Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis

Colorectal cancer mortality trend analysis in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in Europe. This study aimed to investigate CRC mortality trends in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018 and critically review the impact of preventive activities on cancer suppression in this country. We used the national CRC mortality data categorized by sex and age. Mortality rates were age-standardized according to the World Standard Population. The trends were described using regression techniques. In the period from 1990 to 2018, there was a significant increase in CRC mortality (P < .05). The death rates and the number of deaths from CRC were constantly increasing for both the overall level and gender, with the mean annual percentage change for the rates respectively average annual percent change (95% confidence interval-CI): 2.6% (1.9-3.2), 2.6% (1.8-3.5); 2.3% (1.3-3.3), and for the number of cases, respectively: 4.2% (3.5-4.9), 4.3% (3.3-5.3), 4.3% (3.2-5.5). The most affected age groups were 65 to 74 years (33%), followed by those aged 75 to 84 years (25%) and the age group 55 to 64 (22%). In Montenegro, CRC mortality trends are increasing among both men and women over the age of 45. Additional research on the risk factors and mechanisms that contribute to the unfavorable trends in CRC mortality in Montenegro is necessary.

Colorectal Cancer: Is it Still a Disease of the Elderly?

<b><br>Introduction:</b> Colorectal cancer is becoming an increasingly significant health issue, being one of the more commonly diagnosed malignancies. Colorectal tumors account for 10% of all malignant cancers in women and 12% in men. Incidence is higher in the male population, especially among younger individuals. It is commonly believed that colorectal cancer is predominantly associated with advanced age. However, colorectal surgeons, who specialize in the treatment of this type of cancer, are observing a growing number of cases among middle-aged and younger individuals.</br> <b><br>Aim:</b> The aim of our study was to investigate whether colorectal cancer still predominantly affects elderly individuals, how frequently it is diagnosed in younger patients, and whether the location of tumors in the intestines of younger patients aligns with data from elderly individuals.</br> <b><br>Materials and methods:</b> The study was conducted retrospectively and included a cohort of 1771 patients who underwent surgical procedures due to colorectal cancer between 2012 and 2015 at the Department of General and Colorectal Surgery at the Medical University of Łódź and between 2014 and 2017 at the Department of General Surgery with a Division of Surgical Oncology at the District Health Center in Brzeziny. Data were analyzed regarding the frequency of colorectal cancer occurrence by age, tumor location in different age groups, and disease stage according to age. Age groups included <40 years, 41-50 years, 51-70 years, and >70 years.</br> <b><br>Results:</b> The study encompassed a total of 1771 patients, with 988 (55.79%) being males and 783 (44.21%) females. The mean age of the patients was 65.27 11.12 years. The highest number of cases was observed in the age range of 60-70 years and 70-80 years. It was found that colorectal tumors in males more frequently occurred on the left side of the colon and rectum, while in females, they were more commonly located on the right side of the colon, which was statistically significant (P = 0.007). Younger age groups of patients (<40 years, 40-50 years) had a similar male-to-female ratio, whereas in age groups above 50 years, males significantly outnumbered females (P = 0.049). The study revealed that in the group of patients below 40 years of age, an advanced stage of colorectal cancer was significantly more common; stage D occurred over twice as often as in the 51-70 age group and over three times as often as in the >70 age group.</br> <b><br>Conclusions:</b> The incidence of colorectal cancer in Poland is steadily increasing, with a growing number of diagnoses in younger individuals. Research findings demonstrate that males, especially those in younger age groups, are at a higher risk of developing colorectal cancer. A higher disease stage is more frequently observed in younger patients, possibly due to delayed diagnosis and symptomatic treatment. Screening programs should be adjusted to the changing age groups at higher risk. Our study underlines the need to raise public awareness regarding colorectal cancer, particularly among the younger population.</br>.

Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends and Analysis of Risk Factors in China from 2005 to 2015

Purpose

This study aimed to analyze incidence and mortality trends and risk factors of colorectal cancer (CRC) in China during 2005–2015.

Materials and Methods

Patient cases were extracted from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Joinpoint regression and Poisson regression were applied to analyze incidence and mortality trends and risk factors of CRC. Age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the age, period and cohort effects on CRC.

Results

The standardized incidence and mortality rate of CRC in China showed a decreasing trend during 2005–2015. The incidence in men (APC=−1.22%, P<0.05) decreased from 2005 to 2015 and decreased in women (APC =−3.55%, P<0.05) from 2005 to 2013, then increased during 2013–2015 (APC =18.77%, P<0.05). The incidence and mortality in urban areas were higher than those in rural (The incidence in urban: APC =−0.97%, P<0.05; rural: APC =1.94%, P<0.05; the mortality in urban: APC =−0.67%, P<0.05; rural: APC =0.29%). For age-specific rates, the incidence begins to increase significantly at 40–45 age group and reached a peak at 75; the mortality increased significantly at 45–50. The age effect increased with age in general. The 1920 birth cohort had the highest risk of colorectal cancer incidence and death. Poisson regression showed region, gender and age were independent risk factors of CRC.

Conclusion

The age-adjusted standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-adjusted standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CRC in China during 2005–2015 were decreasing. A great concern on men, rural areas and people aged over 75 should be aroused to prevent colorectal cancer.

Approaches to the problem of nonidentifiability in the age-period-cohort models in the analysis of cancer mortality: a scoping review

Aiming to detect age, period and cohort effects in cancer mortality, age-period-cohort models (APC) can be applied to distinguish these effects. The main difficulty with adjusting an APC model involving age, period and cohort factors is the linear relationship between them, leading to a condition known as the 'nonidentifiability problem'. Many methods have been developed by statisticians to solve it, but there is not a consensus. All these existing methods, with their advantages and disadvantages, create confusion when choosing which one of them should be implemented. In this context, the present scoping review intends not to show all methods developed to avoid the nonidentifiability problem on APC models but to show which of them are, in fact, applied in the literature, especially in the cancer mortality studies. A search strategy was made to identify evidence on MEDLINE (PubMed), Scopus, EMBASE, Science Direct and Web of Science. A total of 46 papers were analyzed. The main methods found were: Holford's method (n = 14; 30%), ntrinsic estimator (n = 10; 22%), Osmond & Gardner method n = 8; 17%), Carstensen (n = 6;13%), Bayesian approach (n = 6;13%) and others (n = 2; 5%). Even with their limitations, all methods have beneficial applications. However, the decision to use one or another method seemed to be more related to an observed geographic pattern.

The 1918 influenza pandemic did not accelerate tuberculosis mortality decline in early-20th century Newfoundland: Investigating historical and social explanations

OBJECTIVES

The selective mortality hypothesis of tuberculosis after the 1918 influenza pandemic, laid out by Noymer and colleagues, suggests that acute exposure or pre-existing infection with tuberculosis (TB) increased the probability of pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic, leading to a hastened decline of TB mortality in post-pandemic years. This study describes cultural determinants of the post-pandemic TB mortality patterns in Newfoundland and evaluates whether there is support for this observation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Death records and historical documents from the Provincial Archives of Newfoundland and Labrador were used to calculate age-standardized island-wide and sex-based TB mortality, as well as region-level TB mortality, for 1900-1939. The Joinpoint Regression Program (version 4.8.0.1) was used to estimate statistically significant changes in mortality rates.

RESULTS

Island-wide, females had consistently higher TB mortality for the duration of the study period and a significant shift to lower TB mortality beginning in 1928. There was no similar predicted significant decline for males. On the regional level, no models predicted a significant decline after the 1918 influenza pandemic, except for the West, where significant decline was predicted in the late-1930s.

DISCUSSION

Although there was no significant decline in TB mortality observed immediately post-pandemic, as has been shown for other Western nations, the female post-pandemic pattern suggests a decline much later. The general lack of significant decrease in TB mortality rate is likely due to Newfoundland's poor nutrition and lack of centralized healthcare rather than a biological interaction between P&I and TB.

Trends in Blood Lead Levels in the U.S. From 1999 to 2016

INTRODUCTION

Trends in blood lead levels in the same birth cohort (generation) are necessary to identify the lead load in the population. This analysis uses a nationally representative sample to investigate the trends in blood lead levels from 1999 to 2016 by birth cohort and to revisit the association between blood lead levels and age.

METHODS

Data from the 1996 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were used to describe the distribution of blood lead levels. Trends in blood lead levels were analyzed using joinpoint regression models. Association of blood lead levels with age was conducted with both cross-sectional and birth cohort analysis. Analyses were conducted in 2020.

RESULTS

In total, 68,877 participants were included (weighted mean age=38.4 years, 50.6% female). From 1999 to 2016, the geometric mean of blood lead levels decreased from 1.68 µg/dL (95% CI=1.63, 1.74) to 0.82 µg/dL (95% CI=0.77, 0.87). The annual percentage change estimated by the joinpoint model was -4.26% (p<0.05). The associations between blood lead levels and age were "U"-shaped by cross-sectional analysis, with higher risks for the lowest and highest ages. However, by birth cohort analysis the blood lead levels declined monotonically with age. The joinpoint analysis indicated the inflection point of age 13-17 years and statistically significant differences in decline slopes before and after this age.

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationally representative study of the U.S. population, estimates of blood lead levels showed an overall decrease from 1999 to 2016. Blood lead levels are highest in childhood.

Mortality Trends in Colorectal Cancer in China During 2000-2015: A Joinpoint Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

INTRODUCTION

As lifestyles have increasingly become westernized in China, public health strategies have increasingly focused on cancer prevention. The objective of this study was to describe trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality and the age, period, and cohort effects of CRC mortality in urban and rural China from 2000 to 2015.

METHODS

We collected CRC mortality data from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. We used joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the slope of mortality trends. We then used the age-period-cohort (APC) model with intrinsic estimator to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects of CRC mortality.

RESULTS

CRC mortality was higher in urban areas than in rural areas, and the average annual percentage change was also larger in urban areas (4.1%) than in rural areas (3.7%). CRC mortality risk was higher among older adults than among adults aged 20 to 24: the relative risk among adults aged 60 to 64 was 31.09 times higher in urban China and 11.46 times higher in rural China. CRC mortality risk increased with period: compared with period 2000, the relative risk was 1.01 in period 2005, 1.36 in period 2010, and 1.42 in period 2015 in urban China and 1.12 in period 2005, 1.24 in period 2010, and 1.69 in period 2015 in rural China. More recent cohorts had lower CRC mortality risk: compared with the cohort born during 1920-1924, the relative risk of cohort 1950-1954 was 0.70 in urban China and 0.69 in rural China.

CONCLUSION

More interventions to reduce the burden of CRC should be conducted, and it is more necessary for older people and urban residents to adopt a healthy lifestyle in China.

Time trends of incidence and mortality in colorectal cancer in Changning District, Shanghai, 1975-2013

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) and the estimated patient's age, diagnostic duration and birth cohort effects in patients of Changning District, Shanghai.

METHODS

Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CRC over eight intervals of 5 years from 1975 to 2013 were determined. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine the changes in annual incidence and mortality trends. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate their effects on the incidence and mortality trends of CRC.

RESULTS

For incidence, the ASRs of 14.14 per 100 000 and 11.81 per 100 000 during 1975-1979 increased to 32.11 per 100 000 and 26.25 per 100 000 in men and women during 2008-2013. For mortality, ASRs of 9.40 per 100 000 and 8.76 per 100 000 increased to 14.80 per 100 000 and 11.92 per 100 000 in men and women, respectively, from 1975-1979 to 2010-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis found an increasing incidence (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 2.18% for men and 1.65% for women) and mortality (AAPC 1.47% for men and 0.97% for women) of CRC throughout the entire period. The incidence and mortality trends of CRC were significantly affected by birth cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The increasing incidence and mortality of CRC are largely affected by the effects of birth cohorts. The increased incidence of CRC may be attributed to changes in lifestyle and diet, while that in mortality trends may be resulted from increasing incidence, an aging population and changing lifestyles.

[Analysis of the age-period-cohort effect on mortality from colorectal cancer in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, from 1980 to 2014]

The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on mortality from colorectal cancer. The study analyzed data on deaths from this cancer in individuals over 35 years of age in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM) from 1980 to 2014. Mortality rates were calculated by gender and age bracket. The effect of age, period, and birth cohort was estimated by the method that uses estimable functions: deviations, curves, and drift in the Epi library of the R software. Standardized mortality rates from colorectal cancer were 27.37/100,000 men and 21.83/100,000 women in 2014. The data showed an increase in mortality from this cancer from 1980 to 2014, and mortality rates were higher in men than in women after the 1990s. Age effect was observed with an increase in the rates and aging. Generational analysis showed lower risk of death in older versus younger cohorts, possibly related to the adoption of the Western lifestyle. This scenario underscores the need for screening strategies aimed at early diagnosis and treatment of precursor lesions.

Next-generation sequencing reveals lymph node metastasis associated genetic markers in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer is the third most prevalent type of cancer in the United States. Early diagnosis of lymph node metastases is essential to improve the prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer. Therefore, the present study aimed to screen genetic markers, including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), copy number variations (CNVs) and mRNA expression, associated with lymph node metastases in patients with colorectal cancer to enable an early diagnosis. Targeted next-generation sequencing was applied to capture SNPs and CNVs in tumor-related candidate genes within tumor tissues from 39 colorectal cancer patients; reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used to detect the specific mRNA level of tumor-related candidate genes, including vascular endothelial growth factor C, cyclin-A2, Interleukin-2, ATP-binding cassette sub-family G member 2, epidermal growth factor (EGF) and nuclear factor kappa B subunit 1 (NFKB1) on chromosome 4. The SNPs in solute carrier family 28 member 3 (SLC28A3), breast cancer 1 (BRCA1), ribonucleotide reductase regulators subunit M2 (RRM2), PMS1 homolog 2 (PMS2), cytidine deaminase (CDA), epoxide hydrolase 1 (EPHX1), heterogenous ribonucleoprotein particle-associated with lethal yellow (RALY), Siglec-3 (CD33), B cell lymphoma 10 (BCL10), ETS variant 1 (ETV1), macrophage stimulating 1 receptor 1 (MST1R), lysine methyltransferase 2B (KMT2B), B cell lymphoma 2 (BCL2), U6 small nuclear RNA-associated Sm-like protein 3 (LSM3), thyroid transcription factor 1 (TTF1) and mitogen-activated protein 3 kinase 1 (MAP3K1) were significantly associated with lymphatic metastasis (P<0.05). EGF and NFKB1 were both observed to be significantly downregulated in the lymph node metastases group (P<0.05). Although no association between CNVs and lymph node metastases in patients with colorectal cancer was observed in the present study, SNPs in SLC28A3, BRCA1, RRM2, PMS2, CDA, EPHX1, RALY, CD33, BCL10, ETV1, MST1R, KMT2B, BCL2, LSM3, TTF1 and MAP3K1 were significantly associated with colorectal cancer. Downregulation of EGF and NFKB1 was also identified to be associated with lymph node metastases in colorectal cancer. The findings of the current study provide a scientific basis for the clinical inspection of lymphatic metastasis and prognosis prediction, intervention and guidance therapy for patients with colorectal cancer.