Latent class models for Echinococcus multilocularis diagnosis in foxes in Switzerland in the absence of a gold standard

Modelling diagnostics for Echinococcus granulosus surveillance in sheep using Latent Class Analysis: Argentina as a case study

Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato is a globally prevalent zoonotic parasitic cestode leading to cystic echinococcosis (CE) in both humans and sheep with both medical and financial impacts, whose reduction requires the application of a One Health approach to its control. Regarding the animal health component of this approach, lack of accurate and practical diagnostics in livestock impedes the assessment of disease burden and the implementation and evaluation of control strategies. We use of a Bayesian Latent Class Analysis (LCA) model to estimate ovine CE prevalence in sheep samples from the Río Negro province of Argentina accounting for uncertainty in the diagnostics. We use model outputs to evaluate the performance of a novel recombinant B8/2 antigen B subunit (rEgAgB8/2) indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting E. granulosus in sheep. Necropsy (as a partial gold standard), western blot (WB) and ELISA diagnostic data were collected from 79 sheep within two Río Negro slaughterhouses, and used to estimate individual infection status (assigned as a latent variable within the model). Using the model outputs, the performance of the novel ELISA at both individual and flock levels was evaluated, respectively, using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and simulating a range of sample sizes and prevalence levels within hypothetical flocks. The estimated (mean) prevalence of ovine CE was 27.5% (95%Bayesian credible interval (95%BCI): 13.8%-58.9%) within the sample population. At the individual level, the ELISA had a mean sensitivity and specificity of 55% (95%BCI: 46%-68%) and 68% (95%BCI: 63%-92%), respectively, at an optimal optical density (OD) threshold of 0.378. At the flock level, the ELISA had an 80% probability of correctly classifying infection at an optimal cut-off threshold of 0.496. These results suggest that the novel ELISA could play a useful role as a flock-level diagnostic for CE surveillance in the region, supplementing surveillance activities in the human population and thus strengthening a One Health approach. Importantly, selection of ELISA cut-off threshold values must be tailored according to the epidemiological situation.

A highly endemic area of Echinococcus multilocularis identified through a comparative re-assessment of prevalence in the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), Alto Adige (Italy: 2019–2020)

Surveillance of Echinococcus multilocularis at the edge of its range is hindered by fragmented distributional patterns and low prevalence in definitive hosts. Thus, tests with adequate levels of sensitivity are especially important for discriminating between infected and non-infected areas. In this study we reassessed the prevalence of E. multilocularis at the southern border of its distribution in Province of Bolzano (Alto Adige, northeastern Alps, Italy), to improve surveillance in wildlife and provide more accurate estimates of exposure risk. We compared the diagnostic test currently implemented for surveillance based on coproscopy and multiplex PCR (CMPCR) to a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) in 235 fox faeces collected in 2019 and 2020. The performances of the two tests were estimated using a scraping technique (SFCT) applied to the small intestines of a subsample (n = 123) of the same foxes as the reference standard. True prevalence was calculated and the sample size required by each faecal test for the detection of the parasite was then estimated. True prevalence of E. multilocularis in foxes (14.3%) was markedly higher than reported in the last decade, which was never more than 5% from 2012 to 2018 in the same area. In addition, qPCR showed a much higher sensitivity (83%) compared to CMPCR (21%) and agreement with the reference standard was far higher for qPCR (0.816) than CMPCR (0.298) meaning that for the latter protocol, a smaller sample size would be required to detect the disease. Alto Adige should be considered a highly endemic area. Routine surveillance on definitive hosts at the edges of the E. multilocularis distribution should be applied to smaller geographic areas, and rapid, sensitive diagnostic tools using directly host faeces, such as qPCR, should be adopted.

Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal-human-environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies.

A global assessment of Echinococcus multilocularis infections in domestic dogs: proposing a framework to overcome past methodological heterogeneity

Echinococcus multilocularis, the aetiological agent of human Alveolar Echinococcosis, is transmitted between small mammals and wild or domestic canids. Dogs infected with E. multilocularis as dead-end hosts. Whereas E. multilocularis infections in wild hosts and humans have been well-studied in recent decades, infections in domestic dogs are sparsely reported. This literature review and meta-analysis highlighted gaps in the available data and provided a re-assessment of the global distribution of domestic dog E. multilocularis infections. We found 46 published articles documenting the prevalence of E. multilocularis in domestic dogs from 21 countries across Europe, Asia and North America. Apparent prevalence estimates ranged from 0.00% (0.00-0.33%) in Germany to 55.50% (26.67-81.12%) in China. Most studies were conducted in areas of high human Alveolar Echinococcosis. By accounting for reassessed diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, we estimated true prevalence in a subset of studies, which varied between 0.00% (0.00-12.42%) and 41.09% (21.12-65.81%), as these true prevalence estimates were seldom reported in the articles themselves. Articles also showed a heavy emphasis on rural dogs, dismissing urban ones, which is concerning due to the role urbanisation plays in the transmission of zoonotic diseases, especially those utilising pets as definitive hosts. Lastly, population studies on canine Alveolar Echinococcosis were absent, highlighting the relative focus on human rather than animal health. We thus developed a framework for investigating domestic dog E. multilocularis infections and performing risk assessment of dog-associated transmission to fill the gaps found in the literature.

Echinococcus multilocularis and other cestodes in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) of northeast Italy, 2012-2018

Background

Echinococcus multilocularis is a small tapeworm affecting wild and domestic carnivores and voles in a typical prey-predator life cycle. In Italy, there has been a focus of E. multilocularis since 1997 in the northern Italian Alps, later confirmed in red foxes collected from 2001 to 2005. In this study, we report the results of seven years of monitoring on E. multilocularis and other cestodes in foxes and describe the changes that occurred over time and among areas (eco-regions) showing different environmental and ecological features on a large scale.

Methods

Eggs of cestodes were isolated from feces of 2872 foxes with a sedimentation/filtration technique. The cestode species was determined through multiplex PCR, targeting and sequencing ND1 and 12S genes. Analyses were aimed to highlight variations among different eco-regions and trends in prevalence across the study years.

Results

Out of 2872 foxes, 217 (7.55%) samples resulted positive for cestode eggs at coproscopy, with differences of prevalence according to year, sampling area and age class. Eight species of cestodes were identified, with Taenia crassiceps (2.65%), Taenia polyacantha (1.98%) and E. multilocularis (1.04%) as the most represented. The other species, Mesocestoides litteratus, Taenia krabbei, T. serialis, T. taeniaeformis and Dipylidium caninum, accounted for < 1% altogether. Echinococcus multilocularis was identified in foxes from two out of six eco-regions, in 30 fecal samples, accounting for 1.04% within the cestode positives at coproscopy. All E. multilocularis isolates came from Bolzano province. Prevalence of cestodes, both collectively and for each of the three most represented species (T. crassiceps, T. polyacantha and E. multilocularis), varied based on the sampling year, and for E. multilocularis an apparent increasing trend across the last few years was evidenced.

Conclusions

Our study confirms the presence of a focus of E. multilocularis in red foxes of northeast Italy. Although this focus seems still spatially limited, given its persistence and apparent increasing prevalence through the years, we recommend research to be conducted in the future on the ecological factors that, on a smaller scale, allow this zoonotic species to persist. On the same scale, we recommend a health education campaign to inform on the measures to prevent this zoonosis, targeted at people living in the area, especially hunters, dog owners, forestry workers and other potentially exposed categories.

Bayesian Analysis of Three Methods for Diagnosis of Cystic Echinococcosis in Sheep

Diagnosis of cystic echinococcosis (CE) in sheep is essentially based on necropsy findings. Clinical symptoms can be easily overlooked, while the use of immunological tests is still not recommended for an intra vitam diagnosis. This study assessed the performances of three post-mortem laboratory methods in the diagnosis of ovine CE. In the absence of a single and accurate test as a gold standard, the results of multiple analytical tests can be combined to estimate diagnostic performance based on a Bayesian statistical approach. For this purpose, livers (n = 77), and lungs (n = 79) were sampled from adult sheep and examined using gross pathology, histopathology and molecular analyses. Data from the three diagnostic methods were analyzed using a Bayesian latent class analysis model to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy in terms of sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). The gross pathology examination revealed excellent diagnostic capabilities in diagnosing ovine CE with an Se of 99.7 (96.7-99.8), Sp of 97.5 (90.3-99.8), PPV of 97.6 (90.5-100), and NPV of 99.7 (96.5-100). The experimental design used in this work could be implemented as a validation protocol in a quality assurance system.

A One Health systematic review of diagnostic tools for Echinococcus multilocularis surveillance: Towards equity in global detection

Echinococcus multilocularis is a zoonotic cestode of canid definitive hosts that is emerging as a parasite of medical and veterinary concern in regions of North America, Europe and Asia. Infection with the metacestode stage (alveolar echinococcosis - AE) is life-threatening, especially for patients who reside in low resource countries and lack access to modern diagnostic tests and treatments. The overall objectives of this One Health review were to systematically describe the diagnostic tests currently employed in endemic countries to detect E. multilocularis in people, canids and the environment, and to report the test characteristics of new diagnostic techniques for population surveillance. In this systematic review of English and Chinese language databases, we identified 92 primary records of E. multilocularis surveillance in canids (N = 75), humans (N = 20) and/or the environment (food, soil; N = 3) and 12 grey literature records that reported E. multilocularis surveillance or health systems protocols between 2008 and 2018. Surveillance for E. multilocularis was conducted using a broad range of combined morphological, molecular, immunological and imaging techniques. Nine studies reporting diagnostic evaluations for cestode or metacestode detection were identified, including studies on copro-antigen ELISA, copro-PCR, intestinal examination, Western Blot, magnetic capture RT-PCR and immunochromatography. Our dataset includes prevalence estimates for E. multilocularis in canids, people, or environment in 27 of the 43 endemic countries and reports data gaps in surveillance, laboratory methods, and diagnostic sensitivity. International consensus on gold standard diagnostic techniques and harmonization of human, canid and environmental surveillance data across political boundaries are needed to comprehensively assess the global burden and distribution of this parasite.