Feasibility of titrating PEEP to minimum elastance for mechanically ventilated patients

Pulmonary function testing dataset of pressure and flow, dynamic circumference, heart rate, and aeration monitoring

Respiratory data was collected from 20 subjects, with an even sex distribution, in the low-risk clinical unit at the University of Canterbury. Ethical consent for this trial was granted by the University of Canterbury Human Research Ethics Committee (Ref: HREC 2023/30/LR-PS). Respiratory data were collected, for each subject, over three tests consisting of: 1) increasing set PEEP from a starting point of ZEEP using a CPAP machine; 2) test 1 repeated with two simulated apnoea's (breath holds) at each set PEEP; and 3) three forced expiratory manoeuvres at ZEEP. Data were collected using a custom pressure and flow sensor device, ECG, PPG, Garmin HRM Dual heartrate belt, and a Dräeger PulmoVista 500 Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) machine. Subject demographic data was also collected prior to the trial, in a questionnaire, with measurement equipment available. These data aim to inform the development of pulmonary mechanics models and titration algorithms.

Automated evaluation of typical patient-ventilator asynchronies based on lung hysteretic responses

BACKGROUND

Patient-ventilator asynchrony is common during mechanical ventilation (MV) in intensive care unit (ICU), leading to worse MV care outcome. Identification of asynchrony is critical for optimizing MV settings to reduce or eliminate asynchrony, whilst current clinical visual inspection of all typical types of asynchronous breaths is difficult and inefficient. Patient asynchronies create a unique pattern of distortions in hysteresis respiratory behaviours presented in pressure-volume (PV) loop.

METHODS

Identification method based on hysteretic lung mechanics and hysteresis loop analysis is proposed to delineate the resulted changes of lung mechanics in PV loop during asynchronous breathing, offering detection of both its incidence and 7 major types. Performance is tested against clinical patient data with comparison to visual inspection conducted by clinical doctors.

RESULTS

The identification sensitivity and specificity of 11 patients with 500 breaths for each patient are above 89.5% and 96.8% for all 7 types, respectively. The average sensitivity and specificity across all cases are 94.6% and 99.3%, indicating a very good accuracy. The comparison of statistical analysis between identification and human inspection yields the essential same clinical judgement on patient asynchrony status for each patient, potentially leading to the same clinical decision for setting adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall results validate the accuracy and robustness of the identification method for a bedside monitoring, as well as its ability to provide a quantified metric for clinical decision of ventilator setting. Hence, the method shows its potential to assist a more consistent and objective assessment of asynchrony without undermining the efficacy of the current clinical practice.

Predicting mechanically ventilated patients future respiratory system elastance - A stochastic modelling approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Respiratory mechanics of mechanically ventilated patients evolve significantly with time, disease state and mechanical ventilation (MV) treatment. Existing deterministic data prediction methods fail to comprehensively describe the multiple sources of heterogeneity of biological systems. This research presents two respiratory mechanics stochastic models with increased prediction accuracy and range, offering improved clinical utility in MV treatment.

METHODS

Two stochastic models (SM2 and SM3) were developed using retrospective patient respiratory elastance (E_rs) from two clinical cohorts which were averaged over time intervals of 10 and 30 min respectively. A stochastic model from a previous study (SM1) was used to benchmark performance. The stochastic models were clinically validated on an independent retrospective clinical cohort of 14 patients. Differences in predictive ability were evaluated using the difference in percentile lines and cumulative distribution density (CDD) curves.

RESULTS

Clinical validation shows all three models captured more than 98% (median) of future E_rs data within the 5th - 95th percentile range. Comparisons of stochastic model percentile lines reported a maximum mean absolute percentage difference of 5.2%. The absolute differences of CDD curves were less than 0.25 in the ranges of 5 < E_rs (cmH₂O/L) < 85, suggesting similar predictive capabilities within this clinically relevant E_rs range.

CONCLUSION

The new stochastic models significantly improve prediction, clinical utility, and thus feasibility for synchronisation with clinical interventions. Paired with other MV protocols, the stochastic models developed can potentially form part of decision support systems, providing guided, personalised, and safe MV treatment.

Stochastic integrated model-based protocol for volume-controlled ventilation setting

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is the primary form of care for respiratory failure patients. MV settings are based on general clinical guidelines, intuition, and experience. This approach is not patient-specific and patients may thus experience suboptimal, potentially harmful MV care. This study presents the Stochastic integrated VENT (SiVENT) protocol which combines model-based approaches of the VENT protocol from previous works, with stochastic modelling to take the variation of patient respiratory elastance over time into consideration.

METHODS

A stochastic model of Ers is integrated into the VENT protocol from previous works to develop the SiVENT protocol, to account for both intra- and inter-patient variability. A cohort of 20 virtual MV patients based on retrospective patient data are used to validate the performance of this method for volume-controlled (VC) ventilation. A performance evaluation was conducted where the SiVENT and VENT protocols were implemented in 1080 instances each to compare the two protocols and evaluate the difference in reduction of possible MV settings achieved by each.

RESULTS

From an initial number of 189,000 possible MV setting combinations, the VENT protocol reduced this number to a median of 10,612, achieving a reduction of 94.4% across the cohort. With the integration of the stochastic model component, the SiVENT protocol reduced this number from 189,000 to a median of 9329, achieving a reduction of 95.1% across the cohort. The SiVENT protocol reduces the number of possible combinations provided to the user by more than 1000 combinations as compared to the VENT protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding a stochastic model component into a model-based approach to selecting MV settings improves the ability of a decision support system to recommend patient-specific MV settings. It specifically considers inter- and intra-patient variability in respiratory elastance and eliminates potentially harmful settings based on clinically recommended pressure thresholds. Clinical input and local protocols can further reduce the number of safe setting combinations. The results for the SiVENT protocol justify further investigation of its prediction accuracy and clinical validation trials.

Model-based patient matching for in-parallel pressure-controlled ventilation

Background

Surges of COVID-19 infections have led to insufficient supply of mechanical ventilators (MV), resulting in rationing of MV care. In-parallel, co-mechanical ventilation (Co-MV) of multiple patients is a potential solution. However, due to lack of testing, there is currently no means to match ventilation requirements or patients, with no guidelines to date. In this research, we have developed a model-based method for patient matching for pressure control mode MV.

Methods

The model-based method uses a single-compartment lung model (SCM) to simulate the resultant tidal volume of patient pairs at a set ventilation setting. If both patients meet specified safe ventilation criteria under similar ventilation settings, the actual mechanical ventilator settings for Co-MV are determined via simulation using a double-compartment lung model (DCM). This method allows clinicians to analyse Co-MV in silico, before clinical implementation.

Results

The proposed method demonstrates successful patient matching and MV setting in a model-based simulation as well as good discrimination to avoid mismatched patient pairs. The pairing process is based on model-based, patient-specific respiratory mechanics identified from measured data to provide useful information for guiding care. Specifically, the matching is performed via estimation of MV delivered tidal volume (mL/kg) based on patient-specific respiratory mechanics. This information can provide insights for the clinicians to evaluate the subsequent effects of Co-MV. In addition, it was also found that Co-MV patients with highly restrictive respiratory mechanics and obese patients must be performed with extra care.

Conclusion

This approach allows clinicians to analyse patient matching in a virtual environment without patient risk. The approach is tested in simulation, but the results justify the necessary clinical validation in human trials.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12938-022-00983-y.

Protocol conception for safe selection of mechanical ventilation settings for respiratory failure Patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mechanical ventilation is the primary form of care provided to respiratory failure patients. Limited guidelines and conflicting results from major clinical trials means selection of mechanical ventilation settings relies heavily on clinician experience and intuition. Determining optimal mechanical ventilation settings is therefore difficult, where non-optimal mechanical ventilation can be deleterious. To overcome these difficulties, this research proposes a model-based method to manage the wide range of possible mechanical ventilation settings, while also considering patient-specific conditions and responses.

METHODS

This study shows the design and development of the "VENT" protocol, which integrates the single compartment linear lung model with clinical recommendations from landmark studies, to aid clinical decision-making in selecting mechanical ventilation settings. Using retrospective breath data from a cohort of 24 patients, 3,566 and 2,447 clinically implemented VC and PC settings were extracted respectively. Using this data, a VENT protocol application case study and clinical comparison is performed, and the prediction accuracy of the VENT protocol is validated against actual measured outcomes of pressure and volume.

RESULTS

The study shows the VENT protocols' potential use in narrowing an overwhelming number of possible mechanical ventilation setting combinations by up to 99.9%. The comparison with retrospective clinical data showed that only 33% and 45% of clinician settings were approved by the VENT protocol. The unapproved settings were mainly due to exceeding clinical recommended settings. When utilising the single compartment model in the VENT protocol for forecasting peak pressures and tidal volumes, median [IQR] prediction error values of 0.75 [0.31 - 1.83] cmH₂O and 0.55 [0.19 - 1.20] mL/kg were obtained.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing the proposed protocol with retrospective clinically implemented settings shows the protocol can prevent harmful mechanical ventilation setting combinations for which clinicians would be otherwise unaware. The VENT protocol warrants a more detailed clinical study to validate its potential usefulness in a clinical setting.

Assessing the Asynchrony Event Based on the Ventilation Mode for Mechanically Ventilated Patients in ICU

Respiratory system modelling can assist clinicians in making clinical decisions during mechanical ventilation (MV) management in intensive care. However, there are some cases where the MV patients produce asynchronous breathing (asynchrony events) due to the spontaneous breathing (SB) effort even though they are fully sedated. Currently, most of the developed models are only suitable for fully sedated patients, which means they cannot be implemented for patients who produce asynchrony in their breathing. This leads to an incorrect measurement of the actual underlying mechanics in these patients. As a result, there is a need to develop a model that can detect asynchrony in real-time and at the bedside throughout the ventilated days. This paper demonstrates the asynchronous event detection of MV patients in the ICU of a hospital by applying a developed extended time-varying elastance model. Data from 10 mechanically ventilated respiratory failure patients admitted at the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) Hospital were collected. The results showed that the model-based technique precisely detected asynchrony events (AEs) throughout the ventilation days. The patients showed an increase in AEs during the ventilation period within the same ventilation mode. SIMV mode produced much higher asynchrony compared to SPONT mode (p < 0.05). The link between AEs and the lung elastance (AUC Edrs) was also investigated. It was found that when the AEs increased, the AUC Edrs decreased and vice versa based on the results obtained in this research. The information of AEs and AUC Edrs provides the true underlying lung mechanics of the MV patients. Hence, this model-based method is capable of detecting the AEs in fully sedated MV patients and providing information that can potentially guide clinicians in selecting the optimal ventilation mode of MV, allowing for precise monitoring of respiratory mechanics in MV patients.

Stochastic Modelling of Respiratory System Elastance for Mechanically Ventilated Respiratory Failure Patients

While lung protective mechanical ventilation (MV) guidelines have been developed to avoid ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI), a one-size-fits-all approach cannot benefit every individual patient. Hence, there is significant need for the ability to provide patient-specific MV settings to ensure safety, and optimise patient care. Model-based approaches enable patient-specific care by identifying time-varying patient-specific parameters, such as respiratory elastance, E_rs, to capture inter- and intra-patient variability. However, patient-specific parameters evolve with time, as a function of disease progression and patient condition, making predicting their future values crucial for recommending patient-specific MV settings. This study employs stochastic modelling to predict future E_rs values using retrospective patient data to develop and validate a model indicating future intra-patient variability of E_rs. Cross validation results show stochastic modelling can predict future elastance ranges with 92.59 and 68.56% of predicted values within the 5-95% and the 25-75% range, respectively. This range can be used to ensure patients receive adequate minute ventilation should elastance rise and minimise the risk of VILI should elastance fall. The results show the potential for model-based protocols using stochastic model prediction of future E_rs values to provide safe and patient-specific MV. These results warrant further investigation to validate its clinical utility.

Model-based PEEP titration versus standard practice in mechanical ventilation: a randomised controlled trial

Background

Positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) at minimum respiratory elastance during mechanical ventilation (MV) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) may improve patient care and outcome. The Clinical utilisation of respiratory elastance (CURE) trial is a two-arm, randomised controlled trial (RCT) investigating the performance of PEEP selected at an objective, model-based minimal respiratory system elastance in patients with ARDS.

Methods and design

The CURE RCT compares two groups of patients requiring invasive MV with a partial pressure of arterial oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) ratio ≤ 200; one criterion of the Berlin consensus definition of moderate (≤ 200) or severe (≤ 100) ARDS. All patients are ventilated using pressure controlled (bi-level) ventilation with tidal volume = 6–8 ml/kg. Patients randomised to the control group will have PEEP selected per standard practice (SPV). Patients randomised to the intervention will have PEEP selected based on a minimal elastance using a model-based computerised method. The CURE RCT is a single-centre trial in the intensive care unit (ICU) of Christchurch hospital, New Zealand, with a target sample size of 320 patients over a maximum of 3 years. The primary outcome is the area under the curve (AUC) ratio of arterial blood oxygenation to the fraction of inspired oxygen over time. Secondary outcomes include length of time of MV, ventilator-free days (VFD) up to 28 days, ICU and hospital length of stay, AUC of oxygen saturation (SpO₂)/FiO₂ during MV, number of desaturation events (SpO₂ < 88%), changes in respiratory mechanics and chest x-ray index scores, rescue therapies (prone positioning, nitric oxide use, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) and hospital and 90-day mortality.

Discussion

The CURE RCT is the first trial comparing significant clinical outcomes in patients with ARDS in whom PEEP is selected at minimum elastance using an objective model-based method able to quantify and consider both inter-patient and intra-patient variability. CURE aims to demonstrate the hypothesized benefit of patient-specific PEEP and attest to the significance of real-time monitoring and decision-support for MV in the critical care environment.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12614001069640. Registered on 22 September 2014.

(https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=366838&isReview=true) The CURE RCT clinical protocol and data usage has been granted by the New Zealand South Regional Ethics Committee (Reference number: 14/STH/132).

Mechanically ventilated premature babies have sex differences in specific elastance: A pilot study

OBJECTIVES

A pilot study to compare pulmonary mechanics in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) cohort, specifically, comparing lung elastance between male and female infants in the NICU.

HYPOTHESIS

Anecdotally, male infants are harder to ventilate than females. We hypothesize that males have higher model-based elastance (converse: lower specific compliance) compared to females, reflecting underlying stiffer lungs.

STUDY DESIGN

A clinically validated, single-compartment model is used to identify specific elastance (inverse of specific compliance) and resistance for each breath. Specific elastance accounts for weight differences when comparing male and female infants. Relative percent breath-to-breath variability (%ΔE) in specific elastance is also compared. Level of asynchrony was also determined.

PATIENT-SUBJECT SELECTION

Ten invasively mechanically ventilated patients from Christchurch Women's Hospital.

METHODOLOGY

Airway pressure and flow data from 10 invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) infants from Christchurch Women's Hospital Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, New Zealand was prospectively recorded under standard MV care. Model-based specific elastance and resistance are identified for each breath, as well as relative percent breath-to-breath variability (%ΔE) in specific elastance.

RESULTS

Male infants overall had higher specific elastance compared to females infants (P ≤ .01), with median (interquartile range) for males of 1.91 (1.33-2.48) cmH₂ O·kg/mL compared to 1.31 (0.86-2.02) cmH₂ O·kg/mL in females. Male infants had lower variability with %ΔE of -0.03 (-7.56 to 8.01)% vs female infants of -0.59 (12.56-12.86)%. Males had 14.75% asynchronous breaths whereas females had 17.54%.

CONCLUSION

Overall, males had higher specific elastance and correspondingly lower breath-to-breath variability. These results indicate male and female infants may require different MV settings, mode, and monitoring.

Parameter estimation in a minimal model of cardio-pulmonary interactions

Mechanical ventilation is a widely used breathing support for patients in intensive care. Its effects on the respiratory and cardiovascular systems are complex and difficult to predict. This work first presents a minimal mathematical model representing the mechanics of both systems and their interaction, in terms of flows, pressures and volumes. The aim of this model is to get insight on the two systems' status when mechanical ventilation settings, such as positive end-expiratory pressure, are changing. The parameters of the model represent cardiac elastances and vessel compliances and resistances. As a second step, these parameters are estimated from 16 experimental datasets. The data come from three pig experiments reproducing intensive care conditions, where a large range of positive end-expiratory pressures was imposed by the mechanical ventilator. The data used for parameter estimation is limited to information available in the intensive care unit, such as stroke volume, central venous pressure and systemic arterial pressure. The model is able to satisfactorily reproduce this experimental data, with mean relative errors ranging from 1 to 26%. The model also reproduces the dynamics of the cardio-vascular and respiratory systems, and their interaction. By looking at the estimated parameter values, one can quantitatively track how the two coupled systems mechanically react to changes in external conditions imposed by the ventilator. This work thus allows real-time, model-based management of ventilator settings.

Optimising mechanical ventilation through model-based methods and automation

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is a core life-support therapy for patients suffering from respiratory failure or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Respiratory failure is a secondary outcome of a range of injuries and diseases, and results in almost half of all intensive care unit (ICU) patients receiving some form of MV. Funding the increasing demand for ICU is a major issue and MV, in particular, can double the cost per day due to significant patient variability, over-sedation, and the large amount of clinician time required for patient management. Reducing cost in this area requires both a decrease in the average duration of MV by improving care, and a reduction in clinical workload. Both could be achieved by safely automating all or part of MV care via model-based dynamic systems modelling and control methods are ideally suited to address these problems. This paper presents common lung models, and provides a vision for a more automated future and explores predictive capacity of some current models. This vision includes the use of model-based methods to gain real-time insight to patient condition, improve safety through the forward prediction of outcomes to changes in MV, and develop virtual patients for in-silico design and testing of clinical protocols. Finally, the use of dynamic systems models and system identification to guide therapy for improved personalised control of oxygenation and MV therapy in the ICU will be considered. Such methods are a major part of the future of medicine, which includes greater personalisation and predictive capacity to both optimise care and reduce costs. This review thus presents the state of the art in how dynamic systems and control methods can be applied to transform this core area of ICU medicine.

Evaluation of model-based methods in estimating respiratory mechanics in the presence of variable patient effort

Monitoring of respiratory mechanics is required for guiding patient-specific mechanical ventilation settings in critical care. Many models of respiratory mechanics perform poorly in the presence of variable patient effort. Typical modelling approaches either attempt to mitigate the effect of the patient effort on the airway pressure waveforms, or attempt to capture the size and shape of the patient effort. This work analyses a range of methods to identify respiratory mechanics in volume controlled ventilation modes when there is patient effort. The models are compared using 4 Datasets, each with a sample of 30 breaths before, and 2-3 minutes after sedation has been administered. The sedation will reduce patient efforts, but the underlying pulmonary mechanical properties are unlikely to change during this short time. Model identified parameters from breathing cycles with patient effort are compared to breathing cycles that do not have patient effort. All models have advantages and disadvantages, so model selection may be specific to the respiratory mechanics application. However, in general, the combined method of iterative interpolative pressure reconstruction, and stacking multiple consecutive breaths together has the best performance over the Dataset. The variability of identified elastance when there is patient effort is the lowest with this method, and there is little systematic offset in identified mechanics when sedation is administered.

A virtual patient model for mechanical ventilation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is a primary therapy for patients with acute respiratory failure. However, poorly selected ventilator settings can cause further lung damage due to heterogeneity of healthy and damaged alveoli. Varying positive-end-expiratory-pressure (PEEP) to a point of minimum elastance is a lung protective ventilator strategy. However, even low levels of PEEP can lead to ventilator induced lung injury for individuals with highly inflamed pulmonary tissue. Hence, models that could accurately predict peak inspiratory pressures after changes to PEEP could improve clinician confidence in attempting potentially beneficial treatment strategies.

METHODS

This study develops and validates a physiologically relevant respiratory model that captures elastance and resistance via basis functions within a well-validated single compartment lung model. The model can be personalised using information available at a low PEEP to predict lung mechanics at a higher PEEP. Proof of concept validation is undertaken with data from four patients and eight recruitment manoeuvre arms.

RESULTS

Results show low error when predicting upwards over the clinically relevant pressure range, with the model able to predict peak inspiratory pressure with less than 10% error over 90% of the range of PEEP changes up to 12 cmH₂O.

CONCLUSIONS

The results provide an in-silico model-based means of predicting clinically relevant responses to changes in MV therapy, which is the foundation of a first virtual patient for MV.

Assessing mechanical ventilation asynchrony through iterative airway pressure reconstruction

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Respiratory mechanics estimation can be used to guide mechanical ventilation (MV) but is severely compromised when asynchronous breathing occurs. In addition, asynchrony during MV is often not monitored and little is known about the impact or magnitude of asynchronous breathing towards recovery. Thus, it is important to monitor and quantify asynchronous breathing over every breath in an automated fashion, enabling the ability to overcome the limitations of model-based respiratory mechanics estimation during asynchronous breathing ventilation.

METHODS

An iterative airway pressure reconstruction (IPR) method is used to reconstruct asynchronous airway pressure waveforms to better match passive breathing airway waveforms using a single compartment model. The reconstructed pressure enables estimation of respiratory mechanics of airway pressure waveform essentially free from asynchrony. Reconstruction enables real-time breath-to-breath monitoring and quantification of the magnitude of the asynchrony (M_Asyn).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Over 100,000 breathing cycles from MV patients with known asynchronous breathing were analyzed. The IPR was able to reconstruct different types of asynchronous breathing. The resulting respiratory mechanics estimated using pressure reconstruction were more consistent with smaller interquartile range (IQR) compared to respiratory mechanics estimated using asynchronous pressure. Comparing reconstructed pressure with asynchronous pressure waveforms quantifies the magnitude of asynchronous breathing, which has a median value M_Asyn for the entire dataset of 3.8%.

CONCLUSION

The iterative pressure reconstruction method is capable of identifying asynchronous breaths and improving respiratory mechanics estimation consistency compared to conventional model-based methods. It provides an opportunity to automate real-time quantification of asynchronous breathing frequency and magnitude that was previously limited to invasively method only.

Next-generation, personalised, model-based critical care medicine: a state-of-the art review of in silico virtual patient models, methods, and cohorts, and how to validation them

Critical care, like many healthcare areas, is under a dual assault from significantly increasing demographic and economic pressures. Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are highly variable in response to treatment, and increasingly aging populations mean ICUs are under increasing demand and their cohorts are increasingly ill. Equally, patient expectations are growing, while the economic ability to deliver care to all is declining. Better, more productive care is thus the big challenge. One means to that end is personalised care designed to manage the significant inter- and intra-patient variability that makes the ICU patient difficult. Thus, moving from current "one size fits all" protocolised care to adaptive, model-based "one method fits all" personalised care could deliver the required step change in the quality, and simultaneously the productivity and cost, of care. Computer models of human physiology are a unique tool to personalise care, as they can couple clinical data with mathematical methods to create subject-specific models and virtual patients to design new, personalised and more optimal protocols, as well as to guide care in real-time. They rely on identifying time varying patient-specific parameters in the model that capture inter- and intra-patient variability, the difference between patients and the evolution of patient condition. Properly validated, virtual patients represent the real patients, and can be used in silico to test different protocols or interventions, or in real-time to guide care. Hence, the underlying models and methods create the foundation for next generation care, as well as a tool for safely and rapidly developing personalised treatment protocols over large virtual cohorts using virtual trials. This review examines the models and methods used to create virtual patients. Specifically, it presents the models types and structures used and the data required. It then covers how to validate the resulting virtual patients and trials, and how these virtual trials can help design and optimise clinical trial. Links between these models and higher order, more complex physiome models are also discussed. In each section, it explores the progress reported up to date, especially on core ICU therapies in glycemic, circulatory and mechanical ventilation management, where high cost and frequency of occurrence provide a significant opportunity for model-based methods to have measurable clinical and economic impact. The outcomes are readily generalised to other areas of medical care.

Extrapolation of a non-linear autoregressive model of pulmonary mechanics

For patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), mechanical ventilation (MV) is an essential therapy in the intensive care unit (ICU). Suboptimal PEEP levels in MV can cause ventilator induced lung injury, which is associated with increased mortality, extended ICU stay, and high cost. The ability to predict the outcome of respiratory mechanics in response to changes in PEEP would thus provide a critical advantage in personalising and improving care. Testing the potentially dangerous high pressures would not be required to assess their impact. A nonlinear autoregressive (NARX) model was used to predict airway pressure in 19 data sets from 10 mechanically ventilated ARDS patients. Patient-specific NARX models were identified from pressure and flow data over one, two, three, or four adjacent PEEP levels in a recruitment manoeuvre. Extrapolation of NARX model elastance functions allowed prediction of patient responses to PEEP changes to higher or lower pressures. NARX model predictions were more successful than those using a well validated first order model (FOM). The most clinically important results were for extrapolation up one PEEP step of 2cmH₂O from the highest PEEP in the training data. When the NARX model was trained on one PEEP level, the mean RMS residual for the extrapolation PEEP level was 0.52 (90% CI: 0.47-0.57) cmH₂O, compared to 1.50 (90% CI: 1.38-1.62) cmH₂O for the FOM. When trained on four PEEP levels, the NARX result was 0.50 (90% CI: 0.42-0.58) cmH₂O, and was 1.95 (90% CI: 1.71-2.19) cmH₂O for the FOM. The results suggest that a full recruitment manoeuvre may not be required for the NARX model to obtain a useful estimate of the pressure waveform at higher PEEP levels. The methodology could thus allow clinicians to make informed decisions about ventilator PEEP settings while reducing the risk associated with high PEEP, and subsequent high peak airway pressures.

A polynomial model of patient-specific breathing effort during controlled mechanical ventilation

Patient breathing efforts occurring during controlled ventilation causes perturbations in pressure data, which cause erroneous parameter estimation in conventional models of respiratory mechanics. A polynomial model of patient effort can be used to capture breath-specific effort and underlying lung condition. An iterative multiple linear regression is used to identify the model in clinical volume controlled data. The polynomial model has lower fitting error and more stable estimates of respiratory elastance and resistance in the presence of patient effort than the conventional single compartment model. However, the polynomial model can converge to poor parameter estimation when patient efforts occur very early in the breath, or for long duration. The model of patient effort can provide clinical benefits by providing accurate respiratory mechanics estimation and monitoring of breath-to-breath patient effort, which can be used by clinicians to guide treatment.