Diagnosed depression and sociodemographic factors as predictors of mortality in patients with dementia

External Validation of the Charlson Comorbidity Index-based Model for Survival Prediction in Thai Patients Diagnosed with Dementia

BACKGROUND

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is commonly employed for predicting mortality. Nonetheless, its performance has rarely been evaluated in patients with dementia. This study aimed to examine the predictive capability of the CCI-based model for survival prediction in Thai patients diagnosed with dementia.

METHODS

An external validation study was conducted using retrospective data from adults with dementia who had visited the outpatient departments at Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai Hospital between 2006 and 2012. The data obtained from electronic medical records included age, gender, date of dementia diagnosis and death, types of dementia, and comorbidities at the time of dementia diagnosis. The discriminative ability and calibration of the CCI-based model were estimated using Harrell's C Discrimination Index and visualized with calibration plot. As the initial performance did not meet satisfaction, model updating and recalibration were performed.

RESULTS

Of 702 patients, 56.9% were female. The mean age at dementia diagnosis was 75.22 (SD 9.75) year-old. During external validation, Harrell's C-statistic of the CCI-based model was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.61). The model showed poor external calibration. Model updating was subsequently performed. All updated models demonstrated a modest increase in Harrell's C-statistic. Temporal recalibration did not significantly improve the calibration of any of the updated models.

CONCLUSION

The CCI-based model exhibited fair discriminative ability and poor calibration for predicting survival in Thai patients diagnosed with dementia. Despite attempts at model updating, significant improvements were not achieved. Therefore, it is important to consider the incorporation of other influential prognostic factors.

Is Dementia Related to a Longer Wait Time to be Assigned a New Primary Care Provider? An Analysis of the Nova Scotia Need a Family Practice Registry Derived from the PUPPY-Study

Background

Access to Primary Care Providers (PCPs) is limited for many Canadians. "Unattached patients" are persons who do not have a PCP. Older adults living with dementia may face greater challenges seeking attachment. This study investigated whether older adults living with dementia experience differential wait times for PCPs compared to those without a diagnosis of dementia.

Methods

This was an observational descriptive study of the centralized wait-list data from the Nova Scotia (NS) Need a Family Practice Registry (NaFPR). Time on provider wait-list by dementia diagnosis and age were compared. Number of days on the registry across these measures was estimated. Multivariable proportional hazards regression was used to compare hazards of remaining on the registry over time.

Results

Unattached older adults living with dementia were on the NaFPR for less time compared to those without dementia (381.4 vs. 428.8 days, respectively). After adjusting for age, self-reported gender, comorbidity, rurality, income quintiles, and overall deprivation, older adults with dementia had a 1.13-fold (95% CI: 1.04-1.24) increase in the likelihood of leaving the NaFPR. Potential contributors to this small difference could be placement in Long Term Care (LTC) and subsequent facility PCP attachment.

Conclusions

Analysis of the NaFPR exhibited similarly time to PCP attachment despite a diagnosis of dementia. This represented an effective equality model of health care utilized in NS. Future studies should investigate whether an equity model with priority attachment for vulnerable patients would reduce hospitalization and LTC institutionalization.

Ethnicity and survival after a dementia diagnosis: a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data

BACKGROUND

Individuals from minority ethnic groups in the UK are thought to be at higher risk of developing dementia while facing additional barriers to receiving timely care. However, few studies in the UK have examined if there are ethnic disparities in survival once individuals receive a dementia diagnosis.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data of individuals diagnosed with dementia from a large secondary mental healthcare provider in London. Patients from Black African, Black Caribbean, South Asian, White British, and White Irish ethnic backgrounds were followed up for a 10-year period between 01 January 2008 and 31 December 2017. Data were linked to death certificate data from the Office of National Statistics to determine survival from dementia diagnosis. Standardised mortality ratios were calculated to estimate excess deaths in each ethnicity group as compared to the gender- and age-standardised population of England and Wales. We used Cox regression models to compare survival after dementia diagnosis across each ethnicity group.

RESULTS

Mortality was elevated at least twofold across all ethnicity groups with dementia compared to the general population in England and Wales. Risk of death was lower in Black Caribbean, Black African, White Irish, and South Asian groups as compared to the White British population, even after adjusting for age, gender, neighbourhood-level deprivation, indicators of mental and physical comorbidities. Risk of death remained lower after additionally accounting for those who emigrated out of the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

While mortality in dementia is elevated across all ethnic groups as compared to the general population, reasons for longer survival in minority ethnic groups in the UK as compared to the White British group are unclear and merit further exploration. Implications of longer survival, including carer burden and costs, should be considered in policy and planning to ensure adequate support for families and carers of individuals with dementia.

Effect of Comorbidities on Ten-Year Survival in Patients with Dementia

BACKGROUND

There is a verified association between comorbidity and survival in patients with dementia.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the ten-year survival probability of patients with dementia and to identify the impact of comorbidity.

METHODS

The prognostic retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from adults with dementia who had visited the outpatient departments at Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai hospital between 2006 and 2012. Dementia was verified in accordance with standard practice guidelines. Secondary data detailing about patient age, gender, date of dementia diagnosis and death, types of dementia, and comorbidities at the time of dementia diagnosis was obtained from electronic medical records. The association between comorbidity, patients' underlying disease at dementia diagnosis, and overall survival were analyzed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age, gender, types of dementia, and other comorbidities.

RESULTS

Of the 702 patients, 56.9% were female. Alzheimer's disease (39.6%) was the most prevalent type of dementia. Median overall survival was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.5- 6.7). The comorbidities associated with a high risk of mortality included liver disease (aHR 2.70, 95% CI 1.46- 5.00), atrial fibrillation (aHR 2.15, 95% CI 1.29- 3.58), myocardial infarction (aHR 1.55, 95% CI 1.07- 2.26), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (aHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.13- 1.74).

CONCLUSION

Overall survival rate of patients with dementia in Thailand was comparable to previous studies. Several comorbidities were associated with a ten-year survival. The prognosis of patients with dementia may be improved by appropriate care of comorbidities.

Risk factors for in-hospital death in elderly patients over 65 years of age with dementia: A retrospective cross-sectional study

As the population continues to age, dementia is becoming a huge social, economic, and healthcare burden. However, the risk factors for in-hospital death in elderly patients over 65 years of age with dementia are not well understood. Identifying factors that affect their prognosis could help clinicians with scientific decision-making. To examine the risk factors for in-hospital death in elderly patients over 65 years of age with dementia in the Geriatric Department of West China Hospital. In this retrospective, cross-sectional study, we analyzed inpatients aged ≥65 years with dementia between 2010 and 2016 using electronic medical records from the Information Center of West China Hospital. The risk factors for death were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Out of a total of 2986 inpatients with dementia, 3.4% died. Patient deaths were related to digestive diseases, respiratory diseases, circulatory diseases, urinary diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, whereas patient survival was associated with osteoporosis and Parkinson disease. Patients with a mean length of hospital stay of ≥60 days had an increased risk of death (all P <.05). In the multiple logistic regression analysis, age ≥80 years, digestive diseases, respiratory diseases, urinary diseases, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and ≥7 comorbidities were risk factors for death. Mortality in hospitalized older patients with dementia is low, but some risk factors may be easily ignored. These findings could raise awareness among clinicians and caregivers about risk factors in hospitalized older patients, particularly hospitalized elderly patients with multiple comorbidities. Therefore, to reduce mortality, early prevention and management of potential risks are necessary.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Length of Life after Dementia Diagnosis: an 18-Year Follow-up Study of Medicare Beneficiaries

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Associations of depression, sleep disorder with total and cause-specific mortality: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Evidence on the association of depression and sleep disorder with mortality is limited. We aimed to evaluate the relationship of depression and sleep disorder with mortality.

METHODS

A total of 25,978 participants from the National health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES 2005∼2014) were included in the present study. Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the associations of depression and sleep disorder with total and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1,864 deaths occurred among 25,978 participants during a median follow-up of 5.67 years, including 301 deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and 415 deaths from cancer. We observed significant positive relationship between depression and total and CVD mortality, the multiple adjusted hazard rations (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 1.56 (1.31-1.85) and 2.11 (1.36-3.30), respectively. Sleep disorder was only significantly associated with total mortality, and the HR and 95% CI was 1.49 (1.28-1.72). Sleep disorder was associated with total mortality in male (HR=1.64, 95% CI 1.29-2.08), excessive sleep time increased the risk of total mortality in elders (1.31, 1.05-1.63). No joint effect of depression and sleep disorder on total mortality was observed. A dose-response relationship of depression score and sleep time with total mortality was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Depression and sleep disorder are associated with increased risks of total and specific-cause mortality, and differences in sex, age and BMI were observed. More studies should be conducted to examine these relationships and to explore mechanisms.

Differences in survival and mortality in minority ethnic groups with dementia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Although there are disparities in both risk of developing dementia and accessibility of dementia services for certain minority ethnic groups in the United States and United Kingdom, disparities in survival after a dementia diagnosis are less well-studied. Our objective was to systematically review the literature to investigate racial/ethnic differences in survival and mortality in dementia.

METHODS

We searched Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, Global Health and PsycINFO from inception to November 2018 for studies comparing survival or mortality over time in at least two race/ethnicity groups. Studies from any country were included but analysed separately. We used narrative synthesis and random-effects meta-analysis to synthesise findings. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess quality and risk of bias in individual studies.

RESULTS

We identified 22 articles, most from the United States (n = 17), as well as the United Kingdom (n = 3) and the Netherlands (n = 1). In a meta-analysis of US studies, hazard of mortality was lower in Black/African American groups (Pooled Hazard Ratio = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.82-0.91, I²  = 17%, from four studies) and Hispanic/Latino groups (Pooled HR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.50-0.84, I²  = 86%, from four studies) versus comparison groups. However, study quality was mixed, and in particular, quality of reporting of race/ethnicity was inconsistent.

CONCLUSION

Literature indicates that Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino groups may experience lower mortality in dementia versus comparison groups in the United States, but further research, using clearer and more and consistent reporting of race/ethnicity, is necessary to understand what drives these patterns and their implications for policy and practice.

Markers of dementia-related health in primary care electronic health records

OBJECTIVES

Identifying routinely recorded markers of poor health in patients with dementia may help treatment decisions and evaluation of earlier outcomes in research. Our objective was to determine whether a set of credible markers of dementia-related health could be identified from primary care electronic health records (EHR).

METHODS

The study consisted of (i) rapid review of potential measures of dementia-related health used in EHR studies; (ii) consensus exercise to assess feasibility of identifying these markers in UK primary care EHR; (iii) development of UK EHR code lists for markers; (iv) analysis of a regional primary care EHR database to determine further potential markers; (v) consensus exercise to finalise markers and pool into higher domains; (vi) determination of 12-month prevalence of domains in EHR of 2328 patients with dementia compared to matched patients without dementia.

RESULTS

Sixty-three markers were identified and mapped to 13 domains: Care; Home Pressures; Severe Neuropsychiatric; Neuropsychiatric; Cognitive Function; Daily Functioning; Safety; Comorbidity; Symptoms; Diet/Nutrition; Imaging; Increased Multimorbidity; Change in Dementia Drug. Comorbidity was the most prevalent recorded domain in dementia (69%). Home Pressures were the least prevalent domain (1%). Ten domains had a statistically significant higher prevalence in dementia patients, one (Comorbidity) was higher in non-dementia patients, and two (Home Pressures, Diet/Nutrition) showed no association with dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

EHR captures important markers of dementia-related health. Further research should assess if they indicate dementia progression. These markers could provide the basis for identifying individuals at risk of faster progression and outcome measures for use in research.

Electronic Medical Record-Based Case Phenotyping for the Charlson Conditions: Scoping Review

Background

Electronic medical records (EMRs) contain large amounts of rich clinical information. Developing EMR-based case definitions, also known as EMR phenotyping, is an active area of research that has implications for epidemiology, clinical care, and health services research.

Objective

This review aims to describe and assess the present landscape of EMR-based case phenotyping for the Charlson conditions.

Methods

A scoping review of EMR-based algorithms for defining the Charlson comorbidity index conditions was completed. This study covered articles published between January 2000 and April 2020, both inclusive. Embase (Excerpta Medica database) and MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) were searched using keywords developed in the following 3 domains: terms related to EMR, terms related to case finding, and disease-specific terms. The manuscript follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines.

Results

A total of 274 articles representing 299 algorithms were assessed and summarized. Most studies were undertaken in the United States (181/299, 60.5%), followed by the United Kingdom (42/299, 14.0%) and Canada (15/299, 5.0%). These algorithms were mostly developed either in primary care (103/299, 34.4%) or inpatient (168/299, 56.2%) settings. Diabetes, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and rheumatology had the highest number of developed algorithms. Data-driven and clinical rule–based approaches have been identified. EMR-based phenotype and algorithm development reflect the data access allowed by respective health systems, and algorithms vary in their performance.

Conclusions

Recognizing similarities and differences in health systems, data collection strategies, extraction, data release protocols, and existing clinical pathways is critical to algorithm development strategies. Several strategies to assist with phenotype-based case definitions have been proposed.

Indicators of dementia disease progression in primary care: An electronic health record cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The objectives were to assess the feasibility and validity of using markers of dementia-related health as indicators of dementia progression in primary care, by assessing the frequency with which they are recorded and by testing the hypothesis that they are associated with recognised outcomes of dementia. The markers, in 13 domains, were derived previously through literature review, expert consensus, and analysis of regional primary care records.

METHODS

The study population consisted of patients with a recorded dementia diagnosis in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a UK primary care database linked to secondary care records. Incidence of recorded domains in the 36 months after diagnosis was determined. Associations of recording of domains with future hospital admission, palliative care, and mortality were derived.

RESULTS

There were 30,463 people with diagnosed dementia. Incidence of domains ranged from 469/1000 person-years (Increased Multimorbidity) to 11/1000 (Home Pressures). An increasing number of domains in which a new marker was recorded in the first year after diagnosis was associated with hospital admission (hazard ratio for ≥4 domains vs. no domains = 1.24; 95% confidence interval = 1.15-1.33), palliative care (1.87; 1.62-2.15), and mortality (1.57; 1.47-1.67). Individual domains were associated with outcomes with varying strengths of association.

CONCLUSIONS

Feasibility and validity of potential indicators of progression of dementia derived from primary care records are supported by their frequency of recording and associations with recognised outcomes. Further research should assess whether these markers can help identify patients with poorer prognosis to improve outcomes through stratified care and targeted support.

Depression but not non-persistence to antidiabetic drugs is associated with mortality in type 2 diabetes: A nested case-control study

AIMS

To measure the effect of depression on mortality of individuals newly treated with antidiabetic drugs, accounting for non-persistence to treatment.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study within a cohort of newly treated individuals with diabetes. Using Quebec administrative data, we identified all-cause, diabetes-related, cardiovascular-related and major cardiovascular event deaths during a maximum follow-up of eight years. Each case was matched with up to 10 controls by age, sex, follow-up, and comorbidity index. We used conditional logistic regressions to estimate the effect of depression on mortality, adjusting for non-persistence to antidiabetic drug treatment, and other variables.

RESULTS

We retrieved 13,558 deaths, of which 3,652 were related to cardiovascular diseases, 2,112 to major cardiovascular events, and 311 to diabetes. Depression was associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular-related deaths, with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 1.32 (95% CI: 1.21-1.45) to 1.72 (95% CI: 1.57-1.88) depending on the model, but not with diabetes-related mortality.

CONCLUSION

Depression is independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular-related mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes, even when adjusting for non-persistence to antidiabetic drug treatment. Identifying risk factors for depression and implementing a screening and proper treatment for depression may help reducing mortality.

Predictors of mortality in Māori, Pacific Island, and European patients diagnosed with dementia at a New Zealand Memory Service

BACKGROUND

As the economic impact of dementia on health and social care increases, governments require disease-specific epidemiological data that will help inform spending and policy decisions. The aim of this study is to examine predictors of mortality in dementia in consecutive referrals to a New Zealand (NZ) memory service that includes Māori, Pacific Islander, and NZ European patients.

METHODS

Date of birth, sex, ethnicity, living situation, cognitive function, dementia subtype, dementia severity, physical comorbidity, and medication data were collected from electronic health records. The resulting data set was linked to administrative data on mortality and last hospital contact dates to allow time-dependent survival analyses.

RESULTS

The risk of death in people with dementia was increased by age (adjusted HR per year 1.08, 95%CI:1.05-1.12) and lower cognitive score at baseline (adjusted HR for severe impairment:2.54, 95% CI:1.25-5.16), and was reduced by cholinesterase inhibitors (adjusted HR:0.54, 95% CI:0.34-0.88). Compared to NZ Europeans (HR:1.19, 95% CI:0.63-2.25), antipsychotics increased the risk of death three-fold in Māori (adjusted HR:3.62, 95% CI:0.79-16.7) and Pacific Islanders (adjusted HR:2.54, 95%CI:1.10-5.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Further research is required to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the survival rates in Māori and Pacific Islanders living with dementia in NZ,and their increased risk of death if antipsychotics are used.

CSF level of β-amyloid peptide predicts mortality in Alzheimer's disease

Objective

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the sixth leading cause of death, with an average survival estimated between 5 and 10 years after diagnosis. Despite recent advances in diagnostic criteria of AD, few studies have used biomarker-based diagnostics to determine the prognostic factors of AD. We investigate predictors of death and institutionalization in a population of AD patients with high probability of AD physiopathology process assessed by positivity of three CSF biomarkers.

Methods

Three hundred twenty-one AD patients with abnormal values for CSF beta-amyloid peptide (Aβ42), tau, and phosphorylated tau levels were recruited from a memory clinic-based registry between 2008 and 2017 (Lariboisiere hospital, Paris, France) and followed during a median period of 3.9 years. We used multivariable Cox models to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of death and institutionalization for baseline clinical data, genotype of the apolipoprotein E (APOE), and levels of CSF biomarkers.

Results

A total of 71 (22%) patients were institutionalized and 57 (18%) died during the follow-up. Greater age, male sex, lower MMSE score, and lower CSF Aβ42 level were associated with an increased risk of mortality. One standard deviation lower CSF Aβ42 (135 pg/mL) was associated with a 89% increased risk of death (95% CI = 1.25–2.86; p = 0.002). This association was not modified by age, sex, education, APOE ε4, and disease severity. There was no evidence of an association of tau CSF biomarkers with mortality. None of the CSF biomarkers were associated with institutionalization.

Conclusions

Lower CSF Aβ42 is a strong prognostic marker of mortality in AD patients, independently of age or severity of the disease. Whether drugs targeting beta-amyloid peptide could have an effect on mortality of AD patients should be investigated in future clinical trials.