Mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou Province, China: a prediction study using SARIMA and Prophet models

Mushroom poisoning is a public health concern worldwide that not only harms the physical and mental health of those who are poisoned but also increases the medical and financial burden on families and society. The present study aimed to describe and analyze the current situations and factors influencing mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou province, Southwest China, between January 2012 and June 2022, and to predict the future trends of its occurrence. Our study provides a basis for the rational formulation of prevention and control and medical resource allocation policies for mushroom poisoning. The epidemiological characteristics and factors influencing mushroom poisoning incidence were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods and the chi-squared test, respectively. Then, future occurrence trends were predicted using the SARIMA and Prophet models. In total, 1577 mushroom poisoning incidents were recorded in Guizhou Province, with 7347 exposures, 5497 cases, 3654 hospitalizations, and 93 fatalities. The mortality rate was 4.45% in 1 ~ 6 years higher than other age groups. There were notable geographic and seasonal characteristics, with the number of occurrences much higher in rural areas (1198) than in cities (379), and poisoning cases were more common during the rainy season (June to September). The mortality rate of household poisoning cases was 1.86%, with the most deaths occurring in households. Statistically significant differences were observed in the incidence across various cities, periods, and poisoning locations (P < 0.05). Both models had advantages and disadvantages for prediction. Nevertheless, the SARIMA model had better overall prediction results than the Prophet model (R > 0.9, the residual plot of the prediction results was randomly distributed, and RMSESARIMA < RMSEProphet). However, the prediction result plot of the Prophet model was more explanatory than the SARIMA model and could visualize overall and seasonal trends. Both models predicted that the prevalence of mushroom poisoning would continue to increase in the future; however, the number of fatalities is generally declining. Seasonal patterns indicated that a high number of deaths from gooseberry mushroom poisoning occurred in October. The epidemiological trends of mushroom poisoning remain severe, and health education on related knowledge must be strengthened in rural areas, with June to October as the key prevention and control phase. Further, medical treatment of mushroom poisoning cases with clinical symptoms should pay attention to inquiries to check whether the mushroom is similar in appearance to the Amanita, particularly in October.

[Effect of amoxicillin on the enamel mineralization of SD rats]

Objective: To determine whether amoxicillin had an effect on the enamel mineralization of SD rats. Methods: Eighteen SD rats were randomly divided into three groups. The rats in the control group were given distilled water. The rats in two experimental groups were administered 50 or 100 mg/kg amoxicillin by intragastric administration from day 3 to day 17 after birth. The general condition, the structure of liver and kidney, the enamel surface changes of mandibular first molars and incisors were observed. The changes of Ca/P ratio on enamel surface were analyzed by X-ray energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS). The surface morphology after phosphoric acid treatment was examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Histological changes in the ameloblasts of mandibular incisors were analyzed by hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining. Results: Compared with the control group, the general conditions as well as liver and kidney structures of SD rats in 50 and 100 mg amoxicillin groups had no significant differences. There was no obvious chalky changes on the first mandibular molars of SD rats in each group. All the incisors in 50 and 100 mg groups showed different degrees of chalkiness in the labial incisal 1/3 enamel. X-ray EDS analysis showed that the Ca/P ratios of occlusal and incisal 1/3 enamel in 50 and 100 mg groups (occlusal 1/3 of mandibular first molars: 1.51±0.03 and 1.52±0.02, incisal 1/3 of mandibular incisors: 1.46±0.01 and 1.43±0.01) was significantly lower than that in the control group (occlusal 1/3 of mandibular first molars: 1.67±0.41, incisal1/3 of mandibular incisors: 1.73±0.07) (P<0.05). However, there was no significant differences in the cervical 1/3 Ca/P ratio of mandibular first molars and incisors among the three groups (mandibular first molars: 1.56±0.04 for control group, 1.59±0.05 for 50 mg group and 1.57±0.04 for 100 mg group; incisors: 1.52±0.02 for control group, 1.47±0.01 for 50 mg group and 1.51±0.03 for 100 mg group) (P>0.05). SEM observation showed that the enamel rods of the first molars and incisors in the 50 and 100 mg group varied in size and arranged disorderly. The spaces between the enamel rods were larger than that in the control group and some areas even appeared large pits. HE staining showed that the gaps between ameloblasts in 50 and 100 mg groups were significantly wider than that in the control group. Conclusions: Intake of amoxicillin during the period of enamel development of SD rats might affect enamel mineralization.

Apodized waveguide arrays induced by photorefractive nonlinear surface waves

A new type of nonlinear waveguides, photorefractive surface optical waveguides is suggested, which can be induced by photorefractive surface waves on the boundary of photorefractive crystal. The disturbed refractive index distribution of such waveguides behaves as a periodic lattice with apodized envelope, thus we call them photorefractive surface apodized waveguide arrays. Moreover, the dispersion relation and corresponding modes are analyzed. It is very interesting that the dispersion curves of index-guided modes and Bragg-guided modes couple and intertwine with each other, and anti-crossings instead of crossings between them hence generate some mini-gaps. Moreover there exists a type of extraordinary modes constituted by the splice of index-guided modes and Bragg-guided modes.

Observation of photorefractive surface waves in self-defocusing LiNbO3:Fe crystal

Photorefractive (PR) surface waves (SWs) in self-defocusing LiNbO(3):Fe are studied theoretically and experimentally. We demonstrate that SWs can also be formed in a self-defocusing nonlinear medium and that the nonlocal nonlinearity (such as the diffusion component of PR nonlinearity in this Letter) is the essential cause. The forming process of PR SWs with a self-deflection course of light beams has been observed. The results indicate the possibility of concentrating light energy in self-defocusing media, taking advantage of SWs.

Surface dark screening solitons

We report on the existence of surface dark screening solitons at the interface between a dielectric medium (air) and a self-defocusing nonlinear material, taking advantage of photorefractive diffusion and drift nonlinearities. It is very interesting that a surface dark soliton is just like half of a dark soliton in bulk, but not a whole dark soliton propagating along surface. The excitation, propagation, and stability of this type of soliton are studied by using the beam-propagation method. Another interesting thing is that this type of dark soliton can be excited by a planar light beam without a necessary dark notch.

Giant enhancement of surface second-harmonic generation using photorefractive surface waves with diffusion and drift nonlinearities

Giant enhancement of second-harmonic generation (SHG) with 83.4%/W coversion efficiency is obtained, taking advantage of photorefractive surface waves with diffusion and drift nonlinearity. In this method, the self-bending induced by diffusion nonlinearity can be utilized at the surface and can solve the phase-mismatch problem in bulk due to beam self-bending. With drift nonlinearity, an applied external electric filed and background illumination can further constringe surface waves to the surface and consequently enhance SHG, which provides the possibility and flexibility of control.

(2+1)D surface solitons in virtue of the cooperation of nonlocal and local nonlinearities

We introduce a type of (2+1)D surface soliton in virtue of the cooperation of nonlocal and local nonlinearities. Furthermore, taking advantage of diffusion and drift nonlinearity this type of surface soliton is demonstrated theoretically and experimentally in a storintium barium nitrate crystal. The dynamics behavior of the excitation and propagation of this type of surface soliton are studied using the beam-propagation method and the nonlinear equation of light rays.

[Studies on X-ray diffraction pattern of traditional Chinese medicinal materials]

Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) as prescribed by Chinese traditional physicians is usually available as "decoction slices" which calls for a ready method for assessment of quantity or even genuineness. Three groups of TCM drugs (radix Rubiae, bulbus Fritillariae and rhizoma Dioscoreae) were selected by using powder X-ray diffraction analysis with complete absorption profile. Topological regularity and characteristic peaks of the absorption profile were obtained as fingerprint in X-ray diffraction diagrams of the pertinent medicinal materials. We have discovered the similarities of 3 radix Rubiae samples gathered from different localities and their differences with Rubia tinctorum, the similarities and differences between 7 species belonging to Fritillaria Genus, the similarities of 2 rhizoma Dioscoreae samples from different localities and their differences with 2 counterfeits. The result points to a promising prospect in achieving an objective assessment of genuineness at TCM drugs.

[19FNMR in biomedical research]

Nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR) is a noninvasive method which can be directly used to study biological samples in vivo and in vitro. The information that can be obtained is on the molecular level. The high intrinsic sensitivity of 19F for detection and lack of significant 19F background make 19FNMR studies an attractive strategy by introducing fluorinated indicators for in vivo studies. 19FNMR has been used to study many physiological and biochemical indexes including metabolism of drugs containing fluorine, intracellular free ions such as Ca2+ and Mg2+, intracellular pH, oxygen concentration or oxygen tension(pO2), membrane potential, tissue temperature, blood volume and cell volume and so on.

Analysis of beam propagation in thick nonlinear media

We present a theoretical analysis of beam propagation in thick nonlinear media by using the Gaussian decomposition method and considering a thick medium as a stack of thin media. Simple analytic solutions of Z-scan characteristics and optical limiting with thick nonlinear media are obtained. Comparisons of these results with those obtained by use of a distributed-lens model and Gaussian-Laguerre mode decomposition are made. Good agreement is obtained with a distributed-lens model.

[Portazygos disconnection in the treatment of portal hypertension]

Since January 1988 to February 1993, 116 cases of cirrhotic portal hypertension were treated with portazygos disconnection. 37 cases were treated with Hassab's procedure, 36 cases were treated with amplification Hassab's procedure, 33 cases were treated with pericardial devascularization with circular interruption of blood flow of fundus, 10 cases were treated with transthoracic portazygos disconnection. The operative mortality was 6.9%. The hemorrhage rate was 8.6% in one month after the operation. All of 108 patients discharged from the hospital were followed up for 14 months to 75 months. The recurrent hemorrhage rate was 18.5% in the period. The one-year and three-year survival rate after the operation were 94.2% and 81.8%, respectively. The results we have got indicate that amplification Hassab's procedure and transthoracic portazygos disconnection have good effect.

Position dispersion and optical limiting resulting from thermally induced nonlinearities in Chinese tea liquid

We employ the z-scan method to distinguish thermally induced nonlinearities from others by varying the beam waist radius and to determine the thermo-optic coefficient of materials. One can attribute the origin of optical nonlinearities of Chinese tea liquid to laser-heating-induced nonlinear refraction while one irradiates the media with a cw He-Ne laser. We also analyze the influence of position dispersion on optical limiting.