From control to elimination: a spatial-temporal analysis of malaria along the China-Myanmar border

Cooperative Sentinel Surveillance of Malaria in Laiza and Nearby Areas of Myanmar and Importation Threat Monitoring - China, 2019-2023

Introduction

Laiza and nearby areas (LNA) in Myanmar are identified as the primary malaria hotspots in the bordering regions of Yunnan Province, China.

Methods

Six sentinel surveillance sites were established at the China-Myanmar border in LNA to monitor malaria. Data from 2019 was used as a baseline to analyze malaria incidence and trends in LNA and Myanmar, as well as the importation of malaria cases into China from 2019 to 2023.

Results

Plasmodium vivax was the predominant species, representing 99.95% (14,060/14,066) of confirmed malaria cases in LNA. A total of 8,356 malaria cases were identified in 2023, with an annual parasite incidence (API) of 19.78 per 100 person-years. Compared to 2019, the incidence rate ratio was 21.47 (95% confidence interval: 18.84, 24.48), indicating that the API in 2023 was 21.47 times higher than that in 2019. In Yunnan, out of 1,016 reported cases, 545 imported cases (53.64%) originated from LNA and spread to 18 (13.95%) out of 129 counties. Ten provinces in China, including Yunnan, reported imported malaria cases from LNA in Myanmar.

Conclusions

The increase in population, particularly among internally displaced persons, along with inadequate healthcare services, has led to a notable resurgence of malaria in LNA. This resurgence poses a risk to preventing the re-emergence of malaria transmission in China. There is an urgent need for novel collaborative policies, as well as financial and technical assistance, to enhance malaria control efforts in LNA, Myanmar.

Seasonal prediction of the distribution of three major malaria vectors in China: Based on an ecological niche model

Against the backdrop of a global malaria epidemic that remains severe, China has eradicated indigenous malaria but still has to be alert to the risk of external importation. Understanding the distribution of vectors can provide an adequate and reliable basis for the development and implementation of vector control strategies. However, with the decline of malaria prevalence in recent years, the capacity of vector monitoring and identification has been greatly weakened. Here we have used new sampling records, climatic data, and topographic data to establish ecological niche models of the three main malaria vectors in China. The model results accurately identified the current habitat suitability areas for the three species of Anopheles and revealed that in addition to precipitation and temperature as important variables affecting the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, topographic variables also influenced the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes. Anopheles sinensis is the most widespread malaria vector in China, with a wide region from the northeast (Heilongjiang Province) to the southwest (Yunnan Province) suitable for its survival. Suitable habitat areas for Anopheles lesteri are concentrated in the central, eastern, and southern regions of China. The suitable habitat areas of Anopheles minimus are the smallest and are only distributed in the border provinces of southern China. On this basis, we further assessed the seasonal variation in habitat suitability areas for these three major malaria vectors in China. The results of this study provide new and more detailed evidence for vector monitoring. In this new era of imported malaria prevention in China, regular reassessment of the risk of vector transmission is recommended.

Treatment-seeking behaviours of malaria patients versus non-malaria febrile patients along China-Myanmar border

BACKGROUND

Appropriate malaria treatment-seeking behaviour (TSB) is critical for timely detecting malaria, prompt treatment, and prevention of onward transmission of the disease in a community. This study aimed to compare treatment-seeking behaviours between malaria patients and non-malaria febrile patients, and to analyse the factors associated with appropriate TSB along the China-Myanmar border.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out to investigate the appropriate TSB of microscopy-confirmed malaria patients versus non-malaria febrile (NMF) patients. An unconditional logistic regression analysis (LRA) was used to identify factors associated with appropriate TSB.

RESULTS

Among 223 malaria patients and 446 NMF patients, 129 (57.8%) of the malaria patients versus 163 (36.5%) of the NMF patients firstly sought treatment in health facilities without laboratory testing for malaria (P < 0.0001). A total of 85(38.1%) of the malaria patients versus 278 (62.3%) of the NMF patients had appropriate TSB, namely, seeking treatment in health facilities with laboratory testing for malaria within 48 h (P < 0.0001). Multivariate LRA identified that the malaria patients with Chinese nationality had less appropriate TSB compared to those with other nationalities (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.21, 95% confidence interval CI 0.07-0.68, P = 0.0097), and malaria patients residing in urban areas had more appropriate TSB compared to those living in rural areas (AOR: 2.16, 95%CI 1.06-4.39, P = 0.0337).

CONCLUSIONS

TSB was not appropriate in malaria patients. Chinese citizenship and rural residence were two independent factors associated with inappropriate malaria TSB. It is urgently necessary to improve appropriate malaria TSB through effective campaigns of information, education, and communication for malaria control in Myanmar and preventing reestablishment of malaria transmission in Yunnan, China.

Malaria epidemiological characteristics and control in Guangzhou, China, 1950-2022

BACKGROUND

Malaria was once widespread in Guangzhou, China. However, a series of control measures have succeeded in eliminating local malaria infections. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of malaria epidemics in Guangzhou, China, from 1950 to 2022, the changes and effectiveness of malaria control strategies and surveillance management in Guangzhou from 1950 to 2022 are described.

METHODS

Data on malaria prevention and treatment in Guangzhou from 1950 to 2022 were collected, and descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyse the prevalence of malaria, preventive and control measures taken, and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment in different periods. Data on malaria cases were obtained from the Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the China Communicable Disease Reporting System.

RESULTS

The development of the malaria control system in Guangzhou has gone through four periods: 1. High malaria prevalence (1950-1979), 2. Intensive prevention and control stage (1980-2000), 3. Consolidating gains in malaria control (2001-2008), and 4. Preventing reestablishment of transmission (2009-2022). During Period 1, only medical institutions at all levels and the local CDCs, the Guangzhou CDC participated in the malaria prevention and control system, establishing a three-tier health system on malaria prevention and control. During Period 2, other types of organizations, including the agricultural sector, schools and village committees, the construction department and street committee, are involved in the malaria control system. During Period 3, more and more organizations are joining forces to prevent and control malaria. A well-established multisectoral malaria control mechanism and an improved post-elimination surveillance management system are in place. Between 1950 and 2022, a total of 420,670 cases of malaria were reported. During Period 1, there was an epidemic of malaria in the early 1950s, with an annual incidence rate of more than 10,000/100,000, including a high rate of 2887.98/100,000 in 1954. In Period 2 malaria was gradually brought under control, with the average annual malaria incidence rate dropping to 3.14/100,000. During Period 3, the incidence rate was kept below 1/100,000, and by 2009 local malaria infections were eliminated.

CONCLUSION

For decades, Guangzhou has adopted different malaria control strategies and measures at different epidemic stages. Increased collaboration among civil organizations in Guangzhou in malaria control has led to a significant decline in the number of malaria cases and the elimination of indigenous malaria infections by 2009.The experience of Guangzhou can guide the development of malaria control strategies in other cities experiencing similar malaria epidemics.

Imported malaria from land bordering countries in China: A challenge in preventing the reestablishment of malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE

No indigenous malaria cases have been reported since 2017 in China, but a large number of imported cases are still reported every year, including those from the land bordering countries. To characterize their epidemiological profiles will provide evidence for the development of appropriate strategies to effectively address the challenges of border malaria in the post-elimination phase.

METHODS

Individual-level data of imported malaria cases from the land bordering countries were collected from 2017 to 2021 in China via the web-based surveillance systems, and analyzed by SPSS, ArcGIS and WPS software, to explore their epidemiological profiles.

RESULTS

A total of 1170 malaria cases imported into China from six of the fourteen land bordering countries were reported between 2017 and 2021 with a decline trend. Overall, cases were widely distributed in 31-97 counties from 11 to 21 provinces but mainly in Yunnan. Moreover, these imported cases were mainly infected with P. vivax (94.8%), and a total of 68 recurrent cases were reported in 6-14 counties from 4 to 8 provinces. In addition, nearly 57.1% of the total reported cases could seek healthcare within 2 days of getting sick, and 71.3% of the reported cases could be confirmed as malaria on the day they sought medical care.

CONCLUSIONS

China still needs to attach great importance to the risk and challenge of the imported malaria from bordering countries particularly from Myanmar in preventing reestablishment of malaria transmission in the post-elimination phase. It is necessary not only to strengthen collaboration and cooperation with the bordering countries, but also coordinate multiple departments at home to improve malaria surveillance and response system and prevent the reestablishment of malaria transmission in China.

Spatio-temporal trends of malaria incidence from 2011 to 2017 and environmental predictors of malaria transmission in Myanmar

BACKGROUND

Myanmar bears the heaviest malaria burden in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This study assessed the spatio-temporal dynamics and environmental predictors of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in Myanmar.

METHODS

Monthly reports of malaria cases at primary health centers during 2011-2017 were analyzed to describe malaria distribution across Myanmar at the township and state/region levels by spatial autocorrelation (Moran index) and spatio-temporal clustering. Negative binomial generalized additive models identified environmental predictors for falciparum and vivax malaria, respectively.

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2017, there was an apparent reduction in malaria incidence in Myanmar. Malaria incidence peaked in June each year. There were significant spatial autocorrelation and clustering with extreme spatial heterogeneity in malaria cases and test positivity across the nation (P < 0.05). Areas with higher malaria incidence were concentrated along international borders. Primary clusters of P. falciparum persisted in western townships, while clusters of P. vivax shifted geographically over the study period. The primary cluster was detected from January 2011 to December 2013 and covered two states (Sagaing and Kachin). Annual malaria incidence was highest in townships with a mean elevation of 500‒600 m and a high variance in elevation (states with both high and low elevation). There was an apparent linear relationship between the mean normalized difference vegetative index and annual P. falciparum incidence (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The decreasing trends reflect the significant achievement of malaria control efforts in Myanmar. Prioritizing the allocation of resources to high-risk areas identified in this study can achieve effective disease control.

Malaria in Angola: recent progress, challenges and future opportunities using parasite demography studies

Over the past two decades, a considerable expansion of malaria interventions has occurred at the national level in Angola, together with cross-border initiatives and regional efforts in southern Africa. Currently, Angola aims to consolidate malaria control and to accelerate the transition from control to pre-elimination, along with other country members of the Elimination 8 initiative. However, the tremendous heterogeneity in malaria prevalence among Angolan provinces, as well as internal population movements and migration across borders, represent major challenges for the Angolan National Malaria Control Programme. This review aims to contribute to the understanding of factors underlying the complex malaria situation in Angola and to encourage future research studies on transmission dynamics and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum, important areas to complement host epidemiological information and to help reenergize the goal of malaria elimination in the country.

Achievements of the national malaria control and elimination program in the People's Republic of China: the Atlas of Malaria Transmission in China

In 2017, China achieved the target of zero indigenous malaria case for the first time, and has been certified as malaria free by World Health Organization in 2021. To further summarize the historical achievements and technical experiences of the elimination program, a project on the Roadmap Analysis and Verification for Malaria Elimination in China was carried out. Results of the project were compiled and published as the Atlas of Malaria Transmission in China (The Atlas). The Atlas using modern digital information technologies, has been supported by various data from 24 malaria endemic provinces of China since 1950, to assess the changes in malaria epidemic patterns from 1950 to 2019 at national and provincial levels. The Atlas is designed as two volumes, including a total of 1850 thematic maps and more than 130 charts, consisting of introductory maps, thematic maps of malaria epidemic and control at national and provincial levels. It objectively and directly shows the epidemic history, evolution process, and great achievements of the national malaria control and elimination program in China. The Atlas has important reference value for summing up historical experience in the national malaria elimination program of China, and malaria control and elimination in other endemic countries in the world.

Establishing and applying an adaptive strategy and approach to eliminating malaria: practice and lessons learnt from China from 2011 to 2020

ABSTRACTOn 30 June 2021, China was certified malaria-free by the World Health Organization. In this study, the evolution, performance, outcomes, and impact of China's adaptive strategy and approach for malaria elimination from 2011 to 2020 were analysed using 10-year data. The strategy and approach focused on timely detection and rapid responses to individual cases and foci. Indigenous cases declined from 1,308 in 2011 to 36 in 2015, and the last one was reported from Yunnan Province in April 2016, although thousands of imported cases still occur annually. The "1-3-7" approach was implemented successfully between 2013 and 2020, with 100% of cases reported within 24 h, 94.5% of cases investigated within three days of case reporting, and 93.4% of foci responses performed within seven days. Additionally, 81.6% of patients attended the first healthcare visit within 1-3 days of onset and 58.4% were diagnosed as malaria within three days of onset, in 2017-2020. The adaptive strategy and approach, along with their universal implementation, are most critical in malaria elimination. In addition to strengthening surveillance on drug resistance and vectors and border malaria collaboration, a further adapted three-step strategy and the corresponding "3-3-7" model are recommended to address the risks of re-transmission and death by imported cases after elimination. China's successful practice and lessons learnt through long-term efforts provide a reference for countries moving towards elimination.

Assessing Thailand's 1-3-7 surveillance strategy in accelerating malaria elimination

Background

Thailand’s strong malaria elimination programme relies on effective implementation of its 1-3-7 surveillance strategy, which was endorsed and implemented nationwide in 2016. For each confirmed malaria patient, the Ministry of Public Health’s Division of Vector Borne Diseases (DVBD) ensures completion of case notification within 1 day, case investigation within 3 days, and foci investigation within 7 days. To date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of the performance and achievements of the 1-3-7 surveillance strategy although such results could help Thailand’s future malaria elimination strategic planning.

Methods

This study examined adherence to the 1-3-7 protocols, tracked progress against set targets, and examined geographic variations in implementation of the 1-3-7 strategy in the programme’s initial 5 years. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis with seasonal decomposition assessed the plausible implementation effect of the 1-3-7 strategy on malaria incidence in the programme’s initial 5 years. The quantitative analysis included all confirmed malaria cases from public health and non-governmental community facilities from October 2014 to September 2021 (fiscal year [FY] 2015 to FY 2021) (n = 77,405). The spatial analysis included active foci with known geocoordinates that reported more than five cases from FY 2018 to FY 2021.

Results

From FY 2017 to FY 2021, on-time case notification improved from 24.4% to 89.3%, case investigations from 58.0% to 96.5%, and foci investigations from 37.9% to 87.2%. Adherence to timeliness protocols did not show statistically significant variation by area risk classification. However, adherence to 1-3-7 protocols showed a marked spatial heterogeneity among active foci, and the ARIMA model showed a statistically significant acceleration in the reduction of malaria incidence. The 1-3-7 strategy national indicators and targets in Thailand have shown progressive success, and most targets were achieved for FY 2021.

Conclusion

The results of Thailand’s 1-3-7 surveillance strategy are associated with a decreased incidence in the period following the adoption of the strategy although there is notable geographic variation. The DVBD will continue to implement and adapt the 1-3-7 strategy to accelerate progress toward malaria elimination. This assessment may be useful for domestic strategic planning and to other countries considering more intensive case and foci investigation and response strategies.

Genetic polymorphisms in genes associated with drug resistance in Plasmodium vivax parasites from northeastern Myanmar

Background

Anti-malarial drug resistance is still a major threat to malaria elimination in the Great Mekong Sub-region. Plasmodium vivax parasites resistant to anti-malarial drugs are now found in Myanmar. Molecular surveillance on drug resistance genes in P. vivax parasites from northeastern Myanmar was aimed at estimating the underlying drug resistance in this region.

Methods

Blood samples from patients with vivax malaria were collected from Laiza city in northeastern Myanmar in 2020. Drug resistance genes including Pvcrt-o, Pvmdr1, Pvdhfr and Pvdhps were amplified and sequenced. Genetic polymorphisms and haplotypes were analysed to evaluate the prevalence of mutant alleles associated with drug resistance.

Results

A total of 149 blood samples from P. vivax patients were collected. The prevalence of Pvmdr1 mutations at codons 958 and 1076 was 100.0% and 52.0%, respectively, whereas no single nucleotide polymorphism was present at codon 976. The proportions of single and double mutant types were 48.0% and 52.0%, respectively. A K10 “AAG” insertion in the Pvcrt-o gene was not detected. Mutations in Pvdhfr at codons 57, 58, 61, 99 and 117 were detected in 29.9%, 54.3%, 27.6%, 44.9% and 55.1% of the samples, respectively. Wild type was predominant (46.3%), followed by quadruple and double mutant haplotypes. Of three types of tandem repeat variations of Pvdhfr, Type B, with three copies of GGDN repeats, was the most common. Pvdhps mutations were only detected at codons 383 and 553 and the wild type Pvdhps was dominant (78.0%). Eleven haplotypes were identified when combining the mutations of Pvdhfr and Pvdhps, among which the predominant one was the wild type (33.9%), followed by double mutant alleles S58R/S117N /WT (24.6%).

Conclusions

This study demonstrated resistant P. vivax phenotypes exists in northeastern Myanmar. Continued surveillance of drug resistance markers is needed to update treatment guidelines in this region.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04084-y.

Epidemiologic Analysis of Efforts to Achieve and Sustain Malaria Elimination along the China-Myanmar Border

Malaria cases have dramatically declined in China along the Myanmar border, attributed mainly to adoption of the 1-3-7 surveillance and response approach. No indigenous cases have been reported in China since 2017. Counties in the middle and southern part of the border area have a higher risk for malaria importation and reestablishment after elimination.

Temporal Changes in the Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-1 in Myanmar

Despite a significant decline in the incidence of malaria in Myanmar recently, malaria is still an important public health concern in the country. Although Plasmodium falciparum is associated with the highest incidence of malaria in Myanmar, the proportion of P. vivax cases has shown a gradual increase in recent years. The genetic diversity of P. vivax merozoite surface protein-1 block 5-6 (pvmsp-1 ICB 5-6) in the P. vivax population of Myanmar was analyzed to obtain a comprehensive insight into its genetic heterogeneity and evolutionary history. High levels of genetic diversity of pvmsp-1 ICB 5-6 were identified in the P. vivax isolates collected from Myanmar between 2013 and 2015. Thirty-nine distinct haplotypes of pvmsp-1 ICB 5-6 (13 for Sal I type, 20 for recombinant type, and 6 for Belem type) were found at the amino acid level. Comparative analyses of the genetic diversity of pvmsp-1 ICB 5-6 sequences in the recent (2013–2015) and the past (2004) P. vivax populations in Myanmar revealed genetic expansion of the pvmsp-1 ICB 5-6 in recent years, albeit with a declined incidence. The recent increase in the genetic heterogeneity of Myanmar pvmsp-1 ICB 5-6 is attributed to a combination of factors, including accumulated mutations and recombination. These results suggest that the size of the P. vivax population in Myanmar is sufficient to enable the generation and maintenance of genetic diversity, warranting continuous molecular surveillance of genetic variation in Myanmar P. vivax.

A retrospective analysis of malaria epidemiological characteristics in Yingjiang County on the China-Myanmar border

Yingjiang County, which is on the China–Myanmar border, is the main focus for malaria elimination in China. The epidemiological characteristics of malaria in Yingjiang County were analysed in a retrospective analysis. A total of 895 malaria cases were reported in Yingjiang County between 2013 and 2019. The majority of cases occurred in males (70.7%) and individuals aged 19–59 years (77.3%). Plasmodium vivax was the predominant species (96.6%). The number of indigenous cases decreased gradually and since 2017, no indigenous cases have been reported. Malaria cases were mainly distributed in the southern and southwestern areas of the county; 55.6% of the indigenous cases were reported in Nabang Township, which also had the highest risk of imported malaria. The “1–3–7” approach has been implemented effectively, with 100% of cases reported within 24 h, 88.9% cases investigated and confirmed within 3 days and 98.5% of foci responded to within 7 days. Although malaria elimination has been achieved in Yingjiang County, sustaining elimination and preventing the re-establishment of malaria require the continued strengthening of case detection, surveillance and response systems targeting the migrant population in border areas.