Micro-stratification of malaria risk in Nepal: implications for malaria control and elimination

Analyzing Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Designated Malaria Risk Areas in Nepal from 2018 to 2021

Background: Nepal is preparing to eliminate malaria by 2026. To evaluate the progress of vector control and prioritize areas for targeted intervention, understanding the recent changing distribution of high and moderate malaria risk areas is vital. Methods: Patterns of designated high and moderate malaria risk wards in Nepal between 2018 and 2021 were analyzed to identify stable and newly generated high- and moderate-risk (HaMR) wards, using the Spatial Temporal Analysis of Moving Polygons (STAMP) method. Results and Conclusions: High-risk and moderate-risk wards decreased by about 55% and the number of districts containing these wards also decreased from 20 to 14. However, several stable and new HaMR wards, mostly in the northwest and the southwest of the country, are apparent, despite intervention efforts. Public health officials should prioritize those wards for malaria surveillance and vector control, and future studies should explore the underlying reasons for persistent risk wards.

Modeling malaria transmission in Nepal: impact of imported cases through cross-border mobility

The cross-border mobility of malaria cases poses an obstacle to malaria elimination programmes in many countries, including Nepal. Here, we develop a novel mathematical model to study how the imported malaria cases through the Nepal-India open-border affect the Nepal government's goal of eliminating malaria by 2026. Mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of our model, validated by malaria case data from Nepal, indicate that eliminating malaria from Nepal is possible if strategies promoting the absence of cross-border mobility, complete protection of transmission abroad, or strict border screening and isolation are implemented. For each strategy, we establish the conditions for the elimination of malaria. We further use our model to identify the control strategies that can help maintain a low endemic level. Our results show that the ideal control strategies should be designed according to the average mosquito biting rates that may depend on the location and season.

Factors affecting anaemia among women of reproductive age in Nepal: a multilevel and spatial analysis

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this study was to explore the factors affecting anaemia among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Nepal using spatial and multilevel epidemiological analysis.

DESIGN

This cross-sectional study analysed data from the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. Spatial analysis was performed using ArcGIS software V.10.8 to identify the hot and cold spots of anaemia among WRA (15-49 years). Data were analysed using multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression analysis.

SETTING

Nepal.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 6414 WRA were included in the analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Anaemia defined by WHO as haemoglobin level less than 120 g/L in non-pregnant women and less than 110 g/L in pregnant women.

RESULTS

The spatial analysis showed that statistically significant hotspots of anaemia were in the southern Terai region (four districts in province 1, eight districts in province 2, one district in Bagmati province, two districts in province 5 and one district in Sudurpaschim province) of Nepal. At the individual level, women who underwent female sterilisation (adjusted OR, aOR: 3.61, 95% CI 1.10 to 11.84), with no education (aOR: 1.99, 95% CI: 1.17 to 3.39), and from middle socioeconomic class families (aOR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.68) were more likely to be anaemic, whereas, older women (>35 years) (aOR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.26 to 0.97) and those women who were using hormonal contraceptives (aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.90) were less likely to be anaemic. At the community level, women from province 2 (aOR=2.97, 95% CI: 1.52 to 5.82) had higher odds of being anaemic.

CONCLUSION

WRA had higher odds of developing anaemia, and it varied by the geographical regions. Nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions can be tailored based on the factors identified in this study to curb the high burden of anaemia.

Multi-Indicator and Multistep Assessment of Malaria Transmission Risks in Western Kenya

Malaria risk factor assessment is a critical step in determining cost-effective intervention strategies and operational plans in a regional setting. We develop a multi-indicator multistep approach to model the malaria risks at the population level in western Kenya. We used a combination of cross-sectional seasonal malaria infection prevalence, vector density, and cohort surveillance of malaria incidence at the village level to classify villages into malaria risk groups through unsupervised classification. Generalized boosted multinomial logistics regression analysis was performed to determine village-level risk factors using environmental, biological, socioeconomic, and climatic features. Thirty-six villages in western Kenya were first classified into two to five operational groups based on different combinations of malaria risk indicators. Risk assessment indicated that altitude accounted for 45-65% of all importance value relative to all other factors; all other variable importance values were < 6% in all models. After adjusting by altitude, villages were classified into three groups within distinct geographic areas regardless of the combination of risk indicators. Risk analysis based on altitude-adjusted classification indicated that factors related to larval habitat abundance accounted for 63% of all importance value, followed by geographic features related to the ponding effect (17%), vegetation cover or greenness (15%), and the number of bed nets combined with February temperature (5%). These results suggest that altitude is the intrinsic factor in determining malaria transmission risk in western Kenya. Malaria vector larval habitat management, such as habitat reduction and larviciding, may be an important supplement to the current first-line vector control tools in the study area.

Malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting in Harari Region, Eastern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia has shown notable progress in reducing the burden of malaria over the past two decades. Because of this progress, the country has shifted efforts from control to elimination of malaria. This study was conducted to analyse the malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted to analyse the epidemiology of malaria by reviewing the district health office data from 2013 to 2019 in Harari Region. In addition, three years of sub-district level malaria data were used to stratify the malaria transmission intensity. Malaria interventions (Long-lasting insecticidal nets [LLIN] and indoor residual spraying [IRS]) employed were reviewed to analyse the intervention coverage at the Regional level. Descriptive statistics were used to show the malaria transmission in terms of years, season and species of the malaria parasite. Incidence rate per 1000 population and death rate per 1 000 000 population at risk were computed using the total population of each year.

RESULTS

In the Harari Region, malaria incidence showed a more pronounced declining trend from 2017 to 2019. Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax and mixed infections accounted for 69.2%, 30.6% and 0.2% of the cases, respectively. There was an increment in malaria intervention coverage and improved malaria diagnosis. In the year 2019 the coverage of LLIN and IRS in the Region were 93.4% and 85.1% respectively. The annual malaria incidence rate dropped from 42.9 cases per 1000 population in 2013 to 6.7 cases per 1000 population in 2019. Malaria-related deaths decreased from 4.7 deaths per 1 000 000 people annually in 2013 to zero, and there have been no deaths reported since 2015. The malaria risk appears to be heterogeneous and varies between districts. A higher number of malaria cases were recorded in Erer and Jenella districts, which constitute 62% of the cases in the Region. According to the sub-district level malaria stratification, there was shrinkage in the malaria transmission map and about 70% of the sub-districts have achieved elimination targets.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Harari Region, malaria morbidity and mortality have been significantly declined. Thus, if this achievement is sustained and scaling-up of the existing malaria prevention and control strategies by focusing on those populations living in the higher malaria transmission districts and sub-districts, planning of malaria elimination from the study area might be feasible.

G6PD deficiency in malaria endemic areas of Nepal

Background

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is currently a threat to malaria elimination due to risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis in G6PD deficient individuals. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends G6PD screening before providing primaquine as a radical treatment against vivax malaria. However, evidence regarding the prevalence and causing mutations of G6PD deficiency in Nepal is scarce.

Methods

A cross-sectional, population-based, prevalence study was carried out from May to October 2016 in 12 malaria-endemic districts of Nepal. The screening survey included 4067 participants whose G6PD status was determined by G6PD Care Start™ rapid diagnostic test and genotyping.

Results

The prevalence of G6PD deficiency at the national level was 3.5% (4.1% among males and 2.1% among females). When analysed according to ethnic groups, G6PD deficiency was highest among the Janajati (6.2% overall, 17.6% in Mahatto, 7.7% in Chaudhary and 7.5% in Tharu) and low among Brahman and Chhetri (1.3%). District-wise, prevalence was highest in Banke (7.6%) and Chitwan (6.6%). Coimbra mutation (592 C>T) was found among 75.5% of the G6PD-deficient samples analysed and Mahidol (487 G>A) and Mediterranean (563 C>T) mutations were found in equal proportions in the remaining 24.5%. There was no specific geographic or ethnic distribution for the three mutations.

Conclusions

This study has identified populations with moderate to high prevalence of G6PD deficiency which provides strong evidence supporting the WHO recommendations to screen G6PD deficiency at health facility level before the use of primaquine-based radical curative regimen for Plasmodium vivax.

The durability of long-lasting insecticidal nets distributed to the households between 2009 and 2013 in Nepal

Background

Understanding and improving the durability of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in the field are critical for planning future implementation strategies including behavioral change for care and maintenance. LLIN distribution at high coverage is considered to be one of the adjunctive transmission reduction strategies in Nepal's Malaria Strategic Plan 2014-2025. The main objective of this study was to assess the durability through assessment of community usage, physical integrity, residual bio-efficacy, and chemical retention in LLINs: Interceptor®, Yorkool®, and PermaNet ®2.0 which were used in Nepal during 2009 through 2013.

Methods

Assessments were conducted on random samples (n = 440) of LLINs from the eleven districts representing four ecological zones: Terai plain region (Kailali and Kanchanpur districts), outer Terai fluvial ecosystem (Surkhet, Dang, and Rupandhei districts), inner Terai forest ecosystem (Mahhothari, Dhanusa, and Illam districts), and Hills and river valley (Kavrepalanchock and Sindhupalchok districts). For each LLIN, fabric integrity in terms of proportionate hole index (pHI) and residual bio-efficacy were assessed. However, for chemical retention, a representative sample of 44 nets (15 Yorkool®, 10 Permanet®2.0, and 19 Interceptor®) was evaluated. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics stratified by LLINs brand, districts, and duration of exposure.

Results

On average, duration of use of LLINs was shortest for the Yorkool® samples, followed by PermaNet® 2.0 and Interceptor® with median ages of 8.9 (IQR = 0.4), 23.8 (IQR = 3.2), and 50.1 (IQR = 3.2) months, respectively. Over 80% of field distributed Yorkool® and PermaNet® 2.0 nets were in good condition (pHI< 25) compared to Interceptor® (66%). Bio-efficacy analysis showed that average mortality rates of Interceptor and Yorkool were below World Health Organization (WHO) optimal effectiveness of ≥ 80% compared to 2-year-old PermaNet 2.0 which attained 80%. Chemical retention analysis was consistent with bio-efficacy results.

Conclusion

This study shows that distribution of LLINs is effective for malaria control; however, serviceable life of LLINs should be considered in terms of waning residual bio-efficacy that warrants replacement. As an adjunctive malaria control tool, National Malaria Control Program of Nepal can benefit by renewing the distribution of LLINs in an appropriate time frame in addition to utilizing durable and effective LLINs.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum transmission within a spatial unit on the Colombian Pacific Coast

As malaria control programmes concentrate their efforts towards malaria elimination a better understanding of malaria transmission patterns at fine spatial resolution units becomes necessary. Defining spatial units that consider transmission heterogeneity, human movement and migration will help to set up achievable malaria elimination milestones and guide the creation of efficient operational administrative control units. Using a combination of genetic and epidemiological data we defined a malaria transmission unit as the area contributing 95% of malaria cases diagnosed at the catchment facility located in the town of Guapi in the South Pacific Coast of Colombia. We provide data showing that P. falciparum malaria transmission is heterogeneous in time and space and analysed, using topological data analysis, the spatial connectivity, at the micro epidemiological level, between parasite populations circulating within the unit. To illustrate the necessity to evaluate the efficacy of malaria control measures within the transmission unit in order to increase the efficiency of the malaria control effort, we provide information on the size of the asymptomatic reservoir, the nature of parasite genotypes associated with drug resistance as well as the frequency of the Pfhrp2/3 deletion associated with false negatives when using Rapid Diagnostic Tests.