Laparotomy versus no laparotomy in the management of early-stage, favorable-prognosis Hodgkin's disease: a decision analysis

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Brentuximab Vedotin With Chemotherapy in Newly Diagnosed Stage III and IV Hodgkin Lymphoma

PURPOSE

In a recent randomized, open-label trial (ECHELON-1), brentuximab vedotin (BV) combined with doxorubicin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (AVD+BV) decreased the risk of progression in adults diagnosed with stage III or IV Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) compared with standard bleomycin-containing chemotherapy (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine [ABVD]). However, the cost effectiveness of incorporating BV (US$6,970 per 50-mg vial) into the first-line setting is unknown.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We constructed a Markov decision-analytic model to measure the costs and clinical outcomes for AVD+BV compared with ABVD as first-line therapy in a cohort of patients with stage III or IV HL. Transition probabilities were estimated from ECHELON-1 by fitting parametric survival distributions. Lifetime direct health care costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for AVD+BV compared with ABVD from a US payer perspective. Our model was also used to estimate BV price reductions that would achieve more favorable cost effectiveness under indication-specific pricing.

RESULTS

AVD+BV was associated with an improvement of 0.56 QALYs compared with treatment with standard ABVD. However, incorporating BV into first-line therapy led to significantly higher lifetime health care costs ($361,137 v $184,291), causing the ICER for AVD+BV to be $317,254 per QALY. If indication-specific pricing were implemented, acquisition costs for BV used in the first-line setting would need to be reduced by 56% to 73% for ICERs of $150,000 to $100,000 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Substituting BV for bleomycin during first-line therapy for stage III or IV HL is unlikely to be cost effective under current drug pricing. Should indication-specific pricing be implemented, significant price reductions for BV used in the first-line setting would be needed to reduce ICERs to more widely acceptable values.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in secondary prophylaxis for advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma treated with ABVD chemotherapy: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) is commonly administered to patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) with neutropenia. We constructed a decision-analytic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of secondary prophylaxis with G-CSF to a strategy of 'no G-CSF' in response to severe neutropenia for adults with advanced-stage HL treated with ABVD. A Canadian public health payer's perspective was considered and costs were presented in 2013 Canadian dollars. The quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) attained with the G-CSF and 'no G-CSF' strategies were 1.403 and 1.416, respectively. Costs for the strategies with and without G-CSF were $38,971 and $33,982, respectively. In the base case analysis, the 'no G-CSF' strategy was associated with cost savings and improved QALYs; therefore, 'no G-CSF' was the dominant approach. For patients with severe neutropenia during ABVD chemotherapy for advanced-stage HL, a strategy without G-CSF support is associated with improved quality-adjusted outcomes, cost savings, and is the preferred approach.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor as secondary prophylaxis of febrile neutropenia in the management of advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma treated with adriamycin, bleomycin, vinblastine and dacarbazine chemotherapy: a decision analysis

Current practice guidelines are unclear regarding the role of secondary prophylaxis of febrile neutropenia in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma despite several small retrospective studies that demonstrate the omission of growth factors to be a safe and economic practice. We used a decision-analytic model to compare secondary prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) to no G-CSF with the onset of severe neutropenia for a hypothetical cohort of patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma treated with adriamycin, bleomycin, vinblastine and dacarbazine (ABVD). There was a net benefit of 0.017 years and 0.037 quality-adjusted life years for no G-CSF use in severe neutropenia. On microsimulation (10 000 trials), 96% of the simulations showed that the no G-CSF strategy is preferred to the use of G-CSF. This finding was robust across a wide range of sensitivity analyses. Our analysis suggests that G-CSF not be used as secondary prophylaxis of febrile neutropenia in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma.

A Decision analysis to determine the appropriate treatment for low-risk myelodysplastic syndromes

BACKGROUND

The myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are divided into low-risk and high-risk diseases. Predictive models for response to growth factors (GF) have been developed based on red blood cell transfusion needs and erythropoietin levels. For low-risk MDS the optimal initial therapy (GF vs nongrowth factor [NGF] therapies, including differentiation and immunomodulatory agents) based on response rates to NGF and GF and survival, has not been defined.

METHODS

A Markov decision analysis was performed on 799 low-risk MDS patients treated with either GF or NGF to determine the appropriate initial therapy. The treatment strategies analyzed included initial GF or NGF therapies, assuming 3 different states: Patients were either in the good GF predictive group (low transfusion needs and low erythropoietin levels), intermediate, or the poor GF predictive group (high transfusion needs and high erythropoietin levels).

RESULTS

In the good GF predictive group, initial therapy with GF improved survival compared with NGF therapies at 3.38 years vs 2.57 years for a typical MDS patient. The advantage of GF to NGF was lost when NGF therapies produced a response in >or=46% of patients. In the intermediate or poor GF predictive groups, NGF maximized survival, provided response rates for NGF were >14% and 4%, respectively, for each predictive group. Quality of life adjustment did not alter the preferred strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling estimates suggest that patients who fall into a good GF predictive group should almost always receive GF initially, whereas those in intermediate and poor predictive groups should almost always be treated with NGF.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of computerized tomography in the routine follow-up of patients after primary treatment for Hodgkin's disease

PURPOSE

To estimate the clinical benefits and cost effectiveness of computed tomography (CT) in the follow-up of patients with complete response (CR) after treatment for Hodgkin's disease (HD).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic model to evaluate follow-up strategies for two hypothetical cohorts of 25-year-old patients with stage I-II or stage III-IV HD, treated with doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine-based chemotherapy with or without radiation therapy, respectively. We compared three strategies for observing asymptomatic patients after CR: routine annual CT for 10 years, annual CT for 5 years, or follow-up with non-CT modalities only. We used Markov models to calculate life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and lifetime costs. Baseline probabilities, transition probabilities, and utilities were derived from published studies. Cost data were derived from the Medicare fee schedule and medical literature. We performed sensitivity analyses by varying baseline estimates.

RESULTS

Annual CT follow-up is associated with minimal survival benefit. With adjustments for quality of life, we found a decrement in quality-adjusted life expectancy for early-stage patients followed with CT compared with non-CT modalities. Sensitivity analyses showed annual CT for 5 years becomes more effective than non-CT follow-up if the specificity of CT is 80% or more or if the disutility associated with a false-positive CT result is less than 0.01 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). For advanced-stage patients, annual CT for 5 years is associated with a very small quality-adjusted survival gain over non-CT follow-up with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 9,042,300 dollars/QALY.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests that routine CT should not be used in the surveillance of asymptomatic patients in CR after treatment for HD.

Computed tomography screening for lung cancer in Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors: decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Hodgkin's lymphoma patients have an elevated risk of developing lung cancer and may be targeted for lung cancer screening. We used a decision-analytic model to estimate the potential clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer in Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We developed a Markov decision-analytic model to compare annual low-dose CT screening versus no screening in a hypothetical cohort of patients diagnosed with stage IA-IIB Hodgkin's lymphoma at age 25, with screening starting 5 years after initial diagnosis. We derived model parameters from published studies and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, and assumed that stage-shift produces a survival benefit.

RESULTS

Annual CT screening increased survival by 0.64 years for smokers and 0.16 years for non-smokers. The corresponding benefits in quality-adjusted survival were 0.58 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for smokers and 0.14 QALYs for non-smokers. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for annual CT screening compared with no screening were $34 100/QALY for smokers and $125 400/QALY for non-smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that if early promising results for lung cancer screening hold, CT screening for lung cancer may increase survival and quality-adjusted survival among Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors, with a benefit and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for smokers comparable to that of other recommended cancer screening strategies.

The role of PET imaging in lymphoma

Positron emission tomography using fluorine-18 (FDG-PET) is increasingly used in the staging and follow-up of malignant lymphomas, although its precise role has not yet been determined. This review considers the results reported at the different stages in the disease history and separately considers the major histological subtypes. Attention is given to the situations in which PET scanning is most likely to influence management. Finally, this review discusses ongoing developments in PET scanning with improved resolution and different radiolabelled tracers.

Combination chemotherapy plus low-dose involved-field radiotherapy for early clinical stage Hodgkin's lymphoma

PURPOSE

To present our long-term experience regarding the use of chemotherapy plus low-dose involved-field radiotherapy (IFRT) for clinical Stage I-IIA Hodgkin's lymphoma.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We analyzed the data of 368 patients. Of these, 66 received mechlorethamine, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (MOPP) and 302 received doxorubicin (or epirubicin), bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine [A(E)BVD]. Patients with complete remission or very good partial remission were scheduled for low-dose IFRT (< or =3200 cGy).

RESULTS

The 10-year failure-free survival (FFS) and overall survival (OS) rate was 85% and 86%, respectively. A(E)BVD-treated patients had superior 10-year FFS and OS rates compared with MOPP-treated patients (87% vs. 75%, p = 0.009; and 93% vs. 71%, p = 0.0004, respectively). Only 10 of 41 relapses had any infield (irradiated) component. Of the complete responders/very good partial responders treated with low-dose IFRT, those who received <2800 cGy had inferior FFS but similar OS as those who received 2800-3200 cGy. Adverse prognostic factors for FFS included age > or =45 years, leukocytosis > or =10 x 10(9)/L, and extranodal extension. Secondary acute leukemia developed after MOPP with or without salvage therapy (n = 6) or after ABVD plus salvage therapy (n = 2). None of the nine secondary solid tumors developed within the RT fields.

CONCLUSION

IFRT at a dose of 2800-3000 cGy is highly effective in clinical Stage I-IIA HL patients who achieved a complete response or very good partial response with A(E)BVD. The long-term toxicity with respect to secondary malignancies appears to be acceptable.

Bystander cells and prognosis in Hodgkin lymphoma. Review based on a doctoral thesis

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is characterised histologically by a minority of malignant Hodgkin and Reed-Sternberg (HRS) cells surrounded by benign cells, and clinically by a relatively good prognosis. The treatment, however, leads to a risk of serious side effects. Knowledge about the biology of the disease, particularly the interaction between the HRS cells and the surrounding cells, is essential in order to improve diagnosis and treatment. HL patients with abundant eosinophils in the tumours have a poor prognosis, therefore the eosinophil derived protein eosinophil cationic protein (ECP) was studied. Serum-ECP (S-ECP) was elevated in most HL patients. It correlated to number of tumour eosinophils, nodular sclerosis (NS) histology, and the negative prognostic factors high erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and blood leukocyte count (WBC). A polymorphism in the ECP gene (434(G>C)) was identified and the 434GG genotype correlated to NS histology and high ESR. The poor prognosis in patients with abundant eosinophils in the tumours has been proposed to depend on HRS cell stimulation by the eosinophils via a CD30 ligand (CD30L)-CD30 interaction. However, CD30L mRNA and protein were detected in mast cells and the predominant CD30L expressing cell in HL is the mast cell. Mast cells were shown to stimulate HRS cell lines via CD30L-CD30 interaction. The number of mast cells in HL tumours correlated to worse relapse-free survival, NS histology, high WBC, and low blood haemoglobin. Survival in patients with early and intermediate stage HL, diagnosed between 1985 and 1992, was generally favourable and comparatively limited treatment was sufficient to produce acceptable results for most stages. The majority of relapses could be salvaged. Patients treated with a short course of chemotherapy and radiotherapy had an excellent outcome. In conclusion prognosis is favourable in early and intermediate stages and there are possibilities for further improvements based on the fact that mast cells and eosinophils affect the biology and prognosis of HL.

A comparison of diet and exercise therapy versus laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery for morbid obesity: a decision analysis model

BACKGROUND

In the absence of randomized controlled trials that directly compare medical versus surgical treatment of morbid obesity, decision analysis is a useful tool to help determine the optimal treatment strategy. Using decision analysis we simulated a trial comparing diet and exercise therapy to laparoscopic gastric bypass surgery to determine which approach resulted in longer life expectancy.

STUDY DESIGN

A Markov decision analysis model was constructed to evaluate survival after laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery compared with a diet and exercise program for a 45-year-old woman with a body mass index (BMI) of 40 kg/m(2). Baseline mortality data were derived from published tables of vital statistics, and the relative risks of death associated with obesity (relative to normal weight) were taken from epidemiologic studies. We assumed that successful surgery resulted in a reduction of BMI to 30 kg/m(2). The baseline assumptions were: an operative mortality of 0.4%; a probability of weight loss after surgery of 80%; a rate of weight loss on a diet and exercise program, 20% at two years; a rate of regain of lost weight, 95% at two years; a relative risk of death for a BMI of 40 kg/m(2), 2.70; and a relative risk of death for a BMI of 30 kg/m(2), 1.51.

RESULTS

The undiscounted life expectancy after surgery was 69.7 years compared with 67.3 years for a diet and exercise program (an absolute increase in life expectancy of 2.4 years, a relative increase in life expectancy of 10.8%). Sensitivity analyses assumed discounting at 5%/y, and showed that surgery was associated with a longer expectation of life when the risk of operative mortality was less than 10%, and when the probability of weight loss after surgery was greater than 4%.

CONCLUSIONS

In a decision analysis model, laparoscopic gastric bypass surgery for morbid obesity was associated with a substantially longer survival than diet and exercise therapy.

Phase III randomized intergroup trial of subtotal lymphoid irradiation versus doxorubicin, vinblastine, and subtotal lymphoid irradiation for stage IA to IIA Hodgkin's disease

PURPOSE

The management of early-stage Hodgkin's disease in the United States is controversial. To evaluate whether staging laparotomy could be safely avoided in early-stage Hodgkin's disease and whether chemotherapy should be a part of the treatment of nonlaparotomy staged patients, a phase III intergroup trial was performed.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Three hundred forty-eight patients with clinical stage IA to IIA supradiaphragmatic Hodgkin's disease were randomized without staging laparotomy to treatment with either subtotal lymphoid irradiation (STLI) or combined-modality therapy (CMT) consisting of three cycles of doxorubicin and vinblastine followed by STLI.

RESULTS

The study was closed at the second, planned, interim analysis because of a markedly superior failure-free survival (FFS) rate for patients on the CMT arm (94%) compared with the STLI arm (81%). With a median follow-up of 3.3 years, 10 patients have experienced relapse or died on the chemoradiotherapy arm, compared with 34 on the radiotherapy arm (P <.001). Few deaths have occurred on either arm (three deaths on CMT and seven deaths on STLI). Treatment was well tolerated, with only one death on each arm attributed to treatment.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate that it is possible to obtain a high FFS rate in a large group of stage IA to IIA patients without performing staging laparotomy and that three cycles of chemotherapy plus STLI provide a superior FFS compared with STLI alone. Extended follow-up is necessary to assess freedom from second relapse, overall survival, late toxicities, patterns of treatment failure, and quality of life.

Costs and effectiveness of staging and treatment options in early-stage Hodgkin's disease

PURPOSE

Using a cost-effectiveness analysis, to weigh the costs and benefits of the different staging and treatment options in early-stage Hodgkin's disease.

METHODS

We constructed a decision-analytic model for a hypothetical cohort of 25-year-old patients with early-stage Hodgkin's disease. Markov models were used to simulate the lifetime costs and prognosis of each staging and treatment strategy. Baseline probabilities and cost estimates were derived from published studies and bills of relevant patient cohorts.

RESULTS

Among the six management strategies considered, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of laparotomy and tailored treatment compared with mantle and para-aortic-splenic radiation therapy in all clinical stage I-II patients was $24,100/quality-adjusted life year, while that of the strategy of combined modality therapy in all clinical stage I-II patients compared with laparotomy was $61,700/quality-adjusted life year. All the remaining strategies were dominated by one of these three strategies. Sensitivity analysis showed that the cost-effectiveness ratios were driven predominantly by the effectiveness rather than the cost of each strategy. In particular, the analysis was heavily influenced by the utility of the post-laparotomy health state.

CONCLUSIONS

In considering the various alternative management strategies in early-stage Hodgkin's disease, even very small gains in effectiveness were enough to justify the additional costs of more expensive treatment options.

Simulation modeling of outcomes and cost effectiveness

Modeling will continue to be used to address important issues in clinical practice and health policy issues that have not been adequately studied with high-quality clinical trials. The apparent ad hoc nature of models belies the methodologic rigor that is applied to create the best models in cancer prevention and care. Models have progressed from simple decision trees to extremely complex microsimulation analyses, yet all are built using a logical process based on objective evaluation of the path between intervention and outcome. The best modelers take great care to justify both the structure and content of the model and then test their assumptions using a comprehensive process of sensitivity analysis and model validation. Like clinical trials, models sometimes produce results that are later found to be invalid as other data become available. When weighing the value of models in health care decision making, it is reasonable to consider the alternatives. In the absence of data, clinical policy decisions are often based on the recommendations of expert opinion panels or on poorly defined notions of the standard of care or medical necessity. Because such decision making rarely entails the rigorous process of data collection, synthesis, and testing that is the core of well-conducted modeling, it is usually not possible for external audiences to examine the assumptions and data that were used to derive the decisions. One of the modeler's most challenging tasks is to make the structure and content of the model transparent to the intended audience. The purpose of this article is to clarify the process of modeling, so that readers of models are more knowledgeable about their uses, strengths, and limitations.

Decision analysis on alternative treatment strategies for favorable-prognosis, early-stage Hodgkin's disease

PURPOSE

To compare the therapeutic outcomes of various treatment strategies in early-stage, favorable-prognosis Hodgkin's disease (HD) using methods of decision analysis.

METHODS

We constructed a decision-analytic model to determine the life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy for a hypothetical cohort of clinically or pathologically staged 25-year-old patients with early-stage, favorable-prognosis HD treated with varying degrees of initial therapy. Markov models were used to simulate the lifetime clinical course of patients, and baseline probability estimates were derived from published study results.

RESULTS

Among patients with pathologic stage (PS) I to II, mantle and para-aortic (MPA) radiotherapy was favored over combined-modality therapy (CMT), mantle radiotherapy, and chemotherapy by 1.18, 1.33, and 1.55 years, respectively. For patients with clinical stage (CS) I to II, the treatment options of MPA-splenic radiotherapy, CMT, and chemotherapy yielded similar survival outcomes. Sensitivity analysis showed that the decision between CMT and MPA-splenic radiotherapy was highly influenced by the precise values of the estimates of treatment efficacy and long-term morbidity, the quality-of-life value assigned to the postsplenic irradiation state, and the time discount value used in the model. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that even if future studies doubled the precision of the estimates of the treatment-related variables, it would be impossible to demonstrate the superiority of one treatment over the other.

CONCLUSION

Our model predicted that on average, MPA radiotherapy was clearly the preferred treatment for PS I to II patients. For CS I to II patients the treatment decision is a toss-up between MPA-splenic radiotherapy and CMT, emphasizing the importance of patient preference exploration and shared decision making between patient and physician when choosing between treatments.