Atmospheric pressure predicts probability of departure for migratory songbirds

Non-breeding conditions induce carry-over effects on survival of migratory birds

Identifying the processes that limit populations is a foundational objective of ecology and an urgent need for conservation. For migratory animals, researchers must study individuals throughout their annual cycles to determine how environmental conditions limit demographic rates within each period of the annual cycle and also between periods through carry-over effects and seasonal interactions.1,2,3,4,5,6 Our poor understanding of the rates and causes of avian migration mortality7 hinders the identification of limiting factors and the reversal of widespread avian population declines.8,9 Here, we implement new methods to estimate apparent survival (hereafter survival) during migration directly from automated telemetry data10 in Kirtland's Warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii) and indirectly from mark-recapture data in Black-throated Blue Warblers (S. caerulescens). Previous experimental and observational studies of our focal species and other migratory songbirds have shown strong effects of Caribbean precipitation and habitat quality on food availability,11,12,13,14 body condition,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19 migration timing,11,12,15,16,20,21,22,23 natal dispersal,24,25 range dynamics,26 reproductive success,20,22,27 and annual survival.18,19,20,23,28,29,30,31 Building on this research, we test the hypotheses that environmental conditions during the non-breeding period affect subsequent survival during spring migration and breeding. We found that reduced precipitation and environmental productivity in the non-breeding period strongly influenced survival in both species, primarily by reducing survival during spring migration. Our results indicate that climate-driven environmental conditions can carry over to affect survival in subsequent periods and thus likely play an important role in year-round population dynamics. These lethal carry-over effects may be widespread and are likely magnified by intensifying climate change.

Evolution of leapfrog migration: A test of competition-based hypotheses

Leapfrog migration is a common migration pattern in birds where the breeding and wintering latitudes between populations are in reversed latitudinal sequence. Competition for wintering and breeding sites has been suggested to be an ultimate factor, and several competitor-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain this pattern. If wintering sites close to the breeding sites are favored, competitive exclusion could force subdominant individuals to winter further away. Competitive exclusion could be mediated either through body size or by prior occupancy. The alternative "spring predictability" hypothesis assumes competition for sufficiently close wintering areas, allowing the birds to use autocorrelated weather cues to optimally time spring migration departure. To test predictions and assumptions of these hypotheses, we combined morphometrics, migration, and weather data from four populations of common ringed plover breeding along a latitudinal (56-68° N) and climatic gradient (temperate to Arctic). Critical for our evaluation was that two populations were breeding on the same latitude in subarctic Sweden with the same distance to the closest potential wintering site, but differed in breeding phenology, and wintered in West Africa and Europe, respectively. Thus, while breeding on the same latitude, their winter distribution overlapped with that of an Arctic and temperate population. Body size was largest within the temperate population, but there was no size difference between the two subarctic populations. Populations wintering in Europe arrived there before populations wintering in Africa. The largest variation in the arrival of meteorological spring occurred at the temperate breeding site, while there was almost no difference among the other sites. In general, temperatures at the northernmost wintering area correlated well with each breeding site prior to breeding site-specific spring arrival. Based on these observations, we conclude that competitive exclusion through body-size-related dominance cannot explain leapfrog migration. Furthermore, the assumptions on which the "spring predictability" hypothesis is based did not match the observed wintering ranges either. However, we could not reject the hypothesis that competitive exclusion mediated by prior occupancy in the wintering area could lead to leapfrog migration, and therefore, this hypothesis should be retained as working hypothesis for further work.

Estimating migration timing and abundance in partial migratory systems by integrating continuous antenna detections with physical captures

Many populations migrate between two different habitats (e.g. wintering/foraging to breeding area, mainstem-tributary, river-lake, river-ocean, river-side channel) as part of their life history. Detection technologies, such as passive integrated transponder (PIT) antennas or sonic receivers, can be placed at boundaries between habitats (e.g. near the confluence of rivers) to detect migratory movements of marked animals. Often, these detection systems have high detection probabilities and detect many individuals but are limited in their ability to make inferences about abundance because only marked individuals can be detected. Here, we introduce a mark-recapture modelling approach that uses detections from a double-array PIT antenna system to imply movement directionality from arrays and estimate migration timing. Additionally, when combined with physical captures, the model can be used to estimate abundances for both migratory and non-migratory groups and help quantify partial migration. We first test our approach using simulation, and results indicate our approach displayed negligible bias for total abundance (less than ±1%) and slight biases for state-specific abundance estimates (±1%-6%). We fit our model to array detections and physical captures of three native fishes (humpback chub [Gila cypha], flannelmouth sucker [Catostomus latipinnis] and bluehead sucker [Catostomus discobolus]) in the Little Colorado River (LCR) in Grand Canyon, AZ, a system that exhibits partial migration (i.e. includes residents and migrants). Abundance estimates from our model confirm that, for all three species, migratory individuals are much more numerous than residents. There was little difference in movement timing between 2021 (a year without preceding winter/spring floods) and 2022 (a year with a small flood occurring in early April). In both years, flannelmouth sucker arrived in mid-March whereas humpback chub and bluehead sucker arrivals occurred early- to mid-April. With humpback chub and flannelmouth sucker, movement timing was influenced by body size so that large individuals were more likely to arrive early compared to smaller individuals. With more years of data, this model framework could be used to evaluate ecological questions pertaining to flow cues and movement timing or intensity, relative trends in migrants versus residents and ecological drivers of skipped spawning.

Environmental factors influencing red knot (Calidris canutus islandica) departure times of relocation flights within the non-breeding period

Deciding when to depart on long-distance, sometimes global, movements can be especially important for flying species. Adverse weather conditions can affect energetic flight costs and navigational ability. While departure timings and conditions have been well-studied for migratory flights to and from the breeding range, few studies have focussed on flights within the non-breeding season. Yet in some cases, overwintering ranges can be large enough that ecological barriers, and a lack of resting sites en route, may resist movement, especially in unfavorable environmental conditions. Understanding the conditions that will enable or prohibit flights within an overwintering range is particularly relevant in light of climate change, whereby increases in extreme weather events may reduce the connectivity of sites. We tracked 495 (n = 251 in 2019; n = 244 in 2020) overwintering red knots (Calidris canutus islandica) in the Dutch Wadden Sea and investigated how many departed towards the UK (on westward relocation flights), which requires flying over the North Sea. For those that departed, we used a resource selection model to determine the effect of environmental conditions on the timing of relocation flights. Specifically, we investigated the effects of wind, rain, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover, and migratory timing relative to sunset and tidal cycle, which have all been shown to be crucial to migratory departure conditions. Approximately 37% (2019) and 36% (2020) of tagged red knots departed on westward relocation flights, indicating differences between individuals' space use within the overwintering range. Red knots selected for departures between 1 and 2.5 h after sunset, approximately 4 h before high tide, with tailwinds and little cloud cover. However, rainfall and changes in atmospheric pressure appear unimportant. Our study reveals environmental conditions that are important for relocation flights across an ecological barrier, indicating potential consequences of climate change on connectivity.

Songbirds initiate migratory flights synchronously relative to civil dusk

BACKGROUND

Each spring and fall billions of songbirds depart on nocturnal migrations across the globe. Theory suggests that songbirds should depart on migration shortly after sunset to maximize their potential for nightly flight duration or to time departure with the emergence of celestial cues needed for orientation and navigation. Although captive studies have found that songbirds depart during a narrow window of time after sunset, observational studies have found that wild birds depart later and more asynchronously relative to sunset than predicted.

METHODS

We used coded radio tags and automated radio-telemetry to estimate the time that nearly 400 individuals from nine songbird species departed their breeding or wintering grounds across North America. We also assessed whether each species was most likely beginning long-distance migratory flights at departure or instead first making non-migratory regional flights. We then explored variation in nocturnal departure time by post-departure movement type, species, age, sex, and season.

RESULTS

We found that 90% of individuals from species that were likely initiating long-distance migratory flights departed within 69 min of civil dusk, regardless of species, season, age, or sex. By contrast, species that likely first made non-migratory regional movements away from the migratory destination departed later and more asynchronously throughout the night. Regardless of post-departure movement type, 98% of individuals departed after civil dusk but otherwise showed no preference in relation to twilight phase.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the presence of celestial orientation cues at civil dusk may set a starting point for departure each night, the fact that species likely beginning long-distance migration departed earlier and more synchronously relative to civil dusk than those first making non-migratory regional movements is consistent with the hypothesis that departing promptly after civil dusk functions to maximize the potential for nightly flight duration and distance. By studying the onset of migration, our study provides baseline information about departure decisions that may enhance our understanding of departure timing throughout migration.