Reaching the malaria elimination goal in Brazil: a spatial analysis and time-series study

Application of a targeted amplicon sequencing panel to screen for insecticide resistance mutations in Anopheles darlingi populations from Brazil

Large-scale surveillance and informed vector control approaches are urgently needed to ensure that national malaria programs remain effective in reducing transmission and, ultimately, achieving malaria elimination targets. In South America, Anopheles darlingi is the primary malaria vector and is responsible for the majority of Plasmodium species transmission. However, little is known about the molecular markers associated with insecticide resistance in this species. In this study, we developed a low-cost, high throughput amplicon sequencing ("amp-seq") panel, consisting of 11 amplicons targeting genes linked to mosquito species identification (cox-1 and its2) and insecticide resistance (ace-1, GSTe2, vgsc and rdl). When used in tandem with dual-index barcoding of amplicons, this approach permits high numbers of loci and samples to be sequenced in single runs, thereby decreasing costs and increasing efficiency. By screening 200 An. darlingi mosquitoes collected in Brazil, our amp-seq approach identified 10 point mutations leading to amino acid changes in ace-1 (V243I, N294H, S673N, S674N/T) and GSTe2 genes (I114V, D128E, T166I, T179I, and T205A). Overall, our work has demonstrated the utility of amp-seq to provide insights into the genetic diversity of An. darlingi mosquitoes. The amp-seq approach can be applied as a wide-scale insecticide-resistance surveillance technique to better inform vector-control methods.

Sociodemographic aspects, time series and high-risk clusters of malaria in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: a 22-year study

BACKGROUND

Malaria is an acute febrile parasitic disease that significantly impacts global public health. In Brazil, the most studied endemic area for the disease is the Amazon region. This study aims to analyze temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal patterns of malaria in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil over a 22-year period.

METHODS

We conducted a time-series study from 2001 to 2022, encompassing both autochthonous and imported cases. Time trend analysis was employed to assess fluctuations in incidence rates over the years. Spatial clusters of infection risk were identified using the Local Moran Index and Kulldorff's scan.

RESULTS

A total of 18,633 malaria cases were identified in the extra-Amazon region, including 1,980 autochthonous, 13,836 imported, and 2,817 of unknown origin. During the first period (2001-2011), 1,348 autochthonous and 9,124 imported cases were reported. In the second period (2012-2022), there were 632 autochthonous and 4,712 imported cases. The state of Espírito Santo exhibited a decreasing trend but maintained the highest incidence rates throughout the study. The number of municipalities at high risk for autochthonous cases declined, with Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, and Piauí having the most municipalities with high rates. For imported cases, the federative units with the highest numbers in both periods were Ceará, Distrito Federal, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Piauí, and Paraná.

CONCLUSIONS

The data reveal the areas most affected by malaria and thus of highest priority for implementing control strategies.

Ecological change increases malaria risk in the Brazilian Amazon

Ecological change in the Brazilian Amazon is closely linked to human mobility and health. Mining, agriculture, logging, and other activities alter highly diverse ecological and demographic contexts and subsequent exposure to diseases such as malaria. Studies that have attempted to quantify the impact of deforestation on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon have produced conflicting results. However, they varied in methodology and data sources. Most importantly, all studies used annual data, neglecting the subannual seasonal dynamics of malaria. Here, we fill the knowledge gap on the subannual relationship between ecological change in the Brazilian Amazon and malaria transmission. Using the highest spatiotemporal resolution available, we estimated the effect of deforestation on malaria cases between 2003 and 2022 using a stratified Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson model fitted with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model was also stratified by state. We found that a 1% increase in 1-mo lagged deforestation increased malaria cases in a given month and municipality by 6.3% [95% credible interval (Crl): 6.2, 6.5%]. Based on an interaction term included in the model, the effect of deforestation on malaria was even larger in areas with higher forest cover. We found that the coefficients for deforestation and mobility were highly variable when stratified by state. Our results provide detailed evidence that, on average, deforestation increases malaria transmission, but that the relationship is not spatiotemporally uniform. These results have implications for stratifying malaria control interventions based on ecological dynamics to help Brazil achieve its goal of malaria elimination by 2035.

Brazil towards malaria elimination: A time-series analysis of imported cases from 2007 to 2022

Malaria is a global health challenge, and international efforts are underway to alleviate its impact by 2035. Within the 249 million global cases, 0.6 million occur in the Americas, mainly in Venezuela, Brazil, and Colombia. Considering Brazil's geographical proximity to malaria-endemic countries in South America, this study objective is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and time trends of imported malaria cases in Brazil from 2007 to 2022, discussing their influence on the elimination process. This is an ecological time-series study that analyses malaria imported cases (infected in other countries) notified in Brazil, from 2007 to 2022. Brazil's Ministry of Health data were used. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyze sociodemographic and spatial patterns, while the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on imported malaria trends was assessed using Prais-Winsten regression methods. In the study period there was a total of 109,914 imported cases (2.6% of Brazil's total malaria burden). There was an annual reduction of 515.3 cases (p = 0.001) prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. During the pandemics there was an overall reduction of -3,301.8 cases (p = 0.001). In the Amazon region P. vivax imported infections predominated, whereas in the extra-Amazon region P. falciparum imported infections were more prevalent. Most imported cases were males (67.8%), of Black ethnicity (47.5%), with incomplete primary education (45.1%), aged 20-39 (61.1%), and primarily gold miners (54.0%). Most cases are from French Guiana (31.7%), Venezuela (30.0%), and Guyana (17.9%). African nations, notably Angola and Nigeria, were primary sources of imported cases to the extra-Amazon region. The imported cases flux, predominantly from Latin America, threatens Brazil's elimination goals by potentially reintroducing the disease into previously cleared areas and sustaining the transmission in endemic areas. Strengthening epidemiological surveillance at the borders and fostering international cooperation are imperative steps in addressing this challenge.

A snapshot of a representative Brazilian state of illegal mining in indigenous areas during the era of malaria elimination

Malaria is a public health problem and the cases diagnosed in the capital of Roraima, Brazil, show potential to characterize the burden of the disease in the state. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory aspects of malaria cases diagnosed in Boa Vista. For this purpose, a descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted in two health units in the city, with individuals diagnosed and who agreed to respond the questionnaire. Of the total of 206 participants, characterized as men, mixed-race, and young, 96% (198) reported participating in illegal mining activity. Among the group of miners, 66% (131) came from other states of Brazil or other countries. The mines were mainly located in the Yanomami territory in Roraima. Plasmodium vivax infection occurred in 74% (153) of participants. In the miner's group, hospitalizations for severe malaria, previous malaria attacks, and delays in treatment after the onset of symptoms were reported. Although 73% (145) of miners reported knowing how malaria was transmitted, only 54% (107) used mosquito nets or repellents. The use of Artecom and chloroquine by miners is not for the complete treatment but only to relieve symptoms for returning to gold mines, highlighting the importance of molecular surveillance to antimalarial resistance. Indigenous peoples are considered vulnerable to malaria and miners promotes the increase of malaria in Roraima Indigenous Lands. Therefore, access to diagnosis and treatment in Indigenous areas invaded by miners is imperative to confront this disease that ravages Indigenous communities and threatens public health on a large scale to achieve the goal of eliminating malaria in the state.

Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004-2022

Human mobility has challenged malaria elimination efforts and remains difficult to routinely track. In Brazil, administrative records from the Ministry of Health allow monitoring of mobility locally and internationally. Although most imported malaria cases are between municipalities in Brazil, detailed knowledge of patterns of mobility is limited. Here, we address this gap by quantifying and describing patterns of malaria-infected individuals across the Amazon. We used network analysis, spatial clustering, and linear models to quantify and characterize the movement of malaria cases in Brazil between 2004 and 2022. We identified sources and sinks of malaria within and between states. We found that between-state movement of cases has become proportionally more important than within-state, that source clusters persisted longer than sink clusters, that movement of cases into sinks was seasonal while movement out of sources was not, and that importation is an impediment for subnational elimination in many municipalities. We elucidate the vast travel networks of malaria infected individuals that characterize the Amazon region. Uncovering patterns of malaria case mobility is vital for effective microstratification within Brazil. Our results have implications for intervention stratification across Brazil in line with the country's goal of malaria elimination by 2035.

Malaria in areas under mining activity in the Amazon: A review

Deforestation and high human mobility due to mining activities have been key to the increase in malaria cases in the Americas. Here, we review the epidemiological and control aspects of malaria in the Amazon mining areas. Epidemiological evidence shows: 1) a positive correlation between illegal mining activity and malaria incidence, mostly in the Amazon region; 2) most Brazilian miners are males aged 15-29 years who move between states and even countries; 3) miners do not fear the disease and rely on medical care, diagnosis, and medication when they become ill; 4) illegal mining has emerged as the most reported anthropogenic activity within indigenous lands and is identified as a major cause of malaria outbreaks among indigenous people in the Amazon; and 5) because mining is largely illegal, most areas are not covered by any healthcare facilities or activities, leading to little assistance in the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. Our review identified five strategies for reducing the malaria incidence in areas with mining activities: 1) reviewing legislation to control deforestation and mining expansion, particularly in indigenous lands; 2) strengthening malaria surveillance by expanding the network of community health agents to support rapid diagnosis and treatment; 3) reinforcing vector control strategies, such as the use of insecticide-treated nets; 4) integrating deforestation alerts into the national malaria control program; and 5) implementing multi-sectoral activities and providing prompt assistance to indigenous populations. With this roadmap, we can expect a decrease in malaria incidence in the Amazonian mining areas in the future.

Field comparison of broad-spectrum white LED-baited traps with narrow-spectrum green LED-baited traps in the capture of Anopheles mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae)

Light-Emitting Diodes (LEDs) have been effective light sources in attracting Anopheles mosquitoes, but the broad-spectrum white light, even with a wide-ranging application in lighting, have not been evaluated yet. In this study, the white light was field evaluated against the green one in the light trapping of anopheline mosquitoes by using two non-suction Silva traps and two CDC-type suction light traps. Anopheline mosquitoes were captured for two 21-night periods of collecting (2022 and 2023). In the first period, two LEDs were used per Silva trap, but three were used in the second one to increase the luminance/illuminance at traps. A CDC-type suction light trap equipped with an incandescent lamp was used in 2022 and a CDC-type suction light trap equipped with a 6 V-white light (higher luminance/illuminance) in 2023. A total of eight species and 3,289 specimens were captured in both periods. The most frequent species were Anopheles triannulatus s.l., An. goeldii, An. evansae and An. argyritarsis. In 2022, white LEDs were less attractive to anopheline mosquitoes than the other light sources, but without statistical difference among treatments (F = 2.703; P = 0.0752; df = 2). In 2023, even with an increased luminance/illuminance at traps, no statistical difference was found between the two LED-baited Silva traps (F = 6.690; P = 0.0024; df = 2), but rather between the 6 V-white-baited CDC-type suction light trap and green-baited Silva traps. Due to some drawbacks and the lower abundance of individuals caught by using white LEDs, the narrow-banded green LEDs is preferable to white ones for attracting anophelines.

Malaria in a vulnerable population living in quilombo remnant communities in the Brazilian Amazon: a cross-sectional study from 2005-2020

Quilombo remnant communities are areas officially recognized by the Brazilian government as historical communities founded by formerly enslaved individuals. These communities are mostly located in the endemic areas of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. We retrospectively described the prevalence of malaria among individuals living in 32 recognized quilombo remnant communities in the Baiao and Oriximina municipalities located in the Para State. The number of malaria cases and the Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) recorded by the Brazilian malaria surveillance system (SIVEP-Malaria) from January 2005 to December 2020 were analyzed. We found that all communities registered at least one case over the 16-year period, the most frequent parasitic species being Plasmodium vivax (76.1%). During this period, 0.44% (4,470/1,008,714) of the malaria cases registered in Para State were reported in these quilombo remnant communities, with frequencies of 10.9% (856/7,859) in Baiao municipality and 39.1% (3,614/9,238) in Oriximina municipality, showing that individuals living in these rural communities are exposed to malaria. These data indicate that effective surveillance requires improved measures to identify malaria transmission among vulnerable populations living in quilombo remnant communities in the Brazilian Amazon.

Is Brazil reaching malaria elimination? A time series analysis of malaria cases from 2011 to 2023

In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases occur in the Amazon region, mainly caused by Plasmodium vivax (~83%) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) species. Aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, Brazil aims to eliminate autochthonous malaria by 2035. This study aims to analyse epidemiological patterns of malaria in Brazil to discuss if Brazil is on track to meet malaria control targets. A time-series study was conducted analysing autochthonous malaria new infections notifications in the Brazilian Amazon region from 2011 until June 2023. Descriptive analyses were conducted, along with joinpoint regression and forecast models to verify trend and future behaviour. A total of 2,067,030 malaria cases were reported in the period. Trend analysis indicated a decreasing trend in all malaria infections since late 2017 (monthly reduction = 0.81%, p-value <0.05), while Pf infections have increased progressively since 2015 (monthly increase = 0.46%, p-value <0.05). Forecast models predict over 124,000 malaria cases in 2023 and over 96,000 cases in 2024. Predictions for Pf infections are around 23,900 cases in 2023 and 22,300 in 2024. Cases in indigenous population villages are predicted to reach 48,000 cases in 2023 and over 51,000 in 2024. In gold mining areas it is expected over 21,000 cases in 2023 and over 20.000 in 2024. Malaria elimination in Brazil has advanced over the last decade, but its speed has slowed. The country exhibits noteworthy advancements in the reduction of overall malaria cases. It is imperative, however, to proactively target specific issues such as the incidence raise among indigenous populations and in gold mining areas. Pf infections remain a persistent challenge to control in the country and may require novel measures for containment. Current government supporting actions towards combating illegal goldmining activities and protecting indigenous populations may help malaria control indicators for the following years.

Relationship between the colours of the rivers in the Amazon and the incidence of malaria

BACKGROUND

Malaria is transmitted by different Anopheles species. In Brazil, the disease is concentrated in the Amazon region. Rivers play an important role in the life cycle of malaria since the vector reproduces in aquatic environments. The waters of the rivers in the Amazon have distinct chemical characteristics, which affect the colour of the water and therefore, the study analysed whether the colour of the waters of the rivers have an on influence the distribution of malaria. The goal of the study was to correlate the different colourations of the water (black, white and mixed water) and the malaria incidence in 50 municipalities of the Amazonas state, Brazil, and then test hypotheses about the characteristics of the colour of the rivers and disease incidence.

METHODS

This study was conducted for a period of seventeen years (2003-2019) in 50 municipalities in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. A conditionally Gaussian dynamic linear model was developed to analyse the association of malaria incidence and three types of river colour: white, black and mixed.

RESULTS

The analyses indicate that the distribution of malaria is related to the colouration of the rivers. The results showed that places located near black-water rivers have a higher malaria incidence when compared to places on the banks of white-water rivers.

CONCLUSIONS

Historically, the hydrological regime has played an important role in the dynamics of malaria in the Amazon, but little is known about the relationship between river colours and the incidence of the disease. This research was carried out in a region with hydrographic characteristics that were heterogeneous enough to allow an analysis that contrasted different colours of the rivers and covered almost the whole of the state of Amazonas. The results help to identify the places with the highest risk of malaria transmission and it is believed that they will be able to contribute to more precise planning of actions aimed at controlling the disease in the region.

Assessing the impact of the "malaria supporters project" intervention to malaria control in the Brazilian Amazon: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2021, Brazil was responsible for more than 25% of malaria cases in the Americas. Although the country has shown a reduction of cases in the last decades, in 2021 it reported over 139,000 malaria cases. One major malaria control strategy implemented in Brazil is the "Malaria Supporters Project", which has been active since 2012 and is directed to municipalities responsible for most Brazil's cases. The objective of this study is to analyse the intervention effect on the selected municipalities.

METHODS

An ecological time-series analysis was conducted to assess the "Malaria Supporters Project" effect. The study used data on Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) spanning the period from 2003 to 2020 across 48 intervention municipalities and 88 control municipalities. To evaluate the intervention effect a Prais-Winsten segmented regression model was fitted to the difference in malaria Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) between control and intervention areas.

RESULTS

The intervention group registered 1,104,430 cases between 2012 and 2020, a 50.6% reduction compared to total cases between 2003 and 2011. In 2020 there were 95,621 cases, 50.4% fewer than in 2011. The number of high-risk municipalities (API > 50 cases/1000) reduced from 31 to 2011 to 17 in 2020. The segmented regression showed a significant 42.0 cases/1000 residents annual decrease in API compared to control group.

CONCLUSIONS

The intervention is not a silver bullet to control malaria, but it has reduced API in locations with high malaria endemicity. Furthermore, the model has the potential to be replicated in other countries with similar epidemiological scenarios.

Accelerating towards P. vivax elimination with a novel serological test-and-treat strategy: a modelling case study in Brazil

Background

Plasmodium vivax malaria is challenging to control and eliminate. Treatment with radical cure drugs fails to target the hidden asymptomatic and hypnozoite reservoirs in populations. PvSeroTAT, a novel serological test-and-treat intervention using a serological diagnostic to screen hypnozoite carriers for radical cure eligibility and treatment, could accelerate P. vivax elimination.

Methods

Using a previously developed mathematical model of P. vivax transmission adapted to the Brazilian context as a case study for implementation, we evaluate the public health impact of various deployment strategies of PvSeroTAT as a mass campaign. We compare relative reductions in prevalence, cases averted, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) tests, and treatment doses of PvSeroTAT campaigns to strengthened case management alone or mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns across different settings.

Findings

Deploying a single round of PvSeroTAT with 80% coverage to treat cases with a high efficacy radical cure regimen with primaquine is predicted to reduce point population prevalence by 22.5% [95% UI: 20.2%-24.8%] in a peri-urban setting with high transmission and by 25.2% [95% UI: 9.6%-42.2%] in an occupational setting with moderate transmission. In the latter example, while a single PvSeroTAT achieves 9.2% less impact on prevalence and averts 300 less cases per 100,000 than a single MDA (25.2% [95% UI: 9.6%-42.2%] point prevalence reduction versus 34.4% [95% UI: 24.9%-44%]), PvSeroTAT requires 4.6 times less radical cure treatments and G6PD tests. Layering strengthened case management and deploying four rounds of PvSeroTAT six months apart is predicted to reduce point prevalence by a mean of 74.1% [95% UI: 61.3%-86.3%] or more in low transmission settings with less than 10 cases per 1000 population.

Interpretation

Modelling predicts that mass campaigns with PvSeroTAT are predicted to reduce P. vivax parasite prevalence across a range of transmission settings and require fewer resources than MDA. In combination with strengthened case management, mass campaigns of serological test-and-treat interventions can accelerate towards P. vivax elimination.

Funding

This project was funded in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Health and Medical Research Council.