Relationship between serum calcium level at dialysis initiation and subsequent prognosis

Evaluation of laboratory values affecting mortality of end-stage renal disease patients: a competing risks approach

BACKGROUND

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a prevalent and life-threatening situation recognized as an emerging health issue. The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of demographic and laboratory parameters on the survival of patients with End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) in a hemodialysis (HD) center in Iran.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was conducted on patients receiving chronic HD in Iran Helal Pharmaceutical and Clinical Complex between 2014 and 2018. The survival time was considered as the time interval between HD initiation and death. Receiving kidney transplantation was regarded as a competing risk, and an improper form of two-parameter Weibull distribution was utilized to simultaneously model the time to both death and renal transplantation. The Bayesian approach was conducted for parameters estimation.

RESULTS

Overall, 29 (26.6%) patients expired, and 19 (17.4%) received kidney transplants. The male gender was related to poor survival, having nearly 4.6 folds higher hazard of mortality (90% HPD region: 1.36-15.49). Moreover, Serum calcium levels [Formula: see text]9.5 mg/dL (adjusted Sub-hazard ratio (S-HR)=2.33, 90% HPD region: 1.05-5.32) and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) [Formula: see text]150 pg/mL (adjusted S-HR = 2.56, 90% HPD region: 1.09-6.15) were associated with an elevated hazard of mortality. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) for transplantation was greater than death in the first two years of the study. Subsequently, the CIF for death exceeded transplantation in the following two years. The 4-year cumulative incidence of death and kidney transplantation was 63.7% and 36.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Male gender, hypercalcemia, and hypoparathyroidism were associated with worse outcomes. Correcting mentioned laboratory parameters may improve patients' survival in the HD population.

Identifying the Association of Time-Averaged Serum Albumin Levels with Clinical Factors among Patients on Hemodialysis Using Whale Optimization Algorithm

Time-averaged serum albumin (TSA) is commonly associated with clinical outcomes in hemodialysis (HD) patients and considered as a surrogate indicator of nutritional status. The whale optimization algorithm-based feature selection (WOFS) model could address the complex association between the clinical factors, and could further combine with regression models for application. The present study aimed to demonstrate an optimal multifactor TSA-associated model, in order to interpret the complex association between TSA and clinical factors among HD patients. A total of 829 HD patients who met the inclusion criteria were selected for analysis. Monthly serum albumin data tracked from January 2009 to December 2013 were converted into TSA categories based on a critical value of 3.5 g/dL. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the association between TSA categories and multiple clinical factors using three types of feature selection models, namely the fully adjusted, stepwise, and WOFS models. Five features, albumin, age, creatinine, potassium, and HD adequacy index (Kt/V level), were selected from fifteen clinical factors by the WOFS model, which is the minimum number of selected features required in multivariate regression models for optimal multifactor model construction. The WOFS model yielded the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value, which indicated that the WOFS model could achieve superior performance in the multifactor analysis of TSA for HD patients. In conclusion, the application of the optimal multifactor TSA-associated model could facilitate nutritional status monitoring in HD patients.

Survival and analysis of predictors of mortality in patients undergoing replacement renal therapy: a 20-year cohort

Background

optimal management of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in hemodialysis (HD) patients should be more studied because it is a serious risk factor for mortality, being considered an unquestionable global priority.

Methods

we performed a retrospective cohort study from the Nephrology Service in Brazil evaluating the survival of patients with ESRD in HD during 20 years. Kaplan-Meier method with the Log-Rank and Cox’s proportional hazards model explored the association between survival time and demographic factors, quality of treatment and laboratory values.

Results

Data from 422 patients were included. The mean survival time was 6.79 ± 0.37. The overall survival rates at first year was 82,3%. The survival time correlated significantly with clinical prognostic factors. Prognostic analyses with the Cox proportional hazards regression model and Kaplan-Meier survival curves further identified that leukocyte count (HR = 2.665, 95% CI: 1.39–5.12), serum iron (HR = 8.396, 95% CI: 2.02–34.96), serum calcium (HR = 4.102, 95% CI: 1.35–12.46) and serum protein (HR = 4.630, 95% CI: 2.07–10.34) as an independent risk factor for the prognosis of survival time, while patients with chronic obstructive pyelonephritis (HR = 0.085, 95% CI: 0.01–0.74), high ferritin values (HR = 0.392, 95% CI: 0.19–0.80), serum phosphorus (HR = 0.290, 95% CI: 0.19–0.61) and serum albumin (HR = 0.230, 95% CI: 0.10–0.54) were less risk to die.

Conclusion

survival remains low in the early years of ESRD treatment. The present study identified that elevated values of ferritin, serum calcium, phosphorus, albumin, leukocyte, serum protein and serum iron values as a useful prognostic factor for the survival time.

Hospital-Acquired Serum Ionized Calcium Derangements and Their Associations with In-Hospital Mortality

Background: The objective of this study was to report the incidence of in-hospital serum ionized calcium derangement and its impact on mortality. Methods: We included 12,599 non-dialytic adult patients hospitalized at a tertiary medical center from January 2009 to December 2013 with normal serum ionized calcium at admission and at least 2 in-hospital serum ionized calcium values. Using serum ionized calcium of 4.60–5.40 mg/dL as the normal reference range, in-hospital serum ionized calcium levels were categorized based on the presence of hypocalcemia and hypercalcemia in hospital. We performed logistic regression to assess the relationship of in-hospital serum ionized calcium derangement with mortality. Results: Fifty-four percent of patients developed new serum ionized calcium derangements: 42% had in-hospital hypocalcemia only, 4% had in-hospital hypercalcemia only, and 8% had both in-hospital hypocalcemia and hypercalcemia. In-hospital hypocalcemia only (OR 1.28; 95% CI 1.01–1.64), in-hospital hypercalcemia only (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.02–2.68), and both in-hospital hypocalcemia and hypercalcemia (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.14–2.62) were all significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality, compared with persistently normal serum ionized calcium levels. Conclusions: In-hospital serum ionized calcium derangements affect more than half of hospitalized patients and are associated with increased in-hospital mortality.

Hidden Hypocalcemia as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Events and All-Cause Mortality among Patients Undergoing Incident Hemodialysis

Lower corrected calcium (cCa) levels are associated with a better prognosis among incident dialysis patients. However, cCa frequently overestimates ionized calcium (iCa) levels. The prognostic importance of the true calcium status defined by iCa remains to be revealed. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of incident hemodialysis patients. We collected data of iCa levels immediately before the first dialysis. We divided patients into three categories: apparent hypocalcemia (low iCa; <1.15 mmol/L and low cCa; <8.4 mg/dL), hidden hypocalcemia (low iCa despite normal or high cCa), and normocalcemia (normal iCa). The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death and cardiovascular diseases after hospital discharge. Among the enrolled 332 patients, 75% of the patients showed true hypocalcemia, defined as iCa <1.15 mmol/L, 61% of whom showed hidden hypocalcemia. In multivariate Cox models including other potential risk factors, true hypocalcemia was a significant risk factor (hazard ratio [HR], 2.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–5.34), whereas hypocalcemia defined as corrected calcium <8.4 mg/dL was not. Furthermore, hidden hypocalcemia was significantly associated with an increased risk of the outcome compared with normocalcemia (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.11–5.94), while apparent hypocalcemia was not. Patients with hidden hypocalcemia were less likely to receive interventions to correct hypocalcemia, such as increased doses of active vitamin D or administration of calcium carbonate, than patients with apparent hypocalcemia (odds ratio, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23–0.89). Hidden hypocalcemia was a strong predictor of death and cardiovascular events, suggesting the importance of measuring iCa.

An unusual pattern of peritubular capillary injury involving apoptosis in a renal transplant patient

Microvascular injury is an important factor in renal allograft survival. Repeated episodes of endothelial injury from chronic antibody-mediated rejection typically manifest at the ultrastructural level as circumferential multilayering of remodeled glomerular basement membrane material and peritubular capillary basal lamina. In contrast to this typical pattern of microvascular injury, a renal transplantation case is presented in which focally dilated and multilayered segments of peritubular capillary basal lamina bearing lipid droplets were interspersed with ultrastructurally normal unilayered segments of basal lamina devoid of lipid droplets. Glomerular basement membranes were not affected by this process. The peak incidence of lipid droplets within the peritubular capillary walls coincided with a peak in apoptotic activity within the allograft. Lesser amounts of the same lipidic material were identified in the mesangial matrix and an arteriolar wall. Mesangial electron-dense deposits were detected at two weeks posttransplantation and their appearance coincided with elevated immunological activity in the glomeruli, as determined by immunofluorescence microscopy. The unusual ultrastructure and immunological activity observed in this case may reflect a process of impaired apoptotic clearance within the allograft. The six biopsies from a single patient are discussed in the setting of a highly sensitized renal transplant recipient who received prophylactic terminal complement blockade by eculizumab. The findings may be relevant to the study of apoptosis, efferocytosis, microvascular injury, eculizumab, rejection, lupus, and drug-related disease.

Evaluation of the Predictive Value of the Serum Calcium-Magnesium Ratio for All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients

Background/Aim

Cardiovascular disease is the most serious cause of death in patients on hemodialysis. Low serum magnesium (Mg) and high serum calcium (Ca) levels have been associated with poor outcome and cardiovascular mortality in patients on maintenance and initiation dialysis. As a more accurate marker is warranted, we evaluated the efficacy of a novel serum Ca-Mg marker of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality that indicates vessel calcification.

Methods

We recruited 378 consecutive patients with end-stage renal disease who started dialysis between January 2009 and December 2015 at the Japanese Red Cross Ishinomaki Hospital. We collected data of patients' demographic characteristics and comorbidities from their electronic medical records. We retrospectively examined the association of the serum Ca-Mg ratio with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality using the Cox proportional hazard model, and determined the value that predicted cardiovascular death using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

Overall, 253 patients with serum Mg and Ca data were analyzed. The 3-year survival rate of this group was 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.80), and the hazard ratio for the risk of death was 3.94 (95% CI 1.37-11.31). The 3-year cardiovascular mortality rate was 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.23), which was significantly higher than that of the other groups. The ROC curve of cardiovascular mortality with the Ca-Mg ratio was greater than that of Mg (area under the curve 0.75 vs. 0.69, p = 0.037).

Conclusion

A high Ca-Mg ratio was significantly associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and it was more accurate than serum Mg.

Risk of cardiovascular mortality predicted by the serum calcium level and calcification score at the initiation of dialysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between serum corrected calcium (CCa) level and vessel calcification at dialysis initiation and survival has seldom been evaluated. Therefore, we evaluated the efficacy of CCa levels and the calcification score at the initiation of dialysis for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

METHODS

The study group included 407 patients with ESRD, who started hemodialysis between January 2009 and December 2016 at the Red Cross Ishinomaki Hospital. The primary outcomes were the 1- and 3-year all-cause and CV mortality rate, with the association between CCa level and CVD-specific mortality evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.

RESULTS

Patients with a high initial CCa level were at higher risk for CVD-related, but not all-cause, mortality than patients with a low initial CCa level [hazard ratio (HR) 2.81; 95% confidence interval 1.05-7.55]. The HR for CVD-related mortality was also higher for patients with an Agatston vessel calcification score > 2000 (HR 13.9; 95% CI 1.63-118.2). Overall, the 3-year CVD-free rate was 88.2% (range 76.4-94.3%). Higher CCa level was associated with a higher Agatston score and cardiac valve calcification.

CONCLUSION

High serum CCa levels and an Agatston score > 2000 are independent risk factors of CVD mortality due to advanced vessel calcification.