Predicting interval and screen-detected breast cancers from mammographic density defined by different brightness thresholds

Association of breast cancer with quantitative mammographic density measures for women receiving contrast-enhanced mammography

Women with high mammographic density have an increased risk of breast cancer. They may be offered contrast-enhanced mammography to improve breast cancer screening performance. Using a cohort of women receiving contrast-enhanced mammography, we evaluated whether conventional and modified mammographic density measures were associated with breast cancer. Sixty-six patients with newly diagnosed unilateral breast cancer were frequency matched on the basis of age to 133 cancer-free control individuals. On low-energy craniocaudal contrast-enhanced mammograms (equivalent to standard mammograms), we measured quantitative mammographic density using CUMULUS software at the conventional intensity threshold ("Cumulus") and higher-than-conventional thresholds ("Altocumulus," "Cirrocumulus"). The measures were standardized to enable estimation of odds ratio per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA). In multivariable logistic regression of case-control status, only the highest-intensity measure (Cirrocumulus) was statistically significantly associated with breast cancer (OPERA = 1.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.04 to 1.89). Conventional Cumulus did not contribute to model fit. For women receiving contrast-enhanced mammography, Cirrocumulus mammographic density may better predict breast cancer than conventional quantitative mammographic density.

Breast and bowel cancers diagnosed in people 'too young to have cancer': A blueprint for research using family and twin studies

Young breast and bowel cancers (e.g., those diagnosed before age 40 or 50 years) have far greater morbidity and mortality in terms of years of life lost, and are increasing in incidence, but have been less studied. For breast and bowel cancers, the familial relative risks, and therefore the familial variances in age-specific log(incidence), are much greater at younger ages, but little of these familial variances has been explained. Studies of families and twins can address questions not easily answered by studies of unrelated individuals alone. We describe existing and emerging family and twin data that can provide special opportunities for discovery. We present designs and statistical analyses, including novel ideas such as the VALID (Variance in Age-specific Log Incidence Decomposition) model for causes of variation in risk, the DEPTH (DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits) and other approaches to analyse genome-wide association study data, and the within-pair, ICE FALCON (Inference about Causation from Examining FAmiliaL CONfounding) and ICE CRISTAL (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLysis) approaches to causation and familial confounding. Example applications to breast and colorectal cancer are presented. Motivated by the availability of the resources of the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries, we also present some ideas for future studies that could be applied to, and compared with, cancers diagnosed at older ages and address the challenges posed by young breast and bowel cancers.

Genetic and Environmental Causes of Variation in an Automated Breast Cancer Risk Factor Based on Mammographic Textures

BACKGROUND

Cirrus is an automated risk predictor for breast cancer that comprises texture-based mammographic features and is mostly independent of mammographic density. We investigated genetic and environmental variance of variation in Cirrus.

METHODS

We measured Cirrus for 3,195 breast cancer-free participants, including 527 pairs of monozygotic (MZ) twins, 271 pairs of dizygotic (DZ) twins, and 1,599 siblings of twins. Multivariate normal models were used to estimate the variance and familial correlations of age-adjusted Cirrus as a function of age. The classic twin model was expanded to allow the shared environment effects to differ by zygosity. The SNP-based heritability was estimated for a subset of 2,356 participants.

RESULTS

There was no evidence that the variance or familial correlations depended on age. The familial correlations were 0.52 (SE, 0.03) for MZ pairs and 0.16(SE, 0.03) for DZ and non-twin sister pairs combined. Shared environmental factors specific to MZ pairs accounted for 20% of the variance. Additive genetic factors accounted for 32% (SE = 5%) of the variance, consistent with the SNP-based heritability of 36% (SE = 16%).

CONCLUSION

Cirrus is substantially familial due to genetic factors and an influence of shared environmental factors that was evident for MZ twin pairs only. The latter could be due to nongenetic factors operating in utero or in early life that are shared by MZ twins.

IMPACT

Early-life factors, shared more by MZ pairs than DZ/non-twin sister pairs, could play a role in the variation in Cirrus, consistent with early life being recognized as a critical window of vulnerability to breast carcinogens.

Causal relationships between breast cancer risk factors based on mammographic features

BACKGROUND

Mammogram risk scores based on texture and density defined by different brightness thresholds are associated with breast cancer risk differently and could reveal distinct information about breast cancer risk. We aimed to investigate causal relationships between these intercorrelated mammogram risk scores to determine their relevance to breast cancer aetiology.

METHODS

We used digitised mammograms for 371 monozygotic twin pairs, aged 40-70 years without a prior diagnosis of breast cancer at the time of mammography, from the Australian Mammographic Density Twins and Sisters Study. We generated normalised, age-adjusted, and standardised risk scores based on textures using the Cirrus algorithm and on three spatially independent dense areas defined by increasing brightness threshold: light areas, bright areas, and brightest areas. Causal inference was made using the Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmilial CONfounding (ICE FALCON) method.

RESULTS

The mammogram risk scores were correlated within twin pairs and with each other (r = 0.22-0.81; all P < 0.005). We estimated that 28-92% of the associations between the risk scores could be attributed to causal relationships between the scores, with the rest attributed to familial confounders shared by the scores. There was consistent evidence for positive causal effects: of Cirrus, light areas, and bright areas on the brightest areas (accounting for 34%, 55%, and 85% of the associations, respectively); and of light areas and bright areas on Cirrus (accounting for 37% and 28%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In a mammogram, the lighter (less dense) areas have a causal effect on the brightest (highly dense) areas, including through a causal pathway via textural features. These causal relationships help us gain insight into the relative aetiological importance of different mammographic features in breast cancer. For example our findings are consistent with the brightest areas being more aetiologically important than lighter areas for screen-detected breast cancer; conversely, light areas being more aetiologically important for interval breast cancer. Additionally, specific textural features capture aetiologically independent breast cancer risk information from dense areas. These findings highlight the utility of ICE FALCON and family data in decomposing the associations between intercorrelated disease biomarkers into distinct biological pathways.

Variance of age-specific log incidence decomposition (VALID): a unifying model of measured and unmeasured genetic and non-genetic risks

BACKGROUND

The extent to which known and unknown factors explain how much people of the same age differ in disease risk is fundamental to epidemiology. Risk factors can be correlated in relatives, so familial aspects of risk (genetic and non-genetic) must be considered.

DEVELOPMENT

We present a unifying model (VALID) for variance in risk, with risk defined as log(incidence) or logit(cumulative incidence). Consider a normally distributed risk score with incidence increasing exponentially as the risk increases. VALID's building block is variance in risk, Δ2, where Δ = log(OPERA) is the difference in mean between cases and controls and OPERA is the odds ratio per standard deviation. A risk score correlated r between a pair of relatives generates a familial odds ratio of exp(rΔ2). Familial risk ratios, therefore, can be converted into variance components of risk, extending Fisher's classic decomposition of familial variation to binary traits. Under VALID, there is a natural upper limit to variance in risk caused by genetic factors, determined by the familial odds ratio for genetically identical twin pairs, but not to variation caused by non-genetic factors.

APPLICATION

For female breast cancer, VALID quantified how much variance in risk is explained-at different ages-by known and unknown major genes and polygenes, non-genomic risk factors correlated in relatives, and known individual-specific factors.

CONCLUSION

VALID has shown that, while substantial genetic risk factors have been discovered, much is unknown about genetic and familial aspects of breast cancer risk especially for young women, and little is known about individual-specific variance in risk.

Severity and risk factors of interval breast cancer in Queensland, Australia: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Interval breast cancers (BC) are those diagnosed within 24 months of a negative mammogram. This study estimates the odds of being diagnosed with high-severity BC among screen-detected, interval, and other symptom-detected BC (no screening history within 2 years); and explores factors associated with being diagnosed with interval BC.

METHODS

Telephone interviews and self-administered questionnaires were conducted among women (n = 3,326) diagnosed with BC in 2010-2013 in Queensland. Respondents were categorised into screen-detected, interval, and other symptom-detected BCs. Data were analysed using logistic regressions with multiple imputation.

RESULTS

Compared with screen-detected BC, interval BC had higher odds of late-stage (OR = 3.50, 2.9-4.3), high-grade (OR = 2.36, 1.9-2.9) and triple-negative cancers (OR = 2.55, 1.9-3.5). Compared with other symptom-detected BC, interval BC had lower odds of late stage (OR = 0.75, 0.6-0.9), but higher odds of triple-negative cancers (OR = 1.68, 1.2-2.3). Among women who had a negative mammogram (n = 2,145), 69.8% were diagnosed at their next mammogram, while 30.2% were diagnosed with an interval cancer. Those with an interval cancer were more likely to have healthy weight (OR = 1.37, 1.1-1.7), received hormone replacement therapy (2-10 years: OR = 1.33, 1.0-1.7; > 10 years: OR = 1.55, 1.1-2.2), conducted monthly breast self-examinations (BSE) (OR = 1.66, 1.2-2.3) and had previous mammogram in a public facility (OR = 1.52, 1.2-2.0).

CONCLUSION

These results highlight the benefits of screening even among those with an interval cancer. Women-conducted BSE were more likely to have interval BC which may reflect their increased ability to notice symptoms between screening intervals.

Association of contralateral breast cancer risk with mammographic density defined at higher-than-conventional intensity thresholds

Mammographic dense area (MDA) is an established predictor of future breast cancer risk. Recent studies have found that risk prediction might be improved by redefining MDA in effect at higher-than-conventional intensity thresholds. We assessed whether such higher-intensity MDA measures gave stronger prediction of subsequent contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk using the Women's Environment, Cancer, and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study, a population-based CBC case-control study of ≥1 year survivors of unilateral breast cancer diagnosed between 1990 and 2008. Three measures of MDA for the unaffected contralateral breast were made at the conventional intensity threshold ("Cumulus") and at two sequentially higher-intensity thresholds ("Altocumulus" and "Cirrocumulus") using the CUMULUS software and mammograms taken up to 3 years prior to the first breast cancer diagnosis. The measures were fitted separately and together in multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models of CBC (252 CBC cases and 271 unilateral breast cancer controls). The strongest association with CBC was MDA defined using the highest intensity threshold, Cirrocumulus (odds ratio per adjusted SD [OPERA] 1.40, 95% CI 1.13-1.73); and the weakest association was MDA defined at the conventional threshold, Cumulus (1.32, 95% CI 1.05-1.66). In a model fitting the three measures together, the association of CBC with Cirrocumulus was unchanged (1.40, 95% CI 0.97-2.05), and the lower brightness measures did not contribute to the CBC model fit. These results suggest that MDA defined at a high-intensity threshold is a better predictor of CBC risk and has the potential to improve CBC risk stratification beyond conventional MDA measures.

Genetic Aspects of Mammographic Density Measures Associated with Breast Cancer Risk

Cumulus, Altocumulus, and Cirrocumulus are measures of mammographic density defined at increasing pixel brightness thresholds, which, when converted to mammogram risk scores (MRSs), predict breast cancer risk. Twin and family studies suggest substantial variance in the MRSs could be explained by genetic factors. For 2559 women aged 30 to 80 years (mean 54 years), we measured the MRSs from digitized film mammograms and estimated the associations of the MRSs with a 313-SNP breast cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) and 202 individual SNPs associated with breast cancer risk. The PRS was weakly positively correlated (correlation coefficients ranged 0.05−0.08; all p < 0.04) with all the MRSs except the Cumulus-white MRS based on the “white but not bright area” (correlation coefficient = 0.04; p = 0.06). After adjusting for its association with the Altocumulus MRS, the PRS was not associated with the Cumulus MRS. There were MRS associations (Bonferroni-adjusted p < 0.04) with one SNP in the ATXN1 gene and nominally with some ESR1 SNPs. Less than 1% of the variance of the MRSs is explained by the genetic markers currently known to be associated with breast cancer risk. Discovering the genetic determinants of the bright, not white, regions of the mammogram could reveal substantial new genetic causes of breast cancer.

Deep learning identification of stiffness markers in breast cancer

While essential to our understanding of solid tumor progression, the study of cell and tissue mechanics has yet to find traction in the clinic. Determining tissue stiffness, a mechanical property known to promote a malignant phenotype in vitro and in vivo, is not part of the standard algorithm for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer. Instead, clinicians routinely use mammograms to identify malignant lesions and radiographically dense breast tissue is associated with an increased risk of developing cancer. Whether breast density is related to tumor tissue stiffness, and what cellular and non-cellular components of the tumor contribute the most to its stiffness are not well understood. Through training of a deep learning network and mechanical measurements of fresh patient tissue, we create a bridge in understanding between clinical and mechanical markers. The automatic identification of cellular and extracellular features from hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained slides reveals that global and local breast tissue stiffness best correlate with the percentage of straight collagen. Importantly, the percentage of dense breast tissue does not directly correlate with tissue stiffness or straight collagen content.

Joanne Knight Breast Health Cohort at Siteman Cancer Center

PURPOSE

The Joanne Knight Breast Health Cohort was established to link breast cancer risk factors, mammographic breast density, benign breast biopsies and associated tissue markers, and blood markers in a diverse population of women undergoing routine mammographic screening to study risk factors and validate models for breast cancer risk prediction.

METHODS

Women were recruited from November 2008 to April 2012 through the mammography service at the Joanne Knight Breast Health Center at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri. Baseline questionnaire risk factors, blood, and screening mammograms were collected from 12,153 women. Of these, 1,672 were excluded for prior history of any cancer (except non-melanoma skin) or diagnosis of breast cancer within 6 months of blood draw/registration for the study, for a total of 10,481 women. Follow-up is through linking to electronic health records, tumor registry, and death register. Routine screening mammograms are collected every 1-2 years and incident benign breast biopsies and cancers are identified through record linkage to pathology and tumor registries. Formal fixed tissue samples are retrieved and stored for analysis. County-level measures of structural inequality were derived from publicly available resources.

RESULTS

Cohort Composition: median age at entry was 54.8 years and 26.7% are African American. Through 2020, 74% of participants have had a medical center visit within the past year and 80% within the past 2 years representing an average of 9.7 person-years of follow-up from date of blood draw per participant. 9,997 women are continuing in follow-up. Data collected at baseline include breast cancer risk factors, plasma and white blood cells, and mammograms prior to baseline, at baseline, and during follow-up.

CONCLUSION

This cohort assembled and followed in a routine mammography screening and care setting that serves a diverse population of women in the St. Louis region now provides opportunities to integrate study of questionnaire measures, plasma and DNA markers, benign and malignant tissue markers, and repeated breast image features into prospective evaluation for breast cancer etiology and outcomes.

Familial Aspects of Mammographic Density Measures Associated with Breast Cancer Risk

Simple Summary

Cumulus, Cumulus-percent, Altocumulus, Cirrocumulus, and Cumulus-white are mammogram risk scores (MRSs) that predict a woman’s risk of breast cancer based on mammographically dense areas when defined by different levels of brightness. We measured these MRS for 593 monozygotic (MZ) and 326 dizygotic (DZ) female twin pairs and 1592 of their sisters. We estimated how much these MRSs were correlated in relatives (ρ), how much of the differences between women were due to genetic factors (heritability), and how much these MRS explained why breast cancer runs in families. The ρ estimates ranged from: 0.41 to 0.60 for MZ pairs, 0.16 to 0.26 for DZ pairs, and 0.19 to 0.29 sister pairs, respectively. Heritability estimates were 36% to 69%. Genetic factors explain most of why twins and sisters are similar in their MRS, and these genetic factors explain one-quarter to one-half as much breast cancer risk as to the current best genetic risk score.

Abstract

Cumulus, Cumulus-percent, Altocumulus, Cirrocumulus, and Cumulus-white are mammogram risk scores (MRSs) for breast cancer based on mammographic density defined in effect by different levels of pixel brightness and adjusted for age and body mass index. We measured these MRS from digitized film mammograms for 593 monozygotic (MZ) and 326 dizygotic (DZ) female twin pairs and 1592 of their sisters. We estimated the correlations in relatives (r) and the proportion of variance due to genetic factors (heritability) using the software FISHER and predicted the familial risk ratio (FRR) associated with each MRS. The ρ estimates ranged from: 0.41 to 0.60 (standard error [SE] 0.02) for MZ pairs, 0.16 to 0.26 (SE 0.05) for DZ pairs, and 0.19 to 0.29 (SE 0.02) for sister pairs (including pairs of a twin and her non-twin sister), respectively. Heritability estimates were 39% to 69% under the classic twin model and 36% to 56% when allowing for shared non-genetic factors specific to MZ pairs. The FRRs were 1.08 to 1.17. These MRSs are substantially familial, due mostly to genetic factors that explain one-quarter to one-half as much of the familial aggregation of breast cancer that is explained by the current best polygenic risk score.

Mammographic texture features associated with contralateral breast cancer in the WECARE Study

To evaluate whether mammographic texture features were associated with second primary contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk, we created a "texture risk score" using pre-treatment mammograms in a case-control study of 212 women with CBC and 223 controls with unilateral breast cancer. The texture risk score was associated with CBC (odds per adjusted standard deviation = 1.25, 95% CI 1.01-1.56) after adjustment for mammographic percent density and confounders. These results support the potential of texture features for CBC risk assessment of breast cancer survivors.

Novel mammogram-based measures improve breast cancer risk prediction beyond an established mammographic density measure

Mammograms contain information that predicts breast cancer risk. We developed two novel mammogram-based breast cancer risk measures based on image brightness (Cirrocumulus) and texture (Cirrus). Their risk prediction when fitted together, and with an established measure of conventional mammographic density (Cumulus), is not known. We used three studies consisting of: 168 interval cases and 498 matched controls; 422 screen-detected cases and 1197 matched controls; and 354 younger-diagnosis cases and 944 controls frequency-matched for age at mammogram. We conducted conditional and unconditional logistic regression analyses of individually- and frequency-matched studies, respectively. We estimated measure-specific risk gradients as the change in odds per standard deviation of controls after adjusting for age and body mass index (OPERA) and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For interval, screen-detected and younger-diagnosis cancer risks, the best fitting models (OPERAs [95% confidence intervals]) involved: Cumulus (1.81 [1.41-2.31]) and Cirrus (1.72 [1.38-2.14]); Cirrus (1.49 [1.32-1.67]) and Cirrocumulus (1.16 [1.03 to 1.31]); and Cirrus (1.70 [1.48 to 1.94]) and Cirrocumulus (1.46 [1.27-1.68]), respectively. The AUCs were: 0.73 [0.68-0.77], 0.63 [0.60-0.66], and 0.72 [0.69-0.75], respectively. Combined, our new mammogram-based measures have twice the risk gradient for screen-detected and younger-diagnosis breast cancer (P ≤ 10^-12 ), have at least the same discriminatory power as the current polygenic risk score, and are more correlated with causal factors than conventional mammographic density. Discovering more information about breast cancer risk from mammograms could help enable risk-based personalised breast screening.

Personalized early detection and prevention of breast cancer: ENVISION consensus statement

The European Collaborative on Personalized Early Detection and Prevention of Breast Cancer (ENVISION) brings together several international research consortia working on different aspects of the personalized early detection and prevention of breast cancer. In a consensus conference held in 2019, the members of this network identified research areas requiring development to enable evidence-based personalized interventions that might improve the benefits and reduce the harms of existing breast cancer screening and prevention programmes. The priority areas identified were: 1) breast cancer subtype-specific risk assessment tools applicable to women of all ancestries; 2) intermediate surrogate markers of response to preventive measures; 3) novel non-surgical preventive measures to reduce the incidence of breast cancer of poor prognosis; and 4) hybrid effectiveness-implementation research combined with modelling studies to evaluate the long-term population outcomes of risk-based early detection strategies. The implementation of such programmes would require health-care systems to be open to learning and adapting, the engagement of a diverse range of stakeholders and tailoring to societal norms and values, while also addressing the ethical and legal issues. In this Consensus Statement, we discuss the current state of breast cancer risk prediction, risk-stratified prevention and early detection strategies, and their implementation. Throughout, we highlight priorities for advancing each of these areas.

Going Beyond Conventional Mammographic Density to Discover Novel Mammogram-Based Predictors of Breast Cancer Risk

This commentary is about predicting a woman’s breast cancer risk from her mammogram, building on the work of Wolfe, Boyd and Yaffe on mammographic density. We summarise our efforts at finding new mammogram-based risk predictors, and how they combine with the conventional mammographic density, in predicting risk for interval cancers and screen-detected breast cancers across different ages at diagnosis and for both Caucasian and Asian women. Using the OPERA (odds ratio per adjusted standard deviation) concept, in which the risk gradient is measured on an appropriate scale that takes into account other factors adjusted for by design or analysis, we show that our new mammogram-based measures are the strongest of all currently known breast cancer risk factors in terms of risk discrimination on a population-basis. We summarise our findings graphically using a path diagram in which conventional mammographic density predicts interval cancer due to its role in masking, while the new mammogram-based risk measures could have a causal effect on both interval and screen-detected breast cancer. We discuss attempts by others to pursue this line of investigation, the measurement challenge that allows different measures to be compared in an open and transparent manner on the same datasets, as well as the biological and public health consequences.

Interval breast cancer risk associations with breast density, family history and breast tissue aging

Interval breast cancers (those diagnosed between recommended mammography screens) generally have poorer outcomes and are more common among women with dense breasts. We aimed to develop a risk model for interval breast cancer. We conducted a nested case-control study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study involving 168 interval breast cancer patients and 498 matched control subjects. We measured breast density using the CUMULUS software. We recorded first-degree family history by questionnaire, measured body mass index (BMI) and calculated age-adjusted breast tissue aging, a novel measure of exposure to estrogen and progesterone based on the Pike model. We fitted conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratio (OR) or odds ratio per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The stronger risk associations were for unadjusted percent breast density (OPERA = 1.99; AUC = 0.66), more so after adjusting for age and BMI (OPERA = 2.26; AUC = 0.70), and for family history (OR = 2.70; AUC = 0.56). When the latter two factors and their multiplicative interactions with age-adjusted breast tissue aging (p = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively) were fitted, the AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.77), equivalent to a ninefold interquartile risk ratio. In summary, compared with using dense breasts alone, risk discrimination for interval breast cancers could be doubled by instead using breast density, BMI, family history and hormonal exposure. This would also give women with dense breasts, and their physicians, more information about the major consequence of having dense breasts-an increased risk of developing an interval breast cancer.

A review of the influence of mammographic density on breast cancer clinical and pathological phenotype

PURPOSE

It is well established that high mammographic density (MD), when adjusted for age and body mass index, is one of the strongest known risk factors for breast cancer (BC), and also associates with higher incidence of interval cancers in screening due to the masking of early mammographic abnormalities. Increasing research is being undertaken to determine the underlying histological and biochemical determinants of MD and their consequences for BC pathogenesis, anticipating that improved mechanistic insights may lead to novel preventative or treatment interventions. At the same time, technological advances in digital and contrast mammography are such that the validity of well-established relationships needs to be re-examined in this context.

METHODS

With attention to old versus new technologies, we conducted a literature review to summarise the relationships between clinicopathologic features of BC and the density of the surrounding breast tissue on mammography, including the associations with BC biological features inclusive of subtype, and implications for the clinical disease course encompassing relapse, progression, treatment response and survival.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

There is reasonable evidence to support positive relationships between high MD (HMD) and tumour size, lymph node positivity and local relapse in the absence of radiotherapy, but not between HMD and LVI, regional relapse or distant metastasis. Conflicting data exist for associations of HMD with tumour location, grade, intrinsic subtype, receptor status, second primary incidence and survival, which need further confirmatory studies. We did not identify any relationships that did not hold up when data involving newer imaging techniques were employed in analysis.