Can bovine TB be eradicated from the Republic of Ireland? Could this be achieved by 2030?

Risk-Based Targeting of Animals for Ancillary Testing during a Bovine Tuberculosis Breakdown Is Associated with a Reduced Time to Test Failure: Indirect Evidence of Mycobacterium bovis Exposure?

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) continues to have significant economic and veterinary health impacts on cattle herds where the disease remains endemic. The continual tailoring of policies to address such maintenance requires an in-depth analysis of national data, underpinning new control strategies. In Ireland, when outbreaks occur, ancillary testing of herd mates deemed to be at the highest risk of exposure to reactors is undertaken using the interferon gamma (GIF) test. This highest risk cohort was hypothesised to be of a higher future risk despite this ancillary testing. We used a dataset from Ireland to model bovine test failure to the comparative tuberculin skin test using a survival analysis (observations: 39,248). Our primary exposure of interest was whether an animal that tested negative had a GIF test after the disclosure of infection within a herd during a bTB breakdown. There was evidence that animals with a negative GIF test during a breakdown had an increased risk of failing a test relative to other animals from the same herds without this exposure. The time to failure was 48.8% (95%CI: 38.3-57.5%) shorter for the exposed group relative to the unexposed group during a two-year follow-up period (2019-2022; time ratio: 0.51; 95%CI: 0.43-0.62; p < 0.001). The results from this study suggest that animals who were GIF-tested, having been deemed to have a higher risk of exposure, subsequently had shorter time-to-test failure periods. The absolute numbers of failure are small (only 2.5% of animals go on to fail during 2-year follow-up). Importantly, however, a high proportion of these high-risk herds included in the dataset failed at least one test at the follow-up (21/54 herds), impacting breakdown duration or recurrence. Such risk-informed targeting of animals could be utilised in future control policies, though further research is warranted.

An epidemiological investigation into the reasons for high bovine tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds of the Burren, Ireland, prior to 2020

Herd-level bovine tuberculosis (bTB) incidence was examined in the Burren, an area in the west of Ireland where herd owners practice distinctive transhumance practices, with upland winter grazing. Prior to the initiation of our study in 2020, bTB incidence had for many years been unusually high in the Burren in comparison with the rest of the country, although the most recent figures have come down to being closer to the national average. Using data from the period prior to 2020, we mapped bTB infection in Burren herds alongside a range of indicators thought to have an association with it - herd size, herd density, herd type, cattle movement, and badger (Meles meles) population and control data, as well as rainfall and altitude. We also looked at how summary statistics for these variables differed when Burren herds with a history of bTB were compared to other Burren herds, as well as bTB positive and negative herds from outside the Burren. We found that for many indicators Burren herds would be expected to be low risk when compared to other herds in Ireland. An exception to this was for rainfall: hot spot areas for bTB in the Burren were found in areas of higher rainfall, on average herds in the Burren experienced more rainfall than those outside it, and bTB herds in the Burren experienced higher rainfall than non-bTB herds. Separately, for Burren herds only, a logistic regression model was developed to explain bTB breakdown occurrence using a matched case-control approach. Cases were herds which had experienced a new bTB breakdown between 2015 and 2019 (n = 260) and these were matched on herd type and herd size with the same number of herds not experiencing a breakdown during this period. This showed that, of a range of exogenous variables, rainfall was the most strongly associated with herd-level bTB incidence. These results suggest that high levels of exposure to inclement weather, and/or better environmental survival of Mycobacterium bovis in the environment, may contribute to high bTB rates in the Burren. However, as rainfall showed a highly aggregated distribution, this relationship may be due to an unmeasured factor correlated with it. Mapping and graphical output suggested that, although herd sizes in the Burren were on average lower than nationally, within the Burren they were higher in areas of higher prevalence, suggesting that mechanisms associated with herd size, such as increased contacts between and within herd, and with wildlife, may also play a role.

Private veterinarians' views of the Irish bovine TB eradication programme

There is limited understanding of Private Veterinary Practitioners' (PVPs) perceptions of, opinions about and attitudes towards the Irish Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) eradication programme. Understanding their attitudes and behaviors towards the bTB eradication programme is both timely and crucial as their actions have a great influence on the effectiveness and sustainability of the programme itself. To date, PVPs have been consulted about how they view their role in the programme, however, less is known about the challenges they face in carrying out good quality bTB testing, and how likely they feel the programme will succeed to eradicate bTB in the future. The results from this study represent a good part of the probable sphere of perceptions, behaviors, attitudes and knowledge of the respective study population and several key critical points that are believed to have hindered the success of the bTB eradication programme in Ireland to date. This study progressed our understanding of the reasons for why farmers are demotivated by and disconnected with the Irish bTB eradication programme according to PVPs, how PVPs feel challenged in their role carrying out bTB testing, and their views on how, if possible, bTB can be eradicated in the future. Their insights will influence how the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) interacts with PVPs and farmers in the future with respect to the bTB and the eradication programme.

The impact of changing the cut-off threshold of the interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) assay for diagnosing bovine tuberculosis in Ireland

In Ireland, the interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) assay is routinely used as an ancillary test interpreted in parallel with the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT) to maximize the detection of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infected animals. Up until 2018, a positive test result was recorded in the IFN-γ ELISA assay following whole blood stimulation with purified protein derivative (PPD)-bovine (B), PPD-avian (A) and nil sample (N), using the interpretation criteria, B-N > 50 optical density units (OD), B > 100 and B-A > 0. Following a review of available data, the threshold of the B-A component changed to B-A > 80. As predicting the impact of changing the cut-off thresholds for the IFN-γ test de novo is challenging, the aims of this study were to follow animals that initially tested negative using the new IFN-γ assay interpretation criteria and investigate their future risk of disclosure with bTB, with a focus on animals that otherwise would have been removed when using the older interpretation criteria (0 < B-A ≤ 80). Enrolled animals (n = 28,669 cattle from 527 herds) were followed up for two years (2019-2021), or to point of bTB detection or death. At the end of follow-up, 1151 (4.0%) of enrolled animals were bTB cases. The majority of these cases were diagnosed using SICTT (80.5%). The cumulative number of positive animals that would have been removed if the old cut-off (0 < B-A ≤ 80) was used amounted to 1680 cattle (5.9% of the enrolled cohort). Of these, 127 (7.5%) were diagnosed with bTB during follow-up. In contrast, 1024 of the 1151 cattle which subsequently tested positive during the study period following a negative IFN-γ test would not have been identified with the old or new IFN-γ cut-off criteria. Survival analysis showed that animals that would have been removed under the old interpretation criteria were at increased risk of a positive diagnosis with bTB during follow-up compared to other test negative animals. A newly developed risk prediction model (using a Cox proportional hazard model) showed that age, animal number of SICTT tests, number of inconclusive SICTT tests, B-A (IFN-γ assay), B-N (IFN-γ assay), animals from store herds and the percentage of the rest of the herd that were positive during the breakdown were statistically significantly associated with bTB detection. However, inclusion of the IFN-γ OD variables did not show added value in terms of prediction performance of the model.

Detection of Mycobacterium bovis in nasal swabs from communal goats (Capra hircus) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Animal tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, presents a significant threat to both livestock industries and public health. Mycobacterium bovis tests rely on detecting antigen specific immune responses, which can be influenced by exposure to non-tuberculous mycobacteria, test technique, and duration and severity of infection. Despite advancements in direct M. bovis detection, mycobacterial culture remains the primary diagnostic standard. Recent efforts have explored culture-independent PCR-based methods for identifying mycobacterial DNA in respiratory samples. This study aimed to detect M. bovis in nasal swabs from goats (Capra hircus) cohabiting with M. bovis-infected cattle in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Nasal swabs were collected from 137 communal goats exposed to M. bovis-positive cattle and 20 goats from a commercial dairy herd without M. bovis history. Swabs were divided into three aliquots for analysis. The first underwent GeneXpert® MTB/RIF Ultra assay (Ultra) screening. DNA from the second underwent mycobacterial genus-specific PCR and Sanger sequencing, while the third underwent mycobacterial culture followed by PCR and sequencing. Deep sequencing identified M. bovis DNA in selected Ultra-positive swabs, confirmed by region-of-difference (RD) PCR. Despite no other evidence of M. bovis infection, viable M. bovis was cultured from three communal goat swabs, confirmed by PCR and sequencing. Deep sequencing of DNA directly from swabs identified M. bovis in the same culture-positive swabs and eight additional communal goats. No M. bovis was found in commercial dairy goats, but various NTM species were detected. This highlights the risk of M. bovis exposure or infection in goats sharing pastures with infected cattle. Rapid Ultra screening shows promise for selecting goats for further M. bovis testing. These techniques may enhance M. bovis detection in paucibacillary samples and serve as valuable research tools.

Investigation of the association between the Enferplex bovine tuberculosis antibody test and the future risk of bovine tuberculosis in irish cattle in infected herds: a pilot field study

The Single Intradermal Comparative Tuberculin Test (SICTT) and the interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) assay are the approved diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Ireland. The aim of this pilot study was to explore if there was any added diagnostic benefit from applying the Enferplex bTB test (an antibody test) in severe bTB herd breakdowns after the removal of cattle that had tested positive to the SICTT and the IFN-γ test. In addition to the normal bTB testing and management protocols, the animals in these herds that tested negative to SICTT and the IFN-γ test were followed forward for a period of two years. All animals were tested by Enferplex at enrolment. The time to subsequent bTB detection (diagnosed with SICTT/IFN-γ tests or detection of visible lesions at routine slaughter) for animals that tested positive or negative to the Enferplex bTB test at the start of the study was compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox based survival models. Of the 484 enrolled animals (from 11 herds), 171 (35.3%) and 151 (31.1%) initially tested positive in the Enferplex assay under the high sensitivity and high specificity interpretation settings respectively. The results of the survival analysis showed that there was no difference in the survival time to a positive diagnosis with bTB during the follow-up period between animals initially classified as positive and negative by the Enferplex test. Further research is warranted to explore the potential benefit of using the Enferplex test in other scenarios.

The Irish bTB eradication programme: combining stakeholder engagement and research-driven policy to tackle bovine tuberculosis

A new Irish bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication strategy was launched in 2021. The strategy was formulated following extensive discussions with stakeholders, formal reviews of several aspects of the existing bTB policy and relevant inputs from the latest scientific research projects. A stakeholder discussion body, the TB Forum, had been established in 2018 and this continues under the new strategy, supported by three working groups (scientific, financial and implementation). The strategy sets out actions to address cattle-to-cattle and badger-to-cattle bTB transmission, along with actions to improve farm biosecurity and empower farmers to make their own choices to reduce bTB risk.Large scale vaccination of badgers has been rolled out under the new strategy, with over 20,000 km2 covered by the vaccination programme and 6,586 badgers captured in vaccination areas in 2021. Vaccination efforts have been complemented by intensive communications campaigns, including a web enabled software application ("app") enabling farmers to report the location of badger setts.Cattle which test inconclusive to the tuberculin skin test have been re-tested using a gamma interferon blood test since April 2021, enabling truly infected cattle to be identified more effectively due to the higher sensitivity of this test. An enhanced oversight process has been put in place for herds experiencing extended or repeat bTB breakdowns. Whole genome sequencing is being used to investigate links between breakdowns, with the results supporting operational decision making in case management.Communications, including biosecurity advice, are co-designed with stakeholders, in order to improve their effectiveness. A programme involving veterinary practitioners providing tailored biosecurity bTB advice to their clients was established in 2021 and was rolled out nationally during 2022.A core element of the new strategy is the continual improvement of policies in response to changing bTB risks, informed by scientific research and then implemented with stakeholder consultation.

Assessing the potential impact of applying a higher sensitivity test to selected cattle populations for the control of bovine tuberculosis in England

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) continues to be the costliest, most complex animal health problem in England. The effectiveness of the test-and-slaughter policy is hampered by the imperfect sensitivity of the surveillance tests. Up to half of recurrent incidents within 24 months of a previous one could have been due to undetected infected cattle not being removed. Improving diagnostic testing with more sensitive tests, like the interferon (IFN)-gamma test, is one of the government's top priorities. However, blanket deployment of such tests could result in more false positive results (due to imperfect specificity), together with logistical and cost-efficiency challenges. A targeted application of such tests in higher prevalence scenarios, such as a subpopulation of high-risk herds, could mitigate against these challenges. We developed classification machine learning algorithms (using 80% of 2012-2019 bTB surveillance data as the training set) to evaluate the deployment of IFN-gamma testing in high-risk herds (i.e. those at risk of an incident in England) in two testing data sets: i) the remaining 20% of 2012-19 data, and ii) 2020 bTB surveillance data. The resulting model, classification tree analysis, with an area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) > 95, showed a 73% sensitivity and a 97% specificity in the 2012-2019 test dataset. Used on 2020 data, it predicted eight percent (3 510 of 41 493) of eligible active herds as at-risk of a bTB incident, the majority of them (66% or 2 328 herds) experiencing at least one. Whilst all predicted at-risk herds could have preventive measures applied, the additional application of IFN-gamma test in parallel interpretation to the statutory skin test, if the risk materialises, would have resulted in 8 585 additional IFN-gamma reactors detected (a 217% increase over the 2 710 IFN-gamma reactors already detected by tests carried out). Only 18% (330 of 1 819) of incidents in predicted high-risk herds had the IFN-gamma test applied in 2020. We therefore conclude that this methodology provides a better way of directing the application of the IFN-gamma test towards the high-risk subgroup of herds. Classification tree analysis ensured the systematic identification of high-risk herds to consistently apply additional measures in a targeted way. This could increase the detection of infected cattle more efficiently, preventing recurrence and accelerating efforts to achieve eradication by 2038. This methodology has wider application, like targeting improved biosecurity measures in avian influenza at-risk farms to limit damage to the industry in future outbreaks.

Are predictions of bovine tuberculosis-infected herds unbiased and precise?

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is prevalent among livestock and wildlife in many countries including New Zealand (NZ), a country which aims to eradicate bTB by 2055. This study evaluates predictions related to the numbers of livestock herds with bTB in NZ from 2012 to 2021 inclusive using both statistical and mechanistic (causal) modelling. Additionally, this study made predictions for the numbers of infected herds between 2022 and 2059. This study introduces a new graphical method representing the causal criteria of strength of association, such as R2, and the consistency of predictions, such as mean squared error. Mechanistic modelling predictions were, on average, more frequently (3 of 4) unbiased than statistical modelling predictions (1 of 4). Additionally, power model predictions were, on average, more frequently (3 of 4) unbiased than exponential model predictions (1 of 4). The mechanistic power model, along with annual updating, had the highest R2 and the lowest mean squared error of predictions. It also exhibited the closest approximation to unbiased predictions. Notably, significantly biased predictions were all underestimates. Based on the mechanistic power model, the biological eradication of bTB from New Zealand is predicted to occur after 2055. Disease eradication planning will benefit from annual updating of future predictions.

'Good farmers' and 'real vets': social identities, behaviour change and the future of bovine tuberculosis eradication

This paper considers the role of social research and human behaviour in attempts to eradicate bTB. Future attempts to eradicate bTB are likely to involve an increasing range of sophisticated technologies. However, the acceptance and use of these technologies is likely to depend on a range of behavioural incentives. The use of appropriate behavioural nudges may facilitate bTB eradication, but the paper contends that of more value are socio-cultural approaches to understanding behaviour. Specifically, the concepts of the 'good farmer' and 'real vets' are discussed to show how bTB eradication is dependent on social identities. In conclusion, the paper outlines four key roles for social research in assisting with future bTB eradication policies.

bTB eradication in Ireland: where to from here?

BACKGROUND

In an earlier paper from 2019, this author concluded that successful eradication of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) from Ireland by 2030 would be unlikely, given control strategies in place at that time plus the addition of badger vaccination. He argued that additional measures will be needed, broadly focusing on bTB risks from wildlife, risk-based cattle controls, and industry commitment. This paper considers these points in further detail.

MAIN TEXT

Ongoing monitoring of the badger vaccination programme (which is progressively being rolled out nationally) and associated research will be critical, with a focus both on programme inputs and outcomes. The direct contribution of cattle movements to bTB restrictions in Ireland has been evaluated. However, it is the indirect role of cattle movements in bTB restrictions that is likely of greater importance, particularly towards the latter phase of the eradication programme. In other national programmes, a range of risk-based approaches have been used to address the challenge of residual infection in cattle (that is, the presence of animals with persistent but undetected infection), and similar approaches are needed in Ireland. A number of authors have highlighted the critical importance of industry commitment to programme success, and the key role of programme governance to achieving this. In this commentary, the author briefly considers experiences from Australia and New Zealand in this regard. The author also reflects on the challenge of uncertainty in decision-making, the relevance to Ireland of lessons from other countries, and the potential contribution of new methodologies in support of the national programme.

CONCLUSIONS

'The tragedy of the horizon' was a term first used in the context of climate change, referring to the costs imposed on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentives to fix. This concept is equally relevant to bTB eradication in Ireland, where current decisions will have long-term consequences for future generations, including both the general public (through the Exchequer) and future Irish farmers.

Revisiting the relative effectiveness of slaughterhouses in Ireland to detect tuberculosis lesions in cattle (2014-2018)

Slaughterhouse or meat factory surveillance to detect factory lesions (FL) at slaughter is an important part of the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication program in Ireland. The objective of this study was to quantify the effectiveness of Irish slaughterhouses or factories in submitting FL and the proportion of those submitted FL confirmed as being due to bTB in slaughtered cattle, and to identify and quantify the association of risk factors at animal, herd, and factory level with FL submission and confirmation. The data consisted of 6,611,854 animals slaughtered in Irish factories from 2014 to 2018 obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine (DAFM), Ireland. Selected risk factors for this study included factory, year and month of slaughter, age, sex, breed, animal movement, ever inconclusive in the standard or severe skin test, herd type, herd size, and bTB history. The association of each risk factor on the FL submission and confirmation risk were analysed with univariable followed by a multivariable logistic regression with herd as random effect. Factories were ranked and compared based on the odds ratio (OR) obtained from the univariable (crude OR) and multivariable (adjusted OR) analysis. The average submission risk of all factories was 20 per 10,000 animals slaughtered, ranging from 1 to 42 per 10,000 animals slaughtered, and the average confirmation risk over all factories was 40.72%, ranging from 0.00 to 61.84%. The odds of submitting and confirming FL as bTB positive were higher in animals over eight years old compared to animals 1–2 years old (OR = 1.91, 95 CI 95% 1.77–2.06 and OR = 4.05, 95% CI 3.17–5.18, respectively), and were higher in animals that ever had inconclusive skin result based on severe interpretation (OR = 2.83, 95% CI 2.44–3.27 and OR = 4.48, 95% CI 2.66–7.54, respectively), animals originating from sucklers herds (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.14 and OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.11–1.55, respectively), or herds with bTB history in the past three years (OR = 4.46, 95% CI 4.28–4.66 and OR = 319.90, 95% CI 237.98–430.04, respectively). The odds of FL submission and confirmation decreased as the herd size increased (OR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.96 and OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.78–0.86, respectively). An inverse relationship of FL submission and confirmation was present for variable sex and inconclusive skin result with standard interpretation, where submission odds were higher in males (OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.00–1.10) and ever inconclusive animals (OR = 74.24, 95% CI 69.39–79.43), although the confirmation odds were lower (males OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.56–0.76; ever inconclusive OR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.36–0.54). The crude and adjusted ranking of factories did not differ greatly for FL submission, indicating that factory-related factors may contribute significantly to the submission variation between factories. However, a substantial difference between crude and adjusted confirmation ranking was present which may indicate that animal and herd-related factors were associated to variation in confirmation risk between factories.

Disturbance Ecology Meets Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) Epidemiology: A Before-and-After Study on the Association between Forest Clearfelling and bTB Herd Risk in Cattle Herds

Disturbance ecology refers to the study of discrete processes that disrupt the structure or dynamics of an ecosystem. Such processes can, therefore, affect wildlife species ecology, including those that are important pathogen hosts. We report on an observational before-and-after study on the association between forest clearfelling and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) herd risk in cattle herds, an episystem where badgers (Meles meles) are the primary wildlife spillover host. The study design compared herd bTB breakdown risk for a period of 1 year prior to and after exposure to clearfelling across Ireland at sites cut in 2015-2017. The percent of herds positive rose from 3.47% prior to clearfelling to 4.08% after exposure. After controlling for confounders (e.g., herd size, herd type), we found that cattle herds significantly increased their odds of experiencing a bTB breakdown by 1.2-times (95%CIs: 1.07-1.36) up to 1 year after a clearfell risk period. Disturbance ecology of wildlife reservoirs is an understudied area with regards to shared endemic pathogens. Epidemiological observational studies are the first step in building an evidence base to assess the impact of such disturbance events; however, such studies are limited in inferring the mechanism for any changes in risk observed. The current cohort study suggested an association between clearfelling and bTB risk, which we speculate could relate to wildlife disturbance affecting pathogen spillback to cattle, though the study design precludes causal inference. Further studies are required. However, ultimately, integration of epidemiology with wildlife ecology will be important for understanding the underlying mechanisms involved, and to derive suitable effective management proposals, if required.

Investigating Farm Fragmentation as a Risk Factor for Bovine Tuberculosis in Cattle Herds: A Matched Case-Control Study from Northern Ireland

Bovine tuberculosis remains a challenging endemic pathogen of cattle in many parts of the globe. Spatial clustering of Mycoacterium bovis molecular types in cattle suggests that local factors are the primary drivers of spread. Northern Ireland’s agricultural landscape is comprised of highly fragmented farms, distributed across spatially discontinuous land parcels, and these highly fragmented farms are thought to facilitate localised spread. We conducted a matched case control study to quantify the risks of bovine tuberculosis breakdown with farm area, farm fragmentation, fragment dispersal, and contact with neighbouring herds. Whilst our results show small but significant increases in breakdown risk associated with each factor, these relationships were strongly confounded with the number of contiguous neighbours with bovine tuberculosis. Our key finding was that every infected neighbour led to an increase in the odds of breakdown by 40% to 50%, and that highly fragmented farms were almost twice as likely to have a bTB positive neighbour compared to nonfragmented farms. Our results suggest that after controlling for herd size, herd type, spatial and temporal factors, farm fragmentation increasingly exposes herds to infection originating from first-order spatial neighbours. Given Northern Ireland’s particularly fragmented landscape, and reliance on short-term leases, our data support the hypothesis that between-herd contiguous spread is a particularly important component of the region’s bovine tuberculosis disease system.

Is there an association between road building and bovine tuberculosis herd risk? A three time-point study in Ireland, 2011-2019

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis which results in a significant economic cost to cattle industries and governments where it is endemic. In Ireland, the European badger is the main wildlife reservoir of infection. In this study, we investigated whether (motorway) road construction was associated with an increased risk of bTB in associated cattle herds. For this study, we considered three observation periods: pre-construction (2011-2014), construction (2015-2017) and post-construction (2018-2019). We selected 1543 herds situated, based on proximity, between >50 m and <5 km of the roadworks, and extracted information about their herd-size, herd-type, inward animal movements, bTB history, and distance to the roadworks. Generalized linear mixed models were performed, whose outcome were whether a herd experienced a bTB breakdown with ≥1 or ≥3 standard reactor/s, respectively. Herds located at a distance of >3 km from the roadworks were found to be at reduced risk of a bTB breakdown over the construction period compared with those situated within 1 km of the roadworks for ≥1 reactor/s (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.595, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 0.354-0.999) or ≥3 reactors (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.431, 95 % CI: 0.174-1.067). Other previously reported risk factors such as inward movements, herd-size and herd-type were also associated with bTB risk in the final models (≥1 reactor/s and ≥3 reactors). These findings appear to be consistent with bTB breakdowns being a consequence as opposed to coincident to road construction, given the temporal and spatial consistency of the evidence. The potential for badger social group disturbance leading to the spatial spread of infection to cattle herds, as previously described in the United Kingdom, could be a hypothetical mechanism to explain these findings. However, our findings are not consistent with previous Irish studies, including recent work from another road construction project, albeit running alongside and cross over an existing road rather than construction of a new road as in this case, or experiences from national targeted badger removal. Further research is warranted to verify this pattern occurs elsewhere, and the underlying biological mechanism. Until further data are available, we recommend that badgers are vaccinated, as a precautionary measure, in advance of the commencement of major roadworks.

Spatio-temporal models of bovine tuberculosis in the Irish cattle population, 2012-2019

INTRODUCTION

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important zoonotic disease which has serious and sometimes fatal effects on both human and non-human animals. In many countries it is endemic in the cattle population and has a considerable economic impact through losses in productivity and impacts on trade. The incidence rate in Ireland varies by herd and location and it is hoped that statistical disease-mapping models accounting for both spatio-temporal correlation and covariates might contribute towards explaining this variation.

METHODS

Ireland was divided into equally sized hexagons for computational efficiency (n = 997). Different spatio-temporal random-effects models (e.g. negative binomial Besag-York-Mollié) were explored, using comprehensive data from the national bTB eradication programme to examine the association between covariates and the number of bTB cattle. Leveraging a Bayesian framework, model parameter estimates were obtained using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach. Exceedance probabilities were calculated to identify spatial clusters of cases.

RESULTS

Models accounting for spatial correlation significantly improved model fit in comparison to non-spatial versions where independence between regions was assumed. In our final model at hexagon level, the number of cattle (IR = 1.142, CrI: 1.108 - 1.177 per 1000), the capture of badgers (IR = 5.951, CrI: 4.482 - 7.912), percentage of forest cover (IR = 1.031, CrI: 1.020 - 1.042) and number of farm fragments (IR = 1.012, CrI: 1.009 - 1.015 per 10 fragments) were all associated with an increased incidence of bTB. Habitat suitability for badgers, percentage of dairy herds and the number of cattle movements into the herd were not. As an epidemiological tool and to suggest future work, an interactive online dashboard was developed to monitor disease progression and disseminate results to the general public.

CONCLUSION

Accounting for spatial correlation is an important consideration in disease mapping applications and is often ignored in statistical models examining bTB risk factors. Over time, the same regions in Ireland generally show highest incidences of bTB and allocation of more resources to these areas may be needed to combat the disease. This study highlights national bTB incidence rates. Shifting from national level analysis to smaller geographical regions may help identify localised high-risk areas.

RNA-Seq Transcriptome Analysis of Peripheral Blood From Cattle Infected With Mycobacterium bovis Across an Experimental Time Course

Bovine tuberculosis, caused by infection with members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, particularly Mycobacterium bovis, is a major endemic disease affecting cattle populations worldwide, despite the implementation of stringent surveillance and control programs in many countries. The development of high-throughput functional genomics technologies, including RNA sequencing, has enabled detailed analysis of the host transcriptome to M. bovis infection, particularly at the macrophage and peripheral blood level. In the present study, we have analysed the transcriptome of bovine whole peripheral blood samples collected at −1 week pre-infection and +1, +2, +6, +10, and +12 weeks post-infection time points. Differentially expressed genes were catalogued and evaluated at each post-infection time point relative to the −1 week pre-infection time point and used for the identification of putative candidate host transcriptional biomarkers for M. bovis infection. Differentially expressed gene sets were also used for examination of cellular pathways associated with the host response to M. bovis infection, construction of de novo gene interaction networks enriched for host differentially expressed genes, and time-series analyses to identify functionally important groups of genes displaying similar patterns of expression across the infection time course. A notable outcome of these analyses was identification of a 19-gene transcriptional biosignature of infection consisting of genes increased in expression across the time course from +1 week to +12 weeks post-infection.

Future Risk of Bovine Tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) Breakdown in Cattle Herds 2013-2018: A Dominance Analysis Approach

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a significant endemic pathogen of cattle herds, despite multi-decadal control programmes being in place in several countries. Understanding the risks of future bTB breakdown (BD) and the associated characteristics of herds and index breakdowns could help inform risk categorisation. Such risk categories could then contribute to tailored management and policies. Here, we estimated the future risk of herd BD for the cohort of herds that were derestricted during 2013 in Ireland using multivariable logit regression models, with a dominance analysis approach. One third of herds that were derestricted in 2013 experienced a breakdown during the follow-up five year period (1469/4459; 33%). BD length was a significant predictor of future risk, primarily driven by long BDs > 230 days relative to short BDs < 130 days (OR 95%CI: 1.157–1.851), as was having had a previous BD (OR 95%CI: 1.012–1.366). Herd-size was the dominant predictor of future risk (accounted for 46% of predicted variance), suggesting significant increase in risk of future breakdown with increasing (log) herd-size (OR 95%CI: 1.378–1.609). There was significant spatial variation in future risk across counties, and it was the second most dominant predictor of future risk (25% of predicted variance). The size of index breakdowns was not a strong predictor of future risk over a 5-year period. These findings can inform a risk-based policy development.

Test and vaccinate or remove: Methodology and preliminary results from a badger intervention research project

BACKGROUND

In the British Isles, it is generally accepted that the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) plays a role in the maintenance of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. Non-selective culling is the main intervention method deployed in controlling bTB in badgers along with smaller scale Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination areas. This paper describes the use of selective badger culling combined with vaccination in a research intervention trial.

METHODS

In Northern Ireland, a 100 km² area was subjected to a test and vaccinate or remove (TVR) badger intervention over a 5-year period. Badgers were individually identified and tested on an annual basis. Physical characteristics and clinical samples were obtained from each unique badger capture event.

RESULTS

A total of 824 badgers were trapped with 1520 capture/sampling events. There were no cage-related injuries to the majority of badgers (97%). A low level of badger removal was required (4.1%-16.4% annually), while 1412 BCG vaccinations were administered. A statistically significant downward trend in the proportion of test positive badgers was observed.

CONCLUSION

This is the first project to clearly demonstrate the feasibility of cage side testing of badgers. The results provide valuable data on the logistics and resources required to undertake a TVR approach to control Mycobacterium bovis in badgers.

Bovine Tuberculosis: The Emergence of a New Wildlife Maintenance Host in Ireland

Despite advances in herd management, tuberculosis (TB) continues to affect ~0. 5% of Ireland's national cattle herd annually. It is clear that any "final" eradication of TB in cattle will need to address all TB maintenance hosts in the same environment. In Ireland and the UK, European Badgers (Meles meles) are a known TB maintenance host, while deer are recognised as spillover hosts. However, deer have been identified as maintenance hosts in other countries and Sika deer, specifically, have been identified with TB in Ireland. We examined the power of cattle, badger and Sika deer densities (at the county level) to predict cattle TB-breakdowns in Ireland, at both the herd and the individual level, using data collected between 2000 and 2018. Our hypothesis was that any positive correlations between deer density and cattle TB-breakdowns would implicate deer as TB maintenance hosts. Using linear multiple regressions, we found positive correlations between deer density and cattle TB-breakdowns at both the herd and individual levels. Since Sika deer in County Wicklow are known to have TB, we ran further regressions against subsets of data which excluded individual Irish counties. Analyses excluding Wicklow data showed much weaker correlations between Sika deer density and cattle TB-breakdowns at both the herd and individual levels, suggesting that these correlations are strongest in County Wicklow. A similar effect for badger density was seen in County Leitrim. While locally high densities of Sika deer persist in Irish counties, we believe they should be considered an integral part of any TB-control programme for those areas.

A Bayesian analysis of a Test and Vaccinate or Remove study to control bovine tuberculosis in badgers (Meles meles)

A novel five year Test and Vaccinate or Remove (TVR) wildlife research intervention project in badgers (Meles meles) commenced in 2014 in a 100km2 area of Northern Ireland. It aimed to increase the evidence base around badgers and bovine TB and help create well-informed and evidence-based strategies to address the issue of cattle-to-cattle spread and spread between cattle and badgers. It involved real-time trap-side testing of captured badgers and vaccinating those that tested negative for bTB (BadgerBCG-BCG Danish 1331) and removal of those that tested bTB positive using the Dual-Path Platform VetTB test (DPP) for cervids (Chembio Diagnostic Systems, Medford, NY USA). Four diagnostic tests were utilised within the study interferon gamma release assay (IGRA), culture (clinical samples and post mortem), DPP using both whole blood and DPP using serum. BCG Sofia (SL222) was used in the final two years because of supply issues with BadgerBCG. Objectives for this study were to evaluate the performance of the DPP in field conditions and whether any trend was apparent in infection prevalence over the study period. A Bayesian latent class model of diagnostic test evaluation in the absence of a gold standard was applied to the data. Temporal variation in the sensitivity of DPP and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) due to the impact of control measures was investigated using logistic regression and individual variability was assessed. Bayesian latent class analysis estimated DPP with serum to have a sensitivity of 0.58 (95% CrI: 0.40-0.76) and specificity of 0.97 (95% CrI: 0.95-0.98). The DPP with whole blood showed a higher sensitivity (0.69 (95% CrI: 0.48-0.88)) but similar specificity (0.98 (95% Crl: 0.96-0.99)). The change from BCG Danish to BCG Sofia significantly impacted on DPP serum test characteristics. In addition, there was weak evidence of increasing sensitivity of IGRA over time and differences in DPP test sensitivity between adults and cubs. An exponential decline model was an appropriate representation of the infection prevalence over the 5 years, with a starting prevalence of 14% (95% CrI: 0.10-0.20), and an annual reduction of 39.1% (95% CrI: 26.5-50.9). The resulting estimate of infection prevalence in year 5 of the study was 1.9% (95% CrI: 0.8-3.8). These results provide field evidence of a statistically significant reduction in badger TB prevalence supporting a TVR approach to badger intervention. They give confidence in the reliability and reproducibility in the DPP Whole Blood as a real time trap-side diagnostic test for badgers, and describe the effect of vaccination and reduced infection prevalence on test characteristics.

Mycobacterium bovis BCG Danish Strain 1331 isolated from a periarticular lesion in a domestic cat

A 7-year-old male neutered domestic shorthair outdoor cat was referred for chronic left forelimb lameness, which had been treated with intra-articular injections of triamcinolone acetonide. A soft tissue swelling around the elbow joint, extending from the distal humerus to the proximal ulna, was surgically explored and biopsy samples obtained. Mycobacterium bovis was cultured from samples from the soft tissue and bone. The mycobacteria from the media were killed and the DNA extracted and tested on a multiplex real-time PCR for the absence of specific genes and the presence of mycobacterial genus markers. The PCR revealed bacillus Calmette-Guérin Danish Strain 1331; this was also isolated from the prescapular lymph node, muscle and bone, obtained at post mortem examination. Badgers had been vaccinated with the bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine SSI (Statens Serum Institute) in the area where the cat lived, in the spring and autumn of the previous year. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first report of infection with M. bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin Danish Strain 1331 in a domestic cat, potentially associated with annual vaccination of badgers in the proximity of the cat's home.

Implementation of Visual-Only Swine Inspection in the European Union: Challenges, Opportunities, and Lessons Learned

ABSTRACT

Consumption of contaminated meat and poultry products is a major source of foodborne illness in the United States and globally. Meat inspection procedures, established more than 100 years ago to detect prevailing food safety issues of the time and largely harmonized around the world, do not effectively detect modern hazards and may inadvertently increase food safety risks by spreading contamination across carcasses. Visual-only inspection (VOI) is a significantly different, modernized meat inspection system that is data driven and minimizes physical manipulation of the carcass during inspection. It was developed based on scientific evidence and risk assessment and aims to better control current food safety hazards. In 2014, the European Union (EU) became the first supranational government in the world to require VOI for all swine herds slaughtered in member states that met certain epidemiologic and animal rearing conditions. Here, we review the implementation of this new inspection system with the goal of informing similar modernization efforts in other countries and for other commodities beyond pork. This article reports the results of a literature review and interviews conducted with nine experts in 2018 on the implementation of the EU's 2014 VOI regulation. Challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned about the implementation of the regulation are described for audiences interested in adapting inspection procedures to prevent and detect modern food safety hazards. Overall, implementation of VOI varies within and across member states, and among slaughterhouses of different sizes. This variation is due to disease risk patterns, supply chain conditions, and trade barriers. Before transitioning to a similar risk-based meat inspection system, other countries should consider the following: science-based research agendas to identify what food chain information best predicts herd health and foodborne hazards, regulatory system design that accurately reflects local hazards, and development of targeted VOI educational materials.

HIGHLIGHTS

Mycobacterium bovis genomics reveals transmission of infection between cattle and deer in Ireland

Control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, in the Republic of Ireland costs €84 million each year. Badgers are recognized as being a wildlife source for M. bovis infection of cattle. Deer are thought to act as spillover hosts for infection; however, population density is recognized as an important driver in shifting their epidemiological role, and deer populations across the country have been increasing in density and range. County Wicklow represents one specific area in the Republic of Ireland with a high density of deer that has had consistently high bTB prevalence for over a decade, despite control operations in both cattle and badgers. Our research used whole-genome sequencing of M. bovis sourced from infected cattle, deer and badgers in County Wicklow to evaluate whether the epidemiological role of deer could have shifted from spillover host to source. Our analyses reveal that cattle and deer share highly similar M. bovis strains, suggesting that transmission between these species is occurring in the area. In addition, the high level of diversity observed in the sampled deer population suggests deer may be acting as a source of infection for local cattle populations. These findings have important implications for the control and ultimate eradication of bTB in Ireland.

Post-mortem surveillance of bovine tuberculosis in Ireland: herd-level variation in the probability of herds disclosed with lesions at routine slaughter to have skin test reactors at follow-up test

Post-mortem surveillance in Ireland discloses skin-test negative cattle with presumptive evidence of infection of Mycobacterium bovis (lesions at routine slaughter (LRS)), the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). Laboratory confirmation of lesions has impacts on trade restrictions for herds, therefore if laboratory capacity was diminished, how herds are treated would require an informed risk policy. Here we report the proportion of herds with subsequent evidence of within-herd transmission, based on skin-test results. We assess how herd-size, herd-type, and bTB-history affect the probability of additional reactors at follow-up test using univariable and multivariable random-effects models. The study represents a rapid response to developing an evidential base for policy demands during an extraordinary event, the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland. A dataset from 2005 to 2019 of breakdowns were collated. Overall, 20,116 breakdowns were initiated by LRS cases. During the index tests of these breakdowns, 3931 revealed ≥1 skin-test reactor animals (19.54%; ≥1 standard reactors: 3827; 19.02%). Increasing herd-size was associated with reactor disclosure on follow-up. For small herds (<33 animals), 11.74% of follow-up tests disclosed ≥1 reactor; 24.63% of follow-up tests from very large herds (>137) disclosed ≥1 reactors. Beef (13.87%) and “other” (13%) herd production types had lower proportion of index tests with reactors in comparison with dairy (28.27%) or suckler (20.48%) herds. Historic breakdown size during the previous 3-years was associated reactor disclosure risk on follow-up. Our results are useful for rapid tailored policy development aimed at identifying higher risk herds.

Is moving from targeted culling to BCG-vaccination of badgers (Meles meles) associated with an unacceptable increased incidence of cattle herd tuberculosis in the Republic of Ireland? A practical non-inferiority wildlife intervention study in the Republic of Ireland (2011-2017)

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) remains as a costly disease of cattle-herds in the Republic of Ireland (ROI). This persistence is partially attributable to the presence of M. bovis infection in a wildlife reservoir, the European badger (Meles meles). Thus, both area-wide and limited-area targeted-badger-culling have been part of the ROI-BTB control/eradication program to help reduce the future incidence of a cattle-herd BTB breakdown (i.e. a "new herd-level occurrence of BTB"). However, neither badger-culling practice can be sustained as a major component in the ongoing BTB eradication program in the ROI. Vaccination of badgers with Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has been proposed as an alternative to badger culling. Thus, in 2011, a five-year non-inferiority study was implemented in seven counties in the ROI. This study was designed to compare and contrast the cattle-herd-BTB-incidence in areas where intramuscular badger vaccination would be implemented versus the cattle-herd-BTB-incidence in the remaining area of the same county where targeted-badger-culling was maintained as the standard treatment response to probable badger-sourced BTB breakdowns. Our outcome of interest was a new cattle-herd-BTB-episode (breakdown) with a total of >2 standard skin-test (SICTT) reactors detected during the episode. Treatments (badger vaccination or targeted badger culling) were cluster allocated based on where the majority of the herd owner's land was located. To assess the impact of the two treatments, we compared the incidence-risk, of our defined outcome, for cattle herds in the area under vaccination to the outcome incidence-risk for cattle herds in the remainder of the same county after 4 and 5 years of having implemented badger vaccination. A random-effects logit model with adjustment for clustering by treatment, and statistical control of herd-type, herd-size and five-year prior-BTB-episode history was used for our analyses. Although not included in the logistic model, a relative badger density metric based on the annual number of badgers captured-per-sett-night of capturing effort was developed for each treatment area; this metric indicated that relative badger density was approximately 40 % higher in vaccination areas than in the targeted badger-culling areas during our study. Overall, our study results indicated that vaccination was not inferior to targeted badger-culling in four counties and badger vaccination was deemed to produce ambivalent results in one (County Cork North) of the seven study sites in the ROI. A post-study investigation, in County Galway, where vaccination was deemed inferior to target culling, revealed that widespread purchases of cattle from a nearby cattle mart, by herd owners in the vaccination-area, was associated with the increased herd and vaccination-area risk of BTB. No single "biasing hypothesis" was evident for the apparent vaccine inferiority in the second study site (County Monaghan) where vaccination was deemed inferior to targeted culling; hence no further investigations were conducted.

Perspectives From the Science-Policy Interface in Animal Health and Welfare

The aim of this paper is to present scientific perspectives from the science-policy interface in animal health and welfare, with an emphasis on factors critical to scientific effectiveness. While there is broad acceptance of the value of scientific information to inform policy-making, interactions at the science-policy interface are not without difficulties. The literature highlights the need for scientists to build policy relevance to the research focus from the outset, to engage with policy-makers and other stakeholders throughout, to use platforms to facilitate science-policy dialogue, and to disseminate research findings appropriately. In the author's experience, there are a range of factors linked with effectiveness at the science-policy interface in animal health and welfare including a passion for public interest research, scientific independence, a commitment to scientific quality and openness, the opportunities afforded from partnership and collaboration, and an interest in strategic thinking and systems change. In an increasingly complex and rapidly changing world, an objective evidence base for policy decision-making is more important than ever. There is a need for particular attention to the value of collaboration between the natural and social sciences, a recognition among scientists and policy-makers that science is not value-free, the importance of effective communications, and the need to assess and communicate uncertainty. Further, there are particular challenges with science conducted in support of policy development for industry. It is hoped that this paper will stimulate and contribute to discussion and debate, both among scientists and between scientists and policy-makers, to increase scientific effectiveness at the science-policy interface in animal health and welfare.

Assessment of the sensitivity of the bovine tuberculosis eradication program in a high prevalence region of Spain using scenario tree modeling

In spite of the efforts invested to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle, the disease is still present in several developed countries, including Spain. Among the factors related with disease persistence in high prevalence areas, the lack of sensitivity of the screening test for detection of infected herds [single intradermal tuberculin (SIT) test] can play a major role. Here, a scenario tree model mimicking the diagnostic test scheme in place in the region of Castilla y Leon (Spain) was developed to estimate the probability of detecting bTB in an infected-non detected officially tuberculosis free (OTF) herd (herd sensitivity, HSe). In order to do so the probability of detecting at least one positive animal in the SIT test with/without post-mortem (detection of lesions and culture) confirmation in an infected herd was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation through @RISK (Palisade Co, NY, USA). Uncertainty on the accuracy of the diagnostic tests was introduced in the model using distributions based on the literature. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the predicted number of SIT/post-mortem positive animals in infected herds with those observed in newly detected bTB-infected herds in the region in 2011-2015. The estimated HSe of the SIT test was 76.2% (95% probability interval: 19.8-97.6). According to the model, bTB infection would be then confirmed through culture in 65.3% (95% PI: 50.0-82.3) of the herds detected through the SIT test, so that overall the proportion of infected-non detected OTF herds in which the infection could be confirmed after the initial SIT test was 49.6% (95% PI: 9.75-80.3). The predicted HSe of both SIT test and culture was directly correlated with herd size. Results from the model suggest a moderate but highly variable HSe of the current surveillance system in place for bTB detection in OTF herds located in high prevalence areas, that could be maximized by performing multiple tests within a year as indicated in the Spanish eradication program (with a median SIT HSe of 87% when two consecutive tests were considered). In addition, these results highlight the usefulness of performing subsequent SIT tests to rule out infection in SIT-positive herds even when the causative agent cannot be isolated.