Temporal and geographic analysis of trichinellosis incidence in Chile with risk assessment

Mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou Province, China: a prediction study using SARIMA and Prophet models

Mushroom poisoning is a public health concern worldwide that not only harms the physical and mental health of those who are poisoned but also increases the medical and financial burden on families and society. The present study aimed to describe and analyze the current situations and factors influencing mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou province, Southwest China, between January 2012 and June 2022, and to predict the future trends of its occurrence. Our study provides a basis for the rational formulation of prevention and control and medical resource allocation policies for mushroom poisoning. The epidemiological characteristics and factors influencing mushroom poisoning incidence were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods and the chi-squared test, respectively. Then, future occurrence trends were predicted using the SARIMA and Prophet models. In total, 1577 mushroom poisoning incidents were recorded in Guizhou Province, with 7347 exposures, 5497 cases, 3654 hospitalizations, and 93 fatalities. The mortality rate was 4.45% in 1 ~ 6 years higher than other age groups. There were notable geographic and seasonal characteristics, with the number of occurrences much higher in rural areas (1198) than in cities (379), and poisoning cases were more common during the rainy season (June to September). The mortality rate of household poisoning cases was 1.86%, with the most deaths occurring in households. Statistically significant differences were observed in the incidence across various cities, periods, and poisoning locations (P < 0.05). Both models had advantages and disadvantages for prediction. Nevertheless, the SARIMA model had better overall prediction results than the Prophet model (R > 0.9, the residual plot of the prediction results was randomly distributed, and RMSESARIMA < RMSEProphet). However, the prediction result plot of the Prophet model was more explanatory than the SARIMA model and could visualize overall and seasonal trends. Both models predicted that the prevalence of mushroom poisoning would continue to increase in the future; however, the number of fatalities is generally declining. Seasonal patterns indicated that a high number of deaths from gooseberry mushroom poisoning occurred in October. The epidemiological trends of mushroom poisoning remain severe, and health education on related knowledge must be strengthened in rural areas, with June to October as the key prevention and control phase. Further, medical treatment of mushroom poisoning cases with clinical symptoms should pay attention to inquiries to check whether the mushroom is similar in appearance to the Amanita, particularly in October.

First record of Trichinella in Leopardus guigna (Carnivora, Felidae) and Galictis cuja (Carnivora, Mustelidae): new hosts in Chile

Background

Trichinellosis is a zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. It is caused by several species of nematodes in the genus Trichinella. Trichinella spp. are transmitted through predation or carrion consumption and occur in domestic and sylvatic cycles. In humans trichinellosis occurs due to the consumption of raw or undercooked, infected meat and is mainly associated with the household slaughter of pigs or the consumption of game animals without veterinary inspection, a cultural practice that is difficult to resolve. Therefore, knowledge of this parasite's reservoir is relevant for better implementing public health strategies. The aim of this study was to assess the presence of Trichinella sp. in several carnivore and omnivore vertebrates in central-southern Chile.

Methods

We collected muscle tissue from a total of 53 animals from 15 species and were digested to detect Trichinella larvae which were further identified to species level using molecular techniques.

Results

We detected Trichinella larvae in Leopardus guigna (Felidae) and Galictis cuja (Mustelidae). We identified the larvae collected from L. guigna as Trichinella spiralis, but we were unable to molecularly characterize the larvae from G. cuja. This is the first record of Trichinella in a native mustelid of South America and the first record of T. spiralis in L. guigna. This study identified two novel hosts; however, further work is needed to identify the role that these and other hosts play in the cycle of Trichinella in Chile.