1
|
Fu H, Abbas K, Klepac P, van Zandvoort K, Tanvir H, Portnoy A, Jit M. Effect of evidence updates on key determinants of measles vaccination impact: a DynaMICE modelling study in ten high-burden countries. BMC Med 2021; 19:281. [PMID: 34784922 PMCID: PMC8594955 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-02157-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 10/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Model-based estimates of measles burden and the impact of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) are crucial for global health priority setting. Recently, evidence from systematic reviews and database analyses have improved our understanding of key determinants of MCV impact. We explore how representations of these determinants affect model-based estimation of vaccination impact in ten countries with the highest measles burden. METHODS Using Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), we modelled the effect of evidence updates for five determinants of MCV impact: case-fatality risk, contact patterns, age-dependent vaccine efficacy, the delivery of supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) to zero-dose children, and the basic reproduction number. We assessed the incremental vaccination impact of the first (MCV1) and second (MCV2) doses of routine immunisation and SIAs, using metrics of total vaccine-averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 2000-2050. We also conducted a scenario capturing the effect of COVID-19 related disruptions on measles burden and vaccination impact. RESULTS Incorporated with the updated data sources, DynaMICE projected 253 million measles cases, 3.8 million deaths and 233 million DALYs incurred over 2000-2050 in the ten high-burden countries when MCV1, MCV2, and SIA doses were implemented. Compared to no vaccination, MCV1 contributed to 66% reduction in cumulative measles cases, while MCV2 and SIAs reduced this further to 90%. Among the updated determinants, shifting from fixed to linearly-varying vaccine efficacy by age and from static to time-varying case-fatality risks had the biggest effect on MCV impact. While varying the basic reproduction number showed a limited effect, updates on the other four determinants together resulted in an overall reduction of vaccination impact by 0.58%, 26.2%, and 26.7% for cases, deaths, and DALYs averted, respectively. COVID-19 related disruptions to measles vaccination are not likely to change the influence of these determinants on MCV impact, but may lead to a 3% increase in cases over 2000-2050. CONCLUSIONS Incorporating updated evidence particularly on vaccine efficacy and case-fatality risk reduces estimates of vaccination impact moderately, but its overall impact remains considerable. High MCV coverage through both routine immunisation and SIAs remains essential for achieving and maintaining low incidence in high measles burden settings.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Han Fu
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Kaja Abbas
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.,International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Petra Klepac
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Kevin van Zandvoort
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Hira Tanvir
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Allison Portnoy
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, London, UK.,School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Yang M, Cheng XQ, Zhao ZY, Li PH, Rui J, Lin SN, Xu JW, Zhu YZ, Wang Y, Liu XC, Luo L, Deng B, Liu C, Huang JF, Yang TL, Li ZY, Liu WK, Liu WD, Zhao BH, He Y, Yin Q, Mao SY, Su YH, Zhang XF, Chen TM. Feasibility of controlling hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province, China: a modelling study. Infect Dis Poverty 2021; 10:91. [PMID: 34187566 PMCID: PMC8240442 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-021-00873-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2021] [Accepted: 06/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hepatitis E, an acute zoonotic disease caused by the hepatitis E virus (HEV), has a relatively high burden in developing countries. The current research model on hepatitis E mainly uses experimental animal models (such as pigs, chickens, and rabbits) to explain the transmission of HEV. Few studies have developed a multi-host and multi-route transmission dynamic model (MHMRTDM) to explore the transmission feature of HEV. Hence, this study aimed to explore its transmission and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention using the dataset of Jiangsu Province. METHODS We developed a dataset comprising all reported HEV cases in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2018. The MHMRTDM was developed according to the natural history of HEV cases among humans and pigs and the multi-transmission routes such as person-to-person, pig-to-person, and environment-to-person. We estimated the key parameter of the transmission using the principle of least root mean square to fit the curve of the MHMRTDM to the reported data. We developed models with single or combined countermeasures to assess the effectiveness of interventions, which include vaccination, shortening the infectious period, and cutting transmission routes. The indicator, total attack rate (TAR), was adopted to assess the effectiveness. RESULTS From 2005 to 2018, 44 923 hepatitis E cases were reported in Jiangsu Province. The model fits the data well (R2 = 0.655, P < 0.001). The incidence of the disease in Jiangsu Province and its cities peaks are around March; however, transmissibility of the disease peaks in December and January. The model showed that the most effective intervention was interrupting the pig-to-person route during the incidence trough of September, thereby reducing the TAR by 98.11%, followed by vaccination (reducing the TAR by 76.25% when the vaccination coefficient is 100%) and shortening the infectious period (reducing the TAR by 50.05% when the infectious period is shortened to 15 days). CONCLUSIONS HEV could be controlled by interrupting the pig-to-person route, shortening the infectious period, and vaccination. Among these interventions, the most effective was interrupting the pig-to-person route.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Meng Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiao-Qing Cheng
- Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Ze-Yu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
- Cirad, UMR 17, Intertryp, Université de Montpellier, 34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Pei-Hua Li
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Jia Rui
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Sheng-Nan Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Jing-Wen Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Yuan-Zhao Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Xing-Chun Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Li Luo
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Bin Deng
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Chan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Jie-Feng Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Tian-Long Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhuo-Yang Li
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Wei-Kang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Wen-Dong Liu
- Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Ben-Hua Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Yue He
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Qi Yin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Si-Ying Mao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan-Hua Su
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Xue-Feng Zhang
- Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province People’s Republic of China
| | - Tian-Mu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, 361102 Fujian Province People’s Republic of China
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Phua LC, Choi HCW, Wu J, Jit M, Low J, Ng K, Pearce F, Hall C, Abdul Aziz MI. Cost-effectiveness analysis of the nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer in Singapore. Vaccine 2021; 39:2255-2263. [PMID: 33744050 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2020] [Revised: 03/05/2021] [Accepted: 03/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been shown to extend protection against oncogenic HPV types 31/33/45/52/58 (HPV-OV) not covered by the bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines. Besides its clinical benefit, evidence on the economic value of the nonavalent vaccine is required to inform local vaccination strategies and funding decisions. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of replacing the bivalent vaccine with the nonavalent vaccine in the national school-based HPV vaccination programme in Singapore. METHODS An existing age-structured dynamic transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations was adapted to project the health and economic impact of vaccinating 13-year-old girls with two doses of the nonavalent or bivalent HPV vaccines in Singapore. Direct costs (in Singapore dollars, S$) were obtained from public healthcare institutions in Singapore, while health state utilities were sourced from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon, from a healthcare system perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to obtain the ICERs and corresponding variations across variable uncertainty. Particularly, this study tested the scenarios of lifelong and 20-year vaccine-induced protection, assumed 96.0% and 22.3% cross-protection against HPV-OV by nonavalent and bivalent vaccines respectively, and fixed vaccine prices per dose at S$188 for nonavalent and S$61.50 for bivalent vaccines. RESULTS Compared with the bivalent vaccine, the use of the nonavalent vaccine was associated with an ICER of S$61,629 per quality-adjusted life year gained in the base case. The result was robust across a range of plausible input values, and to assumptions regarding the duration of vaccine protection. CONCLUSION Given the high ICER, the nonavalent vaccine is unlikely to represent a cost-effective option compared with the bivalent vaccine for school-based HPV vaccination of 13-year old female students in Singapore. Substantial price reductions would be required to justify its inclusion in the school-based programme in the future.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lee Cheng Phua
- Agency for Care Effectiveness, Ministry of Health, Singapore
| | - Horace C W Choi
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Joseph Wu
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health (D24H), Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
| | - Mark Jit
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Jeffrey Low
- Gynaecologic Oncology, National University Cancer Institute, National University Hospital, Singapore
| | - Kwong Ng
- Agency for Care Effectiveness, Ministry of Health, Singapore
| | - Fiona Pearce
- Agency for Care Effectiveness, Ministry of Health, Singapore
| | - Cameron Hall
- Agency for Care Effectiveness, Ministry of Health, Singapore
| | | |
Collapse
|
5
|
Breton MC, Huang L, Snedecor SJ, Cornelio N, Fanton-Aita F. Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for vaccination of adolescents against serogroup B IMD with the MenB-FHbp vaccine in Canada. Can J Public Health 2020; 111:182-192. [PMID: 31907760 PMCID: PMC7109210 DOI: 10.17269/s41997-019-00275-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2019] [Accepted: 11/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Serogroup B meningococci (MnB) are now the largest cause of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Canada. We assessed the clinical and economic impact of 3 adolescent MenB-FHbp immunization strategies. METHODS A population-based dynamic transmission model was developed to simulate the transmission of MnB among the entire Canadian population over a 30-year time horizon. Age group-based IMD incidence, bacterial carriage and transmission, disease outcomes, costs, and impact on quality of life were obtained from Canadian surveillance data and published literature. The vaccine was assumed to provide 85% protection against IMD and 26.6% against carriage acquisition. The model estimated the impact of routine vaccination with MenB-FHbp in 3 strategies: (1) age 14, along with existing school-based programs, with 75% uptake; (2) age 17 with 75% uptake, assuming school vaccination; and (3) age 17 with 30% uptake, assuming vaccination outside of school. Costs were calculated from the Canadian societal perspective. RESULTS With no vaccination, an estimated 3974 MnB cases would be expected over 30 years. Vaccination with strategies 1-3 were estimated to avert 688, 1033, and 575 cases, respectively. These outcomes were associated with incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year of $976,000, $685,000, and $490,000. CONCLUSIONS Our model indicated that if the vaccine reduces risk of carriage acquisition, vaccination of older adolescents, even at lower uptake, could have a significant public health impact. Due to low disease incidence, MnB vaccination is unlikely to meet widely accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds, but evaluations of new programs should consider the overall benefits of the vaccination.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Marie-Claude Breton
- Pfizer Canada ULC, 17300 Trans-Canada Highway, Kirkland, Montréal, QC, H9J 2M5, Canada.
| | | | | | | | - Fiorella Fanton-Aita
- Pfizer Canada ULC, 17300 Trans-Canada Highway, Kirkland, Montréal, QC, H9J 2M5, Canada
| |
Collapse
|