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Hou W, Zhou Y, Luo W, Wang L, Kwan MP, Cook AR. Mapping environmental suitability changes for arbovirus mosquitoes in Southeast Asia: 1960-2020. iScience 2024; 27:110498. [PMID: 39165847 PMCID: PMC11334785 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2023] [Revised: 05/03/2024] [Accepted: 07/10/2024] [Indexed: 08/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Spatial epidemiology recognizes the impact of environmental factors on human infectious diseases through disease vectors. The expansion of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus raises concerns about health risks due to their changing distribution. However, current mosquito mapping methods have low spatial resolution and limited focus on long-term trends and factors. This study develops a high-resolution framework (500 m) to map mosquito distribution in Southeast Asia from 1960 to 2020. It includes a species distribution model, a spatial autocorrelation model, and a geographical detector model. The study produces Southeast Asia's first 500 m resolution map of mosquito suitability, revealing significant increases in mosquito suitability in most cities over the past 60 years. The analysis indicates a shift in high-suitability areas from coastal to inland regions, with nighttime land surface temperature playing a key role. These findings are crucial for regional risk assessments and mitigation strategies related to vector-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weitao Hou
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore
- School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
- School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Discipline of Spatial Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
| | - Yuxuan Zhou
- Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- GeoSpatialX Lab, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Wei Luo
- GeoSpatialX Lab, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lin Wang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Mei-Po Kwan
- Department of Geography and Resource Management and Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Alex R. Cook
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
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2
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Williams PCM, Beardsley J, Isaacs D, Preisz A, Marais BJ. The impact of climate change and biodiversity loss on the health of children: An ethical perspective. Front Public Health 2023; 10:1048317. [PMID: 36743159 PMCID: PMC9895790 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1048317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
The reality of human induced climate change is no longer in doubt, but the concerted global action required to address this existential crisis remains inexcusably inert. Together with climate change, biodiversity collapse is increasingly driving the emergence and spread of infectious diseases, the consequences of which are inequitable globally. Climate change is regressive in its nature, with those least responsible for destroying planetary health at greatest risk of suffering the direct and indirect health consequences. Over half a billion of the world's children live in areas vulnerable to extreme weather events. Without immediate action, the health of today's children and future generations will be compromised. We consider the impact of biodiversity collapse on the spread of infectious diseases and outline a duty of care along a continuum of three dimensions of medical ethics. From a medical perspective, the first dimension requires doctors to serve the best interests of their individual patients. The second dimension considers the public health dimension with a focus on disease control and cost-effectiveness. The neglected third dimension considers our mutual obligation to the future health and wellbeing of children and generations to come. Given the adverse impact of our ecological footprint on current and future human health, we have a collective moral obligation to act.
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Affiliation(s)
- Phoebe C. M. Williams
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute (Sydney ID), The University of Sydney, Darlington, NSW, Australia
- School of Women and Children's Health, The University of NSW School of Women's and Children's Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Justin Beardsley
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute (Sydney ID), The University of Sydney, Darlington, NSW, Australia
| | - David Isaacs
- Clinical Ethics, Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Health Ethics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Anne Preisz
- Clinical Ethics, Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Health Ethics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ben J. Marais
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute (Sydney ID), The University of Sydney, Darlington, NSW, Australia
- Clinical Ethics, Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Health Ethics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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3
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Williams PC, Bartlett AW, Howard-Jones A, McMullan B, Khatami A, Britton PN, Marais BJ. Impact of climate change and biodiversity collapse on the global emergence and spread of infectious diseases. J Paediatr Child Health 2021; 57:1811-1818. [PMID: 34792238 DOI: 10.1111/jpc.15681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
The reality of climate change and biodiversity collapse is irrefutable in the 21st century, with urgent action required not only to conserve threatened species but also to protect human life and wellbeing. This existential threat forces us to recognise that our existence is completely dependent upon well-functioning ecosystems that sustain the diversity of life on our planet, including that required for human health. By synthesising data on the ecology, epidemiology and evolutionary biology of various pathogens, we are gaining a better understanding of factors that underlie disease emergence and spread. However, our knowledge remains rudimentary with limited insight into the complex feedback loops that underlie ecological stability, which are at risk of rapidly unravelling once certain tipping points are breached. In this paper, we consider the impact of climate change and biodiversity collapse on the ever-present risk of infectious disease emergence and spread. We review historical and contemporaneous infectious diseases that have been influenced by human environmental manipulation, including zoonoses and vector- and water-borne diseases, alongside an evaluation of the impact of migration, urbanisation and human density on transmissible diseases. The current lack of urgency in political commitment to address climate change warrants enhanced understanding and action from paediatricians - to ensure that we safeguard the health and wellbeing of children in our care today, as well as those of future generations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Phoebe Cm Williams
- The University of Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, Sydney Children's Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,The School of Women's and Children's Health, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Adam W Bartlett
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, Sydney Children's Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,The School of Women's and Children's Health, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Annaleise Howard-Jones
- The University of Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Brendan McMullan
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, Sydney Children's Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,The School of Women's and Children's Health, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ameneh Khatami
- The University of Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Philip N Britton
- The University of Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ben J Marais
- The University of Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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4
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Pley C, Evans M, Lowe R, Montgomery H, Yacoub S. Digital and technological innovation in vector-borne disease surveillance to predict, detect, and control climate-driven outbreaks. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e739-e745. [PMID: 34627478 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00141-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Revised: 05/11/2021] [Accepted: 05/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to changes in weather and climate. Timely warnings from surveillance systems can help to detect and control outbreaks of infectious disease, facilitate effective management of finite resources, and contribute to knowledge generation, response planning, and resource prioritisation in the long term, which can mitigate future outbreaks. Technological and digital innovations have enabled the incorporation of climatic data into surveillance systems, enhancing their capacity to predict trends in outbreak prevalence and location. Advance notice of the risk of an outbreak empowers decision makers and communities to scale up prevention and preparedness interventions and redirect resources for outbreak responses. In this Viewpoint, we outline important considerations in the advent of new technologies in disease surveillance, including the sustainability of innovation in the long term and the fundamental obligation to ensure that the communities that are affected by the disease are involved in the design of the technology and directly benefit from its application.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caitlin Pley
- School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Megan Evans
- Centre for Environmental Health and Sustainability, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sophie Yacoub
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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5
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Kajero O, Del Rio Vilas V, Wood JLN, Lo Iacono G. New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 374:20180265. [PMID: 31104602 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Public health practitioners require measures to evaluate how vulnerable populations are to diseases, especially for zoonoses (i.e. diseases transmitted from animals to humans) given their pandemic potential. These measures would be valuable to support strategic and operational decision making and allocation of resources. Although vulnerability is well defined for natural hazards, for public health threats the concept remains undetermined. Here, we develop new methodologies to: (i) quantify the impact of zoonotic diseases and the capacity of countries to cope with these diseases, and (ii) combine these two measures (impact and capacity) into one overall vulnerability indicator. The adaptive capacity is calculated from estimations of disease mortality, although the method can be adapted for diseases with no or low mortality but high morbidity. As an example, we focused on the vulnerability of Nigeria and Sierra Leone to Lassa Fever and Ebola. We develop a simple analytical form that can be used to estimate vulnerability scores for different spatial units of interest, e.g. countries or regions. We show how some populations can be highly vulnerable despite low impact threats. We finally outline future research to more comprehensively inform vulnerability with the incorporation of relevant factors depicting local heterogeneities (e.g. bio-physical and socio-economic factors). This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olumayowa Kajero
- 1 School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, University of Surrey , Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL , UK
| | - Victor Del Rio Vilas
- 1 School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, University of Surrey , Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL , UK
| | - James L N Wood
- 2 Department of Veterinary Medicine, Disease Dynamics Unit, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB3 0ES , UK
| | - Giovanni Lo Iacono
- 1 School of Veterinary Medicine, Daphne Jackson Road, University of Surrey , Guildford, Surrey GU2 7AL , UK
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Coates SJ, Enbiale W, Davis MDP, Andersen LK. The effects of climate change on human health in Africa, a dermatologic perspective: a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee. Int J Dermatol 2020; 59:265-278. [PMID: 31970754 DOI: 10.1111/ijd.14759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2019] [Revised: 11/04/2019] [Accepted: 11/25/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Throughout much of the African continent, healthcare systems are already strained in their efforts to meet the needs of a growing population using limited resources. Climate change threatens to undermine many of the public health gains that have been made in this region in the last several decades via multiple mechanisms, including malnutrition secondary to drought-induced food insecurity, mass human displacement from newly uninhabitable areas, exacerbation of environmentally sensitive chronic diseases, and enhanced viability of pathogenic microbes and their vectors. We reviewed the literature describing the various direct and indirect effects of climate change on diseases with cutaneous manifestations in Africa. We included non-communicable diseases such as malignancies (non-melanoma skin cancers), inflammatory dermatoses (i.e. photosensitive dermatoses, atopic dermatitis), and trauma (skin injury), as well as communicable diseases and neglected tropical diseases. Physicians should be aware of the ways in which climate change threatens human health in low- and middle-income countries in general, and particularly in countries throughout Africa, the world's lowest-income and second most populous continent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah J Coates
- Department of Dermatology, The University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Mark D P Davis
- Division of Clinical Dermatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Louise K Andersen
- Department of Dermato-Venereology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
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Levy K, Smith SM, Carlton EJ. Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions. Curr Environ Health Rep 2019; 5:272-282. [PMID: 29721700 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-018-0199-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. RECENT FINDINGS A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen Levy
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA.
| | - Shanon M Smith
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Elizabeth J Carlton
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, 13001 E 17th Place B119, Aurora, CO, 80045, USA
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Wilcox BA, Echaubard P, de Garine-Wichatitsky M, Ramirez B. Vector-borne disease and climate change adaptation in African dryland social-ecological systems. Infect Dis Poverty 2019; 8:36. [PMID: 31130141 PMCID: PMC6535848 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-019-0539-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2018] [Accepted: 04/05/2019] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Drylands, which are among the biosphere's most naturally limiting and environmentally variable ecosystems, constitute three-quarters of the African continent. As a result, environmental sustainability and human development along with vector-borne disease (VBD) control historically have been especially challenging in Africa, particularly in the sub-Saharan and Sahelian drylands. Here, the VBD burden, food insecurity, environmental degradation, and social vulnerability are particularly severe. Changing climate can exacerbate the legion of environmental health threats in Africa, the social dimensions of which are now part of the international development agenda. Accordingly, the need to better understand the dynamics and complex coupling of populations and environments as exemplified by drylands is increasingly recognized as critical to the design of more sustainable interventions. MAIN BODY This scoping review examines the challenge of vector-borne disease control in drylands with a focus on Africa, and the dramatic, ongoing environmental and social changes taking place. Dryland societies persisted and even flourished in the past despite changing climates, extreme and unpredictable weather, and marginal conditions for agriculture. Yet intrusive forces largely out of the control of traditional dryland societies, along with the negative impacts of globalization, have contributed to the erosion of dryland's cultural and natural resources. This has led to the loss of resilience underlying the adaptive capacity formerly widely exhibited among dryland societies. A growing body of evidence from studies of environmental and natural resource management demonstrates how, in light of dryland system's inherent complexity, these factors and top-down interventions can impede sustainable development and vector-borne disease control. Strengthening adaptive capacity through community-based, participatory methods that build on local knowledge and are tailored to local ecological conditions, hold the best promise of reversing current trends. CONCLUSIONS A significant opportunity exists to simultaneously address the increasing threat of vector-borne diseases and climate change through methods aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity. The integrative framework and methods based on social-ecological systems and resilience theory offers a novel set of tools that allow multiple threats and sources of vulnerability to be addressed in combination. Integration of recent advances in vector borne disease ecology and wider deployment of these tools could help reverse the negative social and environmental trends currently seen in African drylands.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruce A. Wilcox
- ASEAN Institute for Health Development, Mahidol University, 999 Salaya Phuttamonthon, Nakon Pathom, 73170 Thailand
| | - Pierre Echaubard
- ASEAN Institute for Health Development, Mahidol University, 999 Salaya Phuttamonthon, Nakon Pathom, 73170 Thailand
| | - Michel de Garine-Wichatitsky
- ASTRE, Université de Montpellier, CIRA, INRA, F-34398 Montpellier, France
- Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Bernadette Ramirez
- Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
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Ceccato P, Ramirez B, Manyangadze T, Gwakisa P, Thomson MC. Data and tools to integrate climate and environmental information into public health. Infect Dis Poverty 2018; 7:126. [PMID: 30541601 PMCID: PMC6292116 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-018-0501-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2018] [Accepted: 11/13/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the last 30 years, the development of geographical information systems and satellites for Earth observation has made important progress in the monitoring of the weather, climate, environmental and anthropogenic factors that influence the reduction or the reemergence of vector-borne diseases. Analyses resulting from the combination of geographical information systems (GIS) and remote sensing have improved knowledge of climatic, environmental, and biodiversity factors influencing vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as malaria, visceral leishmaniasis, dengue, Rift Valley fever, schistosomiasis, Chagas disease and leptospirosis. These knowledge and products developed using remotely sensed data helped and continue to help decision makers to better allocate limited resources in the fight against VBDs. MAIN BODY Because VBDs are linked to climate and environment, we present here our experience during the last four years working with the projects under the, World Health Organization (WHO)/ The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR)-International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Research Initiative on VBDs and Climate Change to integrate climate and environmental information into research and decision-making processes. The following sections present the methodology we have developed, which uses remote sensing to monitor climate variability, environmental conditions, and their impacts on the dynamics of infectious diseases. We then show how remotely sensed data can be accessed and evaluated and how they can be integrated into research and decision-making processes for mapping risks, and creating Early Warning Systems, using two examples from the WHO TDR projects based on schistosomiasis analysis in South Africa and Trypanosomiasis in Tanzania. CONCLUSIONS The tools presented in this article have been successfully used by the projects under the WHO/TDR-IDRC Research Initiative on VBDs and Climate Change. Combined with capacity building, they are an important piece of work which can significantly contribute to the goals of WHO Global Vector Control Response and to the Sustainable Development Goals especially those on health and climate action.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pietro Ceccato
- The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Lamont-Doherty, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
| | - Bernadette Ramirez
- The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Tawanda Manyangadze
- School of Nursing and Public Health, Department of Public Health, College of health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, P. Bag, 1020 Bindura, Zimbabwe
- South Africa and Geography Department, Faculty of Sciences, Bindura University of Science Education, P. Bag, 1020 Bindura, Zimbabwe
| | - Paul Gwakisa
- Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, School of Life Sciences and Bioengineering, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania
- Present address: Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3019, Morogoro, Tanzania
| | - Madeleine C. Thomson
- The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Lamont-Doherty, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
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Thomson MC, Muñoz ÁG, Cousin R, Shumake-Guillemot J. Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes. Infect Dis Poverty 2018; 7:81. [PMID: 30092816 PMCID: PMC6085673 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-018-0460-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2017] [Accepted: 07/11/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Climate-based disease forecasting has been proposed as a potential tool in climate change adaptation for the health sector. Here we explore the relevance of climate data, drivers and predictions for vector-borne disease control efforts in Africa. Methods Using data from a number of sources we explore rainfall and temperature across the African continent, from seasonality to variability at annual, multi-decadal and timescales consistent with climate change. We give particular attention to three regions defined as WHO-TDR study zones in Western, Eastern and Southern Africa. Our analyses include 1) time scale decomposition to establish the relative importance of year-to-year, decadal and long term trends in rainfall and temperature; 2) the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and temperature at the Pan African scale; 3) the impact of ENSO on the climate of Tanzania using high resolution climate products and 4) the potential predictability of the climate in different regions and seasons using Generalized Relative Operating Characteristics. We use these analyses to review the relevance of climate forecasts for applications in vector borne disease control across the continent. Results Timescale decomposition revealed long term warming in all three regions of Africa – at the level of 0.1–0.3 °C per decade. Decadal variations in rainfall were apparent in all regions and particularly pronounced in the Sahel and during the East African long rains (March–May). Year-to-year variability in both rainfall and temperature, in part associated with ENSO, were the dominant signal for climate variations on any timescale. Observed climate data and seasonal climate forecasts were identified as the most relevant sources of climate information for use in early warning systems for vector-borne diseases but the latter varied in skill by region and season. Conclusions Adaptation to the vector-borne disease risks of climate variability and change is a priority for government and civil society in African countries. Understanding rainfall and temperature variations and trends at multiple timescales and their potential predictability is a necessary first step in the incorporation of relevant climate information into vector-borne disease control decision-making. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0460-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Madeleine C Thomson
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, USA. .,Mailman School of Public Health Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, USA. .,IRI-World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre (US 430) on Early Warning Systems for Malaria and other Climate Sensitive Diseases, New York, USA. .,International Research Institute for Climate and Society, LDEO, Palisades, New York, 10964, USA.
| | - Ángel G Muñoz
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, USA.,Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Remi Cousin
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, USA
| | - Joy Shumake-Guillemot
- World Health Organization- World Meteorological Organization Joint Climate and Health Office, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
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