Estimating migration timing and abundance in partial migratory systems by integrating continuous antenna detections with physical captures

Many populations migrate between two different habitats (e.g. wintering/foraging to breeding area, mainstem-tributary, river-lake, river-ocean, river-side channel) as part of their life history. Detection technologies, such as passive integrated transponder (PIT) antennas or sonic receivers, can be placed at boundaries between habitats (e.g. near the confluence of rivers) to detect migratory movements of marked animals. Often, these detection systems have high detection probabilities and detect many individuals but are limited in their ability to make inferences about abundance because only marked individuals can be detected. Here, we introduce a mark-recapture modelling approach that uses detections from a double-array PIT antenna system to imply movement directionality from arrays and estimate migration timing. Additionally, when combined with physical captures, the model can be used to estimate abundances for both migratory and non-migratory groups and help quantify partial migration. We first test our approach using simulation, and results indicate our approach displayed negligible bias for total abundance (less than ±1%) and slight biases for state-specific abundance estimates (±1%-6%). We fit our model to array detections and physical captures of three native fishes (humpback chub [Gila cypha], flannelmouth sucker [Catostomus latipinnis] and bluehead sucker [Catostomus discobolus]) in the Little Colorado River (LCR) in Grand Canyon, AZ, a system that exhibits partial migration (i.e. includes residents and migrants). Abundance estimates from our model confirm that, for all three species, migratory individuals are much more numerous than residents. There was little difference in movement timing between 2021 (a year without preceding winter/spring floods) and 2022 (a year with a small flood occurring in early April). In both years, flannelmouth sucker arrived in mid-March whereas humpback chub and bluehead sucker arrivals occurred early- to mid-April. With humpback chub and flannelmouth sucker, movement timing was influenced by body size so that large individuals were more likely to arrive early compared to smaller individuals. With more years of data, this model framework could be used to evaluate ecological questions pertaining to flow cues and movement timing or intensity, relative trends in migrants versus residents and ecological drivers of skipped spawning.

Don't mind if I do: Arctic humpback whales respond to winter foraging opportunities before migration

Migration patterns are fundamentally linked to the spatio-temporal distributions of prey. How migrating animals can respond to changes in their prey's distribution and abundance remains largely unclear. During the last decade, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) used specific winter foraging sites in fjords of northern Norway, outside of their main summer foraging season, to feed on herring that started overwintering in the area. We used photographic matching to show that whales sighted during summer in the Barents Sea foraged in northern Norway from late October to February, staying up to three months and showing high inter-annual return rates (up to 82%). The number of identified whales in northern Norway totalled 866 individuals by 2019. Genetic sexing and hormone profiling in both areas demonstrate a female bias in northern Norway and suggest higher proportions of pregnancy in northern Norway. This may indicate that the fjord-based winter feeding is important for pregnant females before migration. Our results suggest that humpback whales can respond to foraging opportunities along their migration pathways, in some cases by continuing their feeding season well into winter. This provides an important reminder to implement dynamic ecosystem management that can account for changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of migrating marine mammals.

Spring arrival of the common cuckoo at breeding grounds is strongly determined by environmental conditions in tropical Africa

Failure to adapt migration timing to changes in environmental conditions along migration routes and at breeding locations can result in mismatches across trophic levels, as occurs between the brood parasitic common cuckoo Cuculus canorus and its hosts. Using satellite tracking data from 87 male cuckoos across 11 years, we evaluate why the cuckoo has not advanced its arrival to the UK. Across years, breeding ground arrival was primarily determined by timing of departure from stopover in West Africa before northward crossing of the Sahara. Together with high population synchrony and low apparent endogenous control of this event, this suggests that a seasonal ecological constraint operating here limits overall variation in breeding grounds arrival, although this event was itself influenced by carry-over from timing of arrival into tropical Africa. Between-year variation within individuals was, in contrast, mostly determined by northward migration through Europe, probably due to weather conditions. We find evidence of increased mortality risk for (a) early birds following migration periods positively impacting breeding grounds arrival, and (b) late birds, possibly suffering energy limitation, after departure from the breeding grounds. These results help identify areas where demands of responding to global change can potentially be alleviated by improving stopover quality.

Effects of climate on fall migration phenology of monarch butterflies departing the northeastern breeding grounds in Canada

Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) undergo an iconic multi-generational migration, traveling thousands of kilometers from the summer breeding grounds in southern Canada to overwintering sites in central Mexico. This migration phenomena can be affected by climate change, which may have important implications on fitness and ultimately populations status. We investigated the long-term trends in fall migration phenology of monarchs using a 25-year dataset collected along the coast of Lake Erie in Ontario, Canada. We also investigated local long-term trends in weather covariates that have the potential to influence migration phenology at this site. Patterns in standardized daily counts of monarchs were compared with local weather covariates using two methods (i.e., monthly averages and moving windows) to assess difference in outputs between analytical approaches. Our results suggest that monarch migration timing (migration midpoint, average peak, first peak, and late passage) and weather covariates have been consistent over time, in direct contrast to a similar study in Cape May, New Jersey, which showed a significant increase in both fall temperature and a 16- to 19-day shift in monarch migration timing. Furthermore, our results differed between analytical approaches. With respect to annual variability in air temperature, our monthly average analysis suggested that for each degree increase in September air temperature, late season passage would advance 4.71 days (±1.59 SE, p = .01). However, the moving window analysis suggested that this result is likely spurious and found no significant correlations between migration timing and any weather covariates. Importantly, our results caution against extrapolating the effects of climate change on the migration phenology of the monarch across study regions and the need for more long-term monitoring efforts to better understand regional drivers of variability in migration timing.

Genomic variation across Chinook salmon populations reveals effects of a duplication on migration alleles and supports fine scale structure

The distribution of ecotypic variation in natural populations is influenced by neutral and adaptive evolutionary forces that are challenging to disentangle. This study provides a high-resolution portrait of genomic variation in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with emphasis on a region of major effect for ecotypic variation in migration timing. With a filtered data set of ~13 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from low-coverage whole genome resequencing of 53 populations (3566 barcoded individuals), we contrasted patterns of genomic structure within and among major lineages and examined the extent of a selective sweep at a major effect region underlying migration timing (GREB1L/ROCK1). Neutral variation provided support for fine-scale structure of populations, while allele frequency variation in GREB1L/ROCK1 was highly correlated with mean return timing for early and late migrating populations within each of the lineages (r²  = .58-.95; p < .001). However, the extent of selection within the genomic region controlling migration timing was much narrower in one lineage (interior stream-type) compared to the other two major lineages, which corresponded to the breadth of phenotypic variation in migration timing observed among lineages. Evidence of a duplicated block within GREB1L/ROCK1 may be responsible for reduced recombination in this portion of the genome and contributes to phenotypic variation within and across lineages. Lastly, SNP positions across GREB1L/ROCK1 were assessed for their utility in discriminating migration timing among lineages, and we recommend multiple markers nearest the duplication to provide highest accuracy in conservation applications such as those that aim to protect early migrating Chinook salmon. These results highlight the need to investigate variation throughout the genome and the effects of structural variants on ecologically relevant phenotypic variation in natural species.

Surfing the tide: Homeward migration of sea trout (Salmo trutta) in a Patagonian river

This study evaluates the influence of marine and freshwater conditions on the timing of river entry and upstream migration of sea trout (Salmo trutta) in the Grande River of Tierra del Fuego, Patagonia. We analysed the in-river catch-and-release records from a group of fishing lodges that dominate the Grande River fishery during January-April 2008 (n = 5029 fish) as a function of environmental variables: tidal amplitude, stage in the lunar cycle, river discharge, and river water temperature along the homeward migration season. We discuss the value of the daily catch rate as an abundance index in the Grande river, then analyse the temporal structure of the tidal cycle in the Grande River estuary, a macro-tidal environment with a mean tidal amplitude of 5.7 m, and analyse the fit of a generalized additive model to trout catches on a daily basis in four sections along the river to identify the environmental variables that may affect trout abundance throughout the homeward migration. Fish catches in each section of the river were differentially affected by specific environmental variables: tidal amplitude had a positive and significant effect on catches in the lower river sections, whereas water temperature and river discharge significantly affected catches in upper sections (positive effect of temperature; negative effect of discharge). Catches in the lower section clearly reflect the river entry stage of the homeward migration, with a bi-modal shape significantly correlated with the tidal cycle. The first peak was composed mainly of larger multi-sea-winter trout that move upstream, whereas the second one had a wider range of fish lengths, including a large proportion of small and maybe nonreproductive trout that overwinter in the lower river. Based on our results, we conclude that the large tides in the Grande River estuary strongly affect the river entry timing of sea trout. The underlying mechanisms of this effect may be a combination of increased olfactory recognition and increased tidal transport modulated by the seasonal tidal cycle, which operates on trout during coastal migration to produce the pulses observed in the Grande River sea trout run. In the middle and upper sections of the river, where the tidal effect at river entry was dissipated as upstream migration progressed, trout catches increased with water temperature and decreased with river discharge, which may operate through their influence on in-river migration rate and abundance, but also through changes in catchability.

Timing of spring departure of long distance migrants correlates with previous year's conditions at their breeding site

Precise timing of migration is crucial for animals targeting seasonal resources at locations encountered across their annual cycle. Upon departure, long-distance migrants need to anticipate unknown environmental conditions at their arrival site, and they do so with their internal annual clock. Here, we tested the hypothesis that long-distance migrants synchronize their circannual clock according to the phenology of their environment during the breeding season and therefore adjust their spring departure date according to the conditions encountered at their breeding site the year before. To this end, we used tracking data of Eurasian curlews from different locations and combined movement data with satellite-extracted green-up dates at their breeding site. The spring departure date was better explained by green-up date of the previous year, while arrival date at the breeding site was better explained by latitude and longitude of the breeding site, suggesting that other factors impacted migration timing en route. On a broader temporal scale, our results suggest that long-distance migrants may be able to adjust their migration timing to advancing spring dates in the context of climate change.

Effects of blood parasite infections on spatiotemporal migration patterns and activity budgets in a long-distance migratory passerine

How blood parasite infections influence the migration of hosts remains a lively debated issue as past studies found negative, positive, or no response to infections. This particularly applies to small birds, for which monitoring of detailed migration behavior over a whole annual cycle has been technically unachievable so far. Here, we investigate how bird migration is influenced by parasite infections. To this end, we tracked great reed warblers (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) with multisensor loggers, characterized general migration patterns as well as detailed flight bout durations, resting times and flight heights, and related these to the genus and intensity of their avian haemosporidian infections. We found migration distances to be shorter and the onset of autumn migration to be delayed with increasing intensity of blood parasite infection, in particular for birds with Plasmodium and mixed-genus infections. Additionally, the durations of migratory flight bout were prolonged for infected compared to uninfected birds. But since severely infected birds and particularly birds with mixed-genus infections had shorter resting times, initial delays seemed to be compensated for and the timing in other periods of the annual cycle was not compromised by infection. Overall, our multisensor logger approach revealed that avian blood parasites have mostly subtle effects on migratory performance and that effects can occur in specific periods of the year only.

Earlier and slower or later and faster: Spring migration pace linked to departure time in a Neotropical migrant songbird

Migratory birds travel vast distances and the timing of migratory flights can affect survival and the ability to reproduce. For Neotropical migrant songbirds, early spring departure from wintering sites, early arrival to the breeding grounds and higher reproductive success have been related to the use of suitable habitats and environmental conditions during the non-breeding season. However, how migratory strategies are shaped by winter habitat choice is largely unknown due to the general inability to track birds from specific wintering habitats to stopovers or breeding destinations. We assessed how winter habitat (native forest vs. shade-grown coffee plantations) relates to spring departure date and migration pace in Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus. We also determined the effect of departure date and total migration duration on the arrival date of birds detected near or within their breeding range. We used a novel application of Motus radiotelemetry arrays to track individuals from their wintering grounds in the Andes of South America along their migratory journey to North America. We found variation in migratory strategies between habitats, with birds wintering in native forest departing later than birds in coffee. We present isotopic evidence for native forest being of higher quality than shade-coffee for Swainson's Thrush and hypothesize that moister conditions in forest, as shown by stable isotope (δ¹³ C) analysis of thrush whole blood, provides favourable pre-migratory conditions allowing birds to delay departure from wintering grounds. Habitat, between-site and -year variation in departure date, suggests that birds made facultative adjustments to winter habitat quality and environmental conditions. Independent of habitat, birds that departed later migrated faster and this pattern was maintained along the migration route (n = 44). Migrating earlier and slower or later and faster was unlikely to result in significant differences in arrival time to breeding destinations. Our findings reveal underappreciated complexity in migratory decisions by long-distance migrants that contrast with the current paradigm of earlier departures and arrival from optimal habitats. The next step is to understand the relative fitness benefits of early versus late schedules or whether each strategy is an equally good response to experienced conditions.

Validation and association of candidate markers for adult migration timing and fitness in Chinook Salmon

Recent studies have begun to elucidate the genetic basis for phenotypic traits in salmonid species, but many questions remain before these candidate genes can be directly incorporated into conservation management. In Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a region of major effect for migration timing has been discovered that harbors two adjacent candidate genes (greb1L, rock1), but there has been limited work to examine the association between these genes and migratory phenotypes at the individual, compared to the population, level. To provide a more thorough test of individual phenotypic association within lineages of Chinook Salmon, 33 candidate markers were developed across a 220 Kb region on chromosome 28 previously associated with migration timing. Candidate and neutral markers were genotyped in individuals from representative collections that exhibit phenotypic variation in timing of arrival to spawning grounds from each of three lineages of Chinook Salmon. Association tests confirmed the majority of markers on chromosome 28 were significantly associated with arrival timing and the strongest association was consistently observed for markers within the rock1 gene and the intergenic region between greb1L and rock1. Candidate markers alone explained a wide range of phenotypic variation for Lower Columbia and Interior ocean-type lineages (29% and 78%, respectively), but less for the Interior stream-type lineage (5%). Individuals that were heterozygous at markers within or upstream of rock1 had phenotypes that suggested a pattern of dominant inheritance for early arrival across populations. Finally, previously published fitness estimates from the Interior stream-type lineage enabled tests of association with arrival timing and two candidate markers, which revealed that fish with homozygous mature genotypes had slightly higher fitness than fish with premature genotypes, while heterozygous fish were intermediate. Overall, these results provide additional information for individual-level genetic variation associated with arrival timing that may assist with conservation management of this species.

Independent lineages in a common environment: the roles of determinism and contingency in shaping the migration timing of even- versus odd-year pink salmon over broad spatial and temporal scales

Studies of parallel evolution are seldom able to disentangle the influence of cryptic environmental variation from that of evolutionary history; whereas the unique life history of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) presents an opportunity to do so. All pink salmon mature at age two and die after breeding. Hence, pink salmon bred in even years are completely reproductively isolated from those bred in odd years, even if the two lineages bred in same location. We used time series (mean = 7 years, maximum = 74 years) of paired even- and odd-year populations from 36 rivers spanning over 2000 km to explore parallelism in migration timing, a trait with a strong genetic basis. Migration timing was highly parallel, being determined almost entirely by local environmental differences among rivers. Interestingly, interannual changes in migration timing different somewhat between lineages. Overall, our findings indicate very strong determinism, with only a minor contribution of contingency.

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region-wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large- (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate- (sea surface temperature), and local-scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long-term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long-term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon migration timing. Although salmon phenological diversity will complicate future predictions of migration timing, this variation likely acts as a major contributor to population and ecosystem resiliency in southeast Alaska.

Migration timing and its determinants for nocturnal migratory birds during autumn migration

1. Migration is a common strategy used by birds that breed in seasonal environments, and multiple environmental and biological factors determine the timing of migration. How these factors operate in combination during autumn migration, which is considered to be under weaker time constraints relative to spring migration, is not clear. 2. Here, we examine the patterns and determinants of migration timing for nocturnal migrants during autumn migration in the north-eastern USA using nocturnal reflectivity data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations and modelled diurnal probability of occurrence for 142 species of nocturnal migrants. We first model the capacity of seasonal atmospheric conditions (wind and precipitation) and ecological productivity (vegetation greenness) to predict autumn migration intensity. We then test predictions, formulated under optimal migration theory, on how migration timing should be related to assemblage-level estimates of body size and total migration distance within the context of dietary guild (insectivore and omnivore) and level of dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 3. Our results indicate seasonal declines in ecological productivity delineate the beginning and end of peak migration, whose intensity is best predicted by the velocity of winds at migration altitudes. Insectivorous migrants departed earlier in the season and, consistent with our predictions, large-bodied and long-distance insectivorous migrants departed the earliest. Contrary to our predictions, large-bodied and some long-distance omnivorous migrants departed later in the season, patterns that were replicated in part by insectivorous migrants that displayed dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 4. Our findings indicate migration timing in the region is dictated by optimality strategies, modified based on the breadth and flexibility of migrant's foraging diets, with declining ecological productivity defining possible resource thresholds during which migration occurs when winds at migration altitudes are mild. These observations provide the basis to assess how avian migration strategies may be affected by adjustments in seasonal patterns of atmospheric circulation and ecological productivity that may occur under global climate change.