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Ahmad A, Abbas F, Farman M, Hincal E, Ghaffar A, Akgül A, Hassani MK. Flip bifurcation analysis and mathematical modeling of cholera disease by taking control measures. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10927. [PMID: 38740856 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-59640-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
To study the dynamical system, it is necessary to formulate the mathematical model to understand the dynamics of various diseases which are spread in the world wide. The objective of the research study is to assess the early diagnosis and treatment of cholera virus by implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. A mathematical model is built with the hypothesis of strengthening the immune system, and a ABC operator is employed to turn the model into a fractional-order model. A newly developed system SEIBR, which is examined both qualitatively and quantitatively to determine its stable position as well as the verification of flip bifurcation has been made for developed system. The local stability of this model has been explored concerning limited observations, a fundamental aspect of epidemic models. We have derived the reproductive number using next generation method, denoted as " R 0 ", to analyze its impact rate across various sub-compartments, which serves as a critical determinant of its community-wide transmission rate. The sensitivity analysis has been verified according to its each parameters to identify that how much rate of change of parameters are sensitive. Atangana-Toufik scheme is employed to find the solution for the developed system using different fractional values which is advanced tool for reliable bounded solution. Also the error analysis has been made for developed scheme. Simulations have been made to see the real behavior and effects of cholera disease with early detection and treatment by implementing remedial methods without the use of drugs in the community. Also identify the real situation the spread of cholera disease after implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. Such type of investigation will be useful to investigate the spread of virus as well as helpful in developing control strategies from our justified outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aqeel Ahmad
- Department of Mathematics, Ghazi University D G Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, 32200, Pakistan
- Mathematics Research Center, Near East University, Near East Boulevard, 99138, Nicosia, North Cyprus, Cyprus
| | - Fakher Abbas
- Department of Mathematics, Ghazi University D G Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, 32200, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Farman
- Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon.
- Department of Mathematics, Near East University, Near East Boulevard, 99138, Nicosia, North Cyprus, Cyprus.
| | - Evren Hincal
- Mathematics Research Center, Near East University, Near East Boulevard, 99138, Nicosia, North Cyprus, Cyprus
- Department of Mathematics, Near East University, Near East Boulevard, 99138, Nicosia, North Cyprus, Cyprus
| | - Abdul Ghaffar
- Department of Mathematics, Ghazi University D G Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, 32200, Pakistan
| | - Ali Akgül
- Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon
- Department of Mathematics, Art and Science Faculty, Siirt University, 56100, Siirt, Turkey
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Ngingo BL, Mchome ZS, Bwana VM, Chengula A, Mwanyika G, Mremi I, Sindato C, Mboera LEG. Socioecological systems analysis of potential factors for cholera outbreaks and assessment of health system's readiness to detect and respond in Ilemela and Nkasi districts, Tanzania. BMC Health Serv Res 2023; 23:1261. [PMID: 37968626 PMCID: PMC10652585 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-023-10263-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cholera outbreaks are a recurrent issue in Tanzania, with Ilemela and Nkasi districts being particulary affected. The objective of this study was to conduct a socio-ecological system (SES) analysis of cholera outbreaks in these districts, identifying potential factors and assessing the preparedness for cholera prevention and control. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out in Ilemela and Nkasi districts of Mwanza and Rukwa regions, respectively in Tanzania between September and October 2021. A SES framework analysis was applied to identify potential factors associated with cholera outbreaks and assess the readiness of the districts to cholera prevention and control. RESULTS Ilemela is characterised by urban and peri-urban ecosystems while Nkasi is mainly rural. Cholera was reported to disproportionately affect people living along the shores of Lake Victoria in Ilemela and Lake Tanganyika in Nkasi, particularly fishermen and women involved infish trading. The main potential factors identified for cholera outbreaks included defecation in the shallow ends and along the edges of lakes, open defecation, bathing/swimming in contaminated waters and improper waste disposal. The preparedness of both districts for cholera prevention and response was found to be inadequate due to limited laboratory capacity, insufficient human resources, and budget constraints. CONCLUSION People of Ilemela and Nkasi districts remain at significant risk of recurrent cholera outbreaks and the capacity of the districts to detect the disease is limited. Urgent preventive measures, such as conducting considerable community awareness campaigns on personal hygiene and environmental sanitation are needed to alleviate the disease burden and reduce future cholera outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Baraka L Ngingo
- Department of Applied Sciences, Mbeya University of Science and Technology, Mbeya, Tanzania.
| | - Zaina S Mchome
- National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza Research Centre, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Veneranda M Bwana
- National Institute for Medical Research, Amani Research Centre, Muheza, Tanzania
| | - Augustino Chengula
- Department of Microbiology, Parasitology and Biotechnology, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania
| | - Gaspary Mwanyika
- Department of Applied Sciences, Mbeya University of Science and Technology, Mbeya, Tanzania
| | - Irene Mremi
- National Institute for Medical Research, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Calvin Sindato
- National Institute for Medical Research, Tabora Research Centre, Tabora, Tanzania
| | - Leonard E G Mboera
- SACIDS Foundation for One Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania
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Digital Technologies to Enhance Infectious Disease Surveillance in Tanzania: A Scoping Review. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:healthcare11040470. [PMID: 36833004 PMCID: PMC9957254 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11040470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Revised: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 02/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Mobile phones and computer-based applications can speed up disease outbreak detection and control. Hence, it is not surprising that stakeholders in the health sector are becoming more interested in funding these technologies in Tanzania, Africa, where outbreaks occur frequently. The objective of this situational review is, therefore, to summarize available literature on the application of mobile phones and computer-based technologies for infectious disease surveillance in Tanzania and to inform on existing gaps. Four databases were searched-Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Excerpta Medica Database (Embase), PubMed, and Scopus-yielding a total of 145 publications. In addition, 26 publications were obtained from the Google search engine. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were met by 35 papers: they described mobile phone-based and computer-based systems designed for infectious disease surveillance in Tanzania, were published in English between 2012 and 2022, and had full texts that could be read online. The publications discussed 13 technologies, of which 8 were for community-based surveillance, 2 were for facility-based surveillance, and 3 combined both forms of surveillance. Most of them were designed for reporting purposes and lacked interoperability features. While undoubtedly useful, the stand-alone character limits their impact on public health surveillance.
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Hounmanou YMG, Njamkepo E, Rauzier J, Gallandat K, Jeandron A, Kamwiziku G, Porten K, Luquero F, Abedi AA, Rumedeka BB, Miwanda B, Michael M, Okitayemba PW, Saidi JM, Piarroux R, Weill FX, Dalsgaard A, Quilici ML. Genomic Microevolution of Vibrio cholerae O1, Lake Tanganyika Basin, Africa. Emerg Infect Dis 2023; 29:149-153. [PMID: 36573719 PMCID: PMC9796204 DOI: 10.3201/eid2901.220641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Africa's Lake Tanganyika basin is a cholera hotspot. During 2001-2020, Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates obtained from the Democratic Republic of the Congo side of the lake belonged to 2 of the 5 clades of the AFR10 sublineage. One clade became predominant after acquiring a parC mutation that decreased susceptibility to ciprofloxacin.
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Ngwa MC, Ihekweazu C, Okwor T, Yennan S, Williams N, Elimian K, Karaye NY, Bello IW, Sack DA. The cholera risk assessment in Kano State, Nigeria: A historical review, mapping of hotspots and evaluation of contextual factors. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009046. [PMID: 33465091 PMCID: PMC7846125 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2020] [Revised: 01/29/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Nigeria is endemic for cholera since 1970, and Kano State report outbreaks annually with high case fatality ratios ranging from 4.98%/2010 to 5.10%/2018 over the last decade. However, interventions focused on cholera prevention and control have been hampered by a lack of understanding of hotspot Local Government Areas (LGAs) that trigger and sustain yearly outbreaks. The goal of this study was to identify and categorize cholera hotspots in Kano State to inform a national plan for disease control and elimination in the State. We obtained LGA level confirmed and suspected cholera data from 2010 to 2019 from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and Kano State Ministry of Health. Data on inland waterbodies and population numbers were obtained from online sources and NCDC, respectively. Clusters (hotspots) were identified using SaTScan through a retrospective analysis of the data for the ten-year period using a Poisson discrete space-time scan statistic. We also used a method newly proposed by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) to identify and rank hotspots based on two epidemiological indicators including mean annual incidence per 100 000 population of reported cases and the persistence of cholera for the study period. In the ten-year period, 16,461 cholera cases were reported with a case fatality ratio of 3.32% and a mean annual incidence rate of 13.4 cases per 100 000 population. Between 2010 and 2019, the most severe cholera exacerbations occurred in 2014 and 2018 with annual incidence rates of 58.01 and 21.52 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. Compared to 2017, reported cases and deaths increased by 214.56% and 406.67% in 2018. The geographic distribution of outbreaks revealed considerable spatial heterogeneity with the widest in 2014. Space-time clustering analysis identified 18 out of 44 LGAs as high risk for cholera (hotspots) involving both urban and rural LGAs. Cholera clustered around water bodies, and the relative risk of having cholera inside the hotspot LGA were 1.02 to 3.30 times higher than elsewhere in the State. A total of 4,894,144 inhabitants were in these hotspots LGAs. Of these, six LGAs with a total population of 1.665 million had a relative risk greater than 2 compared to the state as a whole. The SaTScan (statistical) and GTFCC methods were in agreement in hotspots identification. This study identified cholera hotspots LGAs in Kano State from 2010-2019. Hotspots appeared in both urban and rural settings. Focusing control strategies on these hotspots will facilitate control and eliminate cholera from the State.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moise Chi Ngwa
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Tochi Okwor
- Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Abuja, Nigeria
| | | | | | - Kelly Elimian
- Department of Microbiology, University of Benin, Nigeria
| | - Nura Yahaya Karaye
- Department of Public Health and Disease Control, Kano State Ministry of Health, Kano, Nigeria
| | - Imam Wada Bello
- Department of Public Health and Disease Control, Ministry of Health Kano, Kano, Nigeria
| | - David A. Sack
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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SHRİVASTAVA S, SHRİVASTAVA P. Azalan küresel kolera eğilimleri: güçlendirilecek alanlar ve ileriye dönük alınacak yol. CUKUROVA MEDICAL JOURNAL 2020. [DOI: 10.17826/cumj.669113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
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