The measurement of daily surge and its relevance to disaster preparedness

The Daily Patterns of Emergency Medical Events

This study examines population-level daily patterns of time-stamped emergency medical service (EMS) dispatches to establish their situational predictability. Using visualization, sinusoidal regression, and statistical tests to compare empirical cumulative distributions, we analyzed 311,848,450 emergency medical call records from the US National Emergency Medical Services Information System (NEMSIS) for years 2010 through 2022. The analysis revealed a robust daily pattern in the hourly distribution of distress calls across 33 major categories of medical emergency dispatch types. Sinusoidal regression coefficients for all types were statistically significant, mostly at the p < 0.0001 level. The coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) ranged from 0.84 and 0.99 for all models, with most falling in the 0.94 to 0.99 range. The common sinusoidal pattern, peaking in mid-afternoon, demonstrates that all major categories of medical emergency dispatch types appear to be influenced by an underlying daily rhythm that is aligned with daylight hours and common sleep/wake cycles. A comparison of results with previous landmark studies revealed new and contrasting EMS patterns for several long-established peak occurrence hours-specifically for chest pain, heart problems, stroke, convulsions and seizures, and sudden cardiac arrest/death. Upon closer examination, we also found that heart attacks, diagnosed by paramedics in the field via 12-lead cardiac monitoring, followed the identified common daily pattern of a mid-afternoon peak, departing from prior generally accepted morning tendencies. Extended analysis revealed that the normative pattern prevailed across the NEMSIS data when reorganized to consider monthly, seasonal, daylight-savings versus civil time, and pre-/post-COVID-19 periods. The predictable daily EMS patterns provide impetus for more research that links daily variation with causal risk and protective factors. Our methods are straightforward and presented with detail to provide accessible and replicable implementation for researchers and practitioners.

Incidence management system of the healthcare institutions for disaster management in Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

Incident management systems and disaster planning processes facilitate maximal use of available resources. Evaluation of the Incident Command System (ICS) is one of the top five key areas of research priority in the field of surge. The study was aimed at assessing the disaster preparedness and ICS of the public healthcare institutions for the disaster management in a disaster-prone district of Sri Lanka.

METHODS

A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among all public sector healthcare institutions (n = 74), including curative-healthcare institutions (n = 46) which have inward-care facilities for patient care and preventive healthcare institutions (n = 28) in Kurunegala district, Sri Lanka from May-September 2019 using a validated interviewer administered questionnaire which was based on 'CO-S-TR Model' for ICS assessment including 'Clear need for increased capacity (≤25%), Basic level (26 - 50%), Moderate level (51 - 75%) and High level (>75%)'.

RESULTS

Focal points for disaster management were nominated by the majority of the curative sector (n = 33; 76.7%) and preventive sector (n = 19; 73.1%) healthcare institutions. A written disaster preparedness and response plans were available in 72% (n= 31) curative sector and 76% (n= 19) preventive sector institutions. The higher proportion of the curative sector institutions had moderate level capacity in the area of providing treatment, and basic level capacities were in the areas of 'staff mobilization, coordination of activities, supplying of special needs, triage of cases and transportation'. There is a clear need for improvement in the areas of communication commanding, management of controlling the incidence and tracking of the cases in the curative sector. The majority of the preventive sector institutions had moderate level capacity in commanding, control, coordination and tracking of cases. The basic level capacity in the areas of staff mobilization, stuff management and triage of cases. There is a clear need for improvement in the areas of communication in preventive sector. Of the public sector healthcare institutions, the higher proportion of the preventive sector (n = 20; 76.9%) and curative sector (n = 29; 67.4%) had basic level overall surge capacity of ICS for disaster management.

CONCLUSION

Coordination, communication, commanding, management of controlling the incidence and tracking of cases following outbreaks need to be improved and capacity development programmes could implement to develop the preparedness for future disasters.

Effect of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19), a Nationwide Mass Casualty Disaster on Intensive Care Units: Clinical Outcomes and Associated Cost-of-Care

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in millions of deaths worldwide and is considered a significant mass-casualty disaster (MCD). The surge of patients and scarcity of resources negatively impacted hospitals, patients and medical practice. We hypothesized ICUs during this MCD had a higher acuity of illness, and subsequently had increased lengths of stay (LOS), complication rates, death rates and costs of care. The purpose of this study was to investigate those outcomes.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, retrospective study that compared intensive care admissions in 2020 to those in 2019 to evaluate patient outcomes and cost of care. Data were obtained from the Vizient Clinical Data Base/Resource Manager (Vizient Inc., Irvine, Texas, USA).

RESULTS

Data included the number of ICU admissions, patient outcomes, case mix index and summary of cost reports. Quality outcomes were also collected, and a total of 1304981 patients from 333 hospitals were included. For all medical centers, there was a significant increase in LOS index, ICU LOS, complication rate, case mix index, total cost, and direct cost index.

CONCLUSION

The MCD caused by COVID-19 was associated with increased adverse outcomes and cost-of-care for ICU patients.

Evaluating Nursing Staff Perception of Hospital Readiness for Continuity of Essential Health Care Services and Surge Capacity in Line With COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate nursing staff' perception of hospital readiness for continuity of essential health care services and surge capacity in line with COVID-19.

METHODS

A total of 300 nurses were recruited from one hospital in Saudi Arabia. They completed self-administered, online questionnaires. The questionnaire assessed participants' socio-demographic data and their perceptions regarding hospital readiness for continuity of essential health care services and surge capacity in line with COVID-19.

RESULTS

The findings revealed that nursing staff had a moderate mean score regarding hospital readiness for continuity of health care services (3.89 ± 0.61) and an average mean value regarding surge capacity of 3.83 ± 0.63. Also, the value of R2 of surge capacity in healthcare can predict 82.9% of the variance in hospital readiness for continuity of health care services in terms of surge capacity.

CONCLUSION

Hospital administrators could propose hospital regulations and protocols for the management of confirmed and suspected COVID-19 patients in addition to designing a continuing education program for health professionals at all levels related to prevention, control, and management of COVID-19 suspected and confirmed patients.

A Global Survey of Emergency Department Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction

Emergency departments (ED) globally are addressing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with varying degrees of success. We leveraged the 17-country, Emergency Medicine Education & Research by Global Experts (EMERGE) network and non-EMERGE ED contacts to understand ED emergency preparedness and practices globally when combating the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We electronically surveyed EMERGE and non-EMERGE EDs from April 3–June 1, 2020 on ED capacity, pandemic preparedness plans, triage methods, staffing, supplies, and communication practices. The survey was available in English, Mandarin Chinese, and Spanish to optimize participation. We analyzed survey responses using descriptive statistics.

Results

74/129 (57%) EDs from 28 countries in all six World Health Organization global regions responded. Most EDs were in Asia (49%), followed by North America (28%), and Europe (14%). Nearly all EDs (97%) developed and implemented protocols for screening, testing, and treating patients with suspected COVID-19 infections. Sixty percent responded that provider staffing/back-up plans were ineffective. Many sites (47/74, 64%) reported staff missing work due to possible illness with the highest provider proportion of COVID-19 exposures and infections among nurses.

Conclusion

Despite having disaster plans in place, ED pandemic preparedness and response continue to be a challenge. Global emergency research networks are vital for generating and disseminating large-scale event data, which is particularly important during a pandemic.

Are Smaller Emergency Departments More Prone to Volume Variability?

Introduction: Daily patient volume in emergency departments (ED) varies considerably between days and sites. Although studies have attempted to define “high-volume” days, no standard definition exists. Furthermore, it is not clear whether the frequency of high-volume days, by any definition, is related to the size of an ED. We aimed to determine the correlation between ED size and the frequency of high-volume days for various volume thresholds, and to develop a measure to identify high-volume days. Methods: We queried retrospective patient arrival data including 1,682,374 patient visits from 32 EDs in 12 states between July 1, 2018–June 30, 2019 and developed linear regression models to determine the correlation between ED size and volume variability. In addition, we performed a regression analysis and applied the Pearson correlation test to investigate the significance of median daily volumes with respect to the percent of days that crossed four volume thresholds ranging from 5–20% (in 5% increments) greater than each site’s median daily volume. Results: We found a strong negative correlation between ED median daily volume and volume variability (R2 = 81.0%; P < 0.0001). In addition, the four regression models for the percent of days exceeding specified thresholds greater than their daily median volumes had R2 values of 49.4%, 61.2%, 70.0%, and 71.8%, respectively, all with P < 0.0001. Conclusion: We sought to determine whether smaller EDs experience high-volume days more frequently than larger EDs. We found that high-volume days, when defined as days with a count of arrivals at or above certain median-based thresholds, are significantly more likely to occur in lower-volume EDs than in higher-volume EDs. To the extent that EDs allocate resources and plan to staff based on median volumes, these results suggest that smaller EDs are more likely to experience unpredictable, volume-based staffing challenges and operational costs. Given the lack of a standard measure to define a high-volume day in an ED, we recommend 10% above the median daily volume as a metric, for its relevance, generalizability across a broad range of EDs, and computational simplicity.

The Crosscutting Benefits of Hospital Emergency Preparedness Investments to Daily Operations: A Hospital Senior Leadership Perspective

Hospitals are an integral part of community resiliency during and after a disaster or emergency event. In addition to community-level planning through healthcare coalitions, hospitals are required to test and update emergency plans to comply with accreditation standards at their own expense. Justifying costs related to investments in emergency preparedness can be a barrier, as these events are relatively rare. Little is known about the crosscutting benefits of investments in daily operations including patient care. This study investigated whether hospital investments in emergency preparedness had a perceived impact on daily operations from a senior leadership perspective. Using a cross-sectional study design, a 39-item survey was emailed and mailed to chief executive officers of all 105 Nebraska hospitals. Most respondents indicated that drills and exercises, staff training, and updating emergency plans had a positive impact on daily operations. A relatively small proportion (≤11%) of respondents indicated that costs of buying decontamination equipment, personal protective equipment, and costs associated with staff training and drills/exercises had a negative impact on daily operations. No differences were noted between rural and urban locations or between hospitals that allocate funds in the budget versus those that do not. The majority of hospitals in our study are likely to continue to invest over the next 3 years, inferring a sincere commitment by hospital senior leadership to continue to invest in emergency preparedness. Future research using longitudinal design and objective measures of investments and daily benefits is needed to support a business case for hospital preparedness.

Development of a Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index using a national hospital survey

To generate a Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index that can be used to evaluate hospitals across the United States in regard to their capacity to handle patient surges during mass casualty events. Data from the American Hospital Association’s annual survey, conducted from 2005 to 2014. Our sample comprised 6239 hospitals across all 50 states, with an annual average of 5769 admissions. An extensive review of the American Hospital Association survey was conducted and relevant variables applicable to hospital inpatient services were extracted. Subject matter experts then categorized these items according to the following subdomains of the “Science of Surge” construct: staff, supplies, space, and system. The variables within these categories were then analyzed through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, concluding with the evaluation of internal reliability. Based on the combined results, we generated individual (by hospital) scores for each of the four metrics and an overall score. The exploratory factor analysis indicated a clustering of variables consistent with the “Science of Surge” subdomains, and this finding was in agreement with the statistics generated through the confirmatory factor analysis. We also found high internal reliability coefficients, with Cronbach’s alpha values for all constructs exceeding 0.9. A novel Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index linked to hospital metrics has been developed to assess a health care facility’s capacity to manage patients from mass casualty events. This index could be used by hospitals and emergency management planners to assess a facility’s readiness to provide care during disasters.

Parallel Simulation Decision-Making Method for a Response to Unconventional Public Health Emergencies Based on the Scenario–Response Paradigm and Discrete Event System Theory

Given the non-repeatability, complexity, and unpredictability of unconventional public health emergencies, building accurate models and making effective response decisions based only on traditional prediction–response decision-making methods are difficult. To solve this problem, under the scenario–response paradigm and theories on parallel emergency management and discrete event system (DES), the parallel simulation decision-making framework (PSDF), which includes the methods of abstract modeling, simulation operation, decision-making optimization, and parallel control, is proposed for unconventional public health emergency response processes. Furthermore, with the example of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) response process, the evolutionary scenarios that include infected patients and diagnostic processes are transformed into simulation processes. Then, the validity and operability of the DES–PSDF method proposed in this paper are verified by the results of a simulation experiment. The results demonstrated that, in the case of insufficient prior knowledge, effective parallel simulation models can be constructed and improved dynamically by multi-stage parallel controlling. Public health system bottlenecks and relevant effective response solutions can also be obtained by iterative simulation and optimizing decisions. To meet the urgent requirements of emergency response, the DES–PSDF method introduces a new response decision-making concept for unconventional public health emergencies.

Bridging complexity theory and resilience to develop surge capacity in health systems

Purpose Health systems are periodically confronted by crises - think of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, H1N1, and Ebola - during which they are called upon to manage exceptional situations without interrupting essential services to the population. The ability to accomplish this dual mandate is at the heart of resilience strategies, which in healthcare systems involve developing surge capacity to manage a sudden influx of patients. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper relates insights from resilience research to the four "S" of surge capacity (staff, stuff, structures and systems) and proposes a framework based on complexity theory to better understand and assess resilience factors that enable the development of surge capacity in complex health systems. Findings Detailed and dynamic complexities manifest in different challenges during a crisis. Resilience factors are classified according to these types of complexity and along their temporal dimensions: proactive factors that improve preparedness to confront both usual and exceptional requirements, and passive factors that enable response to unexpected demands as they arise during a crisis. The framework is completed by further categorizing resilience factors according to their stabilizing or destabilizing impact, drawing on feedback processes described in complexity theory. Favorable order resilience factors create consistency and act as stabilizing forces in systems, while favorable disorder factors such as diversity and complementarity act as destabilizing forces. Originality/value The framework suggests a balanced and innovative process to integrate these factors in a pragmatic approach built around the fours "S" of surge capacity to increase health system resilience.

Impact of Superstorm Sandy on Medicare Patients' Utilization of Hospitals and Emergency Departments

INTRODUCTION

National health security requires that healthcare facilities be prepared to provide rapid, effective emergency and trauma care to all patients affected by a catastrophic event. We sought to quantify changes in healthcare utilization patterns for an at-risk Medicare population before, during, and after Superstorm Sandy's 2012 landfall in New Jersey (NJ).

METHODS

This study is a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries impacted by Superstorm Sandy. We compared hospital emergency department (ED) and healthcare facility inpatient utilization in the weeks before and after Superstorm Sandy landfall using a 20% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries continuously enrolled in 2011 and 2012 (N=224,116). Outcome measures were pre-storm discharges (or transfers), average length of stay, service intensity weight, and post-storm ED visits resulting in either discharge or hospital admission.

RESULTS

In the pre-storm week, hospital transfers from skilled nursing facilities (SNF) increased by 39% and inpatient discharges had a 0.3 day decreased mean length of stay compared to the prior year. In the post-storm week, ED visits increased by 14% statewide; of these additional "surge" patients, 20% were admitted to the hospital. The increase in ED demand was more than double the statewide average in the most highly impacted coastal regions (35% versus 14%).

CONCLUSION

Superstorm Sandy impacted both pre- and post-storm patient movement in New Jersey; post-landfall ED surge was associated with overall storm impact, which was greatest in coastal counties. A significant increase in the number and severity of pre-storm transfer patients, in particular from SNF, as well as in post-storm ED visits and inpatient admissions, draws attention to the importance of collaborative regional approaches to healthcare in large-scale events.

Price A, Polverino F. Evaluation of factors and approaches affecting emergency department space planning

Purpose

– This paper aims to evaluate emergency department (ED) design space planning approaches and draw lessons for developing more resilient and integrated ED guidelines. Two key objectives have been set; these include: exploring potential factors affecting the ED performance, and investigate how ED space planning is addressed internationally through the evaluation of international case studies and design guidelines.

Design/methodology/approach

– A robust research method has been adopted including comprehensive literature review in addition to 76 case studies from Italy and the USA.

Findings

– Findings show that the important factors in defining ED space requirements are attendance variability, vulnerable groups and mass casualty events. The study concludes that current design guidelines and approaches need to be updated to meet with the current and future demand by taking into account design performance: effectiveness, efficiency and resilience, to avoid underestimating ED space; and that the US EDs are in a better position, than Italian EDs, to increase capacity when needed.

Originality/value

– The contribution of this study is in providing a tangible “understanding” of factors influencing ED design and prepares a firm ground to develop more resilient and integrated design guidelines, able to meet current, exceptional and long-term needs of EDs. The study also shows that research can provide a valuable contribution to improve ED design which needs to feed more in practice to improve design process and guidelines.

Traditional measures of hospital utilization may not accurately reflect dynamic patient demand: findings from a children's hospital

OBJECTIVES

Hospital crowding adversely affects access to emergent and elective care, quality and safety, patient and staff satisfaction, and trainee education. Reliable and valid measurements are crucial to operational planning and improvement, but traditional measures of hospital utilization may not accurately describe dynamic demand at hospitals. The goal of this study was to determine how effectively traditional measures express demand for hospital services and to describe the dynamic nature of patient flow in children's hospitals compared with alternative measures.

METHODS

This was a retrospective administrative data review conducted at an urban, tertiary care children's hospital. A total of 28045 inpatients (22310 from fiscal year 2008 and 5735 from 2 months in the fall of 2009 during the H1N1 influenza surge [October 16, 2009-November 18, 2009]) were reviewed. Admission-discharge-transfer data were abstracted from a total of 14 months (1 fiscal year and a separate 2 months including an influenza surge). Hourly hospital census and occupancy were determined. Measures of mean and median length of stay (LOS) were compared. Turnover was calculated by summing admissions, discharges, and interunit transfers. Coefficient of variation (SD/mean) was used to describe variation.

RESULTS

Midnight occupancy was generally closer to minimum occupancy than peak. Peak was usually between 10 AM and 12 PM and was a mean of 40/% points higher than midnight (but as large as 13% points). Median LOS was 58% shorter than average LOS. There was a high level of turnover, and patient-days did not express the wide variation in how demand was generated by day of week.

CONCLUSIONS

Traditional metrics for hospital utilization do not accurately express the true extent and dynamic nature of patient flow and inpatient demand at a children's hospital. Hospitals and government regulatory agencies should consider additional means of measuring utilization to accurately determine demand, including its variation, and thus assist in budgeting, staffing, and capacity planning.

Critical resources for hospital surge capacity: an expert consensus panel

Background: Hospital surge capacity (HSC) is dependent on the ability to increase or conserve resources. The hospital surge model put forth by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) estimates the resources needed by hospitals to treat casualties resulting from 13 national planning scenarios. However, emergency planners need to know which hospital resource are most critical in order to develop a more accurate plan for HSC in the event of a disaster. Objective: To identify critical hospital resources required in four specific catastrophic scenarios; namely, pandemic influenza, radiation, explosive, and nerve gas. Methods: We convened an expert consensus panel comprised of 23 participants representing health providers (i.e., nurses and physicians), administrators, emergency planners, and specialists. Four disaster scenarios were examined by the panel. Participants were divided into 4 groups of five or six members, each of which were assigned two of four scenarios. They were asked to consider 132 hospital patient care resources- extracted from the AHRQ's hospital surge model- in order to identify the ones that would be critical in their opinion to patient care. The definition for a critical hospital resource was the following: absence of the resource is likely to have a major impact on patient outcomes, i.e., high likelihood of untoward event, possibly death. For items with any disagreement in ranking, we conducted a facilitated discussion (modified Delphi technique) until consensus was reached, which was defined as more than 50% agreement. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) were calculated for each scenario, and across all scenarios as a measure of participant agreement on critical resources. For the critical resources common to all scenarios, Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to measure the distribution of scores across all scenarios. Results: Of the 132 hospital resources, 25 were considered critical for all four scenarios by more than 50% of the participants. The number of hospital resources considered to be critical by consensus varied from one scenario to another; 58 for the pandemic influenza scenario, 51 for radiation exposure, 41 for explosives, and 35 for nerve gas scenario. Intravenous crystalloid solution was the only resource ranked by all participants as critical across all scenarios. The agreement in ranking was strong in nerve agent and pandemic influenza (ICC= 0.7 in both), and moderate in explosives (ICC= 0.6) and radiation (ICC= 0.5). Conclusion: In four disaster scenarios, namely, radiation, pandemic influenza, explosives, and nerve gas scenarios; supply of as few as 25 common resources may be considered critical to hospital surge capacity. The absence of any these resources may compromise patient care. More studies are needed to identify critical hospital resources in other disaster scenarios.

Refining Surge Capacity: Conventional, Contingency, and Crisis Capacity

Health care facility surge capacity has received significant planning attention recently, but there is no commonly accepted framework for detailed, phased surge capacity categorization and implementation. This article proposes a taxonomy within surge capacity of conventional capacity (implemented in major mass casualty incidents and representing care as usually provided at the institution), contingency capacity (using adaptations to medical care spaces, staffing constraints, and supply shortages without significant impact on delivered medical care), and crisis capacity (implemented in catastrophic situations with a significant impact on standard of care). Suggested measurements used to gauge a quantifiable component of surge capacity and adaptive strategies for staff and supply challenges are proposed. The use of refined definitions of surge capacity as it relates to space, staffing, and supply concerns during a mass casualty incident may aid phased implementation of surge capacity plans at health care facilities and enhance the consistency of terminology and data collection between facilities and regions. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3(Suppl 1):S59–S67)

Health systems' "surge capacity": state of the art and priorities for future research

CONTEXT

Over the past decade, a number of high-impact natural hazard events, together with the increased recognition of pandemic risks, have intensified interest in health systems' ability to prepare for, and cope with, "surges" (sudden large-scale escalations) in treatment needs. In this article, we identify key concepts and components associated with this emerging research theme. We consider the requirements for a standardized conceptual framework for future research capable of informing policy to reduce the morbidity and mortality impacts of such incidents. Here our objective is to appraise the consistency and utility of existing conceptualizations of health systems' surge capacity and their components, with a view to standardizing concepts and measurements to enable future research to generate a cumulative knowledge base for policy and practice.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature on concepts of health systems' surge capacity, with a narrative summary of key concepts relevant to public health.

FINDINGS

The academic literature on surge capacity demonstrates considerable variation in its conceptualization, terms, definitions, and applications. This, together with an absence of detailed and comparable data, has hampered efforts to develop standardized conceptual models, measurements, and metrics. Some degree of consensus is evident for the components of surge capacity, but more work is needed to integrate them. The overwhelming concentration in the United States complicates the generalizability of existing approaches and findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The concept of surge capacity is a useful addition to the study of health systems' disaster and/or pandemic planning, mitigation, and response, and it has far-reaching policy implications. Even though research in this area has grown quickly, it has yet to fulfill its potential to generate knowledge to inform policy. Work is needed to generate robust conceptual and analytical frameworks, along with innovations in data collection and methodological approaches that enhance health systems' readiness for, and response to, unpredictable high-consequence surges in demand.

Utstein-style template for uniform data reporting of acute medical response in disasters

BACKGROUND

In 2003, the Task Force on Quality Control of Disaster Management (WADEM) published guidelines for evaluation and research on health disaster management and recommended the development of a uniform data reporting tool. Standardized and complete reporting of data related to disaster medical response activities will facilitate the interpretation of results, comparisons between medical response systems and quality improvement in the management of disaster victims.

METHODS

Over a two-year period, a group of 16 experts in the fields of research, education, ethics and operational aspects of disaster medical management from 8 countries carried out a consensus process based on a modified Delphi method and Utstein-style technique.

RESULTS

The EMDM Academy Consensus Group produced an Utstein-style template for uniform data reporting of acute disaster medical response, including 15 data elements with indicators, that can be used for both research and quality improvement.

CONCLUSION

It is anticipated that the Utstein-style template will enable better and more accurate completion of reports on disaster medical response and contribute to further scientific evidence and knowledge related to disaster medical management in order to optimize medical response system interventions and to improve outcomes of disaster victims.

Load Balancing at Emergency Departments using 'Crowdinforming'

Background:

Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding is an important healthcare issue facing increasing public and regulatory scrutiny in Canada and around the world. Many approaches to alleviate excessive waiting times and lengths of stay have been studied. In theory, optimal ED patient flow may be assisted via balancing patient loads between EDs (in essence spreading patients more evenly throughout this system). This investigation utilizes simulation to explore “Crowdinforming” as a basis for a process control strategy aimed to balance patient loads between six EDs within a mid-sized Canadian city.

Methods:

Anonymous patient visit data comprising 120,000 ED patient visits over six months to six ED facilities were obtained from the region’s Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) to (1) determine trends in ED visits and interactions between parameters; (2) to develop a process control strategy integrating crowdinforming; and, (3) apply and evaluate the model in a simulated environment to explore the potential impact on patient self-redirection and load balancing between EDs.

Results:

As in reality, the data available and subsequent model demonstrated that there are many factors that impact ED patient flow. Initial results suggest that for this particular data set used, ED arrival rates were the most useful metric for ED ‘busyness’ in a process control strategy, and that Emergency Department performance may benefit from load balancing efforts.

Conclusions:

The simulation supports the use of crowdinforming as a potential tool when used in a process control strategy to balance the patient loads between EDs. The work also revealed that the value of several parameters intuitively expected to be meaningful metrics of ED ‘busyness’ was not evident, highlighting the importance of finding parameters meaningful within one’s particular data set. The information provided in the crowdinforming model is already available in a local context at some ED sites. The extension to a wider dissemination of information via an Internet web service accessible by smart phones is readily achievable and not a technological obstacle. Similarly, the system could be extended to help direct patients by including future estimates or predictions in the crowdinformed data. The contribution of the simulation is to allow for effective policy evaluation to better inform the public of ED ‘busyness’ as part of their decision making process in attending an emergency department. In effect, this is a means of providing additional decision support insights garnered from a simulation, prior to a real world implementation.

A survey of emergency department 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) surge preparedness--Atlanta, Georgia, July-October 2009

During August through September 2009, a surge in emergency department (ED) visits for 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) illness occurred in Georgia, particularly among children. To understand surge preparedness and capacity, we obtained influenza-like illness (ILI) ED visit data from the Georgia State Electronic Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (SendSS) and conducted a retrospective, Internet-based survey among all 26 metro Atlanta ED managers with reference to the period 1 July-1 October 2009. SendSS detected a marked and progressive increase in mean monthly ILI visits from 1 July-1 October 2009, which more than tripled (from 399 to 2196) for the 2 participating EDs that cared for pediatric patients during this time. ED managers reported patient volume surges, resulting in space and supply limitations, especially at pediatric EDs. Most (92%) of the facilities had current pandemic influenza plans. Pandemic planning can help to ensure preparedness for natural and man-made disasters and for future influenza pandemics.

Hospital nurse staffing and public health emergency preparedness: implications for policy

Hospital restructuring policies and an impending nursing workforce shortage have threatened the nation's emergency preparedness. Current emergency response plans rely on sources of nurses that are limited and overestimated. A national investment in nursing education and workforce infrastructure, as well as incentives for hospitals to efficiently maximize nurse staffing, are needed to ensure emergency preparedness in the United States. This review highlights the challenges of maintaining hospital nursing surge capacity and policy implications of a nursing shortage.

[Organization of clinical emergency units. Mission and environmental factors determine the organizational concept]

AIM

Mission and organization of emergency units were analysed to understand the underlying principles and concepts.

METHODS

The recent literature (2000-2007) on organizational structures and functional concepts of clinical emergency units was reviewed. An organizational portfolio based on the criteria specialization (presence of medical specialists on the emergency unit) and integration (integration of the emergency unit into the hospital structure) was established. The resulting organizational archetypes were comparatively assessed based on established efficiency criteria (efficiency of resource utilization, process efficiency, market efficiency).

RESULTS

Clinical emergency units differ with regard to autonomy (within the hospital structure), range of services and service depth (horizontal and vertical integration). The "specialization"-"integration"-portfolio enabled the definition of typical organizational patterns (so-called archetypes): profit centres primarily driven by economic objectives, service centres operating on the basis of agreements with the hospital board, functional clinical units integrated into medical specialty units (e.g., surgery, gynaecology) and modular organizations characterized by small emergency teams that would call specialists immediately after triage and initial diagnostic.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no "one fits all" concept for the organization of clinical emergency units. Instead, a number of well characterized organizational concepts are available enabling a rational choice based on a hospital's mission and demand.