Toward better control of classical swine fever in wild boars: susceptibility of boar-pig hybrids to a recent Japanese isolate and effectiveness of a bait vaccine

Application of machine learning with large-scale data for an effective vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar in Japan

Classical swine fever has been spreading across the country since its re-emergence in Japan in 2018. Gifu Prefecture has been working diligently to control the disease through the oral vaccine dissemination targeting wild boars. Although vaccines were sprayed at 14,000 locations between 2019 and 2020, vaccine ingestion by wild boars was only confirmed at 30% of the locations. Here, we predicted the vaccine ingestion rate at each point by Random Forest modeling based on vaccine dissemination data and created prediction surfaces for the probability of vaccine ingestion by wild boar using spatial interpolation techniques. Consequently, the distance from the vaccination point to the water source was the most important variable, followed by elevation, season, road density, and slope. The area under the curve, model accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for model evaluation were 0.760, 0.678, 0.661, and 0.685, respectively. Areas with high probability of wild boar vaccination were predicted in northern, eastern, and western part of Gifu. Leave-One-Out Cross Validation results showed that Kriging approach was more accurate than the Inverse distance weighting method. We emphasize that effective vaccination strategies based on epidemiological data are essential for disease control and that our proposed tool is also applicable for other wildlife diseases.

Analysis of effective spatial range of oral vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar

Classical swine fever (CSF) re-emerged in Gifu Prefecture, central Japan, in September 2018 and is currently widespread in wild boar populations. Due to its widespread in wild boars, an oral mass vaccination strategy was initiated in March 2019, employing a commercial bait vaccine that is a live attenuated vaccine. To enhance the effectiveness of oral vaccination, it is crucial to determine the vaccine's effective spatial range. This understanding is essential for devising a comprehensive vaccination strategy, which should also include a preliminary investigation of wild boar habitats before vaccination. This study aimed to estimate the effective range of oral vaccination for wild boars against CSF by analyzing the geographical relationship between immune wild boars and vaccination points within the vaccination areas in Gifu Prefecture. This study utilized oral vaccination data from April 2021 to March 2022. The prevalence of CSF infections in wild boars remained below 5% in this period, suggesting limited disease transmission and immune wild boars were considered to be induced by the effect of vaccination. Two vaccination campaigns were conducted during this period, with almost 2000 vaccination points each. To investigate the factors associated with the intensity (i.e., density) of immune wild boar, the nearest distances to a vaccination point and to a susceptible wild boar were evaluated as explanatory variables. The Rhohat procedure and point process model were utilized to analyze the relationship between the intensity of immune wild boars and the explanatory variables. The point process model revealed a significant decrease in the intensity of immune wild boars when the distance from the nearest vaccination point exceeded 500 m, indicating that the effective spatial range of bait vaccination is within 500 m of the vaccination point. Although the distance to the nearest susceptible animal did not show significance in the model, Rhohat plots indicated that the intensity of immune wild boars decreased at distances greater than 1200 m from the nearest susceptible wild boar. This finding highlights the importance of investigating susceptible wild boar populations within a range of at least 1200 m from a vaccination point before implementation. The present study revealed the effective range of oral vaccination for wild boars against CSF and indicated the importance of investigating susceptible wild boar habitats around vaccination points before the implementation of vaccination. These findings may help improve the effectiveness of oral vaccinations.

Quantitative analysis of viremia and viral shedding in pigs infected experimentally with classical swine fever virus isolates obtained from recent outbreaks in Japan

Although classical swine fever occurred in September 2018 for the first time in 26 years, its virulence is thought to be moderate based on field observations by veterinary authorities and our previous experimental infections. We quantified viremia and viral shedding in pigs infected with recent Japanese classical swine fever virus isolates, as well as a highly virulent strain. The results show that pigs infected with the Japanese strains exhibited lower viremia and viral shedding than those infected with the highly virulent strain. However, horizontal transmission occurred in pigs infected with the Japanese strains, similar to those infected with the highly virulent strain. Additionally, viremia and neuralization antibodies coexisted in pigs infected with the Japanese strains, presenting challenges for control measures.

Development of an Effective Oral Vaccine Dissemination Strategy against Classical Swine Fever for Wild Boar in Gifu Prefecture, Japan

In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after more than a quarter of a century. After the first notification on a pig farm, wild boars positive for CSF were found continuously in the surrounding area. Gifu was the first prefecture in Japan to disseminate oral vaccines to wild boars in March 2019, with vaccines spread to approximately 14,000 sites between 2019 and 2020. While these diligent measures seemed to have shown some effectiveness, several vaccine spray sites remained without wild boar emergence. Based on the vaccine dissemination records from these periods, this study conducted a statistical analysis to propose more effective vaccine dissemination sites. First, a generalized linear mixed model was used to identify factors correlated with wild boar emergence. Then, two spatial interpolation methods, inverse distance weighted (IDW) and Kriging, were adopted to create a probability map of wild boar emergence for the entire Gifu Prefecture. The analysis showed a positive correlation between wild boar emergence and the appearance of raccoons, raccoon dogs, and crows as well as road density and wild boar distribution index. In particular, raccoon (OR: 1.83, 95%CI: 1.25–2.68, $p$  < 0.001), raccoon dog (OR: 1.81, 95%CI: 1.25–2.66, $p$  < 0.001), and medium level road density (OR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.04–2.39, $p$  = 0.04) were strongly correlated with wild boar emergence. The spatial interpolation approach resulted in better prediction accuracy for the Kriging method than for IDW by the root mean square error, but both approaches identified a high wild boar appearance probability area in southeastern Gifu and a low appearance probability area in central Gifu. Here we have demonstrated a tool to effectively disperse oral vaccine to wildlife.

Establishment of a Direct PCR Assay for Simultaneous Differential Diagnosis of African Swine Fever and Classical Swine Fever Using Crude Tissue Samples

African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF) are contagious swine diseases that are clinically indistinguishable from each other; hence, reliable test methods for accurate diagnosis and differentiation are highly demanded. By employing a buffer system suitable for crude extraction of nucleic acids together with an impurity-tolerant enzyme, we established a multiplex assay of real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) for simultaneous detection of ASF virus (ASFV), CSF virus (CSFV) and swine internal control derived genes in a sample without the need for prior purification of viral nucleic acids. We applied this method to test serum and tissue samples of infected pigs and wild boars and compared the statistical sensitivities and specificities with those of standard molecular diagnostic methods. When a serum was used as a test material, the newly established assay showed 94.4% sensitivity for both and 97.9 and 91.9% specificity for ASFV and CSFV detection, respectively. In contrast, the results were 100% identical with those obtained by the standard methods when a crude tissue homogenate was used as a test material. The present data indicate that this new assay offers a practical, quick, and reliable technique for differential diagnosis of ASF and CSF where geographical occurrences are increasingly overlapping.

Estimation of the Lethality Rate, Recovery Rate, and Case Fatality Ratio of Classical Swine Fever in Japanese Wild Boar: An Analysis of the Epidemics From September 2018 to March 2019

Understanding the morbidity and lethality of diseases is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasure against the epidemics (e.g., vaccination). To estimate them, detailed data on host population dynamics are required; however, estimating the population size for wildlife is often difficult. We aimed to elucidate the morbidity and lethality of classical swine fever (CSF) currently highly prevalent in the wild boar population in Japan. To this end, we estimated lethality rate, recovery rate, and case fatality ratio (CFR) of CSF without detailed data on the population estimates of wild boar. A mathematical model was constructed to describe the CSF dynamics and population dynamics of wild boar. We fitted the model to the (i) results of the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test for the CSFV gene and the (ii) results of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for the antibody against CSFV in sampled wild boar. In the 280 wild boar sampled from September 2018 to March 2019 in the major CSF-affected area in Japan, the lethality rate and recovery rate of CSF per week were estimated as 0.165 (95% confidence interval: 0.081–0.250) and 0.004 (0–0.009), respectively. While the estimate of lethality rate of CSF was similar with the estimates in previous studies, the recovery rate was lower than those reported previously. CFR was estimated as 0.959 (0.904–0.981) using our estimate of recovery rate. This study is the first to estimate lethality rate of CSF from the dynamics of CSF epidemics in the wild boar population. Since the value of CFR is sensitive to the value of recovery rate, the accuracy in the estimate of recovery rate is a key for the accurate estimation of CFR. A long-term transmission experiment of moderately virulent strains may lead to more accurate estimation of the recovery rate and CFR of CSF.

Immunohistochemical analysis of the distribution of classical swine fever (CSF) viral antigen in boar-pig hybrids and pigs four weeks after infection

We detected the classical swine fever virus (CSFV) antigen in three boar-pig hybrids (hybrids) and three pigs. All animals were experimentally infected with CSFV strain JPN/27/2019 to optimize diagnostic sampling and risk assessment of virus dissemination. Two hybrids died 17- and 19-days post-inoculation (dpi). The other animals were euthanized at 28 dpi. The detection of CSFV antigen at 28 dpi in epithelial cells of the apocrine sweat and sebaceous glands in the skin, salivary glands, mucosal epithelial cells in the rectum, and epithelial cells in the kidney and urinary bladder, suggests that CSFV persists in these tissues and spreads via sweat, saliva, feces, and urine for at least 4 weeks. These findings reveal that hybrids and pigs represent a high risk of virus dissemination four weeks after infection with CSFV strain JPN/27/2019. Prominent CSFV antigens were also detected in hair follicles of the skin. These results suggest that postmortem sampling of animal skin may be effective for CSF diagnosis and can be used to develop a rapid and easy diagnostic method using hair follicles.

Genome variability of classical swine fever virus during the 2018-2020 epidemic in Japan

Although RNA viruses exhibit extensive sequence diversity, the mutation rate must be limited to ensure protein functions that maintain the viral life cycle. Here, we compared the whole genome sequences of 150 isolates of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), obtained from a single epidemic that occurred in Japan during 2018-2020. After the detection of the first case, the disease spread among both farm pigs and wild boars and caused severe impact on the pig industry. To evaluate the diversification of the CSFV genome that eliminated mutations negatively affecting viral transmission, the substitution sets inherited by at least two isolates were separately evaluated as shared single nucleotide variants (SNVs) or shared single amino acid variants (SAVs). Comparisons of 12 protein-coding regions indicated that the percentages of SNVs and SAVs in the multifunctional nonstructural protein NS3 were the lowest, and shared SAVs were not detected in another nonstructural protein, NS4A. This demonstrated purifying negative selection suppressing changes in the protein sequences of NS3 and NS4A during virus transmission in the field. In contrast, a high possibility of nonsynonymous substitution among shared SNVs was detected only in genes encoding the secreted protein E^rns and the nonstructural protein NS2, suggesting positive selection during the epidemic. Mapping of shared SAVs to the three-dimensional structure of E^rns revealed that shared SAVs were not present in the substrate-binding sites but were instead localized to the peripheral region of the protein. These data will support efforts toward the development of diagnostic methods, recombinant vaccines, and antiviral agents targeting conserved and indispensable viral genes.

Epidemiological analysis of classical swine fever in wild boars in Japan

Background

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a contagious disease of pigs and wild boars that is transmitted through direct/indirect contact between animals or CSF virus-contaminated fomites. When the disease re-emerged in 2018 in Japan, a CSF-infected wild boar was reported shortly after the initial pig farm outbreak; subsequently, the disease spread widely. To control the disease spread among wild boars, intensive capturing, fencing, and oral bait vaccination were implemented with concomitant virological and serological surveillance. This study aimed to describe the disease spread in the wild boar population in Japan from September 2018, when the first case was reported, to March 2020, based on the surveillance data. We conducted statistical analyses using a generalized linear mixed model to identify factors associated with CSF infection among wild boars. Moreover, we descriptively assessed the effect of oral bait vaccination, which started in March 2019 in some municipalities in the affected areas.

Results

We observed a faster CSF infection spread in the wild boar population in Japan compared with the CSF epidemics in European countries. The infection probability was significantly higher in dead and adult animals. The influence of the multiple rounds of oral bait vaccination was not elucidated by the statistical modeling analyses. There was a decrease and increase in the proportion of infected and immune animals, respectively; however, the immunization in piglets remained insufficient after vaccination for 1 year.

Conclusions

Conditions regarding the wild boar habitat, including forest continuity, higher wild boar population density, and a larger proportion of susceptible piglets, were addressed to increase the infection risk in the wild boar population. These findings could improve the national control strategy against the CSF epidemic among wild boars.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12917-021-02891-0.

Efficacy of Oral Vaccine against Classical Swine Fever in Wild Boar and Estimation of the Disease Dynamics in the Quantitative Approach

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) in the wild boar population has been spreading in Japan, alongside outbreaks on pigs, since classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in September 2018. The vaccination using oral bait vaccine was initially implemented in Gifu prefecture in March 2019. In the present study, antibodies against CSFV in wild boar were assessed in 1443 captured and dead wild boars in Gifu prefecture. After the implementation of oral vaccination, the increase of the proportion of seropositive animals and their titer in wild boars were confirmed. Quantitative analysis of antigen and antibodies against CSFV in wild boar implies potential disease diversity in the wild boar population. Animals with status in high virus replication (Ct < 30) and non- or low-immune response were confirmed and were sustained at a certain level after initial oral vaccination. Through continuous vaccination periods, the increase of seroprevalence among wild boar and the decrease of CSFV-positive animals were observed. The epidemiological analysis based on the quantitative virological outcomes could provide more information on the efficacy of oral vaccination and dynamics of CSF in the wild boar population, which will help to improve the implementation of control measures for CSF in countries such as Japan and neighboring countries.

A Critical Review about Different Vaccines against Classical Swine Fever Virus and Their Repercussions in Endemic Regions

Classical swine fever (CSF) is, without any doubt, one of the most devasting viral infectious diseases affecting the members of Suidae family, which causes a severe impact on the global economy. The reemergence of CSF virus (CSFV) in several countries in America, Asia, and sporadic outbreaks in Europe, sheds light about the serious concern that a potential global reemergence of this disease represents. The negative aspects related with the application of mass stamping out policies, including elevated costs and ethical issues, point out vaccination as the main control measure against future outbreaks. Hence, it is imperative for the scientific community to continue with the active investigations for more effective vaccines against CSFV. The current review pursues to gather all the available information about the vaccines in use or under developing stages against CSFV. From the perspective concerning the evolutionary viral process, this review also discusses the current problematic in CSF-endemic countries.