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de Boer A, van Beek PE, Andriessen P, Groenendaal F, Hogeveen M, Meijer JS, Obermann-Borst SA, Onland W, Scheepers L(HCJ, Vermeulen MJ, Verweij EJT(J, De Proost L, Geurtzen R. Opportunities and Challenges of Prognostic Models for Extremely Preterm Infants. CHILDREN (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 10:1712. [PMID: 37892375 PMCID: PMC10605480 DOI: 10.3390/children10101712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2023] [Revised: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023]
Abstract
Predicting the short- and long-term outcomes of extremely preterm infants remains a challenge. Multivariable prognostic models might be valuable tools for clinicians, parents, and policymakers for providing accurate outcome estimates. In this perspective, we discuss the opportunities and challenges of using prognostic models in extremely preterm infants at population and individual levels. At a population level, these models could support the development of guidelines for decisions about treatment limits and may support policy processes such as benchmarking and resource allocation. At an individual level, these models may enhance prenatal counselling conversations by considering multiple variables and improving transparency about expected outcomes. Furthermore, they may improve consistency in projections shared with parents. For the development of prognostic models, we discuss important considerations such as predictor and outcome measure selection, clinical impact assessment, and generalizability. Lastly, future recommendations for developing and using prognostic models are suggested. Importantly, the purpose of a prognostic model should be clearly defined, and integrating these models into prenatal counselling requires thoughtful consideration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angret de Boer
- Department of Neonatology, Amalia Children’s Hospital, Radboud University Medical Center, Geert Grooteplein Zuid 32, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands; (P.E.v.B.); (M.H.); (R.G.)
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Leiden University Medical Centre, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands;
| | - Pauline E. van Beek
- Department of Neonatology, Amalia Children’s Hospital, Radboud University Medical Center, Geert Grooteplein Zuid 32, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands; (P.E.v.B.); (M.H.); (R.G.)
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Center, 5504 DB Veldhoven, The Netherlands; (P.A.); (J.S.M.)
| | - Peter Andriessen
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Center, 5504 DB Veldhoven, The Netherlands; (P.A.); (J.S.M.)
| | - Floris Groenendaal
- Department of Neonatology, Wilhelmina Children’s Hospital, University Medical Center Utrecht, 3584 EA Utrecht, The Netherlands;
| | - Marije Hogeveen
- Department of Neonatology, Amalia Children’s Hospital, Radboud University Medical Center, Geert Grooteplein Zuid 32, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands; (P.E.v.B.); (M.H.); (R.G.)
| | - Julia S. Meijer
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Center, 5504 DB Veldhoven, The Netherlands; (P.A.); (J.S.M.)
| | - Sylvia A. Obermann-Borst
- Care4Neo, Dutch Neonatal Patient and Parent Advocacy Organization, 3068 JN Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (S.A.O.-B.); (M.J.V.)
| | - Wes Onland
- Department of Neonatology, Emma Children’s Hospital, Amsterdam University Medical Center, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands;
- Amsterdam Reproduction & Development, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Marijn J. Vermeulen
- Care4Neo, Dutch Neonatal Patient and Parent Advocacy Organization, 3068 JN Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (S.A.O.-B.); (M.J.V.)
- Department of Neonatal and Pediatric Intensive Care, Division of Neonatology, Sophia Children’s Hospital, Erasmus Medical Center, 3015 CN Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - E. J. T. (Joanne) Verweij
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Leiden University Medical Centre, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands;
| | - Lien De Proost
- Department of Ethics and Law, Leiden University Medical Centre, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands;
| | - Rosa Geurtzen
- Department of Neonatology, Amalia Children’s Hospital, Radboud University Medical Center, Geert Grooteplein Zuid 32, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands; (P.E.v.B.); (M.H.); (R.G.)
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Russell NJ, Stöhr W, Plakkal N, Cook A, Berkley JA, Adhisivam B, Agarwal R, Ahmed NU, Balasegaram M, Ballot D, Bekker A, Berezin EN, Bilardi D, Boonkasidecha S, Carvalheiro CG, Chami N, Chaurasia S, Chiurchiu S, Colas VRF, Cousens S, Cressey TR, de Assis ACD, Dien TM, Ding Y, Dung NT, Dong H, Dramowski A, DS M, Dudeja A, Feng J, Glupczynski Y, Goel S, Goossens H, Hao DTH, Khan MI, Huertas TM, Islam MS, Jarovsky D, Khavessian N, Khorana M, Kontou A, Kostyanev T, Laoyookhon P, Lochindarat S, Larsson M, Luca MD, Malhotra-Kumar S, Mondal N, Mundhra N, Musoke P, Mussi-Pinhata MM, Nanavati R, Nakwa F, Nangia S, Nankunda J, Nardone A, Nyaoke B, Obiero CW, Owor M, Ping W, Preedisripipat K, Qazi S, Qi L, Ramdin T, Riddell A, Romani L, Roysuwan P, Saggers R, Roilides E, Saha SK, Sarafidis K, Tusubira V, Thomas R, Velaphi S, Vilken T, Wang X, Wang Y, Yang Y, Zunjie L, Ellis S, Bielicki JA, Walker AS, Heath PT, Sharland M. Patterns of antibiotic use, pathogens, and prediction of mortality in hospitalized neonates and young infants with sepsis: A global neonatal sepsis observational cohort study (NeoOBS). PLoS Med 2023; 20:e1004179. [PMID: 37289666 PMCID: PMC10249878 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is limited data on antibiotic treatment in hospitalized neonates in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to describe patterns of antibiotic use, pathogens, and clinical outcomes, and to develop a severity score predicting mortality in neonatal sepsis to inform future clinical trial design. METHODS AND FINDINGS Hospitalized infants <60 days with clinical sepsis were enrolled during 2018 to 2020 by 19 sites in 11 countries (mainly Asia and Africa). Prospective daily observational data was collected on clinical signs, supportive care, antibiotic treatment, microbiology, and 28-day mortality. Two prediction models were developed for (1) 28-day mortality from baseline variables (baseline NeoSep Severity Score); and (2) daily risk of death on IV antibiotics from daily updated assessments (NeoSep Recovery Score). Multivariable Cox regression models included a randomly selected 85% of infants, with 15% for validation. A total of 3,204 infants were enrolled, with median birth weight of 2,500 g (IQR 1,400 to 3,000) and postnatal age of 5 days (IQR 1 to 15). 206 different empiric antibiotic combinations were started in 3,141 infants, which were structured into 5 groups based on the World Health Organization (WHO) AWaRe classification. Approximately 25.9% (n = 814) of infants started WHO first line regimens (Group 1-Access) and 13.8% (n = 432) started WHO second-line cephalosporins (cefotaxime/ceftriaxone) (Group 2-"Low" Watch). The largest group (34.0%, n = 1,068) started a regimen providing partial extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)/pseudomonal coverage (piperacillin-tazobactam, ceftazidime, or fluoroquinolone-based) (Group 3-"Medium" Watch), 18.0% (n = 566) started a carbapenem (Group 4-"High" Watch), and 1.8% (n = 57) a Reserve antibiotic (Group 5, largely colistin-based), and 728/2,880 (25.3%) of initial regimens in Groups 1 to 4 were escalated, mainly to carbapenems, usually for clinical deterioration (n = 480; 65.9%). A total of 564/3,195 infants (17.7%) were blood culture pathogen positive, of whom 62.9% (n = 355) had a gram-negative organism, predominantly Klebsiella pneumoniae (n = 132) or Acinetobacter spp. (n = 72). Both were commonly resistant to WHO-recommended regimens and to carbapenems in 43 (32.6%) and 50 (71.4%) of cases, respectively. MRSA accounted for 33 (61.1%) of 54 Staphylococcus aureus isolates. Overall, 350/3,204 infants died (11.3%; 95% CI 10.2% to 12.5%), 17.7% if blood cultures were positive for pathogens (95% CI 14.7% to 21.1%, n = 99/564). A baseline NeoSep Severity Score had a C-index of 0.76 (0.69 to 0.82) in the validation sample, with mortality of 1.6% (3/189; 95% CI: 0.5% to 4.6%), 11.0% (27/245; 7.7% to 15.6%), and 27.3% (12/44; 16.3% to 41.8%) in low (score 0 to 4), medium (5 to 8), and high (9 to 16) risk groups, respectively, with similar performance across subgroups. A related NeoSep Recovery Score had an area under the receiver operating curve for predicting death the next day between 0.8 and 0.9 over the first week. There was significant variation in outcomes between sites and external validation would strengthen score applicability. CONCLUSION Antibiotic regimens used in neonatal sepsis commonly diverge from WHO guidelines, and trials of novel empiric regimens are urgently needed in the context of increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The baseline NeoSep Severity Score identifies high mortality risk criteria for trial entry, while the NeoSep Recovery Score can help guide decisions on regimen change. NeoOBS data informed the NeoSep1 antibiotic trial (ISRCTN48721236), which aims to identify novel first- and second-line empiric antibiotic regimens for neonatal sepsis. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov, (NCT03721302).
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal J. Russell
- Center for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection (CNPI), Institute of Infection & Immunity, St George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Wolfgang Stöhr
- Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nishad Plakkal
- Department of Neonatology, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education & Research (JIPMER), Pondicherry, India
| | - Aislinn Cook
- Center for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection (CNPI), Institute of Infection & Immunity, St George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - James A. Berkley
- Clinical Research Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
- Centre for Tropical Medicine & Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- The Childhood Acute Illness & Nutrition (CHAIN) Network, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Bethou Adhisivam
- Department of Neonatology, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education & Research (JIPMER), Pondicherry, India
| | - Ramesh Agarwal
- Newborn Division and WHO-CC, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Nawshad Uddin Ahmed
- Child Health Research Foundation (CHRF), Dhaka Shishu Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Manica Balasegaram
- Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership (GARDP), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Daynia Ballot
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Adrie Bekker
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
| | | | | | | | - Cristina G. Carvalheiro
- Department of Pediatrics, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Neema Chami
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Suman Chaurasia
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Department of Paediatrics, New Delhi, India
| | - Sara Chiurchiu
- Academic Hospital Paediatric Department, Bambino Gesù Children’s Hospital, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Simon Cousens
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Tim R. Cressey
- PHPT/IRD-MIVEGEC, Faculty of Associated Medical Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | | | - Tran Minh Dien
- Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam and Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Yijun Ding
- Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam and Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Nguyen Trong Dung
- Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam and Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Han Dong
- Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Angela Dramowski
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
| | - Madhusudhan DS
- Neonatology Department, Seth GS Medical College and King Edward Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India
| | - Ajay Dudeja
- Department of Neonatology, Lady Hardinge Medical College and Kalawati Saran Children’s Hospital, New Delhi, India
| | - Jinxing Feng
- Department of Neonatology, Shenzhen Children’s Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Youri Glupczynski
- Laboratory of Medical Microbiology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Srishti Goel
- Department of Neonatology, Lady Hardinge Medical College and Kalawati Saran Children’s Hospital, New Delhi, India
| | - Herman Goossens
- Laboratory of Medical Microbiology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Doan Thi Huong Hao
- Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam and Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Vietnam National Children’s Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Mahmudul Islam Khan
- Child Health Research Foundation (CHRF), Dhaka Shishu Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Tatiana Munera Huertas
- Center for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection (CNPI), Institute of Infection & Immunity, St George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Daniel Jarovsky
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Santa Casa de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nathalie Khavessian
- Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership (GARDP), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Meera Khorana
- Neonatal Unit, Department of Pediatrics, Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, College of Medicine, Rangsit University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Angeliki Kontou
- Neonatology Dept, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Aristotle University and Hippokration General Hospital, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Tomislav Kostyanev
- Laboratory of Medical Microbiology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | | | | | - Mattias Larsson
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Maia De Luca
- Academic Hospital Paediatric Department, Bambino Gesù Children’s Hospital, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Nivedita Mondal
- Department of Neonatology, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education & Research (JIPMER), Pondicherry, India
| | - Nitu Mundhra
- Neonatology Department, Seth GS Medical College and King Edward Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India
| | - Philippa Musoke
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, College of Health Sciences, Makerere University and MUJHU Care, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Marisa M. Mussi-Pinhata
- Department of Pediatrics, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Ruchi Nanavati
- Neonatology Department, Seth GS Medical College and King Edward Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India
| | - Firdose Nakwa
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sushma Nangia
- Department of Neonatology, Lady Hardinge Medical College and Kalawati Saran Children’s Hospital, New Delhi, India
| | - Jolly Nankunda
- Makerere University - Johns Hopkins University Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Borna Nyaoke
- Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership (GARDP), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Christina W. Obiero
- Clinical Research Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
- Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Emma Children’s Hospital, Department of Global Health, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Maxensia Owor
- Makerere University - Johns Hopkins University Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Wang Ping
- Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | | | - Shamim Qazi
- World Health Organization, Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health Department, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Lifeng Qi
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shenzhen Children’s Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Tanusha Ramdin
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Amy Riddell
- Center for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection (CNPI), Institute of Infection & Immunity, St George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Lorenza Romani
- Academic Hospital Paediatric Department, Bambino Gesù Children’s Hospital, Rome, Italy
| | - Praewpan Roysuwan
- PHPT/IRD-MIVEGEC, Faculty of Associated Medical Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Robin Saggers
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Emmanuel Roilides
- Infectious Diseases Unit, 3rd Dept Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Aristotle University and Hippokration General Hospital, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Samir K. Saha
- Child Health Research Foundation (CHRF), Dhaka Shishu Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Kosmas Sarafidis
- Neonatology Dept, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Aristotle University and Hippokration General Hospital, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Valerie Tusubira
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, College of Health Sciences, Makerere University and MUJHU Care, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Reenu Thomas
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sithembiso Velaphi
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Tuba Vilken
- Laboratory of Medical Microbiology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Xiaojiao Wang
- Department of Neonatology, Beijing Children’s Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Centre for Children’s Health, Beijing, China
| | - Yajuan Wang
- Department of Neonatology, Children’s Hospital, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Yabao Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
| | - Yonghong Yang
- Department of Neonatology, Shenzhen Children’s Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Liu Zunjie
- Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Sally Ellis
- Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership (GARDP), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Julia A. Bielicki
- Center for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection (CNPI), Institute of Infection & Immunity, St George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - A. Sarah Walker
- Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Paul T. Heath
- Center for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection (CNPI), Institute of Infection & Immunity, St George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Mike Sharland
- Center for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection (CNPI), Institute of Infection & Immunity, St George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom
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