Describing the Flexibility of the Generalized Gamma and Related Distributions

Development of an adaptive clinical web-based prediction tool for kidney replacement therapy in children with chronic kidney disease

Clinicians need improved prediction models to estimate time to kidney replacement therapy (KRT) for children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Here, we aimed to develop and validate a prediction tool based on common clinical variables for time to KRT in children using statistical learning methods and design a corresponding online calculator for clinical use. Among 890 children with CKD in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) study, 172 variables related to sociodemographics, kidney/cardiovascular health, and therapy use, including longitudinal changes over one year were evaluated as candidate predictors in a random survival forest for time to KRT. An elementary model was specified with diagnosis, estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria as predictors and then random survival forest identified nine additional candidate predictors for further evaluation. Best subset selection using these nine additional candidate predictors yielded an enriched model additionally based on blood pressure, change in estimated glomerular filtration rate over one year, anemia, albumin, chloride and bicarbonate. Four additional partially enriched models were constructed for clinical situations with incomplete data. Models performed well in cross-validation, and the elementary model was then externally validated using data from a European pediatric CKD cohort. A corresponding user-friendly online tool was developed for clinicians. Thus, our clinical prediction tool for time to KRT in children was developed in a large, representative pediatric CKD cohort with an exhaustive evaluation of potential predictors and supervised statistical learning methods. While our models performed well internally and externally, further external validation of enriched models is needed.

Kidney Disease Progression in Children and Young Adults With Pediatric CKD: Epidemiologic Perspectives and Clinical Applications

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression is typically characterized as either time to a clinically meaningful event (such as dialysis or transplant), or longitudinal changes in kidney function. This review describes pediatric kidney disease progression using these two distinct frameworks by reviewing and discussing data from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study. We first describe new equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for patients younger than age 25 years, and how the average of serum creatinine-based and cystatin C-based GFR equations yield valid estimates than either alone. Next, we present a life course description of CKD onset to kidney replacement therapy, prediction models based on clinical measurements, and show the importance of diagnosis (broadly classified as nonglomerular and glomerular in origin), GFR level, and proteinuria on progression. Literature on longitudinal GFR in children and young adults are reviewed and new data are presented to characterize nonlinear changes in estimated GFR in patients younger than age 25 years. These models showed accelerated progression associated with glomerular diagnosis, lower GFR level, and higher proteinuria, which was congruent with time-to-event analyses. Descriptions of online tools for GFR estimation and risk stratification for clinical applications are presented and we offer key epidemiologic considerations for the analysis of longitudinal pediatric CKD studies.

Incidence of Initial Renal Replacement Therapy Over the Course of Kidney Disease in Children

The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Study, a prospective cohort study with data collected from 2003 to 2018, provided the first opportunity to characterize the incidence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation over the life course of pediatric kidney diseases. In the current analysis, parametric generalized gamma models were fitted and extrapolated for RRT overall and by specific treatment modality (dialysis or preemptive kidney transplant). Children were stratified by type of diagnosis: nonglomerular (mostly congenital; n = 650), glomerular–hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS; n = 49), or glomerular–non-HUS (heterogeneous childhood onset; n = 216). Estimated durations of time to RRT after disease onset for 99% of the nonglomerular and glomerular–non-HUS groups were 42.5 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 31.0, 54.1) and 25.4 years (95% CI: 14.9, 36.0), respectively. Since onset for the great majority of children in the nonglomerular group was congenital, disease duration equated with age. A simulation-based estimate of age at RRT for 99% of the glomerular population was 37.9 years (95% CI: 33.6, 63.2). These models performed well in cross-validation. Children with glomerular disease received dialysis earlier and were less likely to have a preemptive kidney transplant, while the timing and proportions of dialysis and transplantation were similar for the nonglomerular group. These diagnosis-specific estimates provide insight into patient-centered prognostic information and can assist in RRT planning efforts for children with moderate-to-severe kidney disease who are receiving regular specialty care.