sepsis hospitalization may exist, but little is known about their incidence following common healthcare encounters.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the incidence and timing of infection and sepsis hospitalization within 7 days of living hospital discharge, emergency department discharge, and ambulatory visit settings.

METHODS

In each setting, we identified patients in clinical strata based on the presence of infection and severity of illness. We estimated number needed to evaluate values with hypothetical predictive model operating characteristics.

RESULTS

We identified 97,614,228 encounters including 1,117,702 (1.1 %) hospital discharges, 4,635,517 (4.7%) emergency department discharges, and 91,861,009 (94.1 %) ambulatory visits between 2012 and 2017. The incidence of 7-day infection hospitalization varied from 37,140 (3.3%) following inpatient discharge, 50,315 (1.1%) following emergency department discharge, and 277,034 (0.3%) following ambulatory visits. The incidence of 7-day infection hospitalization was increased for inpatient discharges with high readmission risk (10.0%), emergency department discharges with increased acute or chronic severity of illness (3.5% and 4.7%, respectively), and ambulatory visits with acute infection (0.7%). The timing of 7-day infection and sepsis hospitalizations differed across settings with an early rise following ambulatory visits, a later peak following emergency department discharges, and a delayed peak following inpatient discharge. Theoretical number needed to evaluate values varied by strata, but following hospital and emergency department discharge, were as low as 15 to 25.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident 7-day infection and sepsis hospitalizations following encounters in routine healthcare settings were surprisingly common and may be amenable to clinical predictive models.

Predicting mortality among septic patients presenting to the emergency department-a cross sectional analysis using machine learning

Background

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition, causing almost one fifth of all deaths worldwide. The aim of the current study was to identify variables predictive of 7- and 30-day mortality among variables reflective of the presentation of septic patients arriving to the emergency department (ED) using machine learning.

Methods

Retrospective cross-sectional design, including all patients arriving to the ED at Södersjukhuset in Sweden during 2013 and discharged with an International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 code corresponding to sepsis. All predictions were made using a Balanced Random Forest Classifier and 91 variables reflecting ED presentation. An exhaustive search was used to remove unnecessary variables in the final model. A 10-fold cross validation was performed and the accuracy was described using the mean value of the following: AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, positive LR and negative LR.

Results

The study population included 445 septic patients, randomised to a training (n = 356, 80%) and a validation set (n = 89, 20%). The six most important variables for predicting 7-day mortality were: “fever”, “abnormal verbal response”, “low saturation”, “arrival by emergency medical services (EMS)”, “abnormal behaviour or level of consciousness” and “chills”. The model including these variables had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.80–0.86). The final model predicting 30-day mortality used similar six variables, however, including “breathing difficulties” instead of “abnormal behaviour or level of consciousness”. This model achieved an AUC = 0.80 (CI 95%, 0.78–0.82).

Conclusions

The results suggest that six specific variables were predictive of 7- and 30-day mortality with good accuracy which suggests that these symptoms, observations and mode of arrival may be important components to include along with vital signs in a future prediction tool of mortality among septic patients presenting to the ED. In addition, the Random Forests appears to be a suitable machine learning method on which to build future studies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-021-00475-7.

Assessment of patients with suspected sepsis in ambulance services: a qualitative interview study

Background

The initial care of patients with sepsis is commonly performed by ambulance clinicians (ACs). Early identification, care and treatment are vital for patients with sepsis to avoid adverse outcomes. However, knowledge about how patients with sepsis are assessed in ambulance services (AS) by AC is limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the meaning of ACs’ lived experiences in assessing patients suspected of having sepsis.

Methods

A descriptive design with a qualitative approach was used. Fourteen ACs from three Swedish ambulance organizations participated in dyadic and individual semistructured interviews. A thematic analysis based on descriptive phenomenology was performed.

Results

AC experiences were grouped into four themes: (1) being influenced by previous experience; (2) searching for clues to the severity of the patient’s condition; (3) feeling confident when signs and symptoms were obvious; and (4) needing health-care professionals for support and consultation.

Conclusions

This study indicates that several factors are important to assessments. ACs needed to engage in an ongoing search for information, discuss the cases with colleagues and reconsider the assessment throughout the entire ambulance mission. A reflective and open stance based on professional knowledge could contribute to recognizing patients with sepsis.

High fever or hypotension predicts non-hypoglycemia in patients with impaired consciousness in prehospital settings

Aim

To evaluate whether vital signs can predict whether hypoglycemia can be eliminated as the cause of impaired consciousness in prehospital settings.

Methods

We extracted the data of patients who underwent blood glucose measurements by paramedics in Kobe City, Japan from April 2015 to March 2019. We used receiver operating characteristic curves and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the validity of the vital signs in distinguishing hypoglycemia. We also calculated stratum-specific likelihood ratios to examine the threshold at which hypoglycemia becomes less likely for each vital sign.

Results

Of the 1,791 patients, 1,242 were eligible for analysis. Hypoglycemia was observed in 324 patients (26.1%). Significant differences in each vital sign were noted between the hypoglycemic and non-hypoglycemic groups. Body temperature was moderately accurate in differentiating between the two groups (AUC, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.74). Furthermore, in patients with systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg and body temperature ≥38°C, it was unlikely that hypoglycemia caused impaired consciousness (stratum-specific likelihood ratios 0.12 and 0.15; 95% confidence intervals, 0.05-0.25 and 0.06-0.35, respectively).

Conclusion

In the prehospital assessment of patients with impaired consciousness, high fever or hypotension was helpful in differentiating between hypoglycemia and non-hypoglycemia. In particular, body temperature ≥38°C or systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg indicated a low likelihood of hypoglycemia. A validation study is needed to confirm the findings in this study.

The Presentation, Pace, and Profile of Infection and Sepsis Patients Hospitalized Through the Emergency Department: An Exploratory Analysis

To characterize the signs and symptoms of sepsis, compare them with those from simple infection and other emergent conditions and evaluate their association with hospital outcomes.

Design Setting Participants and INTERVENTION

A multicenter, retrospective cohort study of 408,377 patients hospitalized through the emergency department from 2012 to 2017 with sepsis, suspected infection, heart failure, or stroke. Infected patients were identified based on Sepsis-3 criteria, whereas noninfected patients were identified through diagnosis codes.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Signs and symptoms were identified within physician clinical documentation in the first 24 hours of hospitalization using natural language processing. The time of sign and symptom onset prior to presentation was quantified, and sign and symptom prevalence was assessed. Using multivariable logistic regression, the association of each sign and symptom with four outcomes was evaluated: sepsis versus suspected infection diagnosis, hospital mortality, ICU admission, and time of first antibiotics (> 3 vs ≤ 3 hr from presentation). A total of 10,825 signs and symptoms were identified in 6,148,348 clinical documentation fragments. The most common symptoms overall were as follows: dyspnea (35.2%), weakness (27.2%), altered mental status (24.3%), pain (23.9%), cough (19.7%), edema (17.8%), nausea (16.9%), hypertension (15.6%), fever (13.9%), and chest pain (12.1%). Compared with predominant signs and symptoms in heart failure and stroke, those present in infection were heterogeneous. Signs and symptoms indicative of neurologic dysfunction, significant respiratory conditions, and hypotension were strongly associated with sepsis diagnosis, hospital mortality, and intensive care. Fever, present in only a minority of patients, was associated with improved mortality (odds ratio, 0.67, 95% CI, 0.64-0.70; p < 0.001). For common symptoms, the peak time of symptom onset before sepsis was 2 days, except for altered mental status, which peaked at 1 day prior to presentation.

Conclusions

The clinical presentation of sepsis was heterogeneous and occurred with rapid onset prior to hospital presentation. These findings have important implications for improving public education, clinical treatment, and quality measures of sepsis care.

Pre-hospital predictors of an adverse outcome among patients with dyspnoea as the main symptom assessed by pre-hospital emergency nurses - a retrospective observational study

Background

Dyspnoea is one of the most common reasons for patients contacting emergency medical services (EMS). Pre-hospital Emergency Nurses (PENs) are independently responsible for advanced care and to meet these patients individual needs. Patients with dyspnoea constitute a complex group, with multiple different final diagnoses and with a high risk of death. This study aimed to describe on-scene factors associated with an increased risk of a time-sensitive final diagnosis and the risk of death.

Methods

A retrospective observational study including patients aged ≥16 years, presenting mainly with dyspnoea was conducted. Patients were identified thorough an EMS database, and were assessed by PENs in the south-western part of Sweden during January to December 2017. Of 7260 missions (9% of all primary missions), 6354 were included. Among those, 4587 patients were randomly selected in conjunction with adjusting for unique patients with single occasions. Data were manually collected through both EMS- and hospital records and final diagnoses were determined through the final diagnoses verified in hospital records. Analysis was performed using multiple logistic regression and multiple imputations.

Results

Among all unique patients with dyspnoea as the main symptom, 13% had a time-sensitive final diagnosis. The three most frequent final time-sensitive diagnoses were cardiac diseases (4.1% of all diagnoses), infectious/inflammatory diseases (2.6%), and vascular diseases (2.4%). A history of hypertension, renal disease, symptoms of pain, abnormal respiratory rate, impaired consciousness, a pathologic ECG and a short delay until call for EMS were associated with an increased risk of a time-sensitive final diagnosis. Among patients with time-sensitive diagnoses, approximately 27% died within 30 days. Increasing age, a history of renal disease, cancer, low systolic blood pressures, impaired consciousness and abnormal body temperature were associated with an increased risk of death.

Conclusions

Among patients with dyspnoea as the main symptom, age, previous medical history, deviating vital signs, ECG pattern, symptoms of pain, and a short delay until call for EMS are important factors to consider in the prehospital assessment of the combined risk of either having a time-sensitive diagnosis or death.

Supplementary Information

Supplementary information accompanies this paper at 10.1186/s12873-020-00384-1.

The predictive value of variables measurable in the ambulance and the development of the Predict Sepsis screening tools: a prospective cohort study

Background

Despite sepsis being a time critical condition with a high mortality, it is often not identified in a timely fashion. The aim of the current study was to create a screening tool based on bedside measurable variables predictive of sepsis among ambulance patients with infection according to clinical judgment by ambulance personnel.

Methods

Prospective cohort study of 551 adult patients presenting with suspected infection, performed in the ambulance setting of Stockholm during 2017–2018. 18 variables were measured in the ambulance (8 keywords related to medical history, 6 vital signs, 4 point-of-care blood tests, in addition to age, gender, and comorbidity. Logistic regression, area under the curve (AUC) and classification trees were used to study the association with sepsis. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were used to evaluate the predictive ability of sepsis screening models.

Results

The six variables with the strongest association with sepsis were: systolic blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, temperature > 38.5 °C, GCS < 15, lactate > 4 mmol/L, gastrointestinal symptoms, and a history of acute altered mental status. These were combined into the Predict Sepsis screening tool 1, with a sensitivity of 0.90, specificity 0.41, AUC 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73–0.81, PPV 0.52, and NPV 0.86. Combining a history of acute altered mental status with GCS < 15 and excluding lactate in the Predict Sepsis screening tool 2 did not noticeably affect the AUC. In addition, the AUCs of these models did not differ noticeably when compared to a model including vital signs alone, with novel calculated cut-offs; the Predict Sepsis screening tool 3.

Conclusions

Systolic blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, temperature > 38.5 °C, GCS < 15, lactate > 4 mmol/L, gastrointestinal symptoms, and a history of acute altered mental status demonstrated the strongest association with sepsis. We present three screening tools to predict sepsis with similar sensitivity. The results indicated no noticeable increase of predictive ability by including symptom-variables and blood tests to a sepsis screening tool in the current study population.

Trial registration

NCT03249597.

Telephonic description of sepsis among callers to an emergency dispatch centre in South Africa

Introduction

Sepsis is an acute, life-threatening condition caused by a dysregulated systemic response to infection. Early medical intervention such as antibiotics and fluid resuscitation can be life-saving. Diagnosis or suspicion of sepsis by an emergency call-taker could potentially improve patient outcome. Therefore, the aim was to determine the keywords used by callers to describe septic patients in South Africa when calling a national private emergency dispatch centre.

Methods

A retrospective review of prehospital patient records was completed to identify patients with sepsis in the prehospital environment. A mixed-methods design was employed in two-sequential phases. The first phase was qualitative. Thirty cases of sepsis were randomly selected, and the original call recording was extracted. These recordings were transcribed verbatim and subjected to content analysis to determine keywords of signs and symptoms telephonically. Once keywords were identified, an additional sample of sepsis cases that met inclusion and exclusion criteria were extracted and listened to. The frequency of each of the keywords was quantified.

Results

Eleven distinct categories were identified. The most prevalent categories that were used to describe sepsis telephonically were: gastrointestinal symptoms (40%), acute altered mental status (35%), weakness of the legs (33%) and malaise (31%). At least one of these four categories of keywords appeared in 86% of all call recordings.

Conclusion

It was found that certain categories appeared in higher frequencies than others so that a pattern could be recognised. Utilising these categories, telephonic recognition algorithms for sepsis could be developed to aid in predicting sepsis over the phone. This would allow for dispatching of the correct level of care immediately and could subsequently have positive effects on patient outcome.

Nonspecific complaints in the emergency department - a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Nonspecific complaint (NSC) is a common presenting complaint in the emergency setting, especially in the elderly population. Individual studies have shown that it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This prognostic systematic review draws a synthesis of reported outcomes for patients presenting with NSC and compares them with outcomes for patients presenting with a specific complaint.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search for publications, abstracts and conference presentations from Ovid, Scopus and Web of Science for the past 20 years. Studies were included which treated adult patients presenting to the Emergency Medical Services or Emergency Department with NSC. 2599 studies were screened for eligibility and quality was assessed using the SIGN assessment for bias tool. We excluded any low-quality studies, resulting in nine studies for quantitative analysis. We analysed the included studies for in-hospital mortality, triage category, emergency department length of stay, admission rate, hospital length of stay, intensive care admissions and re-visitation rate and compared outcomes to patients presenting with specific complaints (SC), where data were available. We grouped discharge diagnoses by ICD-10 category.

RESULTS

We found that patients presenting with NSC were mostly older adults. Mortality for patients with NSC was significantly increased compared to patients presenting with SC [OR 2.50 (95% CI 1.40-4.47)]. They were triaged as urgent less often than SC patients [OR 2.12 (95% CI 1.08-4.16)]. Emergency department length of stay was increased in two out of three studies. Hospital length of stay was increased by 1-3 days. Admission rates were high in most studies, 55 to 84%, and increased in comparison to patients with SC [OR 3.86 (95% CI 1.76-8.47)]. These patients seemed to require more resources than patients with SC. The number for intensive care admissions did not seem to be increased. Data were insufficient to make conclusions regarding re-visitation rates. Discharge diagnoses were spread throughout the ICD-10 main chapters, infections being the most prevalent.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NSC have a high risk of mortality and their care in the Emergency Department requires more time and resources than for patients with SC. We suggest that NSC should be considered a major emergency presentation.

Prehospital characteristics among patients with sepsis: a comparison between patients with or without adverse outcome

BACKGROUND

The prehospital care of patients with sepsis are commonly performed by the emergency medical services. These patients may be critically ill and have high in-hospital mortality rates. Unfortunately, few patients with sepsis are identified by the emergency medical services, which can lead to delayed treatment and a worse prognosis. Therefore, early identification of patients with sepsis is important, and more information about the prehospital characteristics that can be used to identify these patients is needed. Based on this lack of information, the objectives of this study were to investigate the prehospital characteristics that are identified while patients with sepsis are being transported to the hospital by the emergency medical services, and to compare these values to those of the patients with and without adverse outcomes during their hospital stays.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study. The patients' electronic health records were reviewed and selected consecutively based on the following: retrospectively diagnosed with sepsis and transported to an emergency department by the emergency medical services. Data were collected on demographics, prehospital characteristics and adverse outcomes, defined as the in-hospital mortality or treatment in the intensive care unit, and analysed by independent sample t-test and chi-square. Sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratio, of prehospital characteristics for predicting or development of adverse outcome were analysed.

RESULTS

In total, 327 patients were included. Of these, 50 patients had adverse outcomes. When comparing patients with or without an adverse outcome, decreased oxygen saturation and body temperature, increased serum glucose level and altered mental status during prehospital care were found to be associated with an adverse outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggests that patients having a decreased oxygen saturation and body temperature, increased serum glucose level and altered mental status during prehospital care are at risk of a poorer patient prognosis and adverse outcome. Recognizing these prehospital characteristics may help to identify patients with sepsis early and improve their long-term outcomes. However further research is required to predict limit values of saturation and serum glucose and to validate the use of prehospital characteristics for adverse outcome in patients with sepsis.

The prehospital assessment of patients with a final hospital diagnosis of sepsis: Results of an observational study

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a severe condition which affects 300-800/100,000 persons each year. There are indications that the prehospital identification of patients with sepsis is difficult. The aim of the study was, among patients with a final hospital diagnosis of sepsis, to compare emergency medical service (EMS) field assessments of patients in whom there was a prehospital suspicion of sepsis with those without this suspicion.

METHODS

The study had a retrospective, observational design. The data used in the study were retrieved from the prehospital and hospital medical records of patients with a final hospital diagnosis of sepsis, transported to hospital by the EMS within a region in the south west of Sweden during a period of one year.

RESULTS

Among patients with a final diagnosis of sepsis (n=353), the EMS identified the condition in 36% of the cases. These patients were characterised by more abnormal vital signs (a higher respiratory rate and heart rate and more frequent temperature abnormalities) and were more ambitiously assessed (more lung auscultations and more assessments of the degree of consciousness).

CONCLUSION

The EMS was already able to identify 36% of patients with a final diagnosis of sepsis in the prehospital phase. There were minor differences in the prehospital assessment between patients who were identified by the EMS nurse and those who were not.