Feasibility of controlling hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province, China: a modelling study

Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study

Objective

Brucellosis has a considerable impact on human health and the economy in developing countries. In China, the biggest developing country, brucellosis shifted spread of the epidemic from northern to southern regions. Understanding the transmission characteristic of brucellosis on Hunan province, located in central China, is of great significance for successful control.

Methods

We developed a multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MPMRDM), which is an animal-human-environment coupled model. The model is an extension of the SEIR model, taking into account direct transmission and indirect transmission. We used the model to explore the spread of brucellosis and evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies.

Results

The animal-to-animal transmission rate was the highest at 5.14 × 10-8, while the environment-to-person transmission rate was the lowest at 9.49 × 10-12. The mean R0 was 1.51. The most effective intervention was taking personal protection, followed by shortening the infection period. Shortening the infection period combined with personal protection is the most effective two-combined intervention strategy. After any comprehensive intervention strategy was implemented, TAR dropped by 90% or more.

Conclusion

The results demonstrate that animal transmission route is essential for controlling human brucellosis. Strengthening personal protection, early detection, and early treatment can effectively control the trend of brucellosis. These results can provide an important reference for optimizing brucellosis intervention plans.

Theoretical Epidemiology Needs Urgent Attention in China

The mathematical method to which theoretical epidemiology belongs is one of the three major methodologies in epidemiology. It is of great value in diagnosing infectious disease epidemic trends and evaluating the effectiveness of prevention and control measures. This paper aims to summarize the brief history of the development of theoretical epidemiology, common types of mathematical models, and key steps to develop a mathematical model. It also provides some thoughts and perspectives on the development and application of theoretical epidemiology in China.